North West England - Weather Chat

[captaincroc]

Any potential 'streamer' looks like it may align too far N for us anyway Ben. Wind vectors aren't progged to be NW enough, more WNW which will send most of the showers into S Manchester, N Cheshire etc etc. Seen it many times before unfortunately. We really do need a straight NW'ly here...as rare as hens teeth in recent years.

You're right, that was my concern, but at least north Cheshire should be in the firing line, it won't take much shift to deliver for us too.  

 

Though some computer forecasts have showers down the Cheshire Gap (in the MO thread), so fingers crossed.

Edited January 26, 2015 by captaincroc

[Troubleatmill]

Oi the most snowless place in the UK is Preston I drive from Preston to Carnforth for work and believe it or not Lancaster gets more snow than Preston !! that dumping you talk of in 2012/13 gave us a wide berth.

 

But yes you are right, west of the M6 is poor for snow.  

 

Yep second that, uncle in over kellet, and quite a few occasions where they snow up there and nowt down here. Crikey my mum and dad live in Garstang and have called on occasions to say its snowing up there (like I really wanted top know lol)

 

that being said Lancaster is still god awful for snow! think its anywhere on the Lancashire plain or like you say west of the M6.

 

Worst of all is the amount of times snow has moved up the country and stopped at Southport!!!!!!! WTF?  or is that just me seeing that often?!

[dodge]

I think snow showers could crop up almost anywhere once the bitter airstream get's established aided by the Irish Sea.  Even today in Oldham TC the winds were noticeable and took the edge of the temps, it's going to be fun on Thursday with the wind chill effect.  My Russian-like hat could be tempted out of the drawer.

Edited January 26, 2015 by dodgeredee

[Spah1]

Unbelievable!

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/30989760

[Backtrack]

I'll be posting my analysis before around 6pm using the NMM short & medium range

[Cheshire Freeze]

You're right, that was my concern, but at least north Cheshire should be in the firing line, it won't take much shift to deliver for us too.  

 

Though some computer forecasts have showers down the Cheshire Gap (in the MO thread), so fingers crossed.

As much as it pains me to say it this could be a memorable event for the likes of Stockport, Manchester, Macclesfield etc etc. Anywhere exposed to the shower train will get a tonking as it stands. Yes we may see a couple of showers down here but the most meaningful troughs are associated with milder uppers. If I lived in or around S Manchester I'd be very very happy as things stand.

[Mokidugway]

Internet is crap here , enjoy your snow , little chance here it's 24c !!!!... Time for a beer .

Edited January 26, 2015 by Mokidugway

[chicken soup]

As much as it pains me to say it this could be a memorable event for the likes of Stockport, Manchester, Macclesfield etc etc. Anywhere exposed to the shower train will get a tonking as it stands. Yes we may see a couple of showers down here but the most meaningful troughs are associated with milder uppers. If I lived in or around S Manchester I'd be very very happy as things stand.

We in blackburn tend to do well in this type of set up...i expect things will be changing by the time wed comes anyway.

[Weather-history]

[Day 10]

I still think from these charts and looking through the 12z runs so far that the warning zone still has time to expand a little further south. I think the coast can see snow showers, whether they accumulate or not is up for debate. Wednesday night will be the best chance.

 

Some places inland are going to get plastered though. And even if some do miss out there will still be other chances I feel.

 

 

[Day 10]

Yep could be for me too, one thing that get me though is that dew points are below zero which from a westerly/north westerly is prety rare.

 

Probably the same for you as it is for me in that its the dew points that always kill it for us? so i'm far more hopeful than last week, things went as said from the met office and our dew points were around zero to +1, until the winds veered that is.

 

850-1000's look good too

 

Just want to see a covering, not even bothered if it melts when the warmer sector moves through on Saturday, just want to see a covering for a few hours lol!   

Me too mate, it's all about just getting that snow fix however little lol

[pip22]

The weather warning has actually extended to the Midlands now:

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167#extra-uk-content

[chiffer]

It will be extended further south for sure, some ambers will be thrown in too. I expect the wind will be NW rather wnw.

[DemonDaz]

Internet is crap here , enjoy your snow , little chance here it's 24c !!!!... Time for a beer .

Kick that hamster running the Internet and enjoy the beer

[SparkleS]

Lol 8 degreess and lightening for us in wedsnesday apparently! With s sleet shower on thursday http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644547

I never take notice of bbc weather, not the symbols anyway, always a waste of time. It shows rain showers but mentions snow in the write up.

