Summer 2015

[weatherguru14]

Take the Met office..High pressure will settle to the north  warmer than average for the north and  plumes of thundery weather moving up from the south.. This is the met office.. The one that claimed the next few months the temperature would be in all likelihood higher  than average. since they mentioned that.. after the warmish april.. Its been   well below average. the whole of May as been  very  disappointing temperature wise.

2 years ago the met office claimed we are going to get   10 wet summers in a  row. the last 2 have been dry.. sorry to complain. You cant really complain about the weather in th UK obviously. But am sick of the cold

[Summer Sun]

Gavin Partridge's summer forecast:

 

 

Gav is taking a gamble going against the models his summary is

 

warmer than average summer

regular plumes / heat-waves quickly breaking down into thunderstorms

Lots of variation on rainfall

[Cheshire Freeze]

Gav is taking a gamble going against the models his summary is

 

warmer than average summer

regular plumes / heat-waves quickly breaking down into thunderstorms

Lots of variation on rainfall

 

A lot of people went against the models last winter....we all know what happened there!

[Nouska]

I think I'd have to go against Gav as well on that one too, as it's only really Huug and the NASA model that are going for a warm/hot summer. The rest of them are all over the place; some going for a washout, some going for cool and dry and the others, for an average summer.

 

Personally, from my interpretation, I'd go for a very mixed and mobile summer, with no pattern dominating for very long. I think there will be a bit of everything, ranging from some short heat waves, to some Spanish plumes, but at the same time some Atlantic spells and cool and cloudy spells.

 

I'm not so sure about the models.......we are currently going into a very low solar state which may mean that the tendency is for static blocking in the long wave pattern; a lot depends on whether we grind to a halt on the upside or downside of the wave. My thinking is that the long rangers are being influenced by the big warm anomalies in the Pacific while the Atlantic has a very cool pool, equals cooler UK if westerlies predominate. I'm also mindful of the last time we had such anomalous warmth in that region of the EPAC - 2003. If we get a pattern from the continent, as then, the effects of any cold pool will be negated.

 

Equally, 2007 could be on the cards as the solar signal is very similar to now.

 

 

 

El Nino is a wild card for our region but the JMA ENSO composites favour later summer warmth,even hot!

[IanR]

It just shows you cant relie on  long range  weather charts. flamining june?? We are in for a  cold summer.. so far this weather reminds me of stat of summers from  2007/2012

only worse

[draztik]

Gav is taking a gamble going against the models his summary is

 

warmer than average summer

regular plumes / heat-waves quickly breaking down into thunderstorms

Lots of variation on rainfall

 

well thats 24 minutes of my life I can't get back...

so Gavin is going against the majority of the models and then says 'stay tuned for a sneak peek at where the models lead us into Autumn'... why? If you're going to disregard what the LRM show into the next 3 months, why even consider looking beyond that..... gee whiz!

Edited May 31, 2015 by draztik

[damianslaw]

Summer always a tricky season to call, not quite as tricky as Spring, but far trickier than autumn and winter. I haven't a clue about this summer, too many conflicting signals as ever.

 

Recent summers have tended to settle into a similar groove, 2007-2012 predominantly wet atlantic dominated, 2013 and 2014, a decent start with peak of warmth and dry weather in July followed by rather cloudy disappointing Augusts..

 

The northern hemisphere tends to settle into its summer base state after the summer solstice, its then when I tend to look for signals..

[Captain Shortwave]

Well summers under El-nino conditions do tend to exhibit Euro high type set ups, this also is the signal given by the current cold Atlantic with ridging present to our east/south east and troughing to our west. This explains Huug's forecast at least. He could be right though with this. Most models want to place Atlantic heights and cooler conditions with its proximity determining the rainfall amounts.

Who knows who will be right, I am going to give a rough guess and suggest a summer close to 2010 as I suspect Europe will be warmer than most climate models have suggested, though the effects over the UK could be limited.

