Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->

[IDO]

Although the pattern is relatively mobile with the PV scooting around to the north of us, the WAA from Africa and reloads of pressure cells from the SW maintains HP in the UK area despite the general drift east. That was never IMO going to sustain a MLB over the UK but the PV goes from D7 to D12:

 

 

 

At the moment when that meridional flow hits our region we are still in the grip of the upper ridge so this enables another period of settled weather. However the pattern is still mobile and the wave of LP in the Atlantic will try to move east. On this run it slowly sinks the high SE by D16:

 

 

The control is similar. GEM is UK HP dominated from D2 to D10: 

 

ECM sends shortwaves on the jet at D7 and D9 and they are further south than the GFS, where as the GEM keeps them north of the jet:

 

 

 

So possibly a transient N/S split at times. Bearing in mind the GFS propensity to over egg the pressure gauge I suspect the op is too progressive with temps and the London ensembles suggest that is a possibility:

 

 

But the precipitation charts tell the story for London for the foreseeable with the potential for some warm early Spring weather

[Captain Shortwave]

Yeah the GFS op pretty much delivers the perfect set up for early Spring warmth, no surprise to see it be a temperature outlier in low resolution. That said the mean suggests above average temperatures throughout.

The one subtle change which can be seen on the temperature predictions is that for the south at least, there is little or no drop in temperature after the weekend as the winds continue to blow between the south and the west. The ECM suggests it will turn briefly cooler in the north on Monday before the mild TM airmass re-establishes.

Not sure about the ECM op this morning, it seems very keen on trying to dig every Atlantic system south east into Europe, I suspect these will more than likely push north east along the jet instead of disrupting and offering the chance of rain at times. That said the same couldbe said about the GFS euro high solution.

I suspect we will see mainly dry weather for the majority throughout the first half of the month, beyond that is too far away to be honest. Down here the 20 minute spell of rain which cropped up on Sunday could be the only rain we see for the first half of the month. No point suggesting a repeat of March 2012 at the moment, mainly as it has rained this month, unlike that ridiculous month.

 

Moving onto potential warmth again, Saturday could be the day where we see a new highest maximum of the year, that accolade going to Aberdeenshire with a classic fohn effect.

*The chart on netweather suggests a high of 17C (again I can't post for some reason)

Temperatures generally in the 14-16C range in the south from Saturday onwards if the GFS temperature predictions are on the money. It could get higher if we get some prolonged sunny spells.

Edited March 3, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Here you are Capt. Yes some lovely warm/settled Spring weather on the way by the weekend. Even warmer towards the end of the run maybe touching 20c in the South..

Edited March 3, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS.

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and showery Westerly airflow will veer NW tonight as a ridge of High pressure moves over from the West later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and reasonably mild weather with some sunshine in the South and East but occasional rain possible towards the far NW.

THE GFS JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble Forecast shows the flow moving North from a position South of the UK to one between Scotland and Iceland in a NE direction from the end of this week. It remains here for the remainder of the period troughing deeply down over the Atlantic very late in the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows milder Atlantic SW'lies taking control from the end of the week with fronts still affecting the North for a time with rain at times but dry and quiet weather across the South with much milder air here as High pressure lies just to the South. This is then to extend North by next week with some fine and dry weather for all with temperatures on the plus side of average. There are occasional interventions of troughs shown through Week 2 interrupting the fine weather but always short-lived as High pressure rebuilds behind any troughs from a point near the South of the UK with continuing mild air on a Southerly feed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif
 
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run supports the operational well this morning drawing High pressure to all areas by early next week along with some pleasantly mild days but with a risk of slight night frosts. High pressure then remains close by warding off all attacks from Atlantic Low pressure until the very final days of the run some two weeks from now.

