Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[ANYWEATHER]

Shocking ECM!

Those people still going on about what a great June this is should stop taking the tablets.

Apart from a few nice days last week I have know higher temperatures in many a recent April.

Great winter charts but for summer they are nothing short of dire.

Andy

Gfs is not that dis-similar, ecm is now like gfs as done first ,smelling the Coffee        

[Methuselah]

Its truly dire but what is also disappointing is when the ECM 12z draws more focus than the 0z which happened to show a settled end with high pressure and warmth at 240h. As ever, the ensemble mean will give the overall picture.

But it's one run of one model...Who knows what will actually happen?

[Milhouse]

But it's one run of one model...Who knows what will actually happen?

 

Which is precisely why the means are a better place to look. At day 10 looking for specific details is pointless. Here is the gefs12z mean at day 10.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

S.B was pointing out that the ECMWF/Gem has picked up the blocking signals the GFS has been showing on in-trim runs over the last day or two. 

The point is though it is 7 days away and as such if the models change again (be it for better or worse) then you can't exactly congratulate the models for getting it wrong tonight. That's all. Conditions look pretty decent until next weekend, lets see how the models try and place higher heights  over the next few days of model output.

[William of Walworth]

Not properly synoptic, this, so apologies, but did anyone watch the Countryfile forecast tonight, about 7:50 pm, BBC1?

 

Forecaster there, presumably basing his BBC forecast on UKMO projections (?), was wanting to place HP influence continuing closer to the UK (based West of it more than SW, but main HP centre pretty close) for the remainder of June.

 

Countryfile forecasts as I recall, when they include synoptic modelling, tend to avoid going beyond next Friday from the broadcast date unless they have more confidence.

 

For what little that's worth! </strawclutching>

Edited June 14, 2015 by William of Walworth

[mushymanrob]

Sorry but its ordinary at worst, just because theres no blistering heatwave doesnt make it a bad run, or any run a bad fun.

Messy synoptics might not bode well, they seem to result in horrid wet regime, but as yet thats not expected.

The models show a pretty uneventful outlook, which at this time of the year isnt bad, its still suggests a lot of useable outdoor weather. Average in mid - late june is still very nice.

Edited June 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[mushymanrob]

Not properly synoptic, this, so apologies, but did anyone watch the Countryfile forecast tonight, about 7:50 pm, BBC1?

Forecaster there, presumably basing his BBC forecast on UKMO projections (?), was wanting to place HP influence continuing closer to the UK (based West of it more than SW, but main HP centre pretty close) for the remainder of June.

Countryfile forecasts as I recall, when they include synoptic modelling, tend to avoid going beyond next Friday from the broadcast date unless they have more confidence.

For what little that's worth! </strawclutching>

You are right w of w. The noaa anomaly charts have upto yesterday suggested that, so when theres uncertainty, which there is after next week, the ops havnt got it nailed and things might well emerge for the better

Edit. I note todats 8-14 day anomaly has now dropped the hight rises over the uk BOOOO, and supports the messy synoptic charts progged by the ops.

Bugger.

Edited June 14, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Polar Maritime]

The point is though it is 7 days away and as such if the models change again (be it for better or worse) then you can't exactly congratulate the models for getting it wrong tonight. That's all. Conditions look pretty decent until next weekend, lets see how the models try and place higher heights  over the next few days of model output.

 

We can only discuss what the Models are showing from day to day, And today the Gem and ECMWF are both showing the same signals as per recent GFS, Some were discounting the GFS altogether. I'm only looking at the broad overall pattern while as ever being fully aware of the usual crevats at this time-scale.. No use splitting hairs! 

Edited June 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Milhouse]

So the ECM mean is out and its supporting a northerly for a time before pressure building from the SW later on, which is what the 0z showed this morning.

 

 

[Nouska]

In as much as the charts we posted are for OP runs at eleven days out, it would be hard to say what the conditions will be like on the ground for the second half of June. I only use the analogues section on that page, ensembles are slow to update.

 

For longer range, I'm always more confident if the ensembles from the Asian agencies are on board: in this instance they re not. I suspect the early summer will continue in a similar vein, with the Atlantic high moving towards/over the the UK but still not strong enough to close the door on incursions from the north.

