Summer 2015

[Azazel]

Thanks Goodness i'm going on my annual holiday down to St. Tropez in August:p

[ClaireAnderson]

Honestly speaking I'm hoping for a nice and warm summer with lots and lots of sun bath

[Weather26]

I Just want the newspapers to stop harpling about how it's gonna be Hot and Dry through all 3 months of Summer when we all know that's not gonna happen.

[cheeky_monkey]

I Just want the newspapers to stop harpling about how it's gonna be Hot and Dry through all 3 months of Summer when we all know that's not gonna happen.

But do we though?

[Weather26]

But do we though?

We propably do but i was more refering to The Express who see fit to splash it across their front pages.

[Summer Sun]

We propably do but i was more refering to The Express who see fit to splash it across their front pages.

 

The truth is though weather stories make money, thats why certain newspapers persist with what on most occasions are fantasy stories, the more extreme the headline the more £££'s

[Don]

If that Accuweather forecasts comes off, I won't be too unhappy. Haven't their seasonal forecasts been pretty good lately?

[sundog]

I think Accuweather have not been too bad with their seasonal forecasts during the last few yrs.

An average type of summer is what i hope we get so i hope they are right.

Edited May 15, 2015 by sundog

[Geordiesnow]

I always find that you can read countless long range forecasts all you like and try and get an idea what the summer will be like but at the end of the day, its what the models in the short-medium term shows is what will determine our summer will be like, not what each long range forecaster thinks what might happen. 

 

Don't get me wrong, I got respect for people doing long range forecasts and in the most part, they are not just guesses, there is the scientific element that goes into it but personally, I would not always read too much into them. 

 

As a general rule of thumb, you don't want too see any "true" Greenland highs during the summer months(So basically you don't want too see warm air being pumped into Greenland) as this can lead the jet stream to head south and over us giving those summer washout days. 

 

Its too early to say what will happen but I am hoping for a warm and dry summer to dominate, I also like too see more in the way of thundery breakdowns from the South also but as per ever, its a wait and see type of situation. 

[William of Walworth]

Latest model output thread output looking very different from modelling domonating the outpur two or three days ago, and in both cases that's just relating to next weekend, ie the Bank Holiday one.

 

By Monday, expect several more fluctuations. Then by next Thursday, several more again.

 

Even just one week ahead, we can rely on nothing.

 

So I'm definitely not indulging in any mid-Somerset focussed, late-June hopecasting for now ...

Edited May 15, 2015 by William of Walworth

[damianslaw]

We'll be inundated with summer forecasts in the next 2 weeks, most tabloid ones will be of the sensational variety..

 

It's been a preety average year so far, we haven't seen the anomalous warmth of 2014 and SST values to our west are notably colder than usual, I'll be very surprised if we end up with a notably warmer than average one...

[Geordiesnow]

We'll be inundated with summer forecasts in the next 2 weeks, most tabloid ones will be of the sensational variety..

 

It's been a preety average year so far, we haven't seen the anomalous warmth of 2014 and SST values to our west are notably colder than usual, I'll be very surprised if we end up with a notably warmer than average one...

 

Do you mean globally or just the UK? In terms of the UK, we have been through some quite noticeable warmth for the time of year during this Spring but it also been quite cool at times, quite variable its fair to say! 

 

No real signs of a true Greenland high developing and the models are slightly hinting the jet stream may start heading northwards in the medium term but that is still a bit way off at the moment.

[Interitus]

I always find that you can read countless long range forecasts all you like and try and get an idea what the summer will be like but at the end of the day, its what the models in the short-medium term shows is what will determine our summer will be like, not what each long range forecaster thinks what might happen.  

 

Whoever is controlling these models wants to get their act together so we get a decent summer!

[Gael_Force]

The 3 month JMA ensemble forecast for the summer is an absolute horror show; isolated low heights over the UK all summer long. It has been out on its own with some of these set ups in the past bad years and verified - please let it be wrong this time!

 

[draztik]

Gael, I was just getting ready to post the jma seasonal, but see you beat me to it.

Quite the take July and August .... what do you even say. June looks best, tho all three months look to be cooler than average.

This ties in with the latest CFS ensemble & met office ensemble forecast for the summer.

