Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

And you wouldn't expect one looking at last nights NOAA output which is tending towards the ECM. Options are still open.

 

[bluearmy]

And you wouldn't expect one looking at last nights NOAA output which is tending towards the ECM. Options are still open.

That is a six day mean chart knocks. If allows for a plume though doubtful it would sustain long enough to bring really high temps based on it.

[johnholmes]

Whilst a plume of that nature is unlikely, with a sustained mid Atlantic trough currently on the models, it remains on the table.

 

It is certainly a possibility if the upper pattern progresses from that, trough digging a bit further south and the +ve heights increasing, partly as a result of that.

[Man With Beard]

I see someone has got their glue out for the ECM 12Z and stuck it under the Atlantic low. Its not in the absolute top spot to drag up a plume, but it will certainly do for a settled and warm, possibly very warm spell next weekend.

And the little low running to its south at T240 would have the potential to really bring the house down, sucking up some 30C + weather by T264 before a big breakdown. Not worth taking seriously by that stage, of course.

Edited June 20, 2015 by rjbw

[knocker]

A quick look at this evening's GEFS anomalies and there is still a chance of some quite warm weather at the beginning of July. Forgetting for the moment, to plume or not to plume, the overall picture is encouraging. with the weakening of the Atlantic trough and a build up heights from the S/SE that results in a general area of HP in the eastern Atlantic and western Europe. This tends towards warmer than average temps. Let's see if the ECM falls into line.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[Milhouse]

What i like about the ECM 12z is that the 5c 850 hps line stays over the north of Scotland throughout, and we get 10c upper temps skirting the south. So it would not only be warm by day, but by night too which is not something weve seen recently. Finally the endless northwesterly and the associated chill is coming to an end. Instead of chilly winds we will have more days like this afternoon which has felt very pleasant in the increased humidity.

[Nouska]

We only get to see backdated info on the ensembles but ECM had been keen on the plume for turn of month; it seemed to waver on the last run but back on tonight. All in all, still looking good for a plume, how far north is still up for grabs.

 

Probability of extreme high T2m    Image courtesy of the TIGGE project.

 

GFS tabular ensemble T850 ... London and my local area.

 

     

[Frosty.]

I really like the Ecm 12z this evening, next week looks increasingly fine with pressure rising and becoming warmer. I think there will be plenty of settled weather from Tuesday onwards, especially for the southern half of the UK and there is potential for very warm air to push up from the continent into the south later next week and next weekend into the following week with the Atlantic trough held at bay.

[damianslaw]

Models singing in similar tune this evening, going for  stalling trough of low heights to some degree over the atlantic allowing ridging of sorts to encroach from the south. UK positioned in a bit of a no-mans land, classic col set up.

 

Indeed the models are showing a synoptical evolution that could introduce a plume of sorts.

 

So things potentially heading in the right way if you are wanting some warmer weather, but not necessarily settled, thundery downpours could be the order of the day. My original thoughts for the summer were such synoptics to hold sway quite a bit, but the ridging weak enough to enable trough features to crash in from the west temporarily bringing humid tropical maritime air then something fresher from the NW before the next ridge moves in bringing fine very weather and rinse and repeat. Its not too late for such a trend to set in and dominate the rest of the summer, quite often it isn't until late June we set the summer pattern.

[DTHFCJ]

the only way is up! hopefully.......

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS do indeed have an interesting slack southerly with the potential for some thunder i'd have thought. 

 

GEM not yet joining the party..

 

[Mokidugway]

I really like the Ecm 12z this evening, next week looks increasingly fine with pressure rising and becoming warmer. I think there will be plenty of settled weather from Tuesday onwards, especially for the southern half of the UK and there is potential for very warm air to push up from the continent into the south later next week and next weekend into the following week with the Atlantic trough held at bay.

a plume event and glastonbury , 2005 springs to mind an amazing 7 hour storm spectacular that nearly caused the festival to be abandoned !!.

[Captain Shortwave]

Pub run out now, this coming week looking very solid indeed, not entirely fine and settled but plenty of dry and increasingly warm weather with the risk of rain from a few weak fronts and the risk of a few showers (potentially thundery) breaking out on any day apart from Tuesday.

Mid, possibly high twenties in the south east on Friday, but most days look warm or very warm. Many other places should see above normal temperatures from mid week.

