Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[cheese]

Summer Sun - that chart you posted is for 3AM. A high of 4C in June is not going to happen, not now not ever, unless you live on top of Great Dun Fell.

Edited June 9, 2015 by cheese

[Nouska]

Even the maxes on the ECM look very depressed in the south.

 

 

Still 'in-house' disagreement showing for the weekend - this little cut off low playing mind games with more than just me!

 

GFS cooler and a very notable anomaly for the south, next Monday.

 

 

These charts are not mean anomalies - valid for time stamp.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

The 06z GFS in the short term extends the warm/very warm region further on Friday, anywhere in England and Wales could possibly hit the mid-twenties with 80F again possible in the south east.

 

The weekend looks unsettled still though it will turn drier through Sunday, the warm air hangs on in the south on Saturday before all areas turn unseasonably cool on Sunday.

 

Nice to see we can achieve the average for November at this time of year 

 

Beyond that conditions do improve, that said the ECM suite isn't exactly inspiring with the high setting up to the south west of the UK again with a predominantly north westerly flow. The GFS looks a little better in that regard. That said the high should be close enough to keep winds light and allow warm air to push into the UK allowing temperatures to recover to around or slightly above average levels after the unseasonably cool weather in the 5-7 day range.

ECM

Edited June 9, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GFS again shows the risk of some low overnight 'highs' early next week with some towns and cities down to 3c or 4c

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure building in across the south next week and eventually widespread warmth and anticyclonic, mid 20's celsius for a large swathe of the UK...what a cracking run through low res.

Edited June 9, 2015 by Frosty.

[legritter]

The Gfs 00z shows warmer and more humid weather spreading up from the near continent across England and Wales, becoming very warm in the far south on Thursday and quite widely across the south and southeast on Friday with 26-27c for the SE. Thundery weather with torrential downpours push north during Friday but with sunny spells too.

What really caught my eye on this run is the mid to late June period which shows high pressure building in close to the south through next week and then a major change to very warm / hot anticyclonic conditions for the whole country, a north / south split for most of next week with the south having a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather the north of the UK staying unsettled for a while longer but looking further ahead, these charts would really put the Flaming into June.

yes looking at charts and Data this morning theres plenty to give us hope of a warmer high pressure dominated spell of weather from next week .and with the sun or should i say daylight hours being at their maximum every possibility of some great bbq weather with STellas ,but certainly now looks like a very wet for some and potential thundery spell looming and attacking us from the continent ,certainly not boring but i,m sure many twists yet to come as the models firm up ,great to see some interesting posts ,cheers gang . perhaps that nagging chilly wind as got the message .

[Tamara]

.This high amplitude Phase 2 onwards to Phase 3 progression is now gaining further traction, and looking set to providing the breakdown of the amplified ridge to the west through next week and ushering in a more mobile phase of weather to follow the little pic n' mix later this week and into the weekend.

 

*So, caution caveat of yesterday removed just a little*

 

That traditional NW/SE split looks more and more likely

 

< there a fair bit of talk has been about anomalous widespread UK-wide coolness. Once again, acknowledgement is given to those much further NW with the much lower temperatures that persist there, who will be seeing things from a different perspective of course

 

Whatever weather preferences one may have, the capriciousness and unpredictability of "local" weather in the UK never ceases to surprise

The models are now clearly advertising changes upstream through next week which removes the very messy synoptic picture of the weekend and start of next week, with that anticipated more mobile pattern coming into view and downstream ridging returning, at the least across the south, as the Azores High is pulled eastwards.

 

This underpins the suggested NW/SE split of recent days

 

The GWO strong amplitude progression through phase 2 clearly is being anticipated in the GEFS suite as emerging right into higher AAM tendency Phase 3. Hence the bullish modelling of the Azores High and some lovely summer weather quite extensively over the UK.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfsgwo_1.png

 

No particular intra day GFS output should of course be taken at face value - whether that shows air frosts in June, or 27C in June, but much thanks as always to Frosty/Karl in this respect to posting, illustrating and describing these enticing summer charts so well   His enthusiasm for all the seasons, and weather in general (especially in the key viewing seasons of winter and summer) is always good to read and offers some cheer as a welcome antidote to some of the depressingly unseasonal charts that regularly get hand-picked at distance

 

The onward bound journey to GWO Phase 2/3 has gained significant traction as observed yesterday, but caution should be taken in these FI charts of the GFS, as appealing as they are.

