Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[summer blizzard]

Heat building day on day is indeed a factor in getting really high temperatures. The all time record of 38C was reached with uppers just above 20C - an 18C hike. But I think a 15C difference is achievable here, because heat will already have been building across the channel, the flow will be straight off continental Europe in mid-summer with no sea track and its not as if the previous day in the UK will be cold.

GFS 06Z carries on the theme of heights building to the east and 30C being reached in thee UK. Hard to believe a trough will set up so far south in the Atlantic at this time of year (I'm talking T200+) but if so, several further waves of southerly heat - and torrential thunder - could follow.

 

July 1990 managed 37C with 17C uppers i believe but as per above, it had seen heat building over the UK for days if not weeks and a near perfect synoptic (gentle south easterly with stable 1020mb+ pressure in my opinion beats 03 and 06 for perfection)..

 

 

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GFS has less extreme uppers but has the spell solid from Tues-Thurs before thunder on Friday..

 

[Daniel*]

Pressure is sub 1020mb and we only have the 20C isotherm for a day so it will be hot but i don't think we'll be challenging the July 06 record. Generally, heat builds for several days to get mid to high 30's.

Note the 19C isotherm does not leave Kent through the course of those 72 hours easily I reckon 35C will be obtained in the S/E of England on the basis of that particular run.

This is my 2,000th post what a milestone

Edited June 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[Nick L]

The 2m temps on this morning's ECM max out at around 31/32c in the SE. A sneak peek for you:

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Nick L

[Alexis]

Not sure those predicted temperature charts are worth paying much attention to. It's 22C here now, 3C higher than all the models were showing yesterday.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Alexis

[Polar Maritime]

Not sure those predicted temperature charts are worth paying much attention to. It's 22C here now, 3C higher than all the models were showing yesterday.

Surface temp charts will always be be within a degree or two, A good guide and thats all it is.

[SteveB]

Surface temp charts will always be be within a degree or two, A good guide and thats all it is.

When talking about temps as high as being predicted (near record breaking) then 1,2,3c is significant

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows most of the UK becoming warm / very warm next week with temperatures widely into the low to mid 20's c and high 20's celsius across the south/southeast of England and humidity levels rising through next week. Early next week looks like becoming fine for all areas with the south and east holding on to the fine and sunny conditions for longest whereas the north and west, after a fine start next week look like turning unsettled with spells of rain, heavy at times from midweek.

[Summer Sun]

Here's what WSI have to say on next week;

 

Models not entirely in agreement, but increasing evidence for a warm to hot Europe next week, more so the north.

 

 

Chart WSI euro weather

[Captain Shortwave]

This was the ECM/GFS ensembles for London

The mean getting towards 25C which is impressive to be honest, some extreme members present in the suite with the ECM op not even being the hottest member in the latter stages, though it is in the highest cluster.

Regarding the ECM op, 33/34C would be possible I feel, but the day 10 chart would suggest a second burst of heat from the south just as potent but coupled with higher surface and 500mb heights added to the fact that the surface would lower layers would already be very warm so if the ECM op were to go out a further few days then we could have been looking at record breaking temperatures for July.

 

Pretty worthless though for anything more than an example chart as at this timeframe we will see massive changes.

 

The model output today has certainly returned to a more amplified state around the turn of the month with not only a plume event back on but the return of the slightly possibility of a heatwave developing as we start July. The ECM suggests the slight chance heatwave whilst the GEM and GFS deliver a potent plume event.

12z coming up, it will probably go balls up now 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Man With Beard]

This was the ECM/GFS ensembles for London

The mean getting towards 25C which is impressive to be honest, some extreme members present in the suite with the ECM op not even being the hottest member in the latter stages, though it is in the highest cluster.

Regarding the ECM op, 33/34C would be possible I feel, but the day 10 chart would suggest a second burst of heat from the south just as potent but coupled with higher surface and 500mb heights added to the fact that the surface would lower layers would already be very warm so if the ECM op were to go out a further few days then we could have been looking at record breaking temperatures for July.

 

Pretty worthless though for anything more than an example chart as at this timeframe we will see massive changes.

 

The model output today has certainly returned to a more amplified state around the turn of the month with not only a plume event back on but the return of the slightly possibility of a heatwave developing as we start July. The ECM suggests the slight chance heatwave whilst the GEM and GFS deliver a potent plume event.

12z coming up, it will probably go balls up now 

Wrong chart Captain?

[Captain Shortwave]

Wrong chart Captain?

The day 10 chart was intentional, unless it was something else.

So out to day 5 and the GFS has upped the ante at the start of next week again.

The ridge is stronger than the 06z, so it will be interesting to see how hot the later charts get.

