Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[mushymanrob]

a plume would be nice, but its not expected to be a major affair ... yet anyway. but with the mean upper flow from the southwest it should be warmer. its been cool since march on and off, hopefully the patterns changing to at least a southwesterly from a northwesterly.

[legritter]

Yes it would be nice to lose this nagging west or north westerly wind .

but some hope in the charts today with some real heat moving in to parts of europe lets hope it as our name on it .

Still i feel we have the possibility of  low pressure creeping in from the west hinted by some data ,as usual time will see but lets get those bbqs dusted and plenty of cool drinks just in case .

[mushymanrob]

note the 8-14 day anomaly charts suggest building euro high

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814day.03.gif 814day.03b.gif

 

 

looking at various anomaly charts, this far out there is (of course) a lot of uncertainty. but the gfs for this period isnt suggesting pressure rise to our east as i had hoped.

so it wouldnt surprise me it tonights noaa 8-14 day chart flattens out the suggested ridge the previous two charts had suggested could build (above).

[Eugene]

a plume would be nice, but its not expected to be a major affair ... yet anyway. but with the mean upper flow from the southwest it should be warmer. its been cool since march on and off, hopefully the patterns changing to at least a southwesterly from a northwesterly.

 

 

A higher risk of dull wet days though with more moisture in the airstream, GFS 12Z/UKMO 12Z are nothing to shout about regarding any long lasting summer heat.

[knocker]

A glance at this evenings GEFS anomalies not  surprisingly doesn't supply any answers. Next Tuesday not too clever with the upper low to the NW and weak ridging to the east but moving on the trough weakens and retrogresses a tad whilst heights build to the east. So what happens in between regarding surface detail is wide open to interpretation this far in advance except it wouldn't really indicate any extreme heat.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

[bluearmy]

looking at various anomaly charts, this far out there is (of course) a lot of uncertainty. but the gfs for this period isnt suggesting pressure rise to our east as i had hoped.so it wouldnt surprise me it tonights noaa 8-14 day chart flattens out the suggested ridge the previous two charts had suggested could build (above).

Remembering that last two outputs were raw naefs , it wouldn't be a surprise to see a change of sorts today. Given the extended ecm eps from the 00z, I suspect won't be too different though rob. Expect some flattening though.

[mushymanrob]

A higher risk of dull wet days though with more moisture in the airstream, GFS 12Z/UKMO 12Z are nothing to shout about regarding any long lasting summer heat.

Depends upon the proximity of the atlantic low and euro high. The closer to the high, obviously the warmer, sunnier and drier. After a ghastly cold day today, sat here with the lamp on its so dull, a summer of average would be most welcome.

We might get no lasting heat, but many snow lovers got no snow last winter and they survived.

But the ecm isnt so bad, plenty of nice dry summery weather on offer.

[Polar Maritime]

Can we please stick to what the models are actually showing please. It's not a 'who's turned there light on or off thread.. ;-)

Thanks, PM.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Will one of these hot plumes ever make it across the Channel, its amazing the amount of times the 20c 850 heads north sees the Channel and hits a brick wall and then moves east/ne.

 

Looking at the current outputs some very hot air is likely to head north depending on how any low pressure sets up in the Atlantic.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Will one of these hot plumes ever make it across the Channel, its amazing the amount of times the 20c 850 heads north sees the Channel and hits a brick wall and then moves east/ne.

 

Looking at the current outputs some very hot air is likely to head north depending on how any low pressure sets up in the Atlantic.

Unfortunately that's the reality of our weather dominated by the jet stream and very large ocean . So frustrating but as it's the norm its expected so we endure it . Apart from those that move abroad of course Mr Sussex !

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Guys and Gals. The low pressure parked to the west of the Uk in the next ten days or so will do no favour for summer loving fans...Shortwave troughs will develop from the parent low which will not be modelled from gfs and ecm. This Unfortunately will wash down any real heat not just here in the Uk but some parts of France and Spain. Yes there will be fine and warm weather for the Uk but remember the word FLEETING for most of the Uk....Looking at the latest from the models...

[nick sussex]

Unfortunately that's the reality of our weather dominated by the jet stream and very large ocean . So frustrating but as it's the norm its expected so we endure it . Apart from those that move abroad of course Mr Sussex !

The ECM has that 26c 850 blob over my house at T168hrs!

 

 

It might come as a shock but I'm not a great lover of hot weather, I generally like temps in the mid 20's. Down here you don't normally get weeks of 30+ like you  do further east.

[knocker]

Hi Guys and Gals. The low pressure parked to the west of the Uk in the next ten days or so will do no favour for summer loving fans...Shortwave troughs will develop from the parent low which will not be modelled from gfs and ecm. This Unfortunately will wash down any real heat not just here in the Uk but some parts of France and Spain. Yes there will be fine and warm weather for the Uk but remember the word FLEETING for most of the Uk....Looking at the latest from the models...