 

The root stem of the uncertainty is the convective action in the Indian Ocean, and continued modelling disagreements as to the longevity of this event. Todays update not yet available, but latest ECM MJO modelling still keen on more progressive Indian Ocean passage compared to the GEFS ensembles - and this has ramifications to the overall AAM budget (weightings in terms of driving global momentum up or down).

 

This outcome, will in turn determine the future direction orbit of the GWO. The more progressive Indian Ocean option suggests a rather less optimistic view of progress speed of upturn in AAM tendency - and it is for this reason that the ECM suite is, right at this time, somewhat less keen to progress the Azores High as extensively eastwards and northwards as the GFS

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

For the time being at least, until the picture becomes clearer, the "safe money" would be not to over anticipate the arrival of full summer as currently suggested by the GFS - but to take a half way house.

 

Hence that split across the UK looks a best estimate  - at least for the time being.

 

My usual broad-brush weather- on- the- ground approach here -  but temperatures in the shorter term are set to see-saw in complicit obedience to the dogs breakfast of upcoming opposing synoptics to the north and to the south. Coolness especially today, then a warm-up over the next couple of days (courtesy of thundery destabilisation from the continent which will specifically influence the southern half of the UK), coolness returning as the thundery trough departs - and then a probable warm-up again through next week as the pattern adjusts eastwards.

 

Perspective (unbiased hopefully) attempted towards the maze of opposing and sometimes contradictory charts that get regularly picked and posted on here, according to preference. I would add in this respect that Gibby's summaries (amongst others of course) are usually always a reliable source of information - with a well balanced, unbiased reflection of closer "weather" detail from his model analysis, such that the nature of those similar to my own background outlook assessment posts deliberately, with the best of intentions, don't seek, or need, to provide

[coldcomfort]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure building in across the south next week and eventually widespread warmth and anticyclonic, mid 20's celsius for a large swathe of the UK...what a cracking run through low res.

Cooler, wet weather set to return on the 25th though.

 

[summer blizzard]

Cooler, wet weather set to return on the 25th though.

 

 

Think people are a tad giddy. The outlook is mostly good but the low around day 10 will influence us somewhat (though GFS is least progressive and GEM most, Euro halfway) and we have Saturdays's rainfest. It's a good summary spell but not the 3 weeks without rain variety (indeed chances are most people won't go further than a week before the next week front). 

[Karl83]

Cooler, wet weather set to return on the 25th though.

 

Over 2 weeks away...

Edited June 9, 2015 by Karl83

[coldcomfort]

Frosty posted charts for 2 weeks away above Karl83, but no one has questioned their validity, so are they OK because they show warm weather?

[Mokidugway]

Frosty posted charts for 2 weeks away above Karl83, but no one has questioned their validity, so are they OK because they show warm weather?

perhaps people prefer warm weather in summer ?? .....

[coldcomfort]

perhaps people prefer warm weather in summer ?? .....

As do I, but I also thought the thread was about expressing what the models show, rather than expressing personal preferences. Of course one can argue posting warm charts 2 weeks hence is valid, because they are available from GFS and therefore fit for 'model discussion', but if that is to be the case then all charts from that timeframe, whatever they show, should also be treated equally in my opinion.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows strong support for the Azores high to build in during next week and bring increasingly settled conditions to at least the southern half of the UK. For what it's worth, I think the Azores high will build north east next week and bring a fine and warm spell.

[Frosty.]

Frosty posted charts for 2 weeks away above Karl83, but no one has questioned their validity, so are they OK because they show warm weather?

Actually, I posted gfs 6z charts for the whole of low res, and much of it shows very warm and settled weather, if you are going to be critical of someone, at least get your facts right!

[johnholmes]

certainly hoping the 12z GFS run is not correct for late Friday into Saturday evening. I would like some rain but not the amount and length of the rainfall it is currently showing thanks?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

[Polar Maritime]

Yes John, Some very heavy rain for Fri/sat as a front slowly pushes up from the South. Straddling against the slack Northerly, Which will bring much cooler conditions for the North with -5 uppers pushing into Scotland for the weekend as a weak cold front slowly pushes South.