Well it ends up turning into a full blown hot and dry pattern, temperatures widely into the mid/high twenties with the low thirties possible in the south, there is quite a stiff east to south east wind to take the edge off a little bit

 

The UKMO looks slower but the end result is a pretty nice day 6 chart

Edited June 24, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

GFS looking promising with low pressure out west and a ridge of high pressure over the UK temperatures along the south coast pushing 27c

 

 

Southerly flow at t144 sends temperatures rising UK wide

 

 

UKMO looking more promising at t144 with a southerly flow developing

 

 

Not far off 30c in the south on July 1st this is a cracking run from GFS

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Summer Sun

[95 Degrees]

Amazing GFS run so far, what I love is the way the HP cells link up with each other later on to perform a stronger cell of high pressure, and any low pressure is far away from Western Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Stormyking]

Obviously the people who are doing these computer models want to go to the beach for a week off so its teasing us with this crazy settup, itis alright for some! -.-

 

Haha nah have to say this GFS and all others are absolutely cracking, fingers crossed, im not getting hpes up until closer to times

[Guest]

Looks like a belting GFS 12Z so far (hopefully not an outlier) but 30C could be possible tue through friday next week, again very high temps would be unlikely given the squeeze of isobars created by the Scandi high nudging against low pressure to the south west. 

[Summer Sun]

A fantastic run from GFS this afternoon with early July getting hotter each day

 

 

30c would easily be hit during the afternoons and it looks dry for most as well though some home grown thunderstorms couldn't be ruled out

[Milhouse]

It shows how extreme the heat is coming up from the south on the GFS when cooler air starts to filter in from the east. Not a direction you associate with cooler air in summer. By cooler i still mean uppers 10-15c so remaining very warm. Temps of 30c+ come tantalisingly close but we dont get over 30c in the UK on this run. But as a general rule, i always think with upper temps of 15c we stand a good chance of breaching the 30c mark, and the 12z has 15c uppers as far north as Lancashire.

 

The GFS has definately started to back the ECM in showing the first real summer heat of the season.

[Guest]

A fantastic run from GFS this afternoon with early July getting hotter each day

 

 

30c would easily be hit during the afternoons and it looks dry for most as well though some home grown thunderstorms couldn't be ruled out

 

I wouldn't say easily hit 30c as it'll be really quite windy as some of those days have a force 5-7 wind blowing south east to north west. That said it would likely nudge 30C most days and this clearly wouldn't be 'just a south east' special either.

[Summer Sun]

It shows how extreme the heat is coming up from the south on the GFS when cooler air starts to filter in from the east. Not a direction you associate with cooler air in summer. By cooler i still mean uppers 10-15c so remaining very warm. Temps of 30c+ come tantalisingly close but we dont get over 30c in the UK on this run. But as a general rule, i always think with upper temps of 15c we stand a good chance of breaching the 30c mark, and the 12z has 15c uppers as far north as Lancashire.

 

The GFS has definately started to back the ECM in showing the first real summer heat of the season.

 

On the charts I put up we have 29c each day and 30c on the final one with the afternoon peak around 4pm we could add a few degrees to these potentially

[Captain Shortwave]

I'm pretty sure the GFS would produce 30C somewhere in the home counties westwards towards the Bristol area.

So the GEM.... it's hotter than the GFS

 

So the GFS and GEM operationals have gone for potentially a prolonged period of fine and very ward to hot weather. We are a long way from 36 hours ago where even warm weather in the south looked fleeting. This evolution begins at around 5 to 6 days away, so there is a decent chance of at least beating the previous high for 2015, even if the final outcome is still a brief plume event.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[seaside 60]

I know its early, but the MO arent really adding to the excitement with just warm, possibly very warm and thats only for southern half.

Is this another over the top model bonanza like the winter.

[Guest]

GFS is amazing, even when the high loses it grip it cools of for just a few days before a major reinforcement from a new extension of the Azores high. What I really like about the later end of the GFS is the massive westwards surge of 20-30+C 850s almost out to the Azores this would a great source of heat for the UK to easily tap into.

[A.J]

very nice 12 goofus run.....interesting orientation of the atlantic trough drawing in SE winds....what's interesting is that taking this run in isolation it will be a 'dry heat' with relatively low humidity values (dewpoints in the low to mid teens) so ppn would be scarce, any thunderstorms would be isolated and generally confined to the SW due to the scandi block keeping low pressure down in Biscay....genuine heatwave conditions if it verifies

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is sensational..lovely stuff..I thought the 6z was good but this is the best run of the summer so far with many days of very warm / hot and sunny weather and warm clear nights, it's just full of gorgeous weather, yesterday's gfs 12z was instantly forgettable but this one is EPIC!..I'm looking forward to next week now, if it's even half as good as this it will still easily be the best spell of the summer so far.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

very nice 12 goofus run.....interesting orientation of the atlantic trough drawing in SE winds....what's interesting is that taking this run in isolation it will be a 'dry heat' with relatively low humidity values (dewpoints in the low to mid teens) so ppn would be scarce, any thunderstorms would be isolated and generally confined to the SW due to the scandi block keeping low pressure down in Biscay....genuine heatwave conditions if it verifies

Now that has a similar ring to 2006. Remember how unbroken the sunshine was and that lovely dry Southeasterly gently wafting the barbecue smoke over suburbia.

Perfection!