[damianslaw]

Well summers under El-nino conditions do tend to exhibit Euro high type set ups, this also is the signal given by the current cold Atlantic with ridging present to our east/south east and troughing to our west. This explains Huug's forecast at least. He could be right though with this. Most models want to place Atlantic heights and cooler conditions with its proximity determining the rainfall amounts.

Who knows who will be right, I am going to give a rough guess and suggest a summer close to 2010 as I suspect Europe will be warmer than most climate models have suggested, though the effects over the UK could be limited.

 

 

The pattern of recent weeks has been for low heights to our NW and stronger heights far to our SW despite an atlantic SST profile that should be more conducive to favour a sharper trough to our west/sw and ridge to our SE/East. Mind the effects of the developing EL Nino are currently not being felt whereas by late summer they should be - which as you say should produce the more common profile explained. We shall see. A good analogue is summer 1997 which saw lower heights positioned over and just to the SW of the country through June, but the trough then lifted through July becoming more atlantic based allowing a greater influence from heights to our NE/E, in August we saw a marked long wave deep trough to our west and a hot humid continental flow from the south thanks to a pronounced ridge to our east/se.

[Summer Sun]

All but northern Scotland under the warning now

 

Issued at: 0828 on Mon 1 Jun 2015

Valid from: 1400 on Mon 1 Jun 2015

Valid to: 1800 on Tue 2 Jun 2015

 

An unseasonably windy spell is likely across many parts of the UK later on Monday, overnight and well into Tuesday, as active frontal systems sweep across the UK. An initial swathe of southerly gales accompanied by heavy rain will move east across many parts later on Monday, giving gusts of 40-50 mph widely but 60-70 mph across exposed Irish Sea and perhaps some English Channel coasts. Winds will become west or southwesterly on Tuesday, with further gusts to 40-50 mph more locally, before gradually easing later.

 

Large waves will affect some coasts in the west and south at times. Given the unseasonable nature of the winds, the public should be aware of the potential for disruption to transport and outdoor activities. Damage to some trees seems likely. This is an update to the warning to bring forward the start time, cover the rest of England in the yellow area and also to increase gust speeds through the Irish Sea.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

A powerful jet stream stretching across the Atlantic into the UK will steer a number of active weather systems across the UK during Monday and Tuesday. A front will cross from the west on Monday and Monday night bringing 20-40 mm of rain to northern and western areas along with gales, severe on some coasts and hills. The windy weather will be maintained well into Tuesday by a vigorous depression crossing northern Scotland. Developments are complex so there is still some uncertainty in the detail, especially by Tuesday, and this warning will be kept under review.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1433113200&regionName=uk

[lassie23]

In my expert opinion   I think we will have an Atlantic dominated June/ July, will a drier but cool August/September. So good slug weather to begin with, but getting less slug friendly as we progress into late summer. All in all, a typical El Nino summer (bugger). If that high pressure then sets up to the west of the U.S as we approach October, then we are all doomed! (Unless you like average winters).

[Summer Sun]

TWO's summer forecast

 

Summer 2015: Thundery and mixed

 

Forecast Issued 01/06/2015

 

Important note about long range weather forecasts: It is considered impossible to say with certainty what the weather will be like more than a few days ahead in the UK. Long range forecasts on TheWeatherOutlook have not been independently verified, and we make no claims for their accuracy. A range of factors including seasonal computer models, recent weather patterns, sea surface temperatures and teleconnections are considered when making the forecasts.

 

Overview

 

Some very warm or hot spells of weather are expected along with thundery breakdowns which could bring large local rainfall totals and cooler conditions.

 

Temperature

 

Temperatures are forecast to be slightly above to above the long term average. An aggregated Central England Temperature (CET) for June, July and August between +0.2C to +1.2C from the 1971-2000 average is considered the most probable outcome.

 

Precipitation

 

Overall rainfall levels are forecast to be close to average across the country but with large local variations.

 

June

 

Temperature: Slightly above average
Precipitation: Slightly below average

 

First half

 

The month begins very unsettled with heavy rain and strong winds in all regions. After the first couple of days it becomes drier and warmer and then more settled weather is expected to continue for much of the period with a chance of warm and possibly thundery conditions at times. The north of the UK probably remains cooler and at greater risk of showery rain and this could sometimes spread southwards.
Second half

 

Spells of fine and warm weather are forecast to continue. In the south it could become very warm at times. Cooler and showery conditions may return on several occasions bringing a risk of heavy showers or thunderstorms during transitionary periods.

