Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[Winter Cold]

Evening all

 

Well after what looked like the possibility of one last chance for winter earlier this week, it all turned out to be another wrong turn by the models. A big shame, as it now looks like another poor winter for the south is coming to an end. Very scary times indeed after these last two, and the reality of some having to wait 3 years to see snow by the time the next chances come round, incredible really!!

 

The next few days offer a final glimer of hope to see something white falling from the sky as there is still a quite strong PM blast scheduled to come through, although even this seems to have been watered down a little!

 

 

Lets hope we can squeeze the best out of this!

Edited February 28, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows the cold and then the warm side of early spring, early next week is cold with low thicknesses and widespread wintry showers bringing longer spells of rain, sleet and snow with icy patches and frosts early and late each day but then we see a trend to much milder / warmer and more settled conditions with +10 T850 hPa and although it then cools off a bit, the run ends with a peach of a chart with a powerful anticyclone centred on top of the uk, the run really does end on a HIGH note.😃

Edited February 28, 2015 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

Evening all

 

. A big shame, as it now looks like another poor winter for the south is coming to an end. Very scary times indeed after these last two, and the reality of some having to wait 3 years to see snow by the time the next chances come round, incredible really!!

 

If we hadn't seen large areas of the NH suffering frigid winters then I'd have some empathy with your post

It's all about where you sit in the pattern and nw Europe isn't where it's at

[Winter Cold]

If we hadn't seen large areas of the NH suffering frigid winters then I'd have some empathy with your post

It's all about where you sit in the pattern and nw Europe isn't where it's at

 

Very true BA, and my post was just focusing on the UK. I suppose I was musing as to whether it is a case of just bad luck for us, or whether we have indeed seen a pattern change over the last few years but unfortunately for NW Europe its not a favourable one. Thats what I meant by scary times. Has there been many times in the past where large parts of the UK have seen no snow for 2 winters?

 

Id better not say any more on this thread anyway, but it does interest/worry me so im always happy to chat weather on PM etc

[bluearmy]

here is the 10 day ECM mean from tonight and 27 days ago

.

Taking into account that things should be changing as we progress through the season, I think this supports the old adage re repeating patterns. (Yes, I saw the ghost in the January frame)

Edited February 28, 2015 by bluearmy

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens shows the high edging in during Wednesday giving a NW'ly wind at first so still feeling chilly in the wind

 

 

Then by the end of the week the flow veers round to a westerly allowing milder air to gradually filter in dry and pleasant for most of England and Wales but Scotland looks prone to more cloud and some rain as its here where your closer to the low

 

 

But into the following week the high really takes hold settling things down for all pleasant by day especially in any sunshine but cold overnight where skies are clear

 

Edited February 28, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Interitus]

Following on from my post this morning about ECM and the potential for temps to get into the high teens GFS is now showing temperatures possibly hitting 16c for some next weekend maybe 17c for one or two Isolated spots

 

 

Into the following week and it starts very pleasant with temperatures well into the high teens for the south 18c maybe even 19c possible in shelter

 

 

*GFS charts beyond this on NW are not displaying correctly at the time of posting T228 is the last chart which is displaying correctly*

Quite a temperature range north to south, particularly on Sunday. The trailing front marking the dividing line gives in excess of 5 inches of rain for the western Highlands in 48 hours from midday Friday.

[johnholmes]

here is the 10 day ECM mean from tonight and 27 days ago

image.jpg. image.jpg

Taking into account that things should be changing as we progress through the season, I think this supports the old adage re repeating patterns. (Yes, I saw the ghost in the January frame)

 

I cannot see that the two are that similar? The main vortex for a start, the two northern troughs?

Maybe I have missed the point ba, it is late for me!

[bluearmy]

I cannot see that the two are that similar? The main vortex for a start, the two northern troughs?

Maybe I have missed the point ba, it is late for me!

 

not carbon copies by any means john but to say they aren't that similar ?  really?  dont look too closely john.  maybe i should have started with a blue and black dress ! 

[Frosty.]

not carbon copies by any means john but to say they aren't that similar ?  really?  dont look too closely john.  maybe i should have started with a blue and black dress !

Maybe I have missed the point ba, it is late for me!

[Frosty.]

Spring is definitely coming guys, check out the 18z.. it's very mild at times during low res, as have the last dozen or so gfs runs in that timeframe.

[Captain Shortwave]

Next weekend could be a very pleasant one in any good sunny spells, especially so in the south

 

GFS in a similar positions gives temperatures in the 14-16C range, though they could be higher if the surface conditions are clear.

Beyond this we see a second ridge push in from the Atlantic and at this stage promotes the high to a more northerly position, still UK based but allows an easterly to develop in the south potentially, though not the cold variety and possible could result in a lot of cloud pushing in from the north sea. But a long way off at the moment and Saturday through to the following Monday look very pleasant or even warm in places.

