Summer 2015

[Cheshire Freeze]

I know this should really go in another thread but why is the Atlantic so cold, were we not meant to get higher sea temps with *global warming* ? or is the warming ironically making the uk a cooler climate ,  has the gulf stream stopped or is it fresh water melt causing the anomaly  

 

something is afoot i think, maybe its part of the reason for our dwinding spanish plumes and thunderstorms in these parts, all a bit depressing

 

I think a few of us (Fred et al) are stepping back and looking at the bigger picture in terms of near future N Europe climate. Fred (BFTP) is a big believer that things could get very interesting in the next few years RE solar influences etc.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Where can i read about that CC?

[TEITS]

I just want to see some rain. Only 70mm has fallen this spring in my area and only 140mm so far this year.

[Summer Sun]

I just want to see some rain. Only 70mm has fallen this spring in my area and only 140mm so far this year.

 

Up here in Darlington we've only had 127mm up-to June 6th which is significantly below average

Edited June 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[reef]

Up here in Darlington we've only had 127mm up-to June 6th which is significantly below average

 

Is that your own station? The Metoffice charts suggest its been a bit wetter than that:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/13/2015_13_Rainfall_Actual.gif

 

Looks to be above that figure for Darlington in March-May alone.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I know this should really go in another thread but why is the Atlantic so cold, were we not meant to get higher sea temps with *global warming* ? or is the warming ironically making the uk a cooler climate ,  has the gulf stream stopped or is it fresh water melt causing the anomaly  

 

something is afoot i think, maybe its part of the reason for our dwinding spanish plumes and thunderstorms in these parts, all a bit depressing  

 

 

I think a few of us (Fred et al) are stepping back and looking at the bigger picture in terms of near future N Europe climate. Fred (BFTP) is a big believer that things could get very interesting in the next few years RE solar influences etc.

 

Several papers recently have suggested that there's been a slowdown in the gulf stream (possibly in relation to a freshening of the north Atlantic due to the accelerating Greenland ice sheet melt), while we may also be entering into a -ve AMO period. Here's a review of one of the papers and here is another

 

Anywho, I did a post a few weeks ago looking at the Atlantic cold pool, how it was producing record cold temps and moving toward us. I posted up this animation using the ncep/ncar reanalysis data.

 

 

 

Here's an update to that animation showing an extra 2 weeks of data up to June 4th.

 

 

Looking globally, SSTs have been in the top 3 for the last year or so, with many all time records set over the past 12 months. For example, in the last state of the climate report for April, global SSTs were the warmest on record despite the North Atlantic cold (they were 3rd warmest for February and March, and warmest against for January)

 

The April global sea surface temperature was 0.60°C (1.08°F) higher than the 20th century average, marking the highest global ocean temperature on record for the month...   ..... Record cold sea surface temperatures remained in part of the North Atlantic between Canada and the United Kingdom.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504

 

Most of the north Atlantic is looking very cold now, and the cold pool of recent months has definitely moved toward us. The ultimate cause of the cold or the influence it will have on our summer remains uncertain, but anyone putting together a long range forecast and not taking this into account is making a mistake.

 

[Summer Sun]

Is that your own station? The Metoffice charts suggest its been a bit wetter than that:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/13/2015_13_Rainfall_Actual.gif

 

Looks to be above that figure for Darlington in March-May alone.

 

It's a local one after looking at the chart you provided looks to be miles out.....

[Costa Del Fal]

Several papers recently have suggested that there's been a slowdown in the gulf stream (possibly in relation to a freshening of the north Atlantic due to the accelerating Greenland ice sheet melt), while we may also be entering into a -ve AMO period. Here's a review of one of the papers and here is another

 

Anywho, I did a post a few weeks ago looking at the Atlantic cold pool, how it was producing record cold temps and moving toward us. I posted up this animation using the ncep/ncar reanalysis data.

 

 

 

Here's an update to that animation showing an extra 2 weeks of data up to June 4th.