[itsnowjoke]

Internet is crap here , enjoy your snow , little chance here it's 24c !!!!... Time for a beer .

enjoy

[Day 10]

Lol 8 degreess and lightening for us in wedsnesday apparently! With s sleet shower on thursday http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2644547

I never take notice of bbc weather, not the symbols anyway, always a waste of time. It shows rain showers but mentions snow in the write up.

Just wish the uk was 200 miles further north then we'd all be happy!

[Iceaxecrampon]

Yep second that, uncle in over kellet, and quite a few occasions where they snow up there and nowt down here. Crikey my mum and dad live in Garstang and have called on occasions to say its snowing up there (like I really wanted top know lol)

 

that being said Lancaster is still god awful for snow! think its anywhere on the Lancashire plain or like you say west of the M6.

 

Worst of all is the amount of times snow has moved up the country and stopped at Southport!!!!!!! WTF?  or is that just me seeing that often?!

 

Totally agree - i'm in Salwick it's either freezing rain or drizzle.

 

Ian

[Liam J]

Look at the 850 temps from the Euro4, not marginal! It will be very cold with snow showers come Wednesday afternoon

 

[Backtrack]

It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter.

 

We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type:

 

The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints:

 

Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong! 

 

 

We see the Irish Sea coming to life on Wednesday too with showers piling into many northern parts of the region, although it's not awful indicative of many showers south of Southport, the flow is far too westerly, so I have an awful feeling that the south of the region are going to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome, Manchester as usual looks to be the prime location, places like Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, all in the firing line I'd imagine.

 

This was about the best chart I could find for PPN for us all, isn't great. But as I say, the NMM is never good with PPN I find, and it's certainly a case of now-casting as usual. But all in all, it's looking like a rather disappointing spell of snowy weather for us in the south. Further north, enjoy!

 

I was going to post more, but I can't for the life of me be bothered hahaha

 

[chiffer]

Look at the 850 temps from the Euro4, not marginal! It will be very cold with snow showers come Wednesday afternoon

euro41.gif

It's nice to see a few things coming together to give a bit more certainty, met office are quite confident. I'm slowly getting there now

[gearbox100]

I wouldn't worry st helens won't see any snow. My plan is to have a trip to Manchester with my sledge.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Stockport are in for an absolute snowfest! told someone I know today, that their relatives are going to get a massive snowfest, meaning schools closed thursday

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's become apparent that the UK will be seeing a spell of prolonged colder than average weather, with North West England heavily in the firing line for the first two days at least, and then with further opportunities thereafter.

We start off with a very active cold front sweeping south eastwards on Wednesday morning, clearing most of the region just after dinner. What I find unusual is how quickly the colder air catches up. The GFS is suggesting widespread sleet and snow as early as lunchtime as the front clears through, I don't think this will be the case with surface temperatures sitting around 6-10C, whilst it can snow at 6C, I think it's very unlikely in this case, but as the colder air sinks in (which it will do so quickly) it'll turn readily to snow on the back edge for some, especially over higher ground, this is demonstrated nicely here on the NMM, although I'm a little skeptical to the extent earlier on as I feel the NMM is mis-modelling the precip type:

6.png

The reasons behind this, are the dewpoints:

5.png

Surface temperatures look OK, although we'll struggle to see any evaportative cooling with the winds this strong!

7.png

We see the Irish Sea coming to life on Wednesday too with showers piling into many northern parts of the region, although it's not awful indicative of many showers south of Southport, the flow is far too westerly, so I have an awful feeling that the south of the region are going to be bitterly disappointed with the outcome, Manchester as usual looks to be the prime location, places like Sheffield, Leeds, Bradford, all in the firing line I'd imagine.

This was about the best chart I could find for PPN for us all, isn't great. But as I say, the NMM is never good with PPN I find, and it's certainly a case of now-casting as usual. But all in all, it's looking like a rather disappointing spell of snowy weather for us in the south. Further north, enjoy!

8.png

I was going to post more, but I can't for the life of me be bothered hahaha

I personally think you'll be ok in terms of actual precipitation Jord because as long as there's some NW element to the wind, runcorn will be exposed. South of about Frodsham/Northwich we can forget it. Trouble is, as soon as winds veer NW enough, we get the moderated uppers.

I've been trying to explain to a non weather enthusiast mate (who used to live in Stockport funnily enough), why the wind direction for wed night is all wrong for snow in Crewe. He replies 'you never know'. In this scenario, I know all too well!

Edited January 26, 2015 by CreweCold

[NickyB]

I'll be watching the rain/sleet passing thru these parts wishing it well in its transition to snow further inland LOL :-)