Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

There are some subtle differences between the GEFS and ECM anomalies tonight regarding the evolution of the upper pattern vis the UK and this makes some difference to projected temps so at this stage it would be very premature to be definitive about extreme heat but fairly safe to assume pleasantly warm.

 

At T192 the ECM has the upper low slightly nearer the UK and makes less of the ridging thus the surface low has more influence and the 850 temps are no more than 12C,  From this point into the ext period the ECM moves the ridge east and doesn't really extend it too far north and the rather stunted plume moves with it so the 850mb temps never exceed those already mentioned.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

EDIT

I seem to post at the same time as others making my post redundant

Edited June 21, 2015 by knocker

[johnholmes]

Here we are again at day 10 with ensemble height anomalies forecast to our East/South-East setting up a possible plume scenario.

 

ecm..EDM101-240.GIF  gfs..gens-21-5-240.png

 

 

Lets hope those anomalies verify this time instead of ending up over Greenland/Iceland!

 

I would be very surprised if the anomalies, from various sources showing similar ideas, are not close to the mark. How warm/hot is obviously not yet known or how long, nor if it becomes thundery as it breaks down, assuming it does break down with a thundery spell.

Current 500mb trends suggest from about day 5/6 to at least 12 maybe 16 or so!

[Man With Beard]

Here we are again at day 10 with ensemble height anomalies forecast to our East/South-East setting up a possible plume scenario.

 

ecm..EDM101-240.GIF  gfs..gens-21-5-240.png

 

 

Lets hope those anomalies verify this time instead of ending up over Greenland/Iceland!

If these aren't potential heatwave charts, then I don't know what are!

Mind you, to be fair to Anyweather, these charts seem to pop up every summer at T144, only for the main pulse of heat to narrowly miss us to the east. Long way to go.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Evening folks, I find it quite amusing that some posters on here are going for heatwave conditions somewhere down the line, Please stop misleading people., there is no heatwave on the horizon.!  If you look at the projected model output with in T+168 low pressure in the Atlantic is the driver of our weather, so that will pump up some warm air at times across the nation but also some rainbands will push across the uk  which will be hard to predict. Lets say it will be unsettled in the North, Changeable in the South.....

 

Although this is quite a realist post, at the same time, I hope this turns out similar to the infamous Michael Fish blunder! 

It certainly isn't out of the question in my books though, should the models keep on outputting projected uppers of 30c over Spain heading North. That really would generate some unusually scorching conditions that would threaten records potentially.

[Daniel*]

Extreme heat is well and truly assured to build and gather over Iberian peninsula this severe heat does slip into France if the UK tapped into those 20c+ uppers the 2003 record will be under threat. Thus far on this run this does not quite make it (however after seeing the entirety of the run I was mistaken indeed UK/ Southern England joins in). Western Europe is overdue a sizeable heatwave could this year be the year? Interesting days to come - but similar synoptics caused misery and anguish as 2003 showed. Met Office will be watching this closely.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Daniel*

[95 Degrees]

What a beautiful GFS 18Z, heat being pumped up endlessly from N Africa giving Spain and France some extreme heat and the SE is hot too, still not to be taken as gospel but exciting potential shown tonight.

 

[Milhouse]

The 18z is worth a look just for the extreme heat that's set to come very close to the Uk at the end of the high res part of the run, sadly can't post charts. Upper temps of 25c, daytime maxes into the low 40s and mins in the low to mid 20s over parts of France. Back home, the heat does make its way into southern England. But if you want summer to arrive for us you only have to wait till Tuesday for the pleasant conditions to return. But the potential for a very interesting spell of summer heat is there in the extended outlook and sure that's where many people's attention is focussed on.

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the GFS this morning is a complete pain in the 7-10 day range as it creates the worst possible upstream pattern which just invites the entire contents of the Arctic to just dump themselves in the Atlantic fuelling a flat jet. The main concern would be rain here as secondary lows bring torrential rain to parts of the UK as they engage the hot air over Europe.

Mind you it is still warm or very warm with the pressure build occurring in low resolution.

 

On the other hand the GEM does amplify the pattern and hits the proverbial jackpot of plume events.

850s of 22C!!! over south east England, this would be mid-thirties territory with the risk of severe thunderstorms breaking out in the heat as well as the increasingly unstable conditions. Crazy latter output there, I did say that I expected one operational to throw something extreme.

 

Before then, it still looks good for this week with plenty of warm conditions with 80F possible again by Friday.

 

Edit - The GFS ens still keen on something very warm or hot occurring at the turn of the month.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as Cap't rightly says by the turn of the Month we could be seeing some very 'hot' conditions for the South of the UK, With temps possibly touching 30c + in places. A long way out, But the models continue this trend this morning. Before then we have the Atlantic to contend with, As fronts sweep in from the West next weekend, Which will define the final outcome depending on the track of these systems.

