Yorkshire and Lincolnshire - Weather Chat

[Terminal Moraine]

I'll be very interested to read the analyses of both this and the Cumbrian flood event in 'Weather' magazine in a few months time to see where they sit in a historical context, regarding both the amount of rain which fell and the river levels which resulted from them.

 It does make you wonder whether we are pushing new meteorological boundaries  when properties which have stood for 200 years are flooded for the first time, unless of course the situation regarding increased runoff has been exacerbated by factors such as removal of woodland or the increasing use of hard landscaping.

In the meantime I can only sympathise with the unfortunate people who have been so badly affected, particularly those caught in the quite shameful situation of being refused insurance due to prior flooding.

There are many millions of us who have never suffered flooding, and are not likely to (If my house ever floods the Derbyshire valleys will be under the best part of 900 feet of water!) who, I'm sure, pay a small amount on their premiums each year just in case it ever happens. Surely it is not too great a thing to ask that those vulnerable to the occasional flood are not just refused insurance point blank.

The amount involved to replace people's belongings and restore their homes, although huge to the individual, is small change to the large insurance companies. The need to make a profit should be counterbalanced by the volume of  human misery.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Terminal Moraine

[Rob Heselwood]

A cloudy start giving way to clear skies with plenty of sun.

Max Temp 9.4C

Min Temp 4.7C

Wind Gust 15mph Nor' Westerly

Wind Average 6.8mph Easterly

Barometer 1019mb Rising

[mike57]

4 hours ago, Terminal Moraine said:

In the meantime I can only sympathise with the unfortunate people who have been so badly affected, particularly those caught in the quite shameful situation of being refused insurance due to prior flooding.

The problem is that insurance companies are run for the profit of their shareholders, and any executive who continued to authorise insurance at a loss would quickly find him/her self in possession of a P45.

I think the issue of flood cover in high risk areas needs to be a government decision, to for example limit insurance companies liability and pay out the difference, the money would be taxpayers money, and as a taxpayer I think this would be a reasonable use of my contributions.

This would also encourage spending on flood defences as there would then be a direct saving.

We also seem to getting more frequent and more severe events, I have tried to think back, I have been interested in meteorology and climate since my schooldays (nearly 50 years ago!) and floods seems to be worse and more frequent. Taking York as an example I remember one major flooding event in York in the early 80's, and one in around 1976 (I think at the end of that hot summer, not sure...) but flood defences have improved since then.

More recently York has suffered in 2000, 2007 and this year. Are we getting more significant events now? I would like to see a plot of significant UK events by year for say the last 100 years, no doubt the data is out there. Did similar events happen say 50 years ago, but because of the advent the internet and related technology we can now share experiences with others so we are more aware.

Although 'global warming' gets the blame there are other factors at work, land use, building on flood plains, and often flood defences in one area will increase risks else where. In the same way that in some areas it has been accepted that coastal erosion cannot be stopped the same decision may be have to be taken with flooding.

 

[Cheese Rice]

I don't think building more flood defenses is the answer, we shouldn't stop mother nature. That river down the road a hundred years ago probably wasn't as big as it is now.

Its normal for the landscape to change it doesn't stay static, and trying to make it so causes more problems elsewhere. And while this part of the world seems to be getting wetter, other parts of Britain (south east) seem to be getting drier. I think the idea that once a house is built it should stay there forever is silly, you build because at the time the building was in a suitable location, when its no longer suitable you move on.

Its this mantra that we rule the world is what is destroying the planet, let nature take its own course. 

Edited December 27, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[cheese]

18 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I don't think building more flood defenses is the answer, we shouldn't stop mother nature. That river down the road a hundred years ago probably wasn't as big as it is now.

Its normal for the landscape to change it doesn't stay static, and trying to make it so causes more problems elsewhere. And while this part of the world seems to be getting wetter, other parts of Britain (south east) seem to be getting drier. I think the idea that once a house is built it should stay there forever is silly, you build because at the time the building was in a suitable location, when its no longer suitable you move on.

Its this mantra that we rule the world is what is destroying the planet, let nature take its own course. 

It's easy to say that, though, when you are not the one being affected. I think, unless people have direct experience in having their homes completely gutted by floodwater, they should keep their opinions to themselves. People are not going to leave their homes behind - especially if they have lived in a particular area for so long. Abandoning  vast areas of the country because we're too cheap to build flood defences or too stupid to do so effectively will cost far more in the long-term. Look at the centre of York - partially underwater. Do you suggest a decently-sized city such has York - a city that has existed for 2000 years - should be left to ruin because of flooding?

