Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Polar Maritime]

A new thread for a new Month, How long will the cold continue....

 

As ever, Please keep it to friendly model related discussion in this thread, And head over to the banter thread for moans, groans, ramps and more general chat:

https://forum.netwea...umnwinter-2014/

 

We also have the winter thread open for a wider discussion on the winter, How's it's gone so far and so on:

https://forum.netwea...2014-15-thread/

 

If you're wondering where you can view the models, Many of them are available here on Netweather, Including the GFS,ECM, Ensembles, our own NetWx models, and others - All available from the Charts and Data page here:

http://www.netweathe...-and-data;sess=

[Radiating Dendrite]

12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

[Day 10]

12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

Strengthening all the while too

[blizzard81]

12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

No surprises there! The now all too familiar 6z tease being a distant dream.

[thegreat316]

If we ignore the 6z GFS we can see that the centre on the HP has moved from NI to Scotland from the 0z to the 12z.

 

0Z

 

 

12Z

 

 

 

If this Patten continues, then in a few more runs time the HP could be even further north allowing a good undercut.

 

 

 

[Eugene]

12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

 

 

Yeah back to what i was saying yesterday, some moderation of the deep cold nights of the week ahead likely but still on the chilly side, any breakdown to mild SW'lys seems an eternity away.

 

Can't believe the doom, we are in a blocked setup and the high could retrogress, there is no sign of a wet mild zonal setup which we should all be thankful for.

[polar vortex]

Must say compared to the 06z the 12z is a bore fest. The UKMO although far from great keeps more of a stiff easterly flow 

through to t144 with more of a chance of hanging onto snow showers in the south east if the temps are conducive.

Nothing to really get excited about though. 

Having said that I still do not think this is a done deal yet. UKMO looks better at t96 compared to the GFS and we know the 

model is not very reliable past t120 plus the 12 GFS can be overly progressive. Maybe straw clutching we shall see.

[Daniel*]

Typical GFS! GME perhaps not the most prolific has HP more centred over Scotland, N Ireland. With heights in the Scandinavia region, would be very cold and dry to the S, with possible ice days.

[Summer Sun]

Just a side note UKMO is updating fully again on meteociel the 850's are also updating again apart from t120 and t144

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php%3Fech%3D6%26carte%3D1021&usg=ALkJrhgdQaEiB9-7VRinrMQTLR_nNGek8Q - when you first click the link you may see a chart from June last year just hover over any of the times and it will right its self

 

Quite a difference between UKMO (left) and GFS (right) at t96

 

[shaky]

We still get frigid uppers from Both gfs and ukmo midweek for a few days! ! Ukmo looks like its got more of ane easterly across the south than it did this morning! ! Whatever happens its gona be really cold the coming week with very cold night time temps especially if the high is slap bang over us!!

[fergieweather]

A quick question. Why were some on here so adamant that we would experience a very unstable airmass during this cold spell? My experience of previous similar northerly cold spells is one which is dominated by predominantly dry weather. Cold, yes, but very dry. Why was this forecast to be unstable by some members?

It will be (this week) because departing vortex to SE ensures sufficient instability even with rise in GPH from W. Profiles for N Sea/SE coasts suggest typical winter low-topped Cb's at times.

[john mac]

Strengthening all the while too

Is that a little attempt at some ridging I can see!!

[ukpaul]

Just a side note UKMO is updating fully again on meteociel the 850's are also updating again apart from t120 and t144

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php%3Fech%3D6%26carte%3D1021&usg=ALkJrhgdQaEiB9-7VRinrMQTLR_nNGek8Q - when you first click the link you may see a chart from June last year just hover over any of the times and it will right its self

 

Quite a difference between UKMO (left) and GFS (right) at t96

 

 

The 850 charts aren't the correct ones, even though they have the date on them. This is the 96h UKMO chart and it doesn't match.

