Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

I'm not sure exactly how to read that either, Mushy. How does one convert anomalies into synoptic charts? But it does look promising...I think!

 

The surface features will be in rough proximity of the Upper air but having said that this evening's GEFs isn't in agreement with that chart.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[mushymanrob]

Hi Mushy, are you sure you meant to say Northeasterly and not east/southeasterly. ?

 

True , a hard to grasp anomoly chart , had a little dabble with a paint job trying to work out the jet flow..

 

post-2797-0-93780700-1434127738.gif post-2797-0-93780700-1434127737.gif

 

A bit all over the place i`m afraid, but it would be nice to see the upper trough around Greenland dragged down towards Biscay. I am a lot confuzzled as to the seemingly blank area sub tropical Atlantic where the Azores high should be, cant see it being replaced by low pressure at this time of year.

 

 hi , yes i meant northeasterly, but im reading the hight anomaly like a synoptic so im probably wrong! lol

[Methuselah]

 hi , yes i meant northeasterly, but im reading the hight anomaly like a synoptic so im probably wrong! lol

I tend to do that, too, Mushy!

[knocker]

 hi , yes i meant northeasterly, but im reading the hight anomaly like a synoptic so im probably wrong! lol

 

I don't think you are wrong. That chart would indicate a surface feature of HP Scandinavia that would give a NE. Would be useful to have contours as well.

Edited June 12, 2015 by knocker

[Milhouse]

The ECM is a very good run for fans of settled and warm weather, and if it verifued it would surely become very warm across soutehrn England later on next week. Instead of cool northwesterlies later next week we get 10c hpa upper temperatures spilling in off the Atlantic. High pressure cant quite manage to transfer to the east of the UK but with some warm air resident over the UK we would still see some very summery conditions quite widely.

 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

very good runs for me, decent warm sunny weather, and not hot/humid, not a fan of heat, but want sun and temps 21-25C with light/no wind

[Nouska]

if im reading this right, the upper high shifts from the southwest up to our northeast, giving us a warm northeasterly feed? i do remember sometime in the mid 80's a northeasterly, beautiful clear blue sky, cooling breeze and 28c. maybe this would repeat that?

00gfs700_maps.d11.2.gif

 

Hi Mushy, the 12Z anomaly looks a bit different (especially from my perspective) but what it does show is that it is very like the phase four, high amplitude MJO composite for June. I see the UKMO wants to whizz the MJO into high amplitude four in the course of the coming week. I'm showing the Z500 rather than Z700 and also including the height charts to compare to anomalies.

 

     

  

 

Sources.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[Summer Sun]

ECM makes very little of an unsettled blip mid week only the far north of Scotland prone to some rain / showers

 

 

+10 850's start to show their hand as well given the right conditions temps could get into the high 20's during this run

[A.J]

a few posts hidden, can we stick to model output discussion please

[knocker]

Hi Mushy, the 12Z anomaly looks a bit different (especially from my perspective) but what it does show is that it is very like the phase four, high amplitude MJO composite for June. I see the UKMO wants to whizz the MJO into high amplitude four in the course of the coming week. I'm showing the Z500 rather than Z700 and also including the height charts to compare to anomalies.

 

     

  

 

Sources.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

Hi Nouska

 

I see on those charts the upper high is now to the NW/W of the UK rather than the NE thus the more northerly flow over the UK Something the ens isn't following, in fact it's looking at developing LP to the NW.

Edited June 12, 2015 by knocker

[Nouska]

Hi Nouska

 

I see on those charts the upper high is now to the NW/W of the UK rather than the NE thus the more northerly flow over the UK Something the ens isn't following, in fact it's looking at developing LP to the NW.

 

At eleven days out, there will be many changes before the detail is settled. Even the GFS day eight charts are very different to the ECM - I'll be hoping for the latter - I saw enough rainfall last night to suffice for the month!

[mushymanrob]

Hi Mushy, the 12Z anomaly looks a bit different (especially from my perspective) but what it does show is that it is very like the phase four, high amplitude MJO composite for June. I see the UKMO wants to whizz the MJO into high amplitude four in the course of the coming week. I'm showing the Z500 rather than Z700 and also including the height charts to compare to anomalies.

 

     

  

 

Sources.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/model_guidance.php?dayin=11

 

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

hi... thanks for that.... either way its still looking fairly good though yes?