 

Your comment to Summer Blizzard - he was posting this chart - since updated.

 

Please excuse if it is bad form to quote your own posts.

 

 

I just wanted to highlight the JMA ensembles for week two - the same pattern is shown on the BCC ensemble set - as said above, it raised a flag that the longer term may be a little more complicated than shown on the anomaly charts being posted here.

 

Nothing particulary bad in terms of weather, just below average temps due to a northerly flow - as you were, in fact!

 

@Milhouse.....still a lot to be determined for the UK in the +192 time frame.

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 6 to 10 day version of the NOAA anomaly chart tonight still looks okay(ish) - still shows signs of an upper ridge close by over the UK, with some of the ridging perhaps extending further North/North-West towards Eastern Greenland, although with the higher than average heights over UK/Western UK looking weaker compared to yesterday's anomaly chart, is does seem like a bit of a step down with regards to the dominance of UK High Pressure with less-strong heights being more possible (although I do feel the confidence the NOAA have with the outlook tonight seems lower than that of yesterday considering the anomalies on the chart this evening look a little less detailed).

(Yesterday's anomaly chart to left, tonight's anomaly chart to right).

[knocker]

NOAA has done a bit of volte face and now has come around to the idea of a NW/SE trough Greenland albeit weak and retrogression of the HP. An idea that the GEFS hinted at previously which it now seems to have gone off. The ECM does still show a vague interest but it remains that. All in all not very satisfactory at the moment with scenarios running from a general area of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic to HP maintaining it's influence.

 

Just to note northern blocking has never been on the cards,

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Rocheydub]

Nice to see sensible, detailed analysis of the summer models.

Indeed. And great to see such huge activity in here, and it not being a winter month! Bravo NW peeps!!!

As for this upcoming spell, I see the miss-mash of outputs from the NWP in the medium term as less encouraging, but still, when it's not nailed on, it's not nailed on. There's always flip flops in them, so why take anything as gospel?

[Stormyking]

I personally dont find the ECM athat bad of a run, shows some very slack low over the UK, turning to a very slack Northerly which would actually be good for homegrown storms for places, Uppers of +2'c - +3'c and surface temperatures around 20-23'c for a lot of UK I should Imagine. By 240 I see potential of Warmer air pushing up from the South as thatWarmer air pushing up from the South as that low to the south of that main area of high pressure looks to draw some warmer air up and, that low that is over us starts moving off to the East or north East., that low that is over us starts moving off to the East or north East.

 

This is at +240

 

 

Correct me if you think I am wrong, I wouldn't be surprised that High to our North moves further East on its next run.

Edited June 14, 2015 by Stormyking

[bluearmy]

As expected, the week 2 anomolys looking very weak now and that allows for anything to come and poke it's head above the parapet.

whilst London has had only 6% of its monthly rainfall this far this month, i suspect Penrith has been a bit wetter ............

[johnholmes]

Picking up on the post I made re what NOAA might show this evening. Folk have already posted their charts but my interpretation may be a touch different?

The link first of all

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I made this comment in my daily checks on all 3 of the main anomaly charts

 

Noaa

6-10 an this chart is a sort of ‘nod’ to the ec-gfs idea, no decrease in the +ve in the far w but the slight +ve in the uk area is shifted nw and just a hint of a ridge there?

So a shift albeit slight by noaa; wait for the next one to see if this nod becomes larger and e-gfs keep to their ‘story’

8-14 shows similar trend so maybe noaa is moving to the ec-gfs version-we shall see over next 1-2 days

 

So IF ECMWF-GFS continues with their version and NOAA continues its shift from its previous position to something even more like their idea then we can really begin to believe that the upper air pattern is going to favour some kind of heights NW of the UK NOT over/E/SE of the country.

That would certainly scupper any ideas of much heat for the end of June in my view, how settled or unsettled, way too far ahead to be able to say but an interesting spell of seeing if GFS and ECMWF are going again to lead NOAA on upper air patterns for 6-10 days ahead?

[Stormyking]

Picking up on the post I made re what NOAA might show this evening. Folk have already posted their charts but my interpretation may be a touch different?

