Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Winter Cold]

Well im still flying the cold flag!! GFS 'mild' doesnt last long on the 12z run. Following on from SS post above, it then goes on to show a lovely cold plunge into early March. Could tie in with fergies comments above for a below average start to March:

 

 

(highly unlikely to verify of course, but this is my birthday   fingers crossed!)

[Milhouse]

Will be interesting to see if the ECM 12z brings forward the start of a more settled spell just like the GFS 12z just has. This mornings ECM mean had winds veering more westerly later on so more in the way of early Spring mildness if it were to verify.

 

This would feel pleasantly Springlike in fairly light winds

 

[J10]

Latest Ski Blog and GFS chart analysis

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4875-alps-weather-forecast-20-february-2015/

 

Further snow expected this week

Edited February 20, 2015 by J10

[Frosty.]

Plenty of cold weather on tonight's Ecm 12z, here are the highlights. During the next week or so there are several incursions of 522 / 528 dam thicknesses so I'm thinking there will be some snow around and not just on the Scottish mountains either as well as ice and frosty nights. Even by the end of the run it still looks unsettled with power to add.

[Eugene]

Will be interesting to see if the ECM 12z brings forward the start of a more settled spell just like the GFS 12z just has. This mornings ECM mean had winds veering more westerly later on so more in the way of early Spring mildness if it were to verify.

 

This would feel pleasantly Springlike in fairly light winds

 

 

 

Got any thoughts on the rest of the run Milhouse and other model output, i would be very interested to hear them.

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS, and as per recent runs very little sign of Northern Blocking. The signal for the PV to regroup and centre close to its perennial home is evident again:

 

 

It is hard to ignore the implications that despite the hype for a blocked late Winter pattern, this is very unlikely to now materialise. Looking at Dr Cohen's latest blog and he is confident of a strong positive AO from week 2-4 and a positive AO at the end of March into April. This translates to a "quasi-zonal" setup with average to mild temps for NW Europe:

 

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

In the next 7 days we have a changeable outlook in the south, with mainly average temps, some rain and some drier periods; forgettable:

 

[Snowy L]

Bring on next Sunday

 

[Milhouse]

GEFS 12z mean has higher pressure attempting to ridge up from the south around the turn of the month. But the general pattern for the next 10-15 days remains a changeable one with no clear signal either way. Temperatures remain around average, so the transition into early Spring looks pretty average and unremarkable.

[phil nw.]

No sign of any settling down of our weather in the next couple of weeks going by the 12z runs.

GFS mean

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=21&ech=360&mode=0&carte=1

The ECM also continuing the +nao/ao outlook to day 10

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015022012/ECH1-240.GIF?

Any drier spells look short lived with some quite chilly days likely with an ongoing trend to dig troughing south east into Europe.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Bring on next Sunday

 

Sunday.gif

 

agree, but don't agree, no way will that come off, expect low pressure with rain

[knocker]

Between T240 and T360 the ecm anomaly is still realighning the Greenland trough from SE (quite intense) to due south (less so) allowing the ridging over the UK and generally HP eastwards with no sign of any troughing to the SE. Thus a transition from very unsettled Pm conditions to a more settled scenario.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is predominantly more unsettled than the earlier 6z and 0z. I was hoping there would be a clearer signal showing the type of extended outlook the met office are very confident about but the latest mean stays changeable or unsettled all the way to T+384 and beyond.

[bluearmy]

Between T240 and T360 the ecm anomaly is still realighning the Greenland trough from SE (quite intense) to due south (less so) allowing the ridging over the UK and generally HP eastwards with no sign of any troughing to the SE. Thus a transition from very unsettled Pm conditions to a more settled scenario.

Mean upper trough in e Europe throughout knocker. Low anomolys stuck in the eastern med. we could be drifting towards the Russian ridge extending west to meet the Azores ridge but the chances of the chances of the se euro trough extending nw are slim.

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the unsettled and sometimes cold pattern continuing up to and beyond T+240 hours with wet and windy spells interspersed with Pm outbreaks bringing sunshine, wintry showers and night frosts.

