Model Output Discussion - 14th Jan 12z Onwards

[reef]

A new thread for discussing the models. As things are getting interesting and its getting quite busy, please take a moment to consider where your post should be.

 

For comments like 'Great run', 'boom' etc theres the model banter thread:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81281-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-autumnwinter-201415/

 

For 'Will it snow in...' questions and local discussion there's the regional threads:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/142-regional-discussions/

 

If the cold spell does make it to T+0, there's snow reports:

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/forum/26-snow-reports/

 

Happy hunting!
 

Edited January 14, 2015 by reef

[Eugene]

So after a brief stormy interlude it looks 99% certain the UK will slide into winter proper through this weekend and beyond.

Given that details are impossible due to the complex nature of the pattern I will concentrate more on the basic set up.

The original Easterly with toppling Atlantic ridge joining with heights to NE has pretty much been scrapped in favour of a cold trough and low pressure repeatedly sliding across the UK.

Cold or very cold with a second Atlantic ridge and any East NE flow likely the result of sinking low pressure in this period.

Snow could be widespread at times and fall just about anywhere but any snow forecast will be dependent on the behaviour and character of the sliders, how far West, how full, S or SE track etc but what we do know is there will very likely be one or two bouts of more widespread ppn which will almost certainly fall as sleet or snow even to low levels although the SW and far W could see more of a wintry mix of rain/sleet/snow but details...

 

The cold looks likely to last to at least 22/23rd Jan whereafter the pattern will be determined by what happens with the Second Atlantic ridge.

We could get a repeat pattern setting up which would give the UK a rare prolonged cold snowy spell or it could topple favorably giving an Easterly as was originally modelled for upcoming spell or it could flatten into Europe with the jet over the top bringing back more typical zonal conditions. The last option is highly favoured in ensemble output at the moment but but as others have pointed out, let's get the cold in and worry about FI later. Also we have seen that proper cold spells have a tendancy to get stretched out further than models predict.

 

I think we will all be grateful and happy with a 6-8 day 6-8 week cold spell anyway given how many times this Winter has been written off by overly frustrated coldies.

 

The cold zonal leading into this weekend has been a bit disappointing for myself though I have seen snow fall at least. The upcomming spell promises whole different kettle of fish.

Happy days!

 

 

Good post that needs to be put here in this new model thread, just corrected what most of us want.

Edited January 14, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
Sorry, somehow hit the edit button by mistake

[IDO]

I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

[bluearmy]

I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

I think it will be around 30 Mins later than the old op used to be.

Guess we'll find out soon enough.

[Nick L]

I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

 

Untrue. It's arriving on Wetterzentrale.

[Winter Cold]

Good post from Mucka there Im glad everyone is seemingly confident, or as confident as we can be of a cold spell, seeing as its still just outside of the reliable i think? Good enough agreement in the models though and the earlier update from Ian F in the last thread helps a lot as its a bonus to have METO now coming onboard.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Summer Sun]

I have heard that the GFS won't be ready till 5pm. Not sure if that is true though?

 

Updating on wetterzentral as we speak

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html

 

 

EDIT

 

meteociel now updating as well

 

http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfse_cartes.php&act=url

Edited January 14, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Beano]

Regarding ecm data, find this link prety good
 

www.wunderground.com/wundermap

Click on data then settings, choose ecm then which ever chart you need, has snowfall option though doubt its accuracy

Sorry not hyperlink, on phone and cant work it out

Edited January 14, 2015 by Nick L
Hyperlink added :)

[IDO]

Updating on wetterzentral as we speak

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsgfseur.html

 

 

Cheers just started on Meteociel and looking good so far 

[gottolovethisweather]

Untrue. It's arriving on Wetterzentrale.

 

Well spotted, I've got it running on meteociel and that is some windstorm up North (945hpa give or take at t+18hrs). Whilst eyes are firmly on future developments, let us not forget the more immediate events and hope and trust that everybody stays safe in the affected region. 

Edited January 14, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Pembroke Dangler]

It's such a similar set up to January 2013 it's uncanny and from what I can remember these types of synopsis have a starting point to Far East and then all of a sudden closer to the event you get westward corrections! Imby we did well the last time this happened! Anyone else think this is something that could happen again?

[Paul]

The new GFS is coming in fine currently, but for this run only it'll only be visible on the viewers here on Netweather once the run has completed. The 18z and beyond will load as normal. 

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Neilsouth]

BBC Forecasts going for coldest spell in two years? Possibly following the models then

[warrenb]

I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

[Dr. Astro]

I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

 

While it's technically model related, there is already a dedicated thread for it here: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82219-atlantic-storm-14th-15th-january/page-29#entry3118030

 

With 587 comments.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[starstream]

In defence of the mod thread,it never operates in the 'now ' it's always days ahead of current weather, the regionals will be where talk of the storm is likely to be,or the thread dedicated to storms.

[gottolovethisweather]

I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

 

See here, https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82281-model-output-discussion-14th-jan-12z-onwards/?p=3118171

 

Nothing wrong with focussing on all that is on offer in this wonderful British climate of ours, anyhow. I also noted that we do seem to forget what's happening under our very noses sometimes though. Anyway guys n gals, where are your updates, complete with beautiful charts and wondrous analysis. 

Edited January 14, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

That feature still there on the GFS P, snow spreading se and better upstream at T96hrs. A good start so far, long may it continue!

[Mucka]

Well I suppose the first area of interest as far as cold spell is concerned will the embedded trough in the NW flow. (Steve M talked about this I think a couple of times)

 

 

Could bring a band of sleet and snow South across the breadth of the country on Sunday.

 

Edit

Nick got there first.

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[mountain shadow]

It's not the P anymore Nick. Its the GFS.

[nick sussex]

It's not the P anymore Nick. Its the GFS.

Yes its weird getting used to that, its a shame they couldn't keep both going then we'd have more to talk about! lol

[Mucka]

First slider snow possibilities

 

 

850's not that cold but surface temps very chilly.

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Mucka

[Summer Sun]

Snow for the SE on Saturday if GFS is correct

 

 

Maybe some more widespread snow Monday as a band of rain moves in from the west and hits the colder air

 

 

After a long wait the wait for a cold snowy spell could be over by early next week

[Dr. Astro]

Good to see the GFS keeping that nice little feature... Someone will get a dumping from that.

 

 

 

So far so good, maybe a little better at the moment.

 

Edit: Get your shovels out:

 

Edited January 14, 2015 by Dr. Astro

[Man With Beard]

I love the fact everybody is so fixated on cold weather, there isn't a single comment about the 75+mph storm going to hit tonight.

Well, I am, it looks bad.

Having taken the brunt of the storms last year, I'm not actually that worried. The winds speeds have downgraded somewhat for the coasts and is now not really much to speak about inland. The only place I'd be keeping a close eye on is Northern Ireland and the Western Isles. 90 mph gusts not far away, a little change in track there and I'd be worrying. But not here. 70mph won't disrupt much in the middle of the night. We were often above 80mph last year.