Summer 2015

[Relativistic]

That would make sense given that Atlantic lows provide some of the warmer conditions in winter while a continental influence generally provides the coldest. In the summer, a continental flow would generally aid warmer conditions than westerlies off the Atlantic, so if the longer term solar patterns have an effect on the position of the jet stream leading to a more continental pattern for the UK and less Atlantic influence we could expect some colder winters and possibly some warm summer months too.

Interestingly if we are starting from warmer baseline conditions, should this happen I suppose it is possible similar synoptics to the months you mention could even return slightly higher CET figures.

Indeed, seems entirely likely.

Also worth a mention is the incredible Summer of 1826, which I missed before.

June: 17.3C

July: 17.9C

August: 17.6C

And just after the period I stated and technically not Summer, we had the incredible May of 1833 which recorded a CET of 15.1C.

Edited June 6, 2015 by 22nov10blast

[virtualsphere]

hail seems to have been a big issue for viniculture - I suppose this may indicate clashing air masses not unlike what we have seen in recent years.

I've often wondered about the hail / storm reports from that period - whether the conditions really were more extreme and, if so, what synoptic pattern caused this - or whether the greater reliance on agriculture and more manual methods with greater frequency of outdoor working, combined with the fact that it was actually quite a long period so hard to compare to our 'current' conditions, actually masks the fact violent storms were just as rare as today.

By the last bit I mean that to compare a period of, say, 1650 - 1800 with the present you would need to include the last 150 years in the 'present'.

[weatherguru14]

So we are back to cool oops  very COOL NWesterly again.. well for the majority of the UK.. Seems we will not get rid of it this summer.. Apart from  Thursday and Friday.. The rest of the time the  temperature as been way down on where it should be..

[Eugene]

So we are back to cool oops  very COOL NWesterly again.. well for the majority of the UK.. Seems we will not get rid of it this summer.. Apart from  Thursday and Friday.. The rest of the time the  temperature as been way down on where it should be..

 

 

 

How do you know, the summer is only 6 days long.

[Lake District Blizzards]

Six days into June and just like May, it is now running at 3c below average here.

 

actually Mean Maximum is 3.8c below average

 

one day where it reached 18c, then back to highs of 11/12/13/14c.

 

horrible strong winds again today - got to be the worst start to June in a long long time

[weatherguru14]

because we have seen it before??? the summers of 2007/2012.. It will take a lot to shift this current weather patern. Our summers are short as it is.. we are on a trend of  lower than averages temps..I would rather it rained   from the SW at least we get rid of these NW  winds.. they  are not giving up without a fight.

[weatherguru14]

I don't want a blistering heatwave.. it very rarely happens in summer never mind June.. Just want average temps and light winds..NW is  the worst direction for weather. It brings howling winds and rain in the winter months. I know the northern part of the UK isn't as warm as the south east,. But  we do get some nice weather  down the spine of the UK.. I'd be a fool to give up on this summer with 1 week gone. But the patern for June right now doesn't fill me with  Joy..

Could all change  we will see.

[Summer Sun]

because we have seen it before??? the summers of 2007/2012.. It will take a lot to shift this current weather patern. Our summers are short as it is.. we are on a trend of  lower than averages temps..I would rather it rained   from the SW at least we get rid of these NW  winds.. they  are not giving up without a fight.

 

It could be far worse than what we have now

 

June 2012.....

 

 

At least so far this June high pressure is close by and at times over us even if it isn't especially warm

[lassie23]

Six days into June and just like May, it is now running at 3c below average here.

 

actually Mean Maximum is 3.8c below average

 

one day where it reached 18c, then back to highs of 11/12/13/14c.

 

horrible strong winds again today - got to be the worst start to June in a long long time

I am enjoying this cool weather down here in the sultry, tropical south,   long may it continue. Although 14c is like a mild winter day for down here, so I can see why you are hacked off. We have been getting 19c, 20c here which is perfect, considering London is a heat island.

[weatherguru14]

Its not always the case that the south and east is warmer than the rest of the UK. if theres an easterly the western side of the  UK is warmer..Roll on SUMMER  bring it on  

[Weather-history]

20 years ago away from the west, it was a chilly first half to June but that went on to become one of the truly great summers.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at at the beebs week ahead forecast, we'll have a north west, south east split cooler north westerlies with some rain for Northern Ireland and Scotland, but at the same time warmer humid air brings a risk of thunderstorms for the south east

 

[IanR]

20 years ago away from the west, it was a chilly first half to June but that went on to become one of the truly great summers.

i seem to recall we had it not too bad here with temps in the high teen low twenties range which is better than the regular 15c and cold wind we seem to constantly have now

[I Cumbria Marra I]

The Met Office have had a howler btw, im sure i read warm or very warm temps and thundery weather for the first half of june.