A typical early spring settled spell developing by the looks of it.

[bluearmy]

Blimey - even for ECM day 10, SLP of 1050 is pretty excessive!

Are we in agreement yet that the potential march blocking has more legs than the February forecast ones?

[IDO]

Looking like good agreement after D5-6 from the models to build pressure across the UK. Just differences to where the core heights sit and how they meander about. Certainly from D5-10 at least a settled period with GEM building the ridge at the end of D4:

 

D4 GEM:  D10: 

 

With maybe Scotland and the NW not so dry at times but the South getting uppers of +12c briefly:

 

 

The GFS op keeps HP till D15 with a mix of warm to above average uppers. Difficult to know the surface conditions at the moment but I would expect a mix, from cloudy, to cool, to a warm high:

 

D13:   D16 mean: 

 

The op and mean hinting that the high will sink SE slightly but plenty of members including the control keep HP in charge:

 

Control at D16: 

 

Early days on that. ECM D10 chart pushes the high further north than the other models: 

 

Knowing the ECM I suspect that is within a small cluster. Looking at the GEFS only 3 members are similar (though the control is one). I suspect that is ECM's bias showing again. 

 

So I am now confident of a settled period from around Thursday with the potential for some mild weather, though not sure how warm it will get yet, but it should last at least a week. I still see it as a mobile pattern, not a true block per se. We initially have a displaced Azores High on the move but grinds to a halt over the UK as it battles to break the Euro trough. Further high pressure cells from the US (2-3) eject to reinforce the UK HP cell. By around D7-8 the Euro trough relents and HP breaks through eastwards. Looks like after D10 that battle focuses in Europe enabling pressure to be maintained in the UK sector. These injections of HP from the west should mean we have variations on the HP theme rather than a stagnant pool. A varying mix to start March off with the upcoming cold westerly incoming.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery Westerly airflow will cover the UK through the period with minor troughs swinging East in the flow enhancing spells of rain or showers, wintry in places.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable and showery to begin before becoming more settled and milder later.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow blowing strongly West to East just to the South of the UK for the first days of this week. Thereafter, the flow weakens somewhat and moves North to lies on a more SW t NE flow to the NW of Scotland later in the week and thereon.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a cold Westerly flow across the UK for the early days of this week with wintry showers. All the while pressure will be gently rising from the South and by later in the week High pressure will lie close to the South with milder winds wafting down across the UK on a little rain for a time. Thereafter, High pressure takes firm control of the weather over the UK with fine and settled weather with sunny spells for many with patchy night frosts. The far NW may be cloudier at times with a little rain as troughs brush by to the North but the pattern remains persistent until the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL  The GFS control run also shows High pressure taking control over and near the UK in the second week with a somewhat slower path to this than the operational run though with a somewhat warmer end to the run as High pressure slips to the east and feeds a mild sourced Southerly up across the UK.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are not available at time of publish of this report again this morning but the latest available run from ECM's 12z run of yesterday suggests High pressure close to Southern England in 10 days time.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a NW/SE split setting up in the weather later this coming week with mild SW winds everywhere with rain at times in the NW with dry and fine weather for many in the South and East with a lot of cloud at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold and showery start to the week with rising pressure from the South and a ridge of High pressure crossing East followed by milder SW winds and weak troughs from the NW later on affecting principally the North within the timeframe.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today also shows the cold showery theme early in the period giving way to mild SW winds preceded by a ridge of High pressure. High pressure lies close to the South later in the period with rain bearing fronts affecting the North in strong winds at times while the South holds mostly dry and mild conditions with variable cloud and reasonable temperatures especially by day under High pressure just to the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows High pressure building strongly just to the South of the UK late in the week with fine and mild conditions here and cloudier conditions with more wind and a little rain possible in the far NW at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM too follows the above theme well with milder conditions taking hold for all from midweek. A spell of rain is shown to cross SE introducing the mild weather on Thursday before High pressure takes control over the South by next weekend and all areas later with an intense centre to the NE by the end of the run with a relatively mild and cloudy Easterly flow across the UK though probably with significant cloud cover.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows strong support for a High pressure to lie over and just to the east of the UK with fine and settled Springlike conditions for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period is continued within this morning's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.3 pts over UKMO at 88.4 pts and GFS at 87.1. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 66.5 pts over GFS's 60.5 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 49.8 pts over GFS at 41.3.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS There is a possibility of an early taste of Spring shown within the models this morning. It is not a given though that there will be loads of blue sunny skies and high temperatures with much output suggesting something more cloudy or indeed overcast at times on a mild SW wind. However, there is total agreement that the current cold and showery Westerly is the last we will see for a while as mild winds topple round the Northern flank of a developing High pressure area close to the South of the UK late in this coming week. This may be accompanied by a short spell of light rain as the colder air is displaced on Thursday. Thereafter Southern areas look like becoming completely dry with variable amounts of cloud, some sunshine and temperatures quite respectable at least by day but under any clear and calm conditions at night slight frost and mist is possible. Northern areas may take rather longer to lose the influence of a SW moist flow with occasional rain but most output supports Northern areas too enjoying the quiet and settled conditions too later. ECM shows an intense High close to the NE later with a cloudy and grey Easterly in relatively mild air given the Easterly fetch while other output suggests a centre of High pressure closer to the East or South with mild winds sucked up across the UK. So all in all despite the cold start to March where some could see some snowflakes over the coming days a complete change in weather type is on the way with benign and relatively mild Spring conditions in light winds and variable cloud cover lasting for quite a while once established especially across the South.  