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters this morning offer numerous options with all receiving credible support of evolving. All members focus on the positioning of High pressure either to the East, South or SW of the UK with influence from them extending to most parts of the UK for much of the time though some Low pressure troughs would inevitably affect the NW at times.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO UKMO this morning shows a High pressure area close to the South and SE this weekend with a SW flow over the UK, strong in the North with occasional rain while the South sees increasingly very mild air sucked up across these areas from the SW. The High then extends North to all areas at the start of next week with light winds for all and fine Springlike weather likely.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a similar evolution to that shown by the raw data with a change to mild SW winds soon and extending into all areas by the end of the period as High pressure to the South then builds North further across the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM too shows the UK drifting to a more settled period of weather first over the South as High pressure builds here with some fine and warm early Spring sunshine over the weekend. A mild SW flow, strong for a time could continue to bring occasional rain before all areas eventually join in with the fine weather although the North is still shown at risk from occasional rain from weak troughs brushing East to the North of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows pressure building close to the South of the UK with a mild SW flow across the UK, strongest in the North for a time before even here drier and less windy conditions develop later with some pleasant mild temperatures for all but always the threat of a lot of cloud marring the otherwise sunny and very mild conditions over the South.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure building across the UK next week with a spell of mild and dry weather with some warm sunshine at the weekend slow to affect the North in a stronger SW flow, cloud and occasional rain. High pressure then affects all areas at times though a few annoying small Low pressure areas could deliver a couple of occasions of rain especially in the North and West later next week and again at the end of the run with temperatures falling back to average as a result.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean Chart shows very Springlike synoptics with High pressure stretching from Southern Scandinavia, the UK and towards the Azores with the Jet Stream harmlessly well away to the NW with plenty of fine and possible very mild weather continuing across all of the UK 10 days from now.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards drier and more anticyclonic weather later in the period is sustained within this morning's output.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKM & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.6 pts followed by UKM at 97.2 pts and GFS at 96.4. At 5 days ECM  continues to lead the field at 90.5 pts over UKMO at 88.5 pts and GFS at 87.2. At 8 days ECM remains the leader with 67.0 pts over GFS's 60.2 pts. Then at Day 10 ECM retains superiority at 50.1 pts over GFS at 43.3.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The theme of High pressure becoming the dominating feature controlling the weather across the UK remains within this morning's output. There is over riding support for it to become centred close to the South of the UK innitially affecting Southern areas with some Springlike weather this weekend before extending further North early next week replacing the mild and damp SW flow across Northern areas up to this point. Thereafter it's a place of High pressure shuffling it's positions around in the vicinity of the UK that could make fundamental changes on the effects this High has at the surface. While no cold weather looks likely to develop under this feature amounts of cloud could be rather large at times and put a dent in the otherwise mild temperatures which equally transpires into whether frost develops at night or not. The one constant is that there looks to be little sign of any significant rainfall within the time period this morning with even the rain at first in the North not amounting to much away from the mountains. If we then look at the extremities of the GFS Ensembles and far out data elsewhere it looks like the High might show a desire to shift slowly away to the East or SE allowing some ingress of Atlantic troughs but this is subject to revision many times over up and coming runs and is only mentioned because it's hinted at in these 00z outputs but may well be superseded in the next few runs. So all in all it looks like we need to settle back and enjoy a rest from chasing showers and snowflakes in chilly air to something that could kick start Spring into action in fine and settled weather with the chance of some warm sunshine and a lot of dry weather overall. For gardeners there is of course still the risk of frost by night should night skies clear but daytime's should see temperatures recover well, especially in any sunshine though having said that I think the anticipated high temperatures towards the South and SE this weekend could trend back more towards average values as we move through the period.  

Issued at 09:00 Tuesday March 3rd 2015

[mushymanrob]

well the outlook is good if its quieter, settled, mild and springlike weather your wanting to see.

 

 

alot of high pressure somewhere around, mostly favourably positioned to our south, looking mainly dry, mild, but plagued by cloud at times which will spoil things. if youre lucky enough to get any sunshine then temps will become very pleasant.

 

maybe this chart typifies what the general pattern will be over the next couple of weeks?

 

of course the ecm's 00z , suggestion of a scandinavian high is still an option, but currently not a very realistic one. one to keep an eye on nevertheless.
 

[Summer Sun]

Its another very settled run from the ECM ens unlike its Op it doesn't develop those small areas of low pressure, if the ENS is right we can expect a lot of dry and settled conditions from around Thursday with temperatures over the weekend in the mid teens for a lot of us whilst temps will ease off next week it would remain very pleasant by day especially in any sunshine though cold and frosty over night if skies clear

 

 

We'll have some exceptions to the dry weather at first and this will be in Scotland and Northern Ireland mainly where your closer to low pressure but even here temps will be approaching if not in double figures over the weekend

[Interitus]

Its another very settled run from the ECM ens unlike its Op it doesn't develop those small areas of low pressure

 

The signal for small areas of low pressure may well be diluted in the ensemble mean.

[stodge]

Morning all

 

Some more interesting synoptics from the 6Z Operational output:

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015030306/gfs-0-234.png?6

 

A nice continental feed which might bring sunnier days and colder nights with luck.

 

The boring old HP to the south or SW may be on the change to something more interesting. Looks settled but not for the first time the furthermost reaches of FI signal a change of sorts.

 

I don't buy that as these HP cells take a lot to break down in the absence of a powerful jet.

 

AO remains rocket powered:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

 

NAO still positive as well but both sliding back from very high levels toward something more normal:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

It's something I shall be watching in the next few weeks.

Edited March 3, 2015 by stodge

[summer blizzard]

Expected a good 6z with the lack of posts and was not dissapointed. A tad early in the season to get the most out of it but the 6z aims a southerly at us and keeps it for several days. The CET could well be on steroids if that came off.

 

[winterof79]

well the outlook is good if its quieter, settled, mild and springlike weather your wanting to see.

 

test8.gif 814day.03.gif

 

alot of high pressure somewhere around, mostly favourably positioned to our south, looking mainly dry, mild, but plagued by cloud at times which will spoil things. if youre lucky enough to get any sunshine then temps will become very pleasant.

 

maybe this chart typifies what the general pattern will be over the next couple of weeks?

 

Rtavn2402.gif

of course the ecm's 00z , suggestion of a scandinavian high is still an option, but currently not a very realistic one. one to keep an eye on nevertheless.

