Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[sparky1972]

good morning all, well the outlook for here is chilly but no chance of snow, still thinking this winter is going to be a bust for a good proper cold spell, bring on the spring now and leats hope its nice, warm and sunny to make up for all this rain we have had.

 

[yaffle]

58 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Looking at Thursday uppers are around -4c which isn't great for low level snowfall, however snow fell down to 150m last night with uppers of -2c so anything is possible. Whatever happens I'm in the car thurs/fri and going snow hunting if anyone's up for it!

I'm driving back from Kent Friday lunchtime. What's the betting I don't see a single flake on the way...

Can't wait to get on Terrington Bank. Have to get there this year surely. Better than the Cresta Run...!

[Harsh Climate]

55 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

good morning all, well the outlook for here is chilly but no chance of snow, still thinking this winter is going to be a bust for a good proper cold spell, bring on the spring now and leats hope its nice, warm and sunny to make up for all this rain we have had.

 

 

I disagree, wednesday morning into the afternoon we have our first chance of snow

May be a bit too marginal but those with a little elevation certainly have a chance of seeing something!

 

After that everything is still up in the air, everything to play for. Just look at the UKMO, stunning !

[Harsh Climate]

I wouldn't be suprised if some of us where to see a flake or two of snow tomorrow morning, accumulations not likely but still be nice to see.

[Harsh Climate]

Here's my latest thoughts on this mornings output that I've just posted in the model thread:

 

Looking at the gfs 06z in it's own right a very disapointing run, thankfully in it's essembles it's very much one of the more milder progressive members!

Regarding the essembles one thing to look out for in a possible milder breakdown from the west/south west. Any member that does not go above '0' 850hpa means the mild air hasn't won and at very least we would be under cold surface air with day time temperatures struggling to reach 1 or 2 degrees, So something to look out for.

 

UKMO is perfection 10/10 this morning

A return of the greenland high that many have already written off, no support but never the less nice to see.

 

ECM is middle ground territory this morning, not a bad run at all. 

144h really cold chance of the odd snow shower in places, no sign of an atlantic breakdown, good.

192-240 pretty bog standard but notice the siberian high build, for me an easterly would be on the cards if this run was to play out further, again no sign of atlantic breakdown.

.

 

All in all I would have the chances of a milder atlantic breakdown after next weekend sitting around 40% now. For me that has flipped from 60% to 40% overnight, we are certainly heading in the right direction! Rearding snow nothing has really changed, next week looks very messy but I certainly see snowfall's just quickly cropping up out of the blue and could be just about anywhere. Obviously a little elevation would be hugely beneficial in this set-up.  

[The PIT]

Sadly away from the highest ground this week looks extremely marginal and when everything looks ideal wet bulb dew points etc the one ingredient missing is precipitation.

Basically you'll be looking for pleasant surprises.

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 hour ago, yaffle said:

I'm driving back from Kent Friday lunchtime. What's the betting I don't see a single flake on the way...

Can't wait to get on Terrington Bank. Have to get there this year surely. Better than the Cresta Run...!

Not even sure Terrington Bank will see anything this week, although it seems like a mountain compared to Strensall its only 100m asl. Terrington usually does well from any cold flow East of North, so fingers crossed UKMO is onto something. If it's not gonna snow at least it can dry up as Strensall golf course has been shut for a number of weeks now.

[The PIT]

Thursday seems the best day perhaps we will get evaportive cooling along to help things?

[sparky1972]

we are only 1m above sea level, so there is no chance it will be cold enough for anything to fall as snow

[NorthYorksWeather]

Just now, The PIT said:

Thursday seems the best day perhaps we will get evaportive cooling along to help things?

That is definatley a possibility, especially if the precip arrives say 3-6am, this morning was a good example with light winds and -2c uppers. Downloaded this snow radar app this morning on my phone, no idea how reliable it is but here's what it suggests for tomorrow and also for Thursday morning, certainly looks good if you have decent elevation.

[Cheese Rice]

51 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Thursday seems the best day perhaps we will get evaportive cooling along to help things?

It'll be Night time as well, definitely helping the front with it coming in around midnight allowing temps a chance to fall beforehand.

But like you said it'll be marginal,  I think above 100m should see the lower end of 2-5cm. 200m+ the skies the limit. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Cheese Rice

[Cheese Rice]

Posted on the mod thread....

Shows how marginal it's going to be. May be some disappointed faces on lower ground. 

[saint]

Think it's worth noting that even at just four days out, snow/PPN charts are pretty useless, in fact they can be just hours before! Definitely an interesting week ahead, however! 

[NorthYorksWeather]

2 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Posted on the mod thread....

Shows how marginal it's going to be. May be some disappointed faces on lower ground. 

