Storm & Convective Discussion - 01/03/15 onwards

[Raidan]

If there is to be rain on Friday as I've heard people saying I hope it comes in the evening...was disappointed last Friday had half day and was looking forward to a few beers in the pub garden but it was cloudy and chilly.hoping for a better afternoon lots of sunshine this Friday.Don't like the sound of a possible cold spell either want it to stay sunny and don't want cold weather but if there is to be any storms I'll happily take that.

[Mokidugway]

Friday always goes down the pan ...

[summer blizzard]

Radar shows nothing but we've got dark cloud over Leeds and the feel of a shower near.

What are conditions like atmospherically or should I expect nothing.

[Mokidugway]

Nothing much occurring ,just the odd grain of drizzle ..

[Lauren]

It's surprisingly humid out thee.

[Captain Shortwave]

Tomorrow looks better, temperatures still hitting the mid/high teens in the south with a reasonable amount of instability as pressure falls throughout the day.

Modest cape values

[Raidan]

Thought it would be raining by now but still dry.not getting my hopes up on anything thundery today.

[Azazel]

will be out and about tomorrow for the first little "chase" of the season, though not expecting much.

 

Still, gives me time to play with my new lens AND my new GoPro:D

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

will be out and about tomorrow for the first little "chase" of the season, though not expecting much.

 

Still, gives me time to play with my new lens AND my new GoPro:D

Hehe reminds me that I got my fish-eye lens last year on the 18th July which was the night of the huge wall cloud and epic storm across Kent and the South West, but I was so tired after the storm the night before I slept through the whole ruddy thing and I haven't had a proper chance to use it since.

Darnit!

[Thunderbolt_]

The GFS 18Z run is suggesting that there maybe some convection tomorrow for southern and eastern areas and parts of Cornwall, with some slight atmospheric instabilities and low-to-moderate CAPE values. Coupled with that there also appears to be some decently steep lapse rates too, so some sharp showers with the odd rumble of thunder definately can't be ruled out.

 

Edited April 24, 2015 by Thunderbolt_

[Azazel]

Hehe reminds me that I got my fish-eye lens last year on the 18th July which was the night of the huge wall cloud and epic storm across Kent and the South West, but I was so tired after the storm the night before I slept through the whole ruddy thing and I haven't had a proper chance to use it since.

Darnit!

Oh man that sucks:/

I feel your pain though, I really wanted to capture some long exposures last summer and those couple of nights in July were my best chance....shame I was out of the country that week:(

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

Issued 2015-04-25 08:57:09

Valid: 25/04/2015 0600z to 26/04/2015 0600z

 

 

THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST

 

Synopsis

 

Low pressure system NW of Iberia will advect a modestly moist airmass across southern Britain during Saturday, ahead of a weakening cold front pushing south, expected to lie E-W across central Wales - Midlands - Lincs by 18z. Convergence zone south of the cold front may support locally heavy and thundery showeres across parts of southern England.

 

... S ENGLAND, SE WALES, MIDLANDS, E ANGLIA ....

 

Fairly steep lapse rates and moist airmass across southern Britain south of southward moving cold front will create an unstable airmass with surface heating in the above areas today. Wind convergence zone is forecast by models to develop from Cornwall/Devon, through Gloucestershire, S Midlands, and up towards The Wash/Cambs this afternoon, shifting slowly south with time, and will be the focus for the development of heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. Vertical wind shear will be rather weak, so no severe weather is anticipated. Showers/t-storms are likely to be slow-moving ... So bringing a risk of localised flooding. Light winds aloft and surface covergence will be conducive for funnel clouds or even an isolated brief weak tornado.

 

This evening and overnight, UKMET surface analysis indicates frontagenesis ahead of the weakening cold front arriving across southern England overnight, this new cold front forming, surface convergence along south coast ahead of front and increasing vorticity aloft with arrival of left exit region of a jet streak moving NE from Bay of Biscay may support further heavy showers and thunderstorms for a time this evening and overnight across southern coastal counties of England - before the cold front clears out into the English Channel Sunday morning. This overnight convection is also supported by ECMWF and HIRLAM.

 

Forecast also here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=6ebcf3fb1a7d2b0d7d4eaec501002939

Edited April 25, 2015 by Nick F

[A.J]

cheers Nick, a quality forecast as ever 

[Harry]

Sun breaking through now and it is noticeably warm...sitting here revising and a lovely breeze blowing through. Should be some energy up there for a storm or two, though alas I'm likely to be sandwiched between the two areas of interest to my North (N London/Midlands) and the South later (Southern coastal counties per Nick F's forecast)

 

Still...its the first real prospective day of 2015 for me of seeing at least some Cb formations 

Edited April 25, 2015 by Harry

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Does look increasingly better for later on this evening and into the night

[Daniel*]

Nice looking cloudscapes out there, today may be the first 'banger' it has been a slow and monotone start to the year. As the threat of snow has all but receded - now we move onto summer plumes and all that jazz.

[Harry]

Nice looking cloudscapes out there, today may be the first 'banger' it has been a slow and monotone start to the year. As the threat of snow has all but receded - now we move onto summer plumes and all that jazz.

 

Indeed, radar image showing some convective rainfall breaking out up north though, although no sparks so far.

 

Looking briefly worldwide, some eye opening storms across SE USA and off of the SE coast of Aus at the moment - the activity from the SE Aus storms in particular is impressive for storms over the seas.

[Eye to the sky]

Some really intense showers here now,just can't believe there's nothing electrical as yet.It feels really humid in the sunshine.

[Harry]

Some really intense showers here now,just can't believe there's nothing electrical as yet.It feels really humid in the sunshine.

 

We have sparks now across E/NE England.

[Supacell]

Some really intense showers here now,just can't believe there's nothing electrical as yet.It feels really humid in the sunshine.

 

Most of them missing to the north of here, we have had some moderate showers.

 

A small chance of some of these turning thundery as the band moves south with showers continue moving from SW to NE along it. Most of the forecasts are favouring areas south of the Midlands for anything thundery. 

 

It has been a very quiet April so far for convective activity, but maybe some chances in the last few days of the month, although nothing overly spectacular.  

[Daniel*]

One word Lincolnshire, there's some quite potent drenching cells...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Sun been out warming things up nicely here in the south lock that heat in, get the colder air moving south to bump into it and hey presto hopefully we will get some storms later

[Greeny]

Some cells near Skeggy producing sferics and a possible cell starting to fire in Norfolk.

 

[IanR]

One word Lincolnshire,

image.jpg

Ha yes,  and so the Lincolnshire storm season begins,    as for the rest of us do we really have a season ?, here its just a couple of days annually 

Edited April 26, 2015 by IanR

[Nick F]

Yesterday's convective potential not quite going according to plan, with alot of cloud and rain spreading in from the southwest hampering a convergence zone and thus convective potential across the south, though we did see some storms across Lincs as usual!

 

Chance for Scotland and NE England to catch some thundery showers today with a risk of hail as some rather cold air aloft spreads south in the north, creating steep lapse rates :

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=f9a46283029c2f8f5ae88ee2700d2171

 

Coming week looks to see the classic set-up of sunshine and April showers in the northwesterly flow, with some scattered weak thunderstorms and some hail in places, some nice crisp convective skies to admire.

Edited April 26, 2015 by Nick F