[knocker]

Mean upper trough in e Europe throughout knocker. Low anomolys stuck in the eastern med. we could be drifting towards the Russian ridge extending west to meet the Azores ridge but the chances of the chances of the se euro trough extending nw are slim.

 

Afraid I'm not following that ba. There is a ridge in e Europe on the charts I'm looking at. Agree with the rest.

[bluearmy]

Afraid I'm not following that ba. There is a ridge in e Europe on the charts I'm looking at. Agree with the rest.

That's T324 - maybe very Eastern Europe !

[Cloud 10]

Mean upper trough in e Europe throughout knocker. Low anomolys stuck in the eastern med. we could be drifting towards the Russian ridge extending west to meet the Azores ridge but the chances of the chances of the se euro trough extending nw are slim.

 

 

Similar to NAEFS?

 

[bluearmy]

I know ian has given some broad brush comments on the EC 32 but having viewed the mean/anoms for the first time, I am surprised that post two weeks, we seem to drift towards height rises to our nw and falls up our se. uppers below av. the vortex retreats to northwest of greeny and allows modest height rises in the North Atlantic. Not sure I see a relaxation in the cool mid march based on that.

[IDO]

ECM this morning has gone towards the GFS from D7 with a ridge influencing the south of the UK:

 

D7:  D10: 

 

The GFS op maintains that theme this morning:

 

 

Not convinced even with the GFS consistency and ECM now showing a similar run. For a start the new GFS op bias, and second the mean suggests it is an outlier:

 

 

 

A very warm London op run from next weekend!!!

 

GEM pumps up the Siberian high forming a block spreading into Scandi:

 

 

This has a supporting cluster with the GEFS at D10, as does a Euro trough (NW-SE), zonal, N/S split and UK HP. So take your choice. The models are clearly playing around with what happens after around D7?

 

[mushymanrob]

nice to see springramping here!

 

and the gfs is pretty persistent atm in bringing in high pressure later in its runs

 

Rtavn2642.gif (day 11, midway between day 8-14)

 

trouble is (day 11)

 

814day.03.gif

 

computer_says_no.jpg

 

currently no support from the noaa.

 

.. and this morning the gfs has dropped its high pressure domination or modified it, to agree with the noaa 8-14 day anomaly chart. noaa 1 gfs 0 .

 

gfs in fi shows pretty much exactly what id expect from the noaa 8 - 14 dayer.

Edited February 21, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts have been moved to the Model moan/ramp thread, So if yours is missing it's in there. Please continue discussing what the Models are showing..

 

Many Thanks, PM.

Edited February 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery NW flow will give way to a ridge of high pressure crossing East over the UK tonight followed by active Atlantic frontal systems moving into the UK from the West tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and very windy weather seems likely  with strong winds and heavy rain or wintry showers before Southern areas in particular become possibly drier and more settled later

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows much variability in both strength and positioning over the coming two weeks. The flow will dive South over the coming days to lie to the South of the UK before undulating back North at times later though remaining positioned less far North than yesterday morning's output, most likely crossing West to East across the UK in a strong surface Westerly flow.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a cold few days early next week in gale west then NW winds and wintry showers. Milder air then crosses East midweek with a spell of rain for all before colder showery conditions return by the end of the week, less pronounced in the South as pressure rises. then a mild SW flow develops across the UK next weekend which leads us into changeable conditions in Week 2 with westerly winds and rain at times always heaviest over the North with lengthy dry spells further South in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is also showing very changeable conditions throughout the fortnight with not too much influence from the Azores High other than to temper the cold NW flows behind troughs of Low pressure. As a result spells of rain will alternate with coder periods with showers, wintry at times before the next pulse of milder SW winds take hold.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show a mixture of options ranging from High pressure close to Southern Britain with the UK in a mild westerly drift to Low pressure close to northern Scotland or to the NE with gales, heavy rain and showers most likely for all. The balance of at the moment is in favour of the former option or a version thereof being the most likely.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a changeable working week of weather next week bookended by cold, very windy and bright weather with NW winds and showers by a mild and windy period midweek as rain spreads East over all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning remain in support of the main UKMO run with a cold and strong Westerly flow early in the week replaced by a couple of active warm fronts midweek bringing milder and wet conditions across the UK from Wednesday.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM this morning shows a very unsettled 10 days across the whole UK as Westerly winds, strong at times maintain the passage of active troughs of Low pressure each bringing their own version of heavy rain and showers, wintry at times in the North.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM is also supportive of a Westerly flow of weather next week. As with the rest it shows very windy and cold conditions early in the week giving way to milder and rather wet conditions later, especially in the North, though not exclusively so.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows slow improvements taking place from the South starting later next week. In the interim period showers and gale force Westerly winds become replaced by cloudy, milder conditions midweek and thereafter too in the North. Further South pressure is shown to steadily rise and rain from ever weakening fronts should die out next weekend and beyond with dry and fairly mild conditions developing by Day 10.