Issued at 09:00 Sunday March 1st 2015

[mushymanrob]

 

 

 

thats good agreement, that we will most likely get some very pleasant mild weather at last!

 

it might not be very sunny ( although it might) , but the mildness will feel great!

 

what a great outlook for the first day of spring!

Edited March 1, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

High pressure becomes centred over or just east of the UK. It could turn very mild if not warm next weekend before the temperatures tail off into week 2.

Sunday looking like the peak

a mean of +8C in places, with a light to moderate south west wind that could deliver temperatures in the high teens if the set up comes with relatively clear skies.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Day 10 ECM chart last night had the high at 1042mb I think this morning its 1052mb! not far of the UK record of 1055mb

 

 

Back to the closer timeframe and the milder temps kick of in internist next weekend according to GFS with 16 maybe even 17c possible for some if skies were clear

 

 

Into the following week it follows the weekend with temps easily into the mid teens for England and Wales western Scotland though keeps single figure temps

 

 

By the Tuesday temps begin to fall back in the north though remaining close to the mid teens for the south

 

 

So a chilly start to spring as we know we some wintry showers then a change to milder temps for a time as high pressure begins to build

Edited March 1, 2015 by Summer Sun

[bluearmy]

Wouldn't be banking on particularly mild just yet. I suggest expectations of average and then any warmer verification will be a nice surprise. it's a funny time of year for temps. I note Atlanta predicted afternoon T2maxes this week of 21c on wed and 1c Thursday.

[johnholmes]

Wouldn't be banking on particularly mild just yet. I suggest expectations of average and then any warmer verification will be a nice surprise. it's a funny time of year for temps. I note Atlanta predicted afternoon T2maxes this week of 21c on wed and 1c Thursday.

 

When the synoptic outputs match the anomaly charts pretty well it is unusual for them to be too far out in my view over the years. As to how mild then obviously that is open to question, GFS is notorious for this but the overall weather pattern looks to be high dominated with that surface feature not being a position to bring much in the way of cold looking at all the various outputs? How much sunshine is another variable feast, I would advise folk to watch the last visual on the previous day and put the 950 and 850mb predicted winds on that to see how they may fare the following day. Or to take a look at the Net Wx skew-t for your area on the following day?

[Polar Maritime]

A few posts have been deleted. Please stick to what the Models are showing.

Thanks PM.

[Frosty.]

Models are looking very springlike, and this pm spell has almost downgraded to nothing as usual .roll on the warmer days.

Edited March 1, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Frosty.]

Now that's what i call anticyclonic, the GEFS 00z mean brings very pleasant early spring conditions to all areas but nights would be cold with slight frosts and mist / fog patches, however, these would soon burn off in the strengthening March sunshine 😃

[Eugene]

Wouldn't be banking on particularly mild just yet. I suggest expectations of average and then any warmer verification will be a nice surprise. it's a funny time of year for temps. I note Atlanta predicted afternoon T2maxes this week of 21c on wed and 1c Thursday.

 

 

Voice of reason, similar looking charts in early March before have given chilly days under persistent fog, initialy it could be very mild from the SW but rather cloudy with moist atlantic air but when the high moves over us it will turn cooler esp at night, strange to see charts get praise when just 6 weeks ago they would be called dire.

[icedust]

ANOTHER POLAR LOW

 

Hi all

 

You probably remember the polar low forum at the end of January that went 'viral' on that night.  The interest then was in how much snow people would get and the low track in a general N-NW flow.  Well look at the satellite images for today and the observations over Ireland. Another polar low is tracking east, just leaving the Dublin area as I speak. Looks set to give a good dump over the Peak district this afternoon, though many places will see just rain/sleet.  Just goes to show how common these features are. Any old unstable airmass to depth will do, with a bit of PVA at height, just like today.

The models have picked this up quite well over the last 12h or so, especially Euro4, latching onto the differential wind flow at height, and developing the feature.

Don't know quite where to post this but I'll also post it in the model section as I have mentioned the model output above.