Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[summer blizzard]

Not entirely bad if you are in the south but for most of us, the GEM and GFS 12z runs are fairly unsettled through the 10 day period..

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM doesn't look too bad away from the northwest Tuesday to Thursday

 

 

Highlights the problems the models are having with TS Bill

[knocker]

this evening's GEFs anomalies are basically dominated by LP in the Atlantic with the UK swinging within the changing systems and ending at day ten with large area of LP to the NW. In the ext period it does toy with building heights over Europe but abandons this idea for a trough over the UK by day 15. Temps around average or a tad below.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 18, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows support for high pressure to eventually build in close to the south, especially around the end of June and start of July with generally warmer and drier conditions and becoming very warm across the south / southeast. There are signs of a nw/se split with the south and east having the best of the weather through the extended outlook covering late June / early July. In the meantime, the next 7-10 days look changeable with temperatures close to average.

[William of Walworth]

Frosty : if even you, ever the optimist, is unable to mention anything ahead of Monday 29th June, then I greatly fear that next week is going to be a washout.

 

Everywhere.

 

J10 is already warning that his forcoming Glasto blog (expected around 9 pm tonight, Thursday) is likely to be X rated ...

Edited June 18, 2015 by William of Walworth

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening all! A pretty uninspiring outlook if youre a summer mad fan! On the other hand gardeners, farmers and market gardeners will be clapping there hands in delight with the outlook tonight  The Uks green and pleasant land will continue.....

Edited June 18, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[Frosty.]

Frosty : if even you, ever the optimist, is unable to mention anything ahead of Monday 29th June, then I greatly fear that next week is going to be a washout.

 

Everywhere.

 

J10 is already warning that his forcoming Glasto blog (expected around 9 pm tonight, Thursday) is likely to be X rated ...

At least the Ecm 12z shows rather warm air for most of the UK during the second half of next week with low to mid 20's celsius, driest and sunniest for the south and east but with a risk of thundery showers later, generally more unsettled for the north and west.

[William of Walworth]

Thanks for that Frosty, appreciated.

 

We just need some higher pressure to mix in with those 10 hpa lines. I doubt we'll see them though ...

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

well looking at that  the outlook  saying  put the sunblock away  for a  time!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Not too bad a set of ens from the ECM, the high to our south/south west does tend to influence the weather in the south at least with shallow lows tracking over the north of the UK bringing occasional bands of rain interspersed with showers. Again I am not seeing washout conditions, just mixed with the best weather in the south where it could turn warm or very warm at times.

[summer blizzard]

Bit of a stretch to get excited over 1015mb i think. General summary is better in the south but relatively unsettled with transient ridging producing dry days.

 

Euro op is horrid days 8-10..

 

[knocker]

There is enough differences between the GEFS and ECM anomalies tonight to be in anyway categoric about Glastonbury and after. The ECM makes much more of ridging than the GEFS so certainly a few more runs required before any confidence in the evolution.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[damianslaw]

BBC long range forecast going for an unsettled outlook next week, with a transient ridge before we pull in a milder tropical maritime flow ahead of the remnants of ex tropical storm Bill hit our shores - these likely to envelop the country which would result in a potentially very wet last weekend in June. Not an inspiring outlook as we enter summer proper.

[William of Walworth]

BBC long range forecast going for an unsettled outlook next week, with a transient ridge before we pull in a milder tropical maritime flow ahead of the remnants of ex tropical storm Bill hit our shores - these likely to envelop the country which would result in a potentially very wet last weekend in June. Not an inspiring outlook as we enter summer proper.

 

 

We're off tomorrow (we'll be gone by 10 am) and I won't be able to go anywhere near online until 1st July after tonight.

 

I've now decided that I thoroughly hate synoptics, modelling, meteorology, and weather, in all categories.

 

The only weekend of June this year to become anywhere near a washout JUST HAPPENS to be likely to be my biggest (working) holiday of the year. Just remember what was showing across the models for right up into the end of June just a week ago. I'm trying really hard, but failing (now) to forget what most/all models were showing until last Friday (12th). Then last Saturday happened. Downhill ever since. See J10's blog.

 

Please forgive me for offtopic-ness, thread regulars, but feel my pain ...

 

<kills self>

Edited June 18, 2015 by William of Walworth

[Woollymummy]

I do feel your pain WoW, (Mud photo from Metro) - let's hope some of the mud is warm :-)

[knocker]

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting with the 25th. The anomaly has HP Greenland with a trough NE Canada orientated W-E  Resulting in a swathe of LP in the Atlantic across to the UK. Temps average.

 

By the 29th some significant changes begin with pressure rising in the western Atlantic, troughing orientated N-S mid Atlantic and ridging over the UK. From here until the 5th July the latter two systems move east with the HP ending in Central Europe and the rapidly weakening trough near the UK with the Azores ridge edging closer from the SW. This could well bring a period of above average temps to the UK, more particularly to the south and east.

 

From the 5th to the 13th Pressure remains high in the western and mid Atlantic but we are back with the LP to the NW and a weakish trough over the UK. The usual battle here between the latter and the Azores ridge edging in from the south west so looking once again at the N/S split. Temps below average.

 

From here to the 20th the ridge does gain a firmer foothold but temps still around average.