 

Edited June 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

There is a danger of getting carried away by individual runs again. The run by the GFS this morning is pretty much what the ECM anomaly was indicating last night with the first attempt at a plume running to the east of the UK. Looking at this mornings GEF anomalies over the last 24 hours they have edged the upper trough further east so perhaps moving towards the ECM? Dodgy business this as of course haven't seen this mornings yet. We are still looking at some pretty decent warm weather.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 22, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

The models continuing to show to very hot air being pumped up well into France and other northern parts of mainland Europe during late June / early July

 

 

This heat may clip the SE but how much further north it would get who knows

 

 

We could really do with a more southerly flow otherwise it could be that the SE gets the heat for a couple of days before it moves away

Edited June 22, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

well its still looking good, the next two weeks by wednesday are looking warm, pretty dry, with decent amounts of sunshine, but its a nw/se split as ever with the southeast in line to enjoy a lot of really good summery weather.



with the mean upper trough sticking out in the mid atlantic, keeping us in a warm southwesterly



the building heat over the continent does look like effecting us, breifly, over southern areas.



note the 8-14 day anomaly charts suggest building euro high

previous                                             latest


so whilst the models dont suggest we will get a long lasting heatwave, its not unreasonable to see the huge potential for one evolving. and what we have on offer is a pretty good outlook with plenty of warm/very warm, sunny and not too much rain away from the northwest. indeed for the southeast its looking very good.

[Gibby]

Here is my latest report on the soundings of the five most powerful weather computers in the world, namely GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM as at the 00z reports on the 22nd June 2015.

 

Sorry unable to provide links this morning.

 

The General Situation A trough of Low pressure will clear Southern England this morning followed by a UK wide ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow.

 

Models 2 week Headline Rather changeable with some rain at times in the North and West but some fine and in places very warm weather especially in the SE.

 

The GFS Jet Stream Forecast Todays Jet stream Forecast shows the flow currently blowing SE or South across the Uk weakens away over the next 24-36hrs. It then changes orientation to flow SW to NE across the UK later this week and through next as an Atlantic depression throws a ridge of High pressure across France and the Low Countries.

 

GFS Operational Todays GFS run shows a lot of High pressure just to the South of the UK with Low pressure out to the NW and in the Eastern Atlantic. Some warm and humid weather will be popular in the South where a lot of dry weather is likely. However, Low pressure will make inroads into the South at times from the SW giving the risk of thundery showers at times as it engeages the warm air before cooling things down temporarily. In the North and West more changeable conditions are shown with rain at times and closer to average temperatures.

 

GFS Control Run In theory today's Control Run replicates the operational in theme with the traditional Summer pattern of a NW/SE split with warm and humid weather in the SE while the North and West see the biggest share of rain at times while the South and East see the best dry and fine weather where it will often feel warm and at times very warm and humid.

 

The GFS Clusters A complex array of options shown within the options today with a 30% chance of High pressure lying to the West and another 30% with a ridge to the South while the other 40% is made up of options of allowing Atlantic fronts to cross the UK from the West or NW with rain at times.

 

UKMO shows High pressure in control later this week. After a few very warm and humid days in the South a cold front crossing SE will bring a cooler day or so at the start of next weekend before warm and humid air is pumped back up across Southern Britain by the end of the weekend. The NW continues more changeable with occasional rain on a SW flow.

 

The Fax Charts The Fax Charts show things improving across the South later this week as High pressure builds in from the South. The NW continue to see troughs of Low pressure from off the Atlantic continuing to deliver cloud and occasional spells of rain at times.

 

GEM GEM today has an enhanced version of SE is best and NW worst as the next 10 days weather unfolds. High pressure close to the SE will continue to flirt hot air from Europe across SE Britain but it never extends much into other areas with a warm and moist SW flow delivering rain at times to the NW and the occasional thundery type of weather which could occur further East and South as weak Atlantic troughs hit the very warm air in the Southeast on occasion.

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM also keeps the warmest weather the other side of the channel this morning over the coming week. Nevertheless the South and East will see a rise in temperatures and humidity later this week and coupled with some dry and bright weather it will feel very pleasant. Further North and West a more definitive westerly flow is shown due to Low pressure to the North and troughs of Low pressure crossing east could give some rain at times, a little of which could make it's way down into the South at times.

 

ECM ECM too shows hot air developing over Europe later this week and being maintained thereafter. The UK will be right on the boundary of this and the SE may tap into it on occasion but in general it stays the other side of the channel with the North and West of the UK in particular affected by fresher Atlantic winds with occasional rain at times which could extend further South and East at times.

 

ECM 10 Day Chart The ECM 10 day chart from last night shows shallow Low pressure up to the NW with warm air wafting close to Southern Britain in a light SW flow. Some thunder showery rain would be likely in this setup.

 

Notable Trend Changes From Previous Runs Not much change in the overall pattern this morning with the NW/SE split still very much likely in 10-14 days this morning.

 

31 Day Historical Variation Stats for GFS, UKMO and ECM The current verification Stats for up to the last 31 days show ECM the best at 3 days on 95.6 pts while GFS and UKMO share 95.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads at 85.6 pts while GFS comes in second at 83.1 pts and then UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM leads with 49.5 with GFS at 44.7 pts. Finall at 10 days ECM leads the way at 31.4 pts with GFS at 21.1 pts.