 

[Boro Snow]

Just a side note UKMO is updating fully again on meteociel the 850's are also updating again apart from t120 and t144

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php%3Fech%3D6%26carte%3D1021&usg=ALkJrhgdQaEiB9-7VRinrMQTLR_nNGek8Q - when you first click the link you may see a chart from June last year just hover over any of the times and it will right its self

 

Quite a difference between UKMO (left) and GFS (right) at t96

 

to my untrained eyes those are incorrect look at the 850s on the 12hr

 

[Eastbourneguy]

Just a side note UKMO is updating fully again on meteociel the 850's are also updating again apart from t120 and t144

 

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&depth=1&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php%3Fech%3D6%26carte%3D1021&usg=ALkJrhgdQaEiB9-7VRinrMQTLR_nNGek8Q - when you first click the link you may see a chart from June last year just hover over any of the times and it will right its self

 

Quite a difference between UKMO (left) and GFS (right) at t96

 

The UKMO 850 temps there are definitely not correct there mate.  +96 on the UKMO is actually reasonable for kent, sussex snow showers.  (Not selfish at all honest =P)

[blizzard81]

It will be (this week) because departing vortex to SE ensures sufficient instability even with rise in GPH from W. Profiles for N Sea/SE coasts suggest typical winter low-topped Cb's at times.

Thanks Ian. Just a shame we can't get the wind veering more easterly so more would benefit.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

The 850 charts aren't the correct ones, even though they have the date on them. This is the 96h UKMO chart and it doesn't match.

 

Agreed. It doesnt match up at all . For instance France has a strong bitter East wind with +8 uppers !! There's a problem with the data clearly .

[chris55]

The Det runs in isolation will be throwing out all sorts of positions for what happens to this high pressure. The ensembles should give us an idea of likelyhood. Although if we continue with the scatter seen on the GEFS 06z then we may well need a few more runs yet. A stonking easterly is certainly not out of the question, but many other options on the table.

 

[Polar Maritime]

I have just had to removed a whole load of posts into moaning thread, So if your's is missing you will find it there. Please continue with Model Output Discussion.

 

Thanks, PM 

[Long haul to mild]

to my untrained eyes those are incorrect look at the 850s on the 12hr

 

+8 uppers over the South East at midnight tonight? Think something not right with those charts.....

Meanwhile, looks like the GFS 6z was just a tease; aside from a brief E/NE flow later this week in which we might squeeze out a bit of wintryness, looks like HP will dominate over the UK for the foreseeable.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

On inspection the gfs isn't far away from the 06 , certainly better than the 0z , granted it's not far enough North but it will certainly be cold and a very gentle East breeze will keep it cold. It won't take much of a shift northeast to produce a very cold run . I think there's tentative signs today to move things northwards and just got a feeling we may see a colder set of ens coming up.

[chris55]

Coming back to the nearer term, what's the chances of this little feature developing further to give some snow as it heads south?

 

[polar vortex]

On inspection the gfs isn't far away from the 06 , certainly better than the 0z , granted it's not far enough North but it will certainly be cold and a very gentle East breeze will keep it cold. It won't take much of a shift northeast to produce a very cold run . I think there's tentative signs today to move things northwards and just got a feeling we may see a colder set of ens coming up.

Agreed. You could easily see small changes which would vastly improve the chances of snow and cold during the coming 

week. The UKMO at t96 looks a lot better than it did on the 0z I think.

[fergieweather]

Coming back to the nearer term, what's the chances of this little feature developing further to give some snow as it heads south?

 

Aligned down through Irish Sea. No significant (if any) PPN likely for S, nor indeed much of UK from this one. Scotland/NI gig primarily.

[shetland islands]

Coming back to the nearer term, what's the chances of this little feature developing further to give some snow as it heads south?

This has been modelled for the past few days. It is an occuled front pushing into N. Scotland tomorrow and then moving south and weakening. Heavy snow for northern and central Scotland and maybe NI. Wintery mix further south and lighter.

Shetland might see a bit though