 

 

Looking globally, SSTs have been in the top 3 for the last year or so, with many all time records set over the past 12 months. For example, in the last state of the climate report for April, global SSTs were the warmest on record despite the North Atlantic cold (they were 3rd warmest for February and March, and warmest against for January)

 

The April global sea surface temperature was 0.60°C (1.08°F) higher than the 20th century average, marking the highest global ocean temperature on record for the month...   ..... Record cold sea surface temperatures remained in part of the North Atlantic between Canada and the United Kingdom.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504

 

Most of the north Atlantic is looking very cold now, and the cold pool of recent months has definitely moved toward us. The ultimate cause of the cold or the influence it will have on our summer remains uncertain, but anyone putting together a long range forecast and not taking this into account is making a mistake.

 

How likely is this cold pool to last? Would have thought its extent is nearing its maximum now?

[BornFromTheVoid]

How likely is this cold pool to last? Would have thought its extent is nearing its maximum now?

 

Nobody can really say how long it will last without fully understanding the cause.

 

If it was just due to a temporary slowdown in the gulf stream, then it could fade over the next few months. If it's part of a long term -ve AMO phase, we could see a cold north Atlantic for most of the next decade or more.

 

For now, we just have to wait and watch!

[Weather-history]

I recall that June 1972 was unusually chilly in part because of cold SSTs in the North Atlantic.

[Airedalejoe]

Is that your own station? The Metoffice charts suggest its been a bit wetter than that:

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/13/2015_13_Rainfall_Actual.gif

 

Looks to be above that figure for Darlington in March-May alone.

20 mile north of Darlo and don't have any accurate figures but it's very obvious we've had more than 5" of rain this year. Lot's of windy day's too and temps continue to be below average on an almost daily basis.

Sitting in my conservatory it regularly looks pleasant out but that's a far cry from being actually out and about. So far, June is continuing what May brought us, cold!

[MP-R]

No doubt the sea will warm up just in time for winter.

[Milhouse]

It just seems like an extension of Spring out there at the moment. Friday gave a taste of what summer warmth feels like but sadly it was blink and you miss it.

Edited June 7, 2015 by Milhouse

[Backtrack]

In regards to the thermal lag effect:

A very interesting theory, and it's evident that it's true, with the warmest ever UK temperatures being recorded in August, but almost every August I can remember since 2003 have been absolutely shocking. So we are well overdue a good one.

[cheese]

20 mile north of Darlo and don't have any accurate figures but it's very obvious we've had more than 5" of rain this year. Lot's of windy day's too and temps continue to be below average on an almost daily basis.

Sitting in my conservatory it regularly looks pleasant out but that's a far cry from being actually out and about. So far, June is continuing what May brought us, cold!

Yes, very misleading. looks like it should be warm but it definitely isn't - a little better than yesterday because the wind isn't as strong but still cool - and no doubt will be very chilly this evening.

[reef]

It just seems like an extension of Spring out there at the moment. Friday gave a taste of what summer warmth feels like but sadly it was blink and you miss it.

 

The nights have definitely been cool, but here at least the daytime maxima in June so far have actually been above average:

 

1st: 15.8C

2nd 19.4C

3rd: 17.9C

4th: 21.3C

5th: 24.5C

6th: 18.2C

7th: 18.9C

 

Mean Max (1-7 Jun): 19.4C

 

Its been quite sunny aswell, with nearly 70hrs of sun already.

Edited June 7, 2015 by reef

[Milhouse]

In regards to the thermal lag effect:

A very interesting theory, and it's evident that it's true, with the warmest ever UK temperatures being recorded in August, but almost every August I can remember since 2003 have been absolutely shocking. So we are well overdue a good one.

 

We really are. The best one i would say IMBY was 2013, which turned out just like a little cooler version of July 2013. Consistently warm,very warm and fairly dry. 2004 will definately split opinion, but there have been some right stinkers with last year probably the worst of the lot.

[Milhouse]

The nights have definitely been cool, but here at least the daytime maxima in June so far have actually been above average:

 

1st: 15.8C

2nd 19.4C

3rd: 17.9C

4th: 21.3C

5th: 24.5C

6th: 18.2C

7th: 18.9C

 

Mean Max (1-7 Jun): 19.4C

 

Its been quite sunny aswell, with nearly 70hrs of sun already.

