North West England - Weather Chat

[Day 10]

I'll be watching the rain/sleet passing thru these parts wishing it well in its transition to snow further inland LOL :-)

Argh don't that's a terrible thought!!

It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter.

 

We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type:

6.png

 

The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints:

5.png

 

Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong! 

7.png

 

 

We see the Irish Sea coming to life on Wednesday too with showers piling into many northern parts of the region, although it's not awful indicative of many showers south of Southport, the flow is far too westerly, so I have an awful feeling that the south of the region are going to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome, Manchester as usual looks to be the prime location, places like Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, all in the firing line I'd imagine.

 

This was about the best chart I could find for PPN for us all, isn't great. But as I say, the NMM is never good with PPN I find, and it's certainly a case of now-casting as usual. But all in all, it's looking like a rather disappointing spell of snowy weather for us in the south. Further north, enjoy!

8.png

 

I was going to post more, but I can't for the life of me be bothered hahaha

Cheers Backtrack for taking the time there

[Cheese Rice]

It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter.

 

We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type:

6.png

 

The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints:

5.png

 

Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong! 

7.png

 

 

I've looked though the 12z NMM 5km and it's showing mostly rain for NW England unless inland. Do you think perhaps there's an underestimation of the warming effect from the Irish sea essentially cancelling out the cold uppers?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=72&mode=42&map=5

[Backtrack]

I personally think you'll be ok in terms of actual precipitation Jord because as long as there's some NW element to the wind, runcorn will be exposed. South of about Frodsham/Northwich we can forget it. Trouble is, as soon as winds veer NW enough, we get the moderated uppers.

 

The NMM remains bullish about any PPN this far south really, but it's always the same, it's a poor model for PPN I find, but I'm also bullish about this one, especially with the Met Office agreeing. Typical as you say, soon as a more northerly element is added to the flow, we see a warm sector filter down. Spells out disappointment for me.

[NickyB]

Oh woe is me (us) :-)

[Backtrack]

I've looked though the 12z NMM 5km and it's showing mostly rain for NW England unless inland. Do you think perhaps there's an underestimation of the warming effect from the Irish sea essentially cancelling out the cold uppers?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=72&mode=42&map=5

 

No, the uppers aren't the problem, they're smashing. The problem as we saw last week is a warm sector sitting below 850hPa, it's this that causes the wintryness to be limited to further inland, but I can't see there been THAT much of a problem this time, the uppers are even lower. Rain for coasts though, I suspect. East of say Warrington should be golden.

Edited January 26, 2015 by Backtrack

[Cheese Rice]

No, the uppers aren't the problem, they're smashing. The problem as we saw last week is a warm sector sitting below 850hPa, it's this that causes the wintryness to be limited further inland, but I can't see there been THAT much of a problem this time, the uppers are even lower. Rain for coasts though, I suspect. East of say Warrington should be golden.

Okay thankyou I never look below the 850hpa level so interesting to see where you are coming from.

:-)

[Cheshire Freeze]

The S Manchester shower train is the most annoying thing I've ever witnessed and I never even knew it existed until December 2009. NWly airflow used to be true NWly airflows.

[chiffer]

im confident ill see some snow here, I like this set up far too much

[Backtrack]

Okay thankyou I never look below the 850hpa level so interesting to see where you are coming from.

:-)

 

The bane of living closer to the coast with above average SST's, ahhhh

The S Manchester shower train is the most annoying thing I've ever witnessed and I never even knew it existed until December 2009. NWly airflow used to be true NWly airflows.

 

The amount of snow Manchester gets vs us is just plain annoying!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The S Manchester shower train is the most annoying thing I've ever witnessed and I never even knew it existed until December 2009. NWly airflow used to be true NWly airflows.

 

Ay, Stockport damn it around 20cms snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Ay, Stockport damn it around 20cms snow

Nothing has ever made me want to punch my laptop screen through more than watching the radar THAT night. Oh and then it repeated about 2 weeks later and then again the next winter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Nothing has ever made me want to punch my laptop screen through more than watching the radar THAT night. Oh and then it repeated about 2 weeks later and then again the next winter.