 

Summary

 

Pattern change from Atlantic domination around the the 30th June period to one very briefly described above. So July I perceive as having periods of very pleasant weather without breaking any temp records.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

 

GFS

Weak ridge through the UK bringing a dry day for the south, showers in the north, conditions remain changeable but potentially becoming drier and much warmer over the following weekend (Glastonbury).

 

UKMO

Fine for most of the UK, a better solutions than the GFS for dry weather.

 

GEM

Similar surface conditions to the GFS at this timeframe. The conditions remain dry and turning very warm or potentially hot in the south as we end the week and going in the weekend as heights build across central Europe allowing a southerly flow to develop, the north sees some rain or showers at times as depressions push north of the UK.

 

The output this morning isn't too bad with most of the rainfall occurring on Monday. A generally mixed picture but as the ECM suite last night showed, there is potential for something drier and much warmer to develop next week at some point, especially beyond the middle of the week.

[bluearmy]

The phasing of ex bill and the jet continue to cause headaches for the modelling

looking ahead on the gefs and most members continue to bring the lw upper trough into nw Europe in a fortnight's time. This is not a new scenario from the gefs. To me, it looks more about timing. We don't seem on the cusp of anything sustained re settled conditions but it does look like the unsettled will be incursions amongst a generally decent outlook (better the further s you find yourself).

The modelling does seem to be taking on a more sw/ne look re the jet over time. Are we finally going to lose the e euro upper trough??

[shaky]

models looking better this morning for next week!!looked as though low pressure would barrage through but not looking likely at the moment!!pressure looks set to rise and give a mostly fine and warm week barring maybe Monday when there could be some rain in the south!!!

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 19TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will weaken as troughs of Low pressure cross East over the UK tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow doggedly remaining rather unseasonable in both position and strength at times through the next few weeks often blowing across the UK from West or NW to East or SE. The trajectory does change to more of a SW to NE axis later in the second week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a gentle shift into somewhat more changeable conditions across the UK albeit the conditions bringing these conditions are slack and ill defined day to day as only shallow troughs drift across most parts at times with scattered showers and outbreaks of rain in places. Later in the period a more concise drift into breezier and unsettled weather under Atlantic Low pressure looks possible for a time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a very similar pattern today wih the same shallow airflow pattern next week gradually intensifying into a more pronounced pull of Atlantic Westerlies in Week 2 with some dry and bright spells in between for all areas. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with somewhat changeable conditions for all with occasional oubtreaks of rain and temperatures no great shakes for late June.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat pattern next week with a lot of influence from High pressure just to the South of the UK with a lot of dry weather as a result but with the risk of slow moving showers at times too, perhaps most likely towards the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM  GEM also shows High pressure largely clinging on especially to the South where a lot of dry and sometimes quite warm weather prevails with just the risk of a few showers at times. In the North more changeable conditions are indicated but by no means a washout here either.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows a lot of fair weather across the UK as synoptics remain slack with relatively light winds some showers but still with a lot of dry weather too when it will feel quite warm in the light winds and sunshine especially over the South

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is also less unsettled looking  though in its latter stages it does show many areas falling under the influence of Atlantic Low pressure and while the South remains escaping the worst of this the North could see some more appreciable rainfall.

 

 http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows very similar synoptics to the 1o Day operational chart to today so I would suggest that this morning's release later will show little overall difference to last night's offering.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to have shifted back somewhat to less influence from Low pressure affecting the South next week with somewhat less definition in the more general Low pressure previously shown in the second weektoo.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.5 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 20.8 pts to 19.2 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Slightly busy this morning so just a quick appraisal of the runs this morning and in general they reflect a somewhat better picture again with less domination from Low pressure once we get through the messy array of troughs affecting the UK early next week. High pressure looks to be holding on for dear life across Southern Britain from most output this morning with more of North/South split likely through week 2 when things could become warm and humid across the South in largely dry weather while the North sees the greatest chance of rain and showers then. So while there is the risk of a shower almost anywhere next week a lot of dry weather will largely supercede the effects of this with temperatures pleasant enough for late June in the South and while the North may see more in the way of wind and rain in Week 2 the South looks set fair with a warm SW feed likely..   

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 20th 2015

[ANYWEATHER]

models looking better this morning for next week!!looked as though low pressure would barrage through but not looking likely at the moment!!pressure looks set to rise and give a mostly fine and warm week barring maybe Monday when there could be some rain in the south!!!

Really, I see at least three rainbands crossing the country next week!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows an improving picture across the south and east next week after a cool wet monday, becoming warmer with more in the way of dry and sunny weather but still a risk of a few sharp thundery showers developing from time to time but the main thrust of unsettled weather next week becomes concentrated across the northwestern corner of the uk. Further into FI becomes more generally settled for a time as high pressure builds north and becomes centred to the southeast of the BI and temperatures soar into the low 80's F before a breakdown from the west.

[Frosty.]

Really, I see at least three rainbands crossing the country next week!

I see a lot of fine and warm weather, especially further south / east after next Monday!

Edited June 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is the best model this morning for some drier weather whilst some rain is still likely in the north at times and the odd shower further south can't be ruled out high pressure has more of an influence with Ex TS Bill staying out the way in the Atlantic

 

 

Generally an improving picture after Monday if UKMO is correct

Edited June 19, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

The South does look more settled at times.. With Tuesday being the pick of the week for dry weather according to the GFS.  As weak fronts push in from the West, Bringing showers or longer spells of rain for some parts.

 

Edited June 19, 2015 by Polar Maritime