 

I take this doesn't include the ones that develop in the western Atlantic and sweep up to the north north Sea in three days? Not that will verify

[bluearmy]

looking at various anomaly charts, this far out there is (of course) a lot of uncertainty. but the gfs for this period isnt suggesting pressure rise to our east as i had hoped.so it wouldnt surprise me it tonights noaa 8-14 day chart flattens out the suggested ridge the previous two charts had suggested could build (above).

If anything rob, the introduction of the human hand and ECM into the output has amplified the pattern and it looks more 'plumey'.

No doubting that the ops are looking a bit more progressive and less amplified (which is against the grain) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ens playing a bit of catch up. The pendulum has further swings to undergo it seems.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hi Guys and Gals. The low pressure parked to the west of the Uk in the next ten days or so will do no favour for summer loving fans...Shortwave troughs will develop from the parent low which will not be modelled from gfs and ecm. This Unfortunately will wash down any real heat not just here in the Uk but some parts of France and Spain. Yes there will be fine and warm weather for the Uk but remember the word FLEETING for most of the Uk....Looking at the latest from the models...

Anything could happen. Yes there could be troughs and short waves, but what if the jet for example is being over estimated and then buckles somewhat, you end up with a completely different picture.

This will be why the GFS is going from one thing to another at the moment.

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens has more of a southerly flow later on if we do get this temperatures would soon respond with the heat over mainland Europe

 

 

If the low sits far enough west we'll tap into the heat over mainland Europe lots to play for yet

[Captain Shortwave]

Well we seem to have a potential date lined up for the heat to surge northwards towards the UK, this being around the 30th of June. Again though there is a lot of uncertainty on how the Atlantic trough will behave, we could see a system run along the jet and flatten things out, conversely we could see something appear upstream an dig the trough further south aiding the amplification of the pattern. Still a lot of time to go, that said the next 5/6 days look pretty set apart from the timings of weather systems and as such how warm it could get over the UK. 25/26C still looks likely for Friday.

ECM ens for the 30th

 

GFS

 

GEM

The ECM ens still looks positive, the GFS and GEM suites are less keen.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows its too early to write off our chances of a surge of continental warmth / heat to bathe the UK next week, the Atlantic trough is further west and a large swathe of the UK becomes very warm and humid with mid to high 20's celsius, we still have a good chance in my opinion.

[johnholmes]

Well we seem to have a potential date lined up for the heat to surge northwards towards the UK, this being around the 30th of June. Again though there is a lot of uncertainty on how the Atlantic trough will behave, we could see a system run along the jet and flatten things out, conversely we could see something appear upstream an dig the trough further south aiding the amplification of the pattern. Still a lot of time to go, that said the next 5/6 days look pretty set apart from the timings of weather systems and as such how warm it could get over the UK. 25/26C still looks likely for Friday.

 

If the anomaly charts are correct then the trough tending to dig south and not really moving east, at least at 500mb, is how things are most likely to pan out. Just how much upper or indeed surface feed comes off the continent is still open to discussion, well that is my view for what it is worth.

[bluearmy]

The gefs always had the 2/3/4 July as the high point for any plume. That seemed to be predicated on either a system digging the trough further south mid Atlantic than now seems likely or a heat low headed ne from Iberia across se UK. both these solutions currently look to be non starters. I wonder if they will crop up in the op modelling over the next few days.

[Man With Beard]

My very basic ability to read charts tells me there are two bites at the plume cherry. Bite one is around 30th June, well discussed here, but bite two is towards 3/4th July as the trough near to the UK lifts out allowing another possible surge from the south?

[Cheshire Freeze]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows its too early to write off our chances of a surge of continental warmth / heat to bathe the UK next week, the Atlantic trough is further west and a large swathe of the UK becomes very warm and humid with mid to high 20's celsius, we still have a good chance in my opinion.

 

Looking at the ensemble means you've posted there suggests to me that flooding rains could be just as likely as any heatwave, especially given a situation where we get a slack low interacting with those high continental uppers. All to play for really. Either situation would be better from a weather enthusiast's POV than this boring never ending NW'ly we've endured for months.

[johnholmes]

The noaa anomalies seem to have the trough moving westwards wheras the high pressure from the south influence Karl seems to be strengthening. Wouldn't be at all surprised if the confidence for this is relatively high or high.

 

Not sure how you get that pjl, as from my store of charts the 22 nd (today) shows the trough somewhat east of the prediction from the 20th output?

[mushymanrob]

If anything rob, the introduction of the human hand and ECM into the output has amplified the pattern and it looks more 'plumey'.

No doubting that the ops are looking a bit more progressive and less amplified (which is against the grain) so I wouldn't be surprised to see the ens playing a bit of catch up. The pendulum has further swings to undergo it seems.

Seems my worries about the noaa 8-14 day chart flattening out so far is misplaced and if anything it intesifies the euro high suggesting more of a southerly influence. Sorry on tablet cant post the chart.

Looking like yet another op vs anom stand off, which will be most accurate, heres hoping the anoms are going to be correct.

[knocker]

Here Mushy