The link first of all

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I made this comment in my daily checks on all 3 of the main anomaly charts

 

Noaa

6-10 an this chart is a sort of ‘nod’ to the ec-gfs idea, no decrease in the +ve in the far w but the slight +ve in the uk area is shifted nw and just a hint of a ridge there?

So a shift albeit slight by noaa; wait for the next one to see if this nod becomes larger and e-gfs keep to their ‘story’

8-14 shows similar trend so maybe noaa is moving to the ec-gfs version-we shall see over next 1-2 days

 

So IF ECMWF-GFS continues with their version and NOAA continues its shift from its previous position to something even more like their idea then we can really begin to believe that the upper air pattern is going to favour some kind of heights NW of the UK NOT over/E/SE of the country.

That would certainly scupper any ideas of much heat for the end of June in my view, how settled or unsettled, way too far ahead to be able to say but an interesting spell of seeing if GFS and ECMWF are going again to lead NOAA on upper air patterns for 6-10 days ahead?

The ECM-GFS thing you have put there is what I was thinking and the way im seeing it about the ECM towards the end of the run. 

[summer blizzard]

18z has a more fluid, unsettled pattern..

 

[Costa Del Fal]

18z has a more fluid, unsettled pattern..

 

 

Doesnt look a washout though particularly for the South (Midlands, Wales, EA & SE/SW). Quelle Surprise the 18z shows rather low heights around Greenland too. Clearly, too much flopping of the charts to take anything seriously. 

 

Nice end to the GFS on the 30th for my birthday. Very rarely known it to rain on this day. 

 

However seriously, it really doesnt look like any extreme can be expected for the rest of this month. Quite a lot of useable weather mind.

Edited June 14, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Captain Shortwave]

We can only discuss what the Models are showing from day to day, And today the Gem and ECMWF are both showing the same signals as per recent GFS, Some were discounting the GFS altogether. I'm only looking at the broad overall pattern while as ever being fully aware of the usual crevats at this time-scale.. No use splitting hairs! 

The point I was making was that we should only congratulate the models for getting the correct trend or pattern and as such can only give praise at T0 instead of a point when the trend is 7+ days away. This mornings output is proof of that as neither the GFS/GEM or UKMO output suggests any real positive heights to our north west and as such keep up in a north/south split pattern with a generally westerly based flow. 

Day 6 charts

 

GFS

 

UKMO

 

GEM

 

There are of course spells where there are weak heights, but that is perfectly normal and their longevity is transient in nature, at 7 days away there is always the chance that the models are over-doing amplification in the Atlantic which very well could be the case here and as such we end up with an output this morning which broadly resembles the current metoffice thinking.

 

So in all the output at east for the next 7 days looks like a north/south split with little rainfall in the south couples with generally warm or even very warm conditions at times, the north seeing cooler and more unsettled spells of weather, especially from the end of the week onwards.

 

All subject to change of course 

 

Edit - GFS ens continue to show heights to the south west maintaining their influence over the UK for the majority of the time with conditions at the surface being warmer than of late overall (back to more normal conditions in terms of temperature).

Edited June 15, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

GFS and ECMWF both continue to show Heights push up over Greenland for around the 21st.

 

 

 

 

 

 