Beyond this the GFS keeps high pressure close and the following week builds the heat further in the south with 30C predicted by day 10

 

The pattern looks loaded for a surge of heat from the south especially as Spain and a good part of France will be entering heatwave conditions from this week, so something worth watching over the coming runs for a plume event or potentially the risk of something more significant occurring if the pattern amplifies significantly to allow a more robust Euro/Scandi high to develop and draw up that searing Saharan heat over Europe including the UK.

Either way conditions look like turning warmer compared to what we have seen so far this month.

 

Edit - Both the GFS and GEM control runs bring the 20C isotherm up briefly over the UK towards the end of week 2, this signal keeps getting repeated and the ECM looks potentially like going hot beyond day 10 with low heights being cut off south west of the UK.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Awesome stuff! Hey does this mean I'll get three days of drizzle and be able to watch a single lightning strike occur on a webcam overlooking the sea in Hull?

Wow a plume to remember I reckon.

Move this to moans and ramps if you like. My posts have been going in the wrong threads all day long :-)

Edited June 20, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[knocker]

This mornings GFS run can be summed up in a general way  by saying it basically consists of the battle between the ebb and flow of ridging from the SW of the azores high and depressions zipping around to the north on the jet. Both effect the UK intermittently with temps quite warm this week peaking over the weekend with mid 20C in the south and east To empasise once again, one model one run

Chart weatherbell

Edited June 21, 2015 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

its worth noting the building heat over southern europe, although its currently, largely, locked up over there, we only need the jet to buckle (favourably, to our west) and we would get all that lovelly hot air coming out way! interesting times ahead, will it be a case of frustration as the heat never gets here, or are we getting close to a heatwave?



some support for this to come our way?



 

[bluearmy]

The overnight runs look to be reducing the odds on a notable plume raeaching our shores. Judging by the ops and the gefs spreads, the direction of travel of Atlantic systems remains too w-e rather than sw/ne which could allow enough time for any plume to get here should one system decide to dig far enough s mid Atlantic. I guess, what I'm saying is that despite the gefs looking more amplified through week 2, the reality wil probably be flatter, especially to our west and without that buckle which rob mentions above, we can't advert the heat far enough north. Looks like a 'conventional' nw/se split which is where the ECM extended have been for a few runs now.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY JUNE 21ST 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A westerly airflow covers the UK today unsyable in the North and complicated by a warm frontal wave running East over Southern England tonight and at first tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places especially in the North.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow reasserts strength and influence across the South of the UK through Week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows complex slack synoptics under a weak Westerly flow this week delivering contrasting day to day variations in weather ranging from dry and bright and for a time very warm in the South to cloudier days when the odd outbreaks of rain or showers occur. The bias for the rain remains largely to the North. Through Week 2 further changeable conditions are shown in a slightly stronger Westerly with rain almost anywhere at times but still biased towards the North 

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a largely South/North split in conditions throughout with the best of the warmth and sunshine across the South while the North remains more changeable with rain at times under an Atlantic feed. In Week 2 some very warm and humid conditions are shown across the South and East and this would likely trigger some sharp thundery downpours if these temperatures engage with any troughing from the West and NW by then.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW or west in two weeks with a lot of dry weather but with some members shown a stronger NNW flow with some showers and a cool breeze although this view is still very much in the minority.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a warming up period for a time midweek as High pressure to the South feeds warm and humid air up across the South and East. The North and West looks a little cooler with a little rain too at times and a trough moving East later in the week could promote a few thundery downpours as it engages the muggy air in the SE before things settle down again later at the same time as it becomes fresher..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between as High pressure builds towards the South at the middle of the week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning shows a classic Summer pattern across the UK with Low pressure to the North and NW especially later but with High pressure close to the South and East. As a result cloud and rain at times will affect the North and West at times while the South and East stay largely fine and bright and become very warm and humid at times with perhaps the odd thundery shower as weakening troughs feed down from the NW on occasion.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM still shows a High pressure ridge to the SW lying towards the South at times with slightly changeable Westerly winds featuring delivering occasional rain to the North while the South becomes largely dry and very warm for a time around the middle of this week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming more established to the South of the UK at times feeding periods of warm and settled conditions across the South if rather humid soon after midweek. The North stays more changeable with occasional rain and rather less warm weather. This process is repeated several times up to Day 10 with a more thundery theme looking likely after Day 10 as Low pressure to the SW engages very warm and humid air over the South at that time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today are weak and inconclusive other than the fact that none of the output promotes anything dramatic over the period.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.3 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 82.4 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.4 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 30.5 pts to 20.2 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS This morning's output maintains the relatively quiet theme weatherwise across the UK for the next few weeks. The basic pattern remains for the bank of High pressure to the SW to persist but with a slight shift of orientation to the ridge further South than of late sufficient enough to help engage more very warm air at times up over Southern Britain from the SW through the period. It is hard to say whether this would mean sunny and sultry conditions or cloudy and humid but the chance of some very high temperatures in the South at times over the next few weeks is possible albeit with the proviso that the odd thunderstorm could break out as weak troughs from the West and NW engage the hot and humid air at times. The North and West of the UK look more traditionally characterized by slightly breezier conditions with rain at times and temperatures close to average but even here some warmth could spread up from the South at times. So all in all a very typical pattern for the time of year with a lot of benign but very acceptable weather for most with the South and East fairing best while the North and West have the biggest share of any rain that's going and even here some dry periods can be expected.