 

July

 

Temperature: Above average
Precipitation: Close to average

 

First half

 

Very warm and fine spells interspersed with unsettled conditions bringing the risk of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Temperatures generally above average with a chance of hot spells in the south east.
Second half A similar pattern is forecast to persist bringing the potential for more very warm weather at times but also breakdowns bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms followed by cooler conditions.

 

August

 

Temperature: Close to or slightly above average
Precipitation Close to average

 

First half

 

A more changeable theme bringing the risk of showers or longer spells of rain to all regions is expected. This increases the chances of cooler spells but warmer incursions remain possible, mostly in the in the south eastern corner. Drier and warmer spells are increasingly likely towards the end of the month. These favour southern and central regions with the north and particularly Scotland probably more changeable with showers or longer spells of rain and close to average temperatures.

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/forecast/uk-seasonal-weather-forecast

Edited June 1, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Mokidugway]

A local garage I've just passed has left the top down on a Peugeot on its forecourt !!

[weather_it_will]

Summers are getting colder every year.

[reef]

A few posts have had to be removed. Remember everyone this is the summer thread, not the winter or wind-up summer-lovers thread.

 

Please continue...

[weatherguru14]

My post got removed absolutely nothing wrong with it.Am   glad I  don't come on here often.. you can hardly breathe without someone clamping down on ya.Right back to the summer thread (the whole post will be removed because of the first  2/3 sentences by the way)  anyhow fab gfs  charts this morning..Fingers crossed it comes to fruition.

[geoffw]

does anyone know when the netweather summer forecast will be issued?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Summers are getting colder every year.

 

ay, but winter's getting warmer every year

[Summer Sun]

does anyone know when the netweather summer forecast will be issued?

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

[geoffw]

i mean a detailed forecast like the one they provide for winter 

[Summer Sun]

i mean a detailed forecast like the one they provide for winter 

 

Not sure if NW do a detailed summer forecast now I can't remember if they did one last year

Edited June 2, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

The CFS and Beijing climate centre are still going for core heights over central/northern Europe for June and that is by todays forecast. So not in agreement with the short range models with the Atlantic ridge idea. That said temperatures are uninspiring suggesting that westerlies will dominate with a few warmer spells from the south.

[Summer Sun]

Summer returns but no heatwave

 

There have been some stories in the press that a heatwave is on the way later this week.  Although we are expecting temperatures to rise over the coming days with some pleasant early summer weather, any very warm weather will be fairly short-lived. After an unseasonably cold, wet and windy start to June and the meteorological summer, high pressure is expected to build across southern parts of the UK from Wednesday, resulting in a much quieter and more pleasant spell of weather.

 

By Friday, a plume of hot air from the continent could bring temperatures in the mid 20s°C  across south eastern parts of the country, but this in turn is likely to trigger some thundery showers. So although temperatures are likely to peak on Friday, this may not necessarily be accompanied by blue skies and sunshine, as a good deal of cloud is possible along with rather humid and hazy conditions.  Deputy Chief Meteorologist Martin Young said “although things will be a good deal warmer than of late, there still remains considerable uncertainty about how hot it will be and exactly where will see the highest temperatures on Friday, and the public should keep in touch with the latest forecastsâ€. This coming weekend is likely to see temperatures a little lower than Friday’s in the south east, but plenty of pleasantly warm sunshine is expected across much of the UK with temperatures widely in the high teens, and reaching the low 20s°C  in parts of the south.

 

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/06/02/summer-returns-but-no-heatwave/

[weatherguru14]

Todays bbc 10 day outlook as high pressure bang   ontop of the uk nextweek.. Light winds and sunshine is the order of the day??  oh am  I missing something?

[Milhouse]

High pressure needs to shift further east next week then things will be a whole lot better. but at the moment its all looking rather boring.