[knocker]

At eleven days out, there will be many changes before the detail is settled. Even the GFS day eight charts are very different to the ECM - I'll be hoping for the latter - I saw enough rainfall last night to suffice for the month!

 

Agreed vis the detail but the anomalies have been looking pretty settled for a while now although the HP has less of a SW orientation moving a tad east influenced by the trough mid Atlantic which the GEFS makes slightly more of.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 12, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts I use seem pretty solid re a 500mb ridge building pretty much over the UK with the +ve centre looking just a bit west of Eire. The detail, as ever, will come from runs on the synoptic models, closer to the time frame. But 6-15 days, possibly longer looks more ridge than trough affected and the marked +ve and ridging off western Alaska remains on the 6-10 day and to some extent on the 8-14 as well. This should prevent any marked ridging in the Greenland area with troughing in that area more likely thus aiding a flow in the eastern Atlantic from south of west. The predicted heights over southern UK from NOAA suggest a bit above 576dm with a source fairly well south over N America. This is a rise in heights from 3-4 days ago suggesting somewhat warmer surface values?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

[Cloud 10]

The anomaly charts I use seem pretty solid re a 500mb ridge building pretty much over the UK with the +ve centre looking just a bit west of Eire. The detail, as ever, will come from runs on the synoptic models, closer to the time frame. But 6-15 days, possibly longer looks more ridge than trough affected and the marked +ve and ridging off western Alaska remains on the 6-10 day and to some extent on the 8-14 as well. This should prevent any marked ridging in the Greenland area with troughing in that area more likely thus aiding a flow in the eastern Atlantic from south of west. The predicted heights over southern UK from NOAA suggest a bit above 576dm with a source fairly well south over N America. This is a rise in heights from 3-4 days ago suggesting somewhat warmer surface values?

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

 

 

I'm sure most would take these sort of late June anomalies if they were to verify.

 

 

 

I've booked some time off work at the end of the month though, which could yet scupper the whole setup.

[summer blizzard]

It's a good thing people are asleep because 18z goes for the juggular (with some support from GEM)..

 

Breakdown by day 9 on 18z GFS...

 

 

Goes bonkers with the Greenland Heights in FI..

 

[mushymanrob]

It's a good thing people are asleep because 18z goes for the juggular (with some support from GEM)..

 

Breakdown by day 9 on 18z GFS...

 

 

Goes bonkers with the Greenland Heights in FI..

 

 

eh?... what greenland high? that suggests the azores high and a scandinavian high are linked with a strong ridge across scotland. thats not a bad chart at all as the uppers suggest some warmth , even if its not particually settled. i dont see much wet and certainly no 07,08,12.

that synoptic chart is supported by (its own) anomaly chart i posted yesterday.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS does show cooler/unsettled weather from around Mid-Summer pushing in from the N/W this morning. Turning Easterly drawing a warm Continental flow by the last week of June with High Pressure setting up over the UK.

 

Edited June 13, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[AWD]

eh?... what greenland high? that suggests the azores high and a scandinavian high are linked with a strong ridge across scotland. thats not a bad chart at all as the uppers suggest some warmth , even if its not particually settled. i dont see much wet and certainly no 07,08,12.

that synoptic chart is supported by (its own) anomaly chart i posted yesterday.

I think he was on about the 18z GFS output.

Those charts have now updated to the 0z GFS output.

[knocker]

No appreciable difference between the 12 and 00 anomalies

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Edited June 13, 2015 by knocker

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 13TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening trough of Low pressure slow moving acoss Central parts of England and Wales will weaken further and return SE across SE Britain as pressure builds from the West tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow to the North of the UK ebbing and flowing a little South then ridging back North later in the week. The flow then becomes more cyclonic around a cut off Low near Southern Britain late in the run.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure largely in control of the weather often situated to the SW of the UK and most influential to the South of the UK with more of an occasional intervention of Atlantic fronts from the Atlantic affecting the North. Later in the run High pressure shifts more towards the North of the UK with a switch to North as best as thundery Low pressure again shows some ingress into Southern Britain later