 

We must live in our own micro climate over here, especially if you combine Mays figures in as well, and then compare it to the country as a whole. Its definitely the wind that has made it feel cooler.

[cheese]

The nights have definitely been cool, but here at least the daytime maxima in June so far have actually been above average:

 

1st: 15.8C

2nd 19.4C

3rd: 17.9C

4th: 21.3C

5th: 24.5C

6th: 18.2C

7th: 18.9C

 

Mean Max (1-7 Jun): 19.4C

 

Its been quite sunny aswell, with nearly 70hrs of sun already.

You've been quite a bit warmer than Leconfield then.

 

Average max to the 7th here is 18C on the dot - slightly below average, but no signs of it getting any warmer, so no doubt that figure will continue to dwindle.

Edited June 7, 2015 by cheese

[reef]

You've been quite a bit warmer than Leconfield then.

 

Average max to the 7th here is 18C on the dot - slightly below average, but no signs of it getting any warmer, so no doubt that figure will continue to dwindle.

There's something not quite right with the Leconfield station at the moment, in May it only recorded a mean max of 14.8C when everywhere else around it recorded values well into the 15s. On the 5th June it only reached 23.7C when every other site in the area was 24C+.

 

All I can think of is that in very westerly or north-westerly months it is a slightly cooler site during the day.

[Weather-history]

Several papers recently have suggested that there's been a slowdown in the gulf stream (possibly in relation to a freshening of the north Atlantic due to the accelerating Greenland ice sheet melt), while we may also be entering into a -ve AMO period. Here's a review of one of the papers and here is another

 

Anywho, I did a post a few weeks ago looking at the Atlantic cold pool, how it was producing record cold temps and moving toward us. I posted up this animation using the ncep/ncar reanalysis data.

 

 

 

Here's an update to that animation showing an extra 2 weeks of data up to June 4th.

 

 

Looking globally, SSTs have been in the top 3 for the last year or so, with many all time records set over the past 12 months. For example, in the last state of the climate report for April, global SSTs were the warmest on record despite the North Atlantic cold (they were 3rd warmest for February and March, and warmest against for January)

 

The April global sea surface temperature was 0.60°C (1.08°F) higher than the 20th century average, marking the highest global ocean temperature on record for the month...   ..... Record cold sea surface temperatures remained in part of the North Atlantic between Canada and the United Kingdom.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504

 

Most of the north Atlantic is looking very cold now, and the cold pool of recent months has definitely moved toward us. The ultimate cause of the cold or the influence it will have on our summer remains uncertain, but anyone putting together a long range forecast and not taking this into account is making a mistake.

 

The anomaly on that chart at the bottom of this post looks like somewhat the description given of the SST cold anomaly during June 1972. Above average above 60N and below 40N with below average in between from Newfoundland to Ireland.

[Summer Sun]

I seem to remember May and June in 2013 were below average months temperature wise May 2013 was the coolest since 1996 then in July we had prolonged heat wave the longest one since 2006

 

The same is happening this year a cooler than average May persisting into June

[Methuselah]

The anomaly on that chart at the bottom of this post looks like somewhat the description given of the SST cold anomaly during June 1972. Above average above 60N and below 40N with below average in between from Newfoundland to Ireland.

But is it cyclical? Can we infer that summer 2015 will be as ghastly as 1972 was? I do hope not!

[Wildswimmer Pete]

But is it cyclical? Can we infer that summer 2015 will be as ghastly as 1972 was? I do hope not!

From memory 1972 might have been a bit chilly but we did see some warmer interludes, however we didn't have that relentless NWesterly so much a feature of the current season.

[hillbilly]

There's something not quite right with the Leconfield station at the moment, in May it only recorded a mean max of 14.8C when everywhere else around it recorded values well into the 15s. On the 5th June it only reached 23.7C when every other site in the area was 24C+.

 

All I can think of is that in very westerly or north-westerly months it is a slightly cooler site during the day.

A bit warmer than here Maximum of 20 deg on one day,today maxed at 16 deg!!