 

My Thoughts  The weather pattern is about to change somewhat as the NW influence of winds which have restricted higher temperatures for so long despite the largely dry conditions change to a more SW flow in the next few days. That's not to say that the UK is about to experience wall to wall summer sunshine and temperatures in the 80's every day as there still looks too much Atlantic influence for a lot of the UK keeping the very warmest conditions towards the far SE of England and more likely across Europe where some serious heat is possible with time. Nevertheless, with a SW breeze most of the UK can expect some better temperatures than of late and with a lot of dry weather in the SE it will feel very summery here. Further North and West stronger breezes will carry a lot of moist air across with some thick cloud and rain at times and it is conceivable that from time to time these disturbances will move into the very warm air in the SE with the risk of thundery showers for a time before the pattern resets. Looking longer term changes look to be slow with a continuing NW/SE split with perhaps a period of more notable unsettled conditions for many but at the range shown this by far from certain. So a classic summer pattern to come with the best weather towards the SE but nowhere looks like seeing a rainfest with even the North seeing respectable conditions on occasion between the fronts.

[knocker]

There is good agreement between the anomalies this morning vis the HP to the east and the upper trough to the west. But of course this is a great tease because it's all down to the evolution of the surface detail and Mystic Meg is required for that at this stage.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/.

 

[bluearmy]

Well yesterday began with a slight swing away from a notable plume - I think today has reversed that and we remain where we were on Saturday evening.

A decent chance of a notable plume sometime next 2 weeks though the odds are always higher the further South you are. ( bit obvious really)

[camiscool]

Well, the 06z is a bit of a mixed bag with the plume being pushed slightly further east and mainly effecting the South East.. The North west most exposed to any Atlantic breakthroughs.

[mountain shadow]

Well yesterday began with a slight swing away from a notable plume - I think today has reversed that and we remain where we were on Saturday evening.

A decent chance of a notable plume sometime next 2 weeks though the odds are always higher the further South you are. ( bit obvious really)I th

I thought the opposite, with the plume moving through Central France instead, still a small chance the far South East will catch it, although it will be a brief affair i fear with the wind turning more Westerly.

 

The models have overplayed the plumes and underplayed the Atlantic thus far in the Summer.

[summer blizzard]

Euro has it missing us. Euro ensembles have us only catching the edge..

 

 

GFS6z is very progressive with barely any hint of it..

 

[Backtrack]

Euro has it missing us. Euro ensembles have us only catching the edge..

 

 

GFS6z is very progressive with barely any hint of it..

 

Not necessarily. The ensemble you've posted has the 10C isotherm over much of the UK, that translates to fantastic temperatures throughout almost all of England & Wales. Low 30's no, low-mid 20's? Yes!

[bluearmy]

In making my judgement re any plume, I'm looking at the 850 spreads and the direction of travel on them. To me, the area of uncertainty is spreading further nw days 9 and 10. (Notable has to involve upper > 15c. Some of those runs showing > 20c are bizarre).

In addition, the ecm extended is more inclined towards further chances of plumes than yesterday with the low anomoly in the Atlantic looking more stalled and less progressive.

Edited June 22, 2015 by bluearmy

[summer blizzard]

Not necessarily. The ensemble you've posted has the 10C isotherm over much of the UK, that translates to fantastic temperatures throughout almost all of England & Wales. Low 30's no, low-mid 20's? Yes!

 

Hence why i said edge. 

 

To be honest, anything less than 30C in July is nice but unspectacular. 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows the weather turning very warm or hot for a time early next week across the southern half of the BI, as high as mid 80's F in the southeast. Looking at the bigger picture, a fair amount of fine and pleasantly warm conditions this week under a ridge of high pressure, not completely dry but a decent spell for many of us with temperatures into the low 20's celsius. Most of the rain on this run is across the north and northwest of the UK.

I think we are looking at a typical nw/se split for the next few weeks with the southeast having the warmest and driest spells but we should all have some fine and warm weather at times.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Perhaps a bit early to get a real handle on the surface detail re.any plume.Overall today's outputs does suggest heat building across the mainland of Europe in the next few days with us on the edge of things.

Certainly some warm up looks likely now as we lose the cool feeling north westerly winds as a Euro ridge/Atlantic low combo. would back the wind towards south west later this week.The SE quadrant of the UK could see a brief spell of heat before it moves away east  later.

 

By day 7 we can see how the models ens means see things currently.

 

Feeling more Summery though but there could be a lot of cloud in the tropical maritime sourced air stream- so muggy and bright rather than unbroken sunshine and blue skies could be on the agenda for many of us.

Edited June 22, 2015 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

Would definitely say that thus far, the 12z ops have swung the pendulum back a bit. Will the ens follow suit?

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows a standoff next week between a slow moving Atlantic trough and high pressure building to the east/southeast of the UK, this means our weather would be warm and humid with a tropical maritime airflow covering the UK and I think there is potential for an even warmer more southerly continental flow. As things stand, Sunday into early next week trend warm into the mid 20's celsius, the north and west of the UK have a band of persistent rain but away from that it looks drier and sunnier. In the meantime, this week will bring a good deal of fine and pleasantly warm conditions but with some showery rain from time to time.

Edited June 22, 2015 by Frosty.