Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[Snowy L]

Not too much change on the GFS so far. Low pressure slightly weaker and the warm sector very slightly further south at t96. Looks like we may be sacrificing the heavier ppn for a greater chance of the ppn being snow, which I'm happy with.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Snowy L

[nick sussex]

Anyone link to the ecm stamps please

Also, how are the current stats looking for the para at day 5?

Here you go:

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa%21168%21pop%21od%21enfo%21enplot%212009112700%21%21

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/12Z/

 

BA that's only the stamps though to day 5.

Edited January 15, 2015 by nick sussex

[Downpour]

The games begin on Saturday

 

 

Snow for the north and south if the GFS is correct.

Those charts actually show mostly rain for the south.

[SMU]

& yes- the GFS has jogged SW - lower heights & lower 850sahead in the South SW & SE  is good news.

 

Will we see the SE 'pixel' in the PPN belt be snow on this run.....

S

Edited January 15, 2015 by Steve Murr

[shaky]

Looks to me as though gfs is further west again!!

[dec10snow]

Sorry, bit confused and just need explanation.I thought way GEM would be good for virtually all UK.Could you just explain "flabby low" and warm sectors as trying to get to grips with these terms.

 

Thanks

The 'flabby low' I feel is probably better explained as elongated, so as others have said previously, we don't want a deep, circular low pressure system, you want a shallower, more oval shape one.

I think anyway, sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong!

[Biensie]

You guys in the south want a shallow, flabby and slow moving low.

[nick sussex]

OMG the GFS is weaker with that low and better upstream at T108hrs.

[Snowy L]

Dew points and surface temps look very marginal for South of the M4, particularly true the further West you go. However towards the Southeast conditions may be ok for snow.

Edited January 15, 2015 by Snowy L

[shaky]

There we go gfs backtracks !! Flabbier low and further west!! Now onto the ukmo! !

[karlos1983]

Much better ridging in the Atlantic 

[Barry12]

Better ridging towards Greenland, with the low further south at 120 hours

 

 

p.s hello dec10!

[Dr. Astro]

This run is better for the South, but less so for NW & Central areas.

 

No doubt it will change again though in due time.

 

Decent run up to now, better upstream already.

[Due South]

You guys in the south want a shallow, flabby and slow moving low.

That's OK I live with one!

[Mucka]

What may be missed while we concentrate on the snowline is the bigger picture. Stronger heights to the NE and decent amplification to the West suggests better longevity of any cold

 

[SMU]

& all of sudden the GFs is nearly ALL snow-
 
However a word of warning, We have been here before & in the end the PPN doesn't get east of the midlands & counties like Berkshire...
 
UKMO 96 is deep surface cold & possible snow in the NE - Slider way west....
 
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011512/UN96-21.GIF?15-17
 
S

[shaky]

Anybody post the precipitation charts so we can see where the snowline is? Cant do it off me phone for some reason!!

[karlos1983]

UKMO at 120

Vs GFS @ 120

Edited January 15, 2015 by karlos1983

[Downpour]

Snow on 12z GFS anywhere north of say Slough and east of maybe the Welsh border. SW quadrant a wintry mix, hill snow 

[polar vortex]

Stella run coming I feel. lol from t114 to t138 and still snow from the midlands south. Wish I could believe that. This run may give the 18z

last night a run for its money with regards to the easterly as the 12z today has the cold much further westward already at t138.

[Hotspur62]

Crikey upto 862 Readers already getting ever closer to 1K.Amazing what a good start the gfs does lol(Sorry couldn't resist)

[SMU]

Wow look at the UKMO

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011512/UN120-21.GIF?15-17

the slider isn't even a closed low.... PPN wont get very far east- but the deep cold is there over England...

 

Upgrade for snow probabilities sun eve

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2015011512/UN72-21.GIF?15-17

 

 

 

S

[karlos1983]

UKMO @144 dropping South East and filling!

[Winter Cold]

Very much enjoying this latest GFS run. Fantastic synoptics so far. Perfect strength low, good heights above in Scandy and some big WAA up towards Greenland. Nothing not to like so far!

 

 

This is going to be one GREAT cold spell!

[Mair Snaw]

UKMO at 120

Vs GFS @ 120

Am I right in thinking the GFS is looking better??? if im wrong could somebody explain for me please??

Edited January 15, 2015 by bigsnow