All in all, a mixed bag on offer.

[Gael_Force]

Gael, I was just getting ready to post the jma seasonal, but see you beat me to it.

Quite the take July and August .... what do you even say. June looks best, tho all three months look to be cooler than average.

This ties in with the latest CFS ensemble & met office ensemble forecast for the summer.

All in all, a mixed bag on offer.

 

Personally, I think that extreme heat may not be far away but with the solar cycle rapidly declining it is plausible to see the cut off upper trough scenario of the recent bad summers. If memory is correct it was during some of those years that JMA was on the money.

[Captain Shortwave]

I do wonder whether the JMA seasonal was skewed by the events around when the model was run (given how the fist half of May has turned out).

At the moment the signs are pulling away from this cool and wet scenario with the Azores high having more of an influence, in fact the CFS 4 weekly is showing proper summer weather during the first half of June with week 4 coming out well above average temperatures wise with heights over or just north east of the UK.

 

Looking back at the previous ensemble runs, most have high pressure close to the UK during the first part of June. Of course position will be key to the temperatures. 

Edited May 18, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[cheeky_monkey]

They not only make the most money, but they also get a lot of attention too. As soon as there is a headline about the weather, the Joe-public are off talking about it.

Do they though?..i never here anybody outside of this forum ever mention the weather stories on the front cover of the express or any other newspapers..im not sure many people read the papers that much anymore?

[draztik]

I do wonder whether the JMA seasonal was skewed by the events around when the model was run (given how the fist half of May has turned out).

At the moment the signs are pulling away from this cool and wet scenario with the Azores high having more of an influence, in fact the CFS 4 weekly is showing proper summer weather during the first half of June with week 4 coming out well above average temperatures wise with heights over or just north east of the UK.

CFS week 1, 2.gifCFS week 3,4.gif

 

Looking back at the previous ensemble runs, most have high pressure close to the UK during the first part of June. Of course position will be key to the temperatures. 

 

skewed?

So the Beijing climate model, along with the new Canadian long range model, must also be skewed.... as both showing a similar trend towards a cooler than ave. summer. 

 

Always consider reasons when the models don't give us what we are chasing. As for the CFS ensembles you posted, that is now showing all four weeks with a below ave temp anom today...

Edited May 19, 2015 by draztik

[Gael_Force]

skewed?

So the Beijing climate model, along with the new Canadian long range model, must also be skewed.... as both showing a similar trend towards a cooler than ave. summer. 

 

Always consider reasons when the models don't give us what we are chasing.

The CMC model is a bit of an enigma as it has two versions which do not agree on temps for Europe.

 

 

 

I don't know where you got the idea it is new; it has been around for a long time but revamped for longer lead global seasonal in the last few years.

 

BTW, the IMME is the EUROSIP (UKMO, Meteo France, ECMWF and NCEP blend) it doesn't look very great either.

 

Archive is here if anybody wants to look at previous forecasts.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/

Edited May 19, 2015 by Gael_Force

[draztik]

Canadian long range model, not Chinese.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015050100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=102

[Gael_Force]

Canadian long range model, not Chinese.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cansips&region=global&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2015050100&fh=1&xpos=0&ypos=102

I changed it.- I'm too used to the other one. If you look at the graphic you would see.

 

Edit  ....I've always used the NOAA MME page to see all the American models in one place.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Gael_Force

[cheese]

Saw a model (Jamstec I think) showing UK and Ireland below average and literally everywhere else in Europe above average. 2015 is really shaping up to be a real stinker.

Edited May 20, 2015 by cheese

[weatherguru14]

Last evening the weather forecaster on the bbc  mentioned its not a  "scorcher".. hinting  in a way.or giving a  false impression...pack it in.,aslong has the wind is coming from this direction  then north-west you can kiss any idea of  high tempertures good bye.

I have mentioned this a couple of times already.I prefer honesty rather than inkling of something  that may include HEATWAVE/SCORCHER. there are no signs of anything out of the ordinary temperature wise for at least 2 more weeks. and  any weather expert can you tell beyond  10 days is a stretch to predict the weather.

[Mokidugway]

Another 6 weeks of this crap then I thin I'll thro the towel in and book a pre holiday holiday to the sun :0....