 

Edited June 9, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[A.J]

just for the record, frosty normally posts a series of charts from a whole plethora of time scales, and accordingly posts summaries of his thoughts on said charts.....some might verify, some don't.....but to state that cooler, wet weather is set to return on the 25th with one chart (way way out in FI) posted is hardly a valid comparison to frosty's posts......All model discussion is valid in this thread, even LRF modelling such as the CFS, but please, for everyone who views this thread, T192 onwards is for trend spotting, not forecasting per se

[Frosty.]

just for the record, frosty normally posts a series of charts from a whole plethora of time scales, and accordingly posts summaries of his thoughts on said charts.....some might verify, some don't.....but to state that cooler, wet weather is set to return on the 25th with one chart (way way out in FI) posted is hardly a valid comparison to frosty's posts......All model discussion is valid in this thread, even LRF modelling such as the CFS, but please, for everyone who views this thread, T192 onwards is for trend spotting, not forecasting per se

Cheers aj, tried to pm you

[Summer Sun]

After an unsettled weekend UKMO and GFS both show things slowly improving early next week

 

 

The 850's will still be around zero to start with but given some sunshine and light winds it would feel pleasant enough by day though nights could still be on the chilly side

[Frosty.]

The southeast in particular looks very warm and humid on Friday according to the Gfs 12z, could reach 80F and across southern UK in general it will be warm and humid, quite a continental feel to Friday with sunny spells, however, there also looks like being a lot of heavy and persistent thundery rain moving north across England and wales, could be some big storms and there is a risk of localised flooding. Looking ahead to next week, high pressure builds in close to the south which is where the driest and sunniest conditions would be with pleasantly warm temps, gradually reaching the low 20's celsius. This run shows a north / south split next week with northern uk generally less settled and cooler. I'm hoping we will see the Azores high eventually bring a nationwide warm / very warm and settled extended outlook.

[SE Blizzards]

In all the years i've been a weather model watcher i really can't recall a time when i seen predicted night time temperatures to ever be this low the week leading up to the Summer Solstice. According to the GFS 12Z Some areas could be seeing Temperatures 1 to 3 degrees BELOW freezing. Brrrr!!

 

 

 

 

These are just 3 examples, but to be honest there are many other nights too during the next 7 - 10 days when night time temperatures get significantly low for the time of year.

 

.....Time to dig out those Winter woollies!     Lol!

Edited June 9, 2015 by SE Blizzards

[Frank Trough]

In all the years i've been a weather model watcher i really can't recall a time when i seen predicted night time temperatures to ever be this low the week leading up to the Summer Solstice. According to the GFS 12Z Some areas could be seeing Temperatures 1 to 3 degrees BELOW freezing. Brrrr!!

 

 

 

 

These are just 3 examples, but to be honest there are many other nights too during the next 7 - 10 days when night time temperatures get significantly low for the time of year.

 

.....Time to dig out those Winter woollies!     Lol!

 

i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer. Also worth noting the last couple of GEM runs haven't made much of the pressure rise next week - much flatter than the GFS and ECM so we'll see how that goes.

 

Edited June 9, 2015 by Certain kind of fool

[egret]

i think those temps will be modified somewhat nearer verification - the GEM and to an extent the UKMO are not as cool. But no doubt there will be some chilly nights and likewise any proper warmth does seems to be eroded as it gets nearer.

 

Agreed, but its still bizarre - to think we might have been hoping for those charts in January! 

[William of Walworth]

just for the record, frosty normally posts a series of charts from a whole plethora of time scales, and accordingly posts summaries of his thoughts on said charts.....some might verify, some don't.....but to state that cooler, wet weather is set to return on the 25th with one chart (way way out in FI) posted is hardly a valid comparison to frosty's posts......All model discussion is valid in this thread, even LRF modelling such as the CFS, but please, for everyone who views this thread, T192 onwards is for trend spotting, not forecasting per se

 

 

Thanks for adding that context. I was pretty confused by the single (rain-dominated!) chart which coldcomfort selected (or cherrypicked?) for Thursday 25th, which seemed somewhat? out of line (to say the least!) with some of the other trends being suggested for later this month. Admittedly anything at all that's suggested for week 2 from now is deep FI anyway, and summerlover though I am, I do keep telling myself that FI is FI and that I should not be building up too much hope for HP to dominate right through to the end of June.

 

But still. It does seem to me that it's not only settled-weather preferrers on here who show strong preferences/biases.