[weatherguru14]

You cant blame the met office.. they just go by their models. Doesn't mean its going to be correct..For all the predictions.. no one knows what will happen in a  few days time. Even Netwether summer forecast is for an above June temperature  wise month..I hope that ends up correct,means we'll have a few days of  heat coming up

Edited June 6, 2015 by weatherguru14

[MP-R]

To be perfectly honest, had we not had that warmer, less windy spell on Thursday and Friday, I'd be tempted to put this June on par with June 2012 so far. Monday and Tuesday were absolutely vile, a 10C and 13C maxima respectively, howling winds and heavy rain; two days that could have been mistaken for November had the trees not had their foliage...

 

At least, next week some settled weather will finally arrive and at last that sodding wind will be dropped. I wonder if this June will redeem itself, a bit like 2005 did?

 

I'm hoping so Scott, this week could be forgiven if we get the second half of June 2005 to follow haha. I don't think we're in such a strong place re SSTs this time though and I wonder if that's what is making it so hard for warm air to hang around for longer than 24 hours at a time.

[Nouska]

I've often wondered about the hail / storm reports from that period - whether the conditions really were more extreme and, if so, what synoptic pattern caused this - or whether the greater reliance on agriculture and more manual methods with greater frequency of outdoor working, combined with the fact that it was actually quite a long period so hard to compare to our 'current' conditions, actually masks the fact violent storms were just as rare as today.

By the last bit I mean that to compare a period of, say, 1650 - 1800 with the present you would need to include the last 150 years in the 'present'.

 

It would be difficult to quantify compared to our extended network coverage and global satellite analysis. These reports were not part of a bigger picture and very dependent on the perception of the person writing them. It does appear from recent years that the incidence of damaging hail is increasing and many of the severe weather outbreaks have resulted in significant crop damage. The cause is a matter of conjecture, set against wider global change.

 

I was reading a report from Reading University where they did some modelling of a future Maunder minimum; it focused more on the NH winter - probably because impacts would be considered more likely/important.

 

The charts at the end are for winter, no indication how that translates to summer.

[damianslaw]

There is always a seasonal lag effect when we start the next meteorological season, first half of June rarely delivers peak summer warmth (mid July-mid Aug) just like first half of Sept often delivers summer like temps, first half of Dec late autumn mean temps, first half of March late winter like conditions.

 

Its around the summer solstice I begin to look at trends and signals for the summer as a whole as it is around then the northern hemisphere tends to settle into its summer base state. With this in mind its unwise to dismiss the rest of the summer based on current and forecast synoptics.  Summer 95 and 05 good examples of disappointingly cool first halves to June changing to generally very warm summer thereafter, exceptionally so in the case of 95. I'm not saying expect such a change this year, but lets see where we are in a couple of weeks.

[cheese]

There is seasonal lag - but the average high this time of year is more like 19C, so a forecast entirely of 15-17C is very disappointing. I expect a few cooler days, but not constantly cool. A few warm days, a few cool days - they usually cancel each other out.

Edited June 6, 2015 by cheese

[weatherguru14]

And theres always  it will take  3/4 more weeks to get any decent warmth  we will get 3 weeks of decent temps in July early August.. Then  we will go into autumn in  mid August.. and then  our summer only lasts a  month at most..

cant complain about the last 2 summers.But this year wont be one to remember unfortunately (just my opinion of course).

[damianslaw]

And theres always  it will take  3/4 more weeks to get any decent warmth  we will get 3 weeks of decent temps in July early August.. Then  we will go into autumn in  mid August.. and then  our summer only lasts a  month at most..

cant complain about the last 2 summers.But this year wont be one to remember unfortunately (just my opinion of course).

 

June 2013 wasn't anything special and ended up below the CET mean, with no particular warmth before a marked change occurred just as we entered July.

 

I agree to some extent if we maintain a predominantly northwesterly airflow this summer then yes a cooler than average summer is on the cards, cooler than normal thanks to anomalous cold SST's to our NW.

[weatherguru14]

June 2013 was pretty good for the western part of the UK.. I don't get where people make up stuff that it wasn't..The first 2 weeks were good and I recall  4 days at the end of the month that was warm aswell. 2014 june was often cloudy  but  quite muggy. the first week of june this year feels like  early/mid October.

[weatherguru14]

Going back to June 2013,  from  what I recall    there was a huge  high to the west of the uk  the winds came from  a  w/nw direction but they weren't as strong as they are now  we had  10/11 days of sunshine and it felt like summer. Even though  the high was in the wrong place. Like tomorrow  the high is way out west.. But the winds will be light. It will be a  decent day for most of the UK tomorrow.

Just unfortunately the winds will pick up again  later on. and looks like from the North this time  we will see on that note..

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Yep June 2013 was very good here, we had like two straight weeks of temps over 20c which is very rare here and it was 90% cloudless skies.

[IanR]

I know this should really go in another thread but why is the Atlantic so cold, were we not meant to get higher sea temps with *global warming* ? or is the warming ironically making the uk a cooler climate ,  has the gulf stream stopped or is it fresh water melt causing the anomaly  

 

something is afoot i think, maybe its part of the reason for our dwinding spanish plumes and thunderstorms in these parts, all a bit depressing