Look how slack that low is! A recipe for evap cooling, I think for people with my elevation that's our only hope. I reckon 200m is a safe bet currently, could go up/down. North York Moors go up to 450m so aslong as its not higher than that .

[Cheese Rice]

Just now, saint said:

Think it's worth noting that even at just four days out, snow/PPN charts are pretty useless, in fact they can be just hours before! Definitely an interesting week ahead, however! 

It's not the snow charts I'm worried about I don't think getting precipitation will be an issue it's the 850's are on the marginal side regardless and that's unlikely to change. 

If we get light/moderate winds from the west it's game over as well.

For now winds are light and coming from the south so fingers crossed! 

[Cheese Rice]

2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Look how slack that low is! A recipe for evap cooling, I think for people with my elevation that's our only hope. I reckon 200m is a safe bet currently, could go up/down. North York Moors go up to 450m so aslong as its not higher than that .

Yeah I think we'll be fine at our elevation.

But tbh I'd rather it not be marginal to lower ground as that increases the quality of snow for us. But that chart only tells one story I can't tell if there is any warmer air at any other levels. Maybe @johnholmes can shed some light as he's really good at these things 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Cheese Rice

[saint]

Just now, Cheese Rice said:

It's not the snow charts I'm worried about I don't think getting precipitation will be an issue it's the 850's are on the marginal side regardless and that's unlikely to change. 

If we get light/moderate winds from the west it's game over as well.

For now winds are light and coming from the south so fingers crossed! 

Oh I'm not arguing at all, and am agreeing, just putting it out there that members shouldnt rely on PPN charts etc, but the various parameters like 850's, wet bulb etc to get a better idea.

[The PIT]

24 minutes ago, saint said:

Oh I'm not arguing at all, and am agreeing, just putting it out there that members shouldnt rely on PPN charts etc, but the various parameters like 850's, wet bulb etc to get a better idea.

PPN is the most important thing.  Without any PPN the rest is rather mute.

[cowdog]

27 minutes ago, saint said:

Oh I'm not arguing at all, and am agreeing, just putting it out there that members shouldnt rely on PPN charts etc, but the various parameters like 850's, wet bulb etc to get a better idea.

Even then its difficult to judge as proven by the snow last night, where the 850's were only around -2 yet we had snow.

 

Going on past events -6 uppers are enough for the low lying areas round here to get snow we don't need -8's and -6's will be here by Wednesday. As I mentioned there is significant chance of snow tonight in North and West Yorkshire and the 850's will only be around -4c.

[Harsh Climate]

23 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Even then its difficult to judge as proven by the snow last night, where the 850's were only around -2 yet we had snow.

 

Going on past events -6 uppers are enough for the low lying areas round here to get snow we don't need -8's and -6's will be here by Wednesday. As I mentioned there is significant chance of snow tonight in North and West Yorkshire and the 850's will only be around -4c.

Especially for you at 350m  Lying snow is about a 99% certainty for you some point next week.

[cowdog]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Especially for you at 350m  Lying snow is about a 99% certainty for you some point next week.

Still got the snow from last night, it hasn't melted off the fields. Its going to be 'fun' in the morning if it freezes as is likely, thankfully its melted off most of the paths.

[Harsh Climate]

1 hour ago, Cheese Rice said:

Yeah I think we'll be fine at our elevation.

But tbh I'd rather it not be marginal to lower ground as that increases the quality of snow for us. But that chart only tells one story I can't tell if there is any warmer air at any other levels. Maybe @johnholmes can shed some light as he's really good at these things 

 

Thankfully recently moving from otley to guiseley I've gone from 100m to 140m alltitude, could very well make all the difference next week 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking to buy a house in around 2 years time, elevation really is up there when it comes to priority, especially as I could be potentially spending the next 30-50 years there. Its just hard to remain practical when the most remote snowiest villages are miles away from towns, schools, shops etc. I do like the area I live in currently, the highest villages in the Howardian Hills and Wolds are around 170m asl. A bit further away in the Moors your looking at getting above 200m but its very remote. West/South Yorkshire has some very high towns/villages but growing up in York I've always felt fondly about this side of the Pennines. Luckily the fiancee shares the same passion as me and she wants to live in Braemar but I try to remain realistic 

[The PIT]

12oz reduces the snow chances even further unfortunately with unfavorable dew points etc when any PPN is shown.

[Cheese Rice]

Doesn't help that it's linked to a change in atmospheric conditions rather than a variation of precipitation intensity which is also distinctly lacking on the 12z. We loose the initial lobe of -5 850's that rap around the low making it too mild below 300m.

Still no reason to be downbeat, each run will always produce different outcomes at this juncture.  

Edited January 10, 2016 by Cheese Rice