 

Scandinavian high looks realistic according to 06z GEFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180

 

GFS chopping and changing from run to run.

Edited March 3, 2015 by winterof79

[summer blizzard]

Scandinavian high looks realistic according to 06z GEFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180

 

GFS chopping and changing from run to run.

 

GFS sinks it gradually keeping us in a southerly.

[Frank Trough]

GFS sinks it gradually keeping us in a southerly.

 

I think it was IDO who posted the week 2 JMA from a week or so ago which was going for that scenario - a continental flow but not a particularly cold one.

 

We'll pay for all this high pressure you know....

[mushymanrob]

Scandinavian high looks realistic according to 06z GEFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180

 

GFS chopping and changing from run to run.

 

yes the odd run shows it...but until the anomaly charts show it, its not realistically going to happen.....

[stodge]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015030312/gfs-0-276.png?12

 

If only it was July or August....

 

I expect by then we'll have plenty of northern blocking and a southerly jet and a negative AO to keep us all entertained.

[Nouska]

yes the odd run shows it...but until the anomaly charts show it, its not realistically going to happen.....

 

A Scandinavian high would be a very plausible outcome when looking at the ECM and GFS forecast for the MJO.

 

 

 

 

It is the height of irony that people wait all winter for amplification in the right phase - then along it comes at the wrong time.

[mushymanrob]

A Scandinavian high would be a very plausible outcome when looking at the ECM and GFS forecast for the MJO.

 

 

 

 

It is the height of irony that people wait all winter for amplification in the right phase - then along it comes at the wrong time.

 

fair play

 

i note the gfs 12z would agree with that, and possibly the anomaly charts will swing towards it, after all its well in fi atm. but that composite, and the current gfs, dont really paint a disaster picture.  the high being positioned and orientated more favorably for dry springlike conditions if this ever becomes reality

 

 

(yes thats one fi chart, i could have posted a seriese but this one kinda sums up the general pattern for the time in question.)

Edited March 3, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is looking really good for mild anticyclonic conditions to last beyond mid month. The surface conditions would be very pleasant indeed with a good deal of strengthening sunshine, light winds and clear nights with slight frosts and a risk of mist / fog forming but soon burning off each morning. Although I'm a coldie who has just endured another very poor winter, I think these charts are very nice. :-)

[Summer Sun]

ECM 4 weekly model shows 3 weeks of the high dominating then week 4 (23rd to 30th) suggest more of a north westerly flow

 

 

Chart courtesy of WSI EuroEnergy

Edited March 3, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 4 weekly model shows 3 weeks of the high dominating then week 4 (23rd to 30th) suggest more of a north westerly flow

 

 

Chart courtesy of WSI EuroEnergy

 

FWIW the much maligned CFS has been very consistent with the idea of a wet, westerly dominated April for some time. April showers??

[Frosty.]

ECM 4 weekly model shows 3 weeks of the high dominating then week 4 (23rd to 30th) suggest more of a north westerly flow

 

 

Chart courtesy of WSI EuroEnergy

That's the second ecm op run today which I think is poor with Atlantic influence dragging weak fronts and cloudier skies across the UK next week...not the fine sunny high I was expecting, it's a mess IMO.

[ANYWEATHER]

The climb to more settled conditions continues from gfs and ecm, Flies in the ointment start to appear from Ecm, will the Gfs follow and will the mild settled spell shown by the models on recent days start to change???    

[Frosty.]

I hope the ecm is just having another very bad day, otherwise next week won't be anything like as fine and sunny as expected but the 12z ensemble mean shows an improvement by Friday the 13th..am I the only one who thinks the ecm 12z op is not only poor but even worse than the 0z? really disappointing ecm today / tonight.

[Milhouse]

The ECM does show the Atlantic making inroads into northwestern parts especially but at the moment it looks like the high pressure over the near continent will be strong enough to deflect the proper unsettled weather away to the north. Weather fronts will make their way across the country on the ECM 12z but i suspect that they will be quite weak by the time they reach the south east. The GFS looks better for delivering pleasant warmth more nationwide over the next 7-10 days whereas the ECM has cooler air filtering in from the west so temperatures would fall to nearer normal after this weekend.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 18z shows a change to mild weather by Friday and much milder air from the azores arriving, especially by Saturday with the moray firth being the warmest at around 60F and many areas would be fine on Saturday with swly winds and sunny spells. By Sunday, a band of persistent rain stretches from Ireland and across most of Scotland and much cooler than Saturday but for southern Britain it would be even milder or rather warm and fine again but then by Monday, a weakening band of rain slides SE but not reaching southeast England which would again be very mild. I think a few spots will reach the low 60's F between Sat / Mon. High pressure then takes over, becoming centred to the east enabling a very mild southerly flow to bathe at least the southern half of the UK and ireland during the second half of next week.

Edited March 3, 2015 by Frosty.

[winterof79]

Lots of posts about the milder Sunday but its not all mild on the ECM and GFS only has a brief flirtation over the weekend.