 

Next update from 08:00 Monday June 22nd 2015

[johnholmes]

My summary, not too different from that made by Gibby, is covered by my own entry in my anomaly chart routine daily comments on my pc this morning.

 

Sun and ec-gfs shows troughs rather than ridging for the uk with any +ve heights s/se of the country, perhaps close enough to give se ¼ of uk decent summery weather but less so the further nw one lives? Fairly similar on noaa but a touch less emphasis here on the trough side with it 20-30west for the main 500mb trough

the links for this

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

Open to question is how unsettled it might be on any one day and how much of the country would be affected. Equally as any surface ridging develops is how much of the country could be under its influence and how high the temperatures might get. Certainly not a summer is over pattern is how it looks to me.

Edited June 21, 2015 by johnholmes

[bluearmy]

The ECM ens spread at day 10 allows for the +16 isotherm to reach se England on its journey ne.

no general change to my earlier post unless the extended ECM eps back the euro heights nw.

Interesting picture at day 10 with the semi permanent upper trough to our East digging down into the eastern Mediterranean whilst we sit between the central euro ridge and mid Atlantic trough. Note an East American trough driving a ridge ahead of it. I would say that this trough /ridge combo will be crucial to how plumey we get. If the ridge in the west Atlantic sharpens then the downstream mid Atlantic trough will reciprocate and drive a strong plume over us. How plumey? Note how high the thickness in the west med is.

Edited June 21, 2015 by bluearmy

[knocker]

Still differences between the GEFS and ECM this morning vis the trough and HP, as there has been for a couple of days, so still leaves uncertain the extent of the progression of the Atlantic

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 21, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS this morning shows an Atlantic Westerly flow turning N/W at times as we move into the new month of July. With fronts crossing the country, Bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times, Inter-spread by some settled days especially for the South. As High Pressure tries to ebb in at times, But then gets pushed away by the next front..  So a mixed bag on the cards, With temps around average at best but warmer at times in the far South, A pattern that looks more akin to Spring.

 

Edited June 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Nouska]

The Reading EPS show scope for more warmth - deterministic is at the bottom of the range for last day of June..... caveat, a lot of time for change that far out.

 

 

Freebie today is for Middlesbrough ....

 

 

[bluearmy]

 

Freebie today is for Middlesbrough ....

 

which proves that there is a first time for everything. Just for gav!

[Andy Bown]

The GFS this morning shows an Atlantic Westerly flow turning N/W at times as we move into the new month of July. With fronts crossing the country, Bringing showers or longer spells of rain at times, Inter-spread by some settled days especially for the South. As High Pressure tries to ebb in at times, But then gets pushed away by the next front..  So a mixed bag on the cards, With temps around average at best but warmer at times in the far South, A pattern that looks more akin to Spring.

 

Then again isn't that the scenario that was being modelled for this coming week about 4 or 5 days ago? However now we're nearer the timescale tomorrow's frontal wave looks significantly weaker in the S/SW rather than a widespread heavy rain event and it's to be followed by a largely settled and possibly very warm week.