 

Ay Stockport 20cms again Tue 5th Jan, at least I had some that day though, around 6cms

[Day 10]

The S Manchester shower train is the most annoying thing I've ever witnessed and I never even knew it existed until December 2009. NWly airflow used to be true NWly airflows.

This would do us just fine

[Joe Bloggs]

Nothing has ever made me want to punch my laptop screen through more than watching the radar THAT night. Oh and then it repeated about 2 weeks later and then again the next winter.

Errm excuse me south Manchester is due a good dump of snow thank you very much!!! ;-)

Current thoughts for here in south Manchester:

Rain showers turning to snow overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frequent heavy showers with accumulations likely. Turning to rain by Thursday lunchtime.

Cold enough for snow again Thursday night with the potential for ice issues!

A messy setup but some proper interest at last :-).

[Cheshire Freeze]

Errm excuse me south Manchester is due a good dump of snow thank you very much!!! ;-)

Current thoughts for here in south Manchester:

Rain showers turning to snow overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Frequent heavy showers with accumulations likely. Turning to rain by Thursday lunchtime.

Cold enough for snow again Thursday night with the potential for ice issues!

A messy setup but some proper interest at last :-).

Not as due as here! I've never even seen more than 10cm accumulated...ever.

[davacr123]

Hope we can get what has hit New York

[gearbox100]

Weather forecasts seem to be going backward these days. That northwest BBC forecast in my view was so vague. The only info given was its going to be Cold and wet and a snow warning that was sketched over.

[pip22]

Hope we can get what has hit New York

Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:

 

http://www.weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live?pl=pl-winter-storm-juno

 

At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.

Edited January 26, 2015 by pip22

[Day 10]

Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:

 

http://www.weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live?pl=pl-winter-storm-juno

 

At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.

Nice one, oh we can but dream

[Day 10]

Heres the live coverage of Winter storm Juno hitting NY:

 

http://www.weather.com/tv/the-weather-channel-live/video/watch-the-weather-channel-live?pl=pl-winter-storm-juno

 

At least you don't have to wait until Wed to watch snow falling.

They even get a starter before the main course!!

[Miamay]

I have my fingers crossed for some snow and not just sleet

[shelly 73]

METO - Here we go again - marginal for the Fylde and coast.

............A cold and increasingly showery northwesterly flow is expected to develop during Wednesday

and last through Thursday. Accumulating snow is likely away from windward coastal districts,

especially overnight, with 2-5 cm locally at low levels. Higher ground, above about 150 m,

could see in excess of 10 cm. Strong and gusty winds will likely accompany snow showers,

and lead to significantly reduced visibility at times.........

And borderline too

 

2015-1-28.jpg

 

Ian

 

 

 

 

Agree.

 

Appleby is very nice though.......

 

....You are quite lucky.

 

Ian

Thanks we are in a village outside of appleby. It's a lovely place. With only a few people here in the winter. I wouldn't swap it just need to swap my car. I really look forward to everyone's views and opinions on this site regarding the weather. My husband thinks we are all sad following what the weather might or might not do..

[feb1991blizzard]

I have my fingers crossed for some snow and not just sleet

 

Could be even worse yet, you might get rain!

[Daniel*]

Could be even worse yet, you might get rain!

Sleet is rain to me does bugger all.

[feb1991blizzard]

Sleet is rain to me does bugger all.

 

Yes although the composition of the flake and / or the ratio of rain drops to snow flakes can make all the difference when you already have a covering wrt preserving it, specifically when the band is nearly exhausted and clear skies and a frosty night is forthcoming.

 

 

Although my last post was in jest just a word of warning, I doubt this is going to be an all snow event here in the Pennines at 600ft, so people on the coast need to be realistic with expectations.

Edited January 26, 2015 by feb1991blizzard