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart this morning continues to paint a synoptic pattern that has been repeated several times this Winter in our unsettled spells in that there is likely to be an Icelandic Low pressure in 10 days with High pressure near the Azores with Westerly winds and rain at times predominating across the UK, especially in the North in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems a lot of variation in the extent of improvements from the South longer term with a mixture of maintained unsettledness and drier more settled weather between the output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.5 pts followed by UKM at 97.0 pts and GFS at 96.2. At 5 days ECM just continues to lead the field at 89.8 pts over UKMO at 88.3 pts and GFS at 85.9. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 62.6 pts over GFS's 60.3 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 44.2 pts over GFS at 40.6.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The main talking point between the output is all centred on what extent improvements in the weather develop on the anticipated build of pressure from the South or SW in the longer term. There is a lot of agreement in the way things should shape up over the coming week with the cold and very windy spell early in the week delivering some potent showers for many, wintry on quite modest hills even in the South for a time. then milder West or SW winds engulf the UK in rain before another push of colder air behind a cold front crosses SE late in the week, this time less potent in the South. It's from that point that models diverge between a continuation of very changeable conditions in a strong westerly feed and a Jet stream less far North than was shown a day or so ago for this period or a build of High pressure close enough to Southern Britain to dampen down the influence of the troughs still affecting the North at that time. What will likely be more guaranteed is that the temperatures will become closer to average with less cold polar maritime interventions, especially across the South and the possibility of some warm sunshine in any breaks in the cloud under any tropical air masses that pass across. Being mindful of the Met Office March predictions of the Azores High becoming a major player ridging towards the UK is of yet unclear within the output. Their predictions of fine sunny weather with the High near or over the UK look some way off yet with a slower build of that pressure to that sort of resolution shown today than was a day or so ago. Nevertheless, taking away the severe gales and isolated snowfall events of the next few days there looks like being nothing too dramatic to confront us in the weather over the following 10-14 days.  

Issued at 08:30 Saturday February 21st 2015

[bluearmy]

GEM persisting with its theme from yesterday. Other models not on the same page. Whilst this could mean this is one of those few occasion in the year that GEM has picked the solution against the grain, I wouldn't be expecting it to maintain this for a third run. More likely that the Russian ridge will prove to be more of a player than the GFS and ECM ops are showing but the Azores ridge will be the main protagonist from our perspective.

Some interest amongst some gefs members post day 10. worth having another look at the 06z suite I thnk.

Edited February 21, 2015 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

A very mild start to the meteorological spring from the 6z with 60F possible, high pressure becoming centred to the south and a long draw of winds from the Azores feeding across the UK...winter goes out like a lamb...a spring lamb :-)

Edited February 21, 2015 by Frosty.

[legritter]

A very mild start to the meteorological spring from the 6z with 60F possible, high pressure becoming centred to the south and a long draw of winds from the Azores feeding across the UK...winter goes out like a lamb...a spring lamb :-)

Talking of Lambs ,Lion Springs to mind .Models in good agreement of High pressure setting up later next week but still the possibility of being able to get some northern blocking during March ,Its the next stage of the proceedings which could be interesting and although a straw clutch March can deliver so still time for lowland snow if we get lucky .And with 60f a possibility as Frosty points out it could be that the Quick change Artist could come into play ,Whatever, its all interesting and keeps us Model watchers Glued to the charts in search of our Dream weather ,