This part of the world isn't getting wetter either - I'm not sure where you got that idea from. Over the past 5 years, only 2012 had above average rainfall. All other years had below average rainfall. And even if it was getting wetter, encouraging people to move to the SE would simply cause more problems because it would result in more development on greenbelt and flood plains in an area of the country already stretched to breaking point - an area of the country that also suffered severe flooding in 2007 and more recently in 2014. That's not smart.

Edited December 27, 2015 by cheese

[Cheese Rice]

24 minutes ago, cheese said:

It's easy to say that, though, when you are not the one being affected. I think, unless people have direct experience in having their homes completely gutted by floodwater, they should keep their opinions to themselves. People are not going to leave their homes behind - especially if they have lived in a particular area for so long. Abandoning  vast areas of the country because we're too cheap to build flood defences or too stupid to do so effectively will cost far more in the long-term. Look at the centre of York - partially underwater. Do you suggest a decently-sized city such has York - a city that has existed for 2000 years - should be left to ruin because of flooding?

This part of the world isn't getting wetter either - I'm not sure where you got that idea from. Over the past 5 years, only 2012 had above average rainfall. All other years had below average rainfall. And even if it was getting wetter, encouraging people to move to the SE would simply cause more problems because it would result in more development on greenbelt and flood plains in an area of the country already stretched to breaking point - an area of the country that also suffered severe flooding in 2007 and more recently in 2014. That's not smart.

 

But why should the majority of hard working tax paying public pay for flood defenses for a minority who live on flood plains? It doesn't make economic sense, there is no value for money. We are not talking vast areas of the country, the flooding in Leeds affected the industrial low lying areas in the valley, there's a reason why there were practically zero houses flooded in Leeds because they are all built on the slopes not slap bang next to a river which is bound to flood over time. 

Of course cities like Leeds & York should see flood defenses in its city center as its the CBD where most of the regions economies are based but outside of that there really isn't a case, and if there was one they would have been built by now.

If need be the government should buy the houses of those who are at particular risk of flooding allowing them to live in a less flood prone area.

[cheese]

But it isn't just flood plains like I have said already. It's just as much water runoff in the  hills affecting the Pennine towns as it is housing on floodplains around York

There is a case for flood defences in Leeds city centre but they haven't been built and plans were shelved in 2011, so you are clearly wrong.  I think we should limit or stop building on floodplains but those already living in flood-prone areas should receive protection. The parts of York flooding now haven't flooded since the 1980s so it isn't like they would be hoovering up taxpayers' money every year.

Edited December 27, 2015 by cheese

[jonboy]

11 hours ago, cheese said:

But it isn't just flood plains like I have said already. It's just as much water runoff in the  hills affecting the Pennine towns as it is housing on floodplains around York

There is a case for flood defences in Leeds city centre but they haven't been built and plans were shelved in 2011, so you are clearly wrong.  I think we should limit or stop building on floodplains but those already living in flood-prone areas should receive protection. The parts of York flooding now haven't flooded since the 1980s so it isn't like they would be hoovering up taxpayers' money every year.

In regard to areas in york not flooding since the 80's let us not forget this fact the flood defence was working around the river foss until the pumping station failed at the junction of the ouse which meant the environment agency then lifted the barrier between the ouse and the foss thus holding back water in the foss. This should never have happened. This level of flooding of the Foss is down to the environment agency

[tinybill]

40 minutes ago, jonboy said:

In regard to areas in york not flooding since the 80's let us not forget this fact the flood defence was working around the river foss until the pumping station failed at the junction of the ouse which meant the environment agency then lifted the barrier between the ouse and the foss thus holding back water in the foss. This should never have happened. This level of flooding of the Foss is down to the environment agency

i agree  it should had never had happen was there some other places  in york  if they had not lifted  the barrier  flooded i  think there should be a   big    lookin  to find out why  , and the people who got flooded should   sue  the  environment agency

[Rob Heselwood]

A cloudy and dry day, fairly non descript really, but some gusts of wind in the morning.

