Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Met Office forecast for our region already talking of wintry showers by Monday so they clearly don't see much of a delay in the onset of the cold despite the concerns being aired on the Mod thread.

Looking more and more likely that a tasty and possibly extended spell of real winter weather is on the way.

Amen to that!!

[Love Snow]

1 hour ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Met Office forecast for our region already talking of wintry showers by Monday so they clearly don't see much of a delay in the onset of the cold despite the concerns being aired on the Mod thread.

Looking more and more likely that a tasty and possibly extended spell of real winter weather is on the way.

Amen to that!!

The Model thread gets ruined by people who have no idea and just post when a big pattern change is coming ! I wish the thread would be locked and left to the regular posters it just gets ruined during an up coming weather event !

[Sara_south_yorks]

The mod thread is seriously giving me a headache, are the models as bad as some of the posts in there are making out?

I rely on other people's interpretation of them as I don't know where to start in learning how to read them myself. 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

The 18z GFS is the worst run of the day, we still see cold weather next week and a brief period of snow that turns to rain before the cold air floods back in from the NE, however GFS is prone to swings and the accuracy is usually poorer than the UKMO and ECM so nothing to get too worried about for now, however it cannot be completely discounted. Hopefully it will be a warm outlier and we will see some model agreement tomorrow.

[Sara_south_yorks]

Thank you again vizzy  

[saint]

Yes, GFS was all over the place as a run really. 

Gritters out in Leeds tonight... Bit early guys! Haha. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by saint

[joggs]

Some people's lives(who post in the mod thread) must be like a fiddlers elbow I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad lol.

Once the colds in place you nearly always find some surprises re snowfall in my experience. The pattern n background signals look great for the nxt couple of months tbh.

[Cheese Rice]

I was about to go to sleep but looked at the radar to see oncoming precipitation and a temp of 2.c Dp 1.c 

Don't wanna get too excited cos it may well rain like forecast.

 

[LeeSnowFan]

So should we just give up with "Winter" as it seems it dosen't want us to have a decent snow even this year

[Sara_south_yorks]

17 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

So should we just give up with "Winter" as it seems it dosen't want us to have a decent snow even this year

There is still lots of winter left and set to turn cold next week.

I for one am certainly looking forward to that compared to what we have had to suffer so far.

Am I also right at thinking that maybe if we just hold the faith a little longer there is still time for things to change for the positive once the cold is here, or is that just wishful thinking.

I think we should keep the faith!! For a little longer anyways  

I can't hear the fat lady singing just yet! 

Edited January 8, 2016 by snow*please

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

So should we just give up with "Winter" as it seems it dosen't want us to have a decent snow even this year

Don't worry about any wrist-slitting in the MO thread. The bad models runs at the moment are diluting the cold for southern areas and reducing the longevity. 

The fact is, up here in good ol' Yorkshire, the weather is going to get cold next week, with a good chance of snow from any disturbances crossing the country + wintry showers on the coast. 

Next week will be interesting, and some are sure to be surprised

[Rob Heselwood]

Yet another wet start to the day, with an early morning shower, and a some light rain mid morning. The afternoon was dry and part cloudy.

Max temp 7.9C

Min Temp 2.6C

Wind Gust 12mph Sou' Westerly

Wind Average 7.4mph Sou' Easterly

Rainfall 0.2mm

Barometer 993mb

[NorthYorksWeather]

Yes it seemed yesterday afternoon all models were pointing towards snow and cold with a solid set of ensembles, and my positivity must of jinxed it. Although we still have cold air approaching from the NW next week with temperature below average, now no models are pointing towards any significant snow IMBY, which at the end of the day is all I'm after. As Steve posts above we still have snow chances if any disturbances crop up in the cold flow next week, and it will be nice to see some winter sunshine have a week where the temps are below average. 

[Cheese Rice]

Oh dear not what we want to see on tonight's run.

It's not looking good but I'll hold out at getting too disappointed till we reach Sundays output as alot can change. 

 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

ECM remains cold from 96 to the end of the run but snowfall is limited, potential for that Azores low to give some frontal snow in places. Funny how we were chasing a easterly a few weeks a go then last few days we've been chasing a Northerly and now we are back at square one with tonights ECM  Goes to show how snowfall isn't guaranteed until it gets within the 72 hour period, I don't usually get excited about snowfall until its within range of the NMM model after 10 years on her but myself and many fell trap to the fantasy charts at +120. With the cold hanging around nearby I'm hopeful of something cropping up snow-wise in the next few weeks.

[Sara_south_yorks]

So the fat lady has taken centre stage then...Oh dear!

Hopefully things will change soon and give us some snow.

We more than deserve it! Gutted!

[Winter Cold]

yeah its just gutting isnt it. The changes today have been large. Im so angry I could scream sometimes with the UK weather!!!!

We had intra model, cross model and ensemble support the other day for something noteworthy to be happening soon and now its all just fell apart. Just what does it take to get us a little bit of cold and snow.

I think this week ive actually learnt and realised just how amazingly special Dec 10 and Mar 13 were!!

/rant

[NorthYorksWeather]

 

Back to the more reliable timeframe on the NMM for Europe we see the -6c line heading South over our region on Tuesday evening, it's from here on we should look for snow chances and cold night minimas

I've decided I'm sticking with the NMM from here on in to save any more dramas

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

I don't think there is much need for despondency for us folk oop north.

Still a cold week coming up maybe longer and I certainly feel that there will be some unexpected surprises snow wise next week.

Maybe not feet of the stuff but enough to tide us over until what I feel will be the main event later in winter...

[Winter Cold]

6 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

I don't think there is much need for despondency for us folk oop north.

Still a cold week coming up maybe longer and I certainly feel that there will be some unexpected surprises snow wise next week.

Maybe not feet of the stuff but enough to tide us over until what I feel will be the main event later in winter...

Well I hope your right. I agree I think we might see something from a little feature or trough towards end of the week. Everything crossed!

[saint]

Indeed, have quickly learnt since moving up here that the majority of the negativity in the MOD thread is usually to do with cold not being as potent down south.  Would say the region still has a good chance at seeing snow surprises next week, and I know some are only looking for snow, it'll be very welcome simply to have some cold and frost, especially after this winter! 

[Cheese Rice]

Although I'm disappointed with the NH profile for Yorkshire the 18z is a great run. Alot of snow potential. I Think Leeds/Sheffield should do really well.

 

It is pretty abysmal for the south so thank God we aren't in the Midlands southwards.

[saint]

1 hour ago, Cheese Rice said:

Although I'm disappointed with the NH profile for Yorkshire the 18z is a great run. Alot of snow potential. I Think Leeds/Sheffield should do really well.

 

It is pretty abysmal for the south so thank God we aren't in the Midlands southwards.

 

What's the NH profile CR? Although I've been on here for years now, I've gone a bit off weather watching, and am somewhat out the loop! 

 

I do hope you're right about Leeds, though I have no idea why we might do well haha!

[Cheese Rice]

NH = Northern Hemispheric pattern

 

The cold has a better chance of getting entrenched here than the south, which sounds like state the obvious but when the cold is struggling to make it far south we need tap into the -5 850''s for as long as possible.

[saint]

Ahh, cheers CR!