Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[SMU]

Just on the point of cold availability I would say that the balancing point of North being better than East is like a pendulum swinging from North to East from December 1st - to say jan 1st the coldest quadrant is the North -

Post Jan 1st it's all easterly bias -

With I guess the coldest overall net surface temp available arriving say Feb 1-14 thereafter as the sun rises the strength of an easterly weakens but the potency of a northerly still delivers. I would say that March 14th is around the 'general' cut offline for easterlies but in perfect synoptic scenarios that would be valid out to April.

What I've seen today if everything optimised to see the -12c line arrive at day 11 then it would be the 8th March - so certainly the snow potential would be there but like 2005 overall coverage below 100m could be limited.

Great prospects on show tonight - aligning to similar Synoptics we saw March 2013...

S

Edited February 25, 2015 by Steve Murr

[damianslaw]

Just on the point of cold availability I would say that the balancing point of North being better than East is like a pendulum swinging from North to East from December 1st - to say jan 1st the coldest quadrant is the North -

Post Jan 1st it's all easterly bias -

With I guess the coldest overall net surface temp available arriving say Feb 1-14 thereafter as the sun rises the strength of an easterly weakens but the potency of a northerly still delivers. I would say that March 14th is around the 'general' cut offline for easterlies but in perfect synoptic scenarios that would be valid out to April.

What I've seen today if everything optimised to see the -12c line arrive at day 11 then it would be the 8th March - so certainly the snow potential would be there but like 2005 overall coverage below 100m could be limited.

Great prospects on show tonight - aligning to similar Synoptics we saw March 2013...

S

 

 

Agree in general. Post mid March northerlies certainly more likely to deliver colder conditions than easterlies especially in the north and well into April can still produce very mow maxima and minima. However, northerlies all year round bring coldest conditions Scotland can see, colder than a deep seated easterly.

 

Easterlies can deliver very cold goods post mid March as we saw in late March 2013 but it takes quite special synoptics and that spell came  on the back of a lengthy cold period.

[Eugene]

A lot of interest in this evening's charts, both ECM and GFS continue to suggest a significant change through next week as we loose the influence of the atlantic and exchange it for high pressure building in quickly from the south and for the first time all winter heights are shown to ridge sufficiently north to enable an easterly influence.

 

As others have commented, too early to call how far north such heights will build, but the Jetstream profile supports ridging to the north - a split jet is shown with greatest amount of energy in the southern arm, hence no reason to call off chances of an easterly developing.

 

In the meantime lots of topsy turvy weather, a brief mild blip now, cooler tomorrow and Friday, another brief milder blip Saturday more so in the south, then chilly Sunday-Tuesday with snow to low levels in the north.

 

Early March can be as severe as anything Dec, Jan and Feb can produce in terms of wintry cold weather, especially thanks to the fact the arctic is colder now than at any stage of the year.

 

 

Great post, Yeah i was pointing this out just a few days ago to Cheese/Mushy, also that Sea Temperatures around us are at their coldest and that early March has a higher likelihood of snowfall than early December.

 

I think the new trend starting in 2013 is a cold start to Spring and that Springs will be entering a cold phase in the next 20 years.

[Eugene]

Steve/Damian Northeasterlies can deliver very cold snowy weather even in April, remember late April 1981.

[ANYWEATHER]

Is Winter really going to start in March

[ANYWEATHER]

evening all

Well the cold brigade will be musing over the models tonight wishing these Synoptics had landed sooner -

However the ECM & GFS at 168 & 192 are almost worth a boom comment as the -10 line starts to head towards the uk

Certainly the last 24 hours has seen modelling align to a more & more amplified pattern

The key as ever is to get the link between the Russian high & Atlantic ridge to centralise pressure over Scandinavia - thus delivering the easterlies to the UK ( like the GEM )

Interesting times

S

Yes Steve , lovely synoptics  lets see what tomorrow offers

[Winter Cold]

Is Winter really going to start in March

 

Its beginning to look like it might isnt it

 

While ive been looking at these emerging charts this week, im thinking its just typical of the UK to end up with a story like this. Better late than never I guess, and as Steve says, its not too late yet

 

Biggest, widest snowfall of the 'winter' to actualy come in Spring??

Edited February 25, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Eugene]

Well it seems the models have enticed some of the big boys to return! Il take that as a plus!

 

Ive been posting the promising charts all week and flying the cold flag and its nice to see it gathering some support. Todays runs have certainly upped the stakes, with crucial developments now at T144 so not the deep dark realms of FI so we should know the final outcome soon.

 

The very nice charts have already been posted this evening so ill not clutter the thread by doing the same.

 

 

 

Yes you deserve credit for that amongst great adversity.

[March Blizzard]

Its beginning to look like it might isnt it

 

While ive been looking at these emerging charts this week, im thinking its just typical of the UK to end up with a story like this. Better late than never I guess, and as Steve says, its not too late yet

 

Biggest, widest snowfall of the 'winter' to actualy come in Spring??

Still 3 weeks of Astronomical winter to go yet!

A trend towards a possible cold/colder spell in March has been popping up over the last few days, let's hope it doesn't disappear in the next few. Would be great to see at least some northern blocking before the end of the "winter season" (Nov thru Mar).

[bluearmy]

Not much to say as the modelling seems to be evolving in a quite orderly fashion towards blocking. I didn't make much of the ECM extended last evening but to me, it hinted at the block getting far enough north to allow the jet to undercut. Then the 00z suite followed on and the 12z does the same. Current extended eps show that, in a fortnight, we could well be looking at blocking to our north and northeast with the jet running into Iberia.