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is High pressure based too for the next week to 10 days again positioned out to the SW of the UK throwing a ridge towards Southern Britain. Then through the second week the more changeable conditions affecting the North will become much more widespread as Low pressure becomes dominat across the UK in the latter stages of the period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today some members showing fine weather holding on across the UK in two weeks time but with an increased group today indicating that Low pressure maybe showing a greater hand on conditions across the UK probably from the NW.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a lot of dry and warm weather across the South with a period of cloudier, windier and occasionally damper weather for a period midweek in the North. Then late in the week High pressure affecting the South is shown to build back across the North too by next weekend with fine and warm conditions.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts look broadly similar to the raw data as High pressure ridging in from the SW squeezes the life out of the weakening troughs across the South and then with a weakening cold front approaching from the West by later in the week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM shows very similar dynamics through the period as High pressure ridging across the South early in the week is interrupted in the North by troughs and some rain midweek before all areas join in with better weather later in the run as High pressure builds across all areas with some fine and warm conditions for all.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a very summery period developing late in the week with the tentative High pressure affecting the South early and midweek extending to all areas later with fine and in places very warm and sunny weather by next weekend especially across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows South and West is best this week as High pressure to the SW exerts it's best influence to these areas while in the North and East cloudier and cooler weather with a little rain in association with weak fronts travelling SE midweek and again later in the week slows the progress of better weather to the North. then at the very end of the run a fall in pressure could bring some showers almost anywhere and a cool northerly could be noticeable across the east for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains locked on the fact that High pressure is likely to be strongly ridged across the UK from the SW in 10 days time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure becoming influential eventually to all areas.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.0 pts with UKMO at 83.1 pts and GFS at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.5 over 40.8. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.4 pts to 22.5 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Fine Summerlike conditions across the UK still look likely to be affecting many parts of Britain although patience for the very best weather may be necessary especially if you live in the North. High pressure to the SW remains the focus of attention for this as it ridges towards Southern Britain through the week and to all areas from next weekend. The North will see more Atlantic winds and occasional rain as troughs move across from the West especially midweek before pressure builds across these areas too later bringing the good weather covering the South for much of the time across these Northern areas too. Some very warm weather can be expected especially across the South and SW which remain closest to the centre of the High pressure. Then as we move through Week 2 although some evidence of a breakdown perhaps into another thundery or cooler showery period is shown and this includes ECM this morning this is by no means set in stone and could be due to individual variances between the runs. The ensembles look good though in the 10 day period from all output and it's not until we reach the outer limits of the period that more unsettled conditions show a bit more coherence today. So lets continue to look forward to a period of good summer weather when the large proportion of the time is dry, fine and warm with just the usual summer caveats of the North seeing a rain at times or the chance of a thundery shower or two in the South again later in the period  

 

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 15th 2015

 

No report from me tomorrow. Back as usual Monday morning.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Gibby

[bluearmy]

We mustn't overlook the fact that despite the longer term modelling wanting to extend the blocking further east across us, we continue to see small systems making inroads into the north and east of the UK as they head se into the upper eastern euro trough. Note that ECM op now has a small feature in the North Sea day 6 which will no doubt trail some weak fronts across the East. The mean/ anomoly charts will fail to pick out these small interruptions to the generally fine outlook. expecting wall to wall settled conditions may bring about some dissappointment but if your expectations are realistic for a UK summer, things are looking very decent indeed.

A long way from the limpet troughing we saw throughout may.

[Nouska]

hi... thanks for that.... either way its still looking fairly good though yes?

 

In as much as the charts we posted are for OP runs at eleven days out, it would be hard to say what the conditions will be like on the ground for the second half of June. I only use the analogues section on that page, ensembles are slow to update.

 

For longer range, I'm always more confident if the ensembles from the Asian agencies are on board: in this instance they re not. I suspect the early summer will continue in a similar vein, with the Atlantic high moving towards/over the the UK but still not strong enough to close the door on incursions from the north.

 

 

Your comment to Summer Blizzard - he was posting this chart - since updated.

[summer blizzard]

0z and Euro both attempt a cool shot/breakdown at day 9 however the short wave is very weak. 

 

GFS keeps the high close enough to draw in warmth and probably be quite good however France has a stinker of a period with a low that just avoids sending fronts to the UK. 

 

We do get a funny feature at day 9 however..

 

[mushymanrob]

 

 

Your comment to Summer Blizzard - he was posting this chart - since updated.

 

yep so i understand   fair play.

 

looking like some tentetive agreement between the gfs and ecm @t240

with some anomaly support too , could this be heralding a pattern change from the waxing and waning azores high which keeps drifting in towards us, then retreating westwards, like waves on a beach. im still expecting a long hot spell to develop. and this could be the time. (nothing scientific i still stress, just a hunch based on past experiences).