Max temp 10.2C

Min temp 8.9C

Wind Gust 19.6mph East Nor' Easterly

Wind Average East SWou' Easterly

Barometer 1008mb Falling

[Gray-Wolf]

My health means I'm stuck watching all the horrors in my end of the valley without being able to chip in as so many others are. I was able to go 200m toward Hebden earlier and the sights are heartbreaking. Schools, homes, businesses all fronted by everything that used to be inside them. Army working on damaged infrastructure alongside hundreds of volunteers from around the country.

Now we await Frank and how the river will deal with any surges now that it is filled with detritus from Saturday. 

[Cheese Rice]

The EURO4 suggests a sting in its tail with Frank, could be alot of rainfall, though the PPN accumulations are surprisingly low.

Perhaps a hint of wintryness in the showers on New Years eve...

 

 

Edited December 29, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[cowdog]

Tadcasters Bridge has just collapsed -

That makes the seconds major bridge 'collapse' in the region from the storm (other was Elland Bridge)

[Rob Heselwood]

A light shower early morning, but then dry and cloudy all day, with a light breeze.

Max Temp 11.8C

Min Temp 8.4C

Wind Gust 14mph Sou' Easterly

Wind Average 8mph Sou' Sou' Easterly

Rainfall 0.4mm

Barometer 1013mb Falling

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

It looks like we will just be the wrong side of marginal for any wintry weather over the next few days.

I do feel however that with a sinking jet and the demise of the Euro Slug our continued patience will pay off and that a decent cold spell will materialise before the end of January.

Fingers crossed anyway!!  

[tinybill]

Interesting   nasty squall trying to form   near  york  deep,red in places  to be prepared  for nasty weather  very  soon

[Cold Winter]

Winds picked up a lot here near Malton as the squall approaches. Probably the strongest winds we've had this winter.

Just seen a tweet from North Yorkshire Police about violent winds in the Stokesley area bringing down trees and taking tiles off roofs.

[The PIT]

Squall line fizzling out as it moves very slowly towards us. No great rainfall rates on it just some greens further north some oranges. Must be one of the slowest moving line squalls ever been watching it for hours.

[The PIT]

Alas squall line you don't deserve the name.  Hardly any rain on it now just light rain. Gave  a total of 0.4mm.

[The PIT]

Rain very reluctant to clear and it seems to reforming over wales and pushing north again.

[Rob Heselwood]

A dry start with strong winds, then rain a bit later, heavy by late morning.The rain coninued to mid afternoon, then became drier.

Max Temp 12.8C

Min Temp 8.3C

Wind Gust 27mph Sou' Sou' Easterly

Wind Average 14.6mph West Sou' Westerly

Barometer 1001mb Falling

Rianfall 4.6mm

[Cheese Rice]

I think the models are trending towards a slightly colder scenario in the short term, the cold air inching ever so close to the UK. We are always going to struggle as it isn't a true Scandi High but the period between the 5-7th appears to be a tipping point where we could either be under inches of snow or cold rain.

The 18z max temps for Yorkshire are projected to be;

5th: 2-5.c 

6th: 1-5.c 

Ideally we need the low be a slider on the 7th but the angle of attack is unfavorable *for now*, a negative tilt could pull in some cold enough uppers for some snowfall and in this scenario uppers of only -2/-4 could do the trick. 

As it stands I'd say there's a low-moderate chance (25%) of snow on high ground in Northern England which is better than yesterday's zero chance of snowfall. For lower ground it isn't looking favorable, but as we saw a few weeks back across the North East a slow moving front with uppers of only -2/-3 can be supportive for low level snow. 

I'm cautiously optimistic for the output and If anything it looks to be getting alot cooler over the coming week.

Edited December 31, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[The PIT]

On 28/12/2015 at 10:53 AM, jonboy said:

 

After this afternoons shower roads will tricky later as I suspect the gritters round sheffield won't be out and if they are it'll be one spec of grit per square mile.

[Rob Heselwood]

A dry start today with a brisk SW wind. The morning remained dry, but a heavy shower  late afternoon

Max Temp 8.6C

Windchill Temp 6C

Min Temp 3.6C

Wind Gust 20mph

Rainfall 1.4mm

Barometer 1004mb Falling

Edited December 31, 2015 by Rob Heselwood

[LeeSnowFan]

Afternoon all

 

Certainly a different feel to the weather today, alot colder than of late! 3C here but felt more like -2!

 

8-10 weeks left of winter I do hope we will get a decent snow spell before Spring!