[Frosty.]

I think Basil Brush really loves tonight's Ecm 12z, especially T+240 hours, amazing how quickly things can change,anyway..over to Basil...BOOM BOOM :-)

[Blue max 90]

Pub run continues the easterly theme, great charts in FI!

[Eugene]

Blizzards on the 10th into 11th on GFS 18Z.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Looking very interesting to say the least . But let's remeber the infamous failed easterly of dec 2012 , we get led up the garden path time and time again , agreed the teleconnections do tie up this time with the jet digging South , and WAA from the amplified low digging out the states pushing well North , the following pressure rise initially looks a good bet , it's what happens after that that's up for debate , does it sink ? Does it head east ? Does it sit over us ? Even if it heads East we need perfect orientation of the high to drag bitter cold air towards us .

I really do hope we get this , we deserve it lol . My heart says yes gonna happen , my head tells me the heart is treacherous and don't get sucked in again !

[Frosty.]

I'm loving this trend from 18z and I really, really hope that all the long suffering coldies finally get a cold spell to remember, great to see this forum buzzing again.

[Eugene]

Looking very interesting to say the least . But let's remeber the infamous failed easterly of dec 2012 , we get led up the garden path time and time again , agreed the teleconnections do tie up this time with the jet digging South , and WAA from the amplified low digging out the states pushing well North , the following pressure rise initially looks a good bet , it's what happens after that that's up for debate , does it sink ? Does it head east ? Does it sit over us ? Even if it heads East we need perfect orientation of the high to drag bitter cold air towards us .

I really do hope we get this , we deserve it lol . My heart says yes gonna happen , my head tells me the heart is treacherous and don't get sucked in again !

 

 

 

I'd rather remember the great legendary easterly of March 2013/early April 2013.

[Winter Cold]

Completely agree Frosty, the trend remains the coldies friend on the final run of the day. Great charts going forward:

 

[snow mad]

Not much to say as the modelling seems to be evolving in a quite orderly fashion towards blocking. I didn't make much of the ECM extended last evening but to me, it hinted at the block getting far enough north to allow the jet to undercut. Then the 00z suite followed on and the 12z does the same. Current extended eps show that, in a fortnight, we could well be looking at blocking to our north and northeast with the jet running into Iberia.

this must be all to little to late? If this does happen BA will the continent be cold enough or will it be a repeat of February 2005? Great synoptically but no cold over there?

I'd rather remember the great legendary easterly of March 2013/early April 2013.

but that was to marginal for down here unfortunately so would settle for an early spring.

[Frosty.]

Completely agree Frosty, the trend remains the coldies friend on the final run of the day. Great charts going forward:

 

Yes Chris it's time we swapped bitter disappointment for bitter cold, going by the 12and now the 18z, we could really be on track for a March Beasterly..please

[Daniel*]

I'll have what the 18z is drinking

Meteorological Spring heralds the change to Winter. Almost a cross polar flow?

[PolarWarsaw]

Just a quick mention. March may signal spring to some...but for me in the last few years...it's a continued winter. With November and December now an extended autumn, we will soon consider March to be winter. Plenty of time for sunshine and the outdoors from April to September guys...let us have some well deserved cold NOW! 

[Captain Shortwave]

Just a quick mention. March may signal spring to some...but for me in the last few years...it's a continued winter. With November and December now an extended autumn, we will soon consider March to be winter. Plenty of time for sunshine and the outdoors from April to September guys...let us have some well deserved cold NOW! 

Except for the exceptionally cold March 2013, the last few have been warmer than average (2010 (slightly), 2011, 2012, 2014). That seems to be a strange statement, add to that it is perfect plausible to get snow during the first half of Spring.

This mornings output so far has backed off the idea of an easterly developing with a UK/Northern Euro height favoured by the GFS and GEM.

GFS at day 8

GEM

 

GFS ens

A fall off of uncertainty compared to yesterday from the spreads

So certainly a shift towards a more UK based high (albeit the control run is cold this morning).

 

That said the ECM does get the high up to Scandinavia with 850s of -8C pushing in from the east.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Ali1977]

GFS control is proper eye candy from day 8 onwards

Edited February 26, 2015 by Ali1977

[Duane S.]

Not an exact science of course but when GEFS constantly shows the pressure rising in Iceland in far FI at >1005 average (with the OP normally much higher) there is often something in it in terms of HLB possibilities. Too early yet but the first time for quite a while this winter I've seen it.

image.jpg

image.jpg

image.jpg

Three days later and the trend continues unabated. Seen enough now to be sure that starting the 2nd week - mid March is going to bring the best chance of proper HLB all winter. It maybe late winter but March can produce some memorable events. Marginality can be reduced in coastal areas with cooler seas. Obviously lying snow periods will be reduced by a rapidly warming sun but the sun can also be our best friend as well providing energy as precipitation crosses land. Still a way to go but it's starting to get interesting.

[bluearmy]

this must be all to little to late? If this does happen BA will the continent be cold enough or will it be a repeat of February 2005? Great synoptically but no cold over there? but that was to marginal for down here unfortunately so would settle for an early spring.

It would be cold enough but in march, the margins for error are smaller and it requires pretty well everything to fall right.

fwiw, I'm expecting acold continental flow but not much in the way of snowfall. That would require a lucky hit from a cold pool in the flow or an approach of the jet from the sw at the right angle and momentum.