•  

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 15TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will build across the UK today with troughs of Low pressure affecting the Northand NW later today, tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly fine and warm across the South and West. Cloudier with a little rain at times in the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast remains the thorn in our side in restricting the best of Summer weather away to the South of the UK as the flow currently close to the North strengthens midweek and tilts NW to SE later in the week. The flow then strengthens further across the heart of the UK blowing West to East through Week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows High pressure never far away from the South or SW of England over the two week period. While this may be fine for southermost parts the West or NW flow around it's Northern flank spends a lot of time blowing down across the UK with somewhat cooler and cloudier conditions as a result with some showers possible at times for Northern areas and some eastern parts too at times. equally there is some very warm periods shown for brief periods as warm air is wafted up from the South occasionally.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is also showing a High pressure ridge from the Azores to Southern England waxing and waning over the period as repeated attacks from Westerly or NW Atlantic winds affect the UK bringing cooler and cloudier conditions at times with some showery outbreaks most frequently to the North but also to the South too at times where the best of the pleasantly warm and dry conditions will continue to prevail.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters remain focused on High pressure out to the SW with a receded amount of influence shown today as ingress of Atlantic winds and fronts show signs of making inroads across the UK at times in two weeks time.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure out to the SW with a ridge towards the UK at times but with a feed of NW winds across the UK replacing the warm conditions in the South midweek with cooler though still pleasant conditions at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the battle between the dominance of High pressure from the SW and a succession of weak or very weak troughs pushing down across the UK from the North later in the week and the West by the weekend.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM sthis morning shows overall good conditions across the UK through the next 10 days as it manages to hold strong influence from High pressure across the UK with the best conditions across the South while the North do see some cloudier and cooler conditions with a little rain from weak Atlantic troughs brushing by to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM has a High pressure ridge from the SW across the South of the UK at times occasionally put under pressure by weak fronts coming SE across the UK later this week and as a result tempering the warmth in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM shows High pressure in control of the weather ridging up from the SW with warm conditions in the South while some cloud and rain affect the North from troughs coming in off the Atlantic. Then late in the week the troughs sink South, weakening as they do but dropping temperatures back somewhat in the South. By the weekend and early next week the ridge has receded away SW somewhat but pressure remains slack but relatively high still across the UK with just the risk of a few showers here and there.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows not much has changed over recent days with a ridge still showing likely to lie across the South from the Azores with more changeable westerly winds restricted towards the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends between the models remain mostly focused on High pressure remaining influential across the UK in the shape of a ridge towards Southern Britain from the Azores anticyclone.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.5 pts with UKMO at 83.2 pts and GFS at 83.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 49.7 over 43.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.6 pts to 21.6 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS High pressure remains the driving force of the weather across the models this morning so nothing much has changed on that score over the weekend. However, it's nemesis is the Jet stream which refuses to lie down sufficiently to allow High pressure to otherwise ridge across the UK to Scandinavia and thereby give us very warm and sunny weather for a sustained period. Instead we have to deal with the consequences and complications that it's centre held down to the SW of the UK gives us in the shape of cooler air filtering down across the UK from the NW as well as weak troughs delivering pathcy rain across the North at times. While there are differing day to day varaiations on the positioning of the ridge and High pressure centre itself shown between the ouputs today the message from all is broadly the same. So this week looks pretty good especially if you live across the South where some Tropical maritime air feeds in midweek raising temperatures to very warm levels for a time in the South. Then as a toppling set of fronts come down over the UK cooler air is fed back once more and while the effects of this will always be muted in the South the North looks unlikely to see any sustained warm and dry weather for a while yet with temperatures never better than average here. Longer term changes look to be slow and the general trend appears to be to keep the status quo of High pressure down to the SW and gentle West, NW or North winds blowing across the UK with fine and dry weather predominant and just a little rain at times in the North.   

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 16th 2015

[Summer Sun]

 

GFS and ECMWF both continue to show Heights push up over Greenland for around the 21st.

 

 

 

 

 

 

•  

 

 

UKMO however doesn't

 

[knocker]

Can we discern anything from this mornings anomalies. Probably not.

 

Starting at T144 the GEFS Has a ridge Alaska, LP western Pole and troughs NE Canada (eye to be kept) and Scandinavia, A weak ridge west of the UK.

The evolution of this out to T240 is to replace the Alaskan ridge with LP and swing everything else east thus a trough Greenland orientated SE, the weak ridge now over the UK and the Scandinavian trough a very weak feature. Surface wise a slack area of HP over the UK.

 

The evolution of the ECM is broadly similar except it's not so keen to retain weak ridging over the UK and thus the Greenland trough has more influence resulting in a broad area of slack LP over the eastern Atlantic. To me the fly in the ointment is the LP over the Pole and N. Canada. Could well spawn shortwave pertubations that may well swing around the Azores HP.

 

So that's two scenarios. I'm off to phone Mystic Meg.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 15, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

well as so often happens one has broken ranks this morning on the anomaly charts, this time GFS, see below, so less confidence in just what the upper air pattern will be 5-7 days from now. NOAA will be interesting to see this evening whatever it shows, just what will the upper air pattern be is an interesting question!

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html