Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[nick sussex]

Whilst it seems unlikely that the current modelling could induce any records in England, the ECM at day 8 has uppers around +18c ne Scotland in the lee of the mountains with a brisk s breeze. Is that a recipe for a record breaking 33c?

That would be great to see. The conditions do look favourable so something to look out for.

[Daniel*]

 my odds

 

30+ 80%

33+ 50%

35+ 30%

Nick S your odds are mathematically incorrect

anyway a very slight step down on potency on the latest ECMWF run if I'm being pedantic IMBY but to be expected but with renewed chance out in FI of another batch of hot air making inroads to the United Kingdom. Nothing is cert yet. A nationwide spell of warmth is something we've lacked and it is solidifying.

[Milhouse]

Next Thursday is the day that would give the highest temperatures if the ECM were to verify. Just to compare to the 3rd August 1990 that saw 37c, that was from 850s of only 16/17c. The August 2003 heatwave often saw the 20c isotherm into the far south.

[Nick L]

Likely hot spot if the wind direction is more se.

 

Gravesend

 

The former might be a surprise to some but this location holds the current record closely followed by Heathrow. Gravesend has a positive factor for heat with the mini fohn effect north of the Downs.

 

Hotspot with a more east/se flow:

 

Heathrow

 

Anywhere North of the Downs in southern England could hit 30+. Not sure the 35c can be hit, generally you need a few bites of the cherry to get to that level.

 

Overall the models after going a bit lukewarm on this heat have backtracked by holding that low further west and moving in a favourable direction to drag the heat north out of Spain and France.

 

Given that the models at T120hrs have a favourable set up even if that low tracks more ene rather than ne it would be difficult to avoid some hot weather.

 

So my odds

 

30+ 80%

33+ 50%

35+ 30%

 

I wouldn't say it's that high a risk of beating 35c, but certainly some parts would be pushing the mid-30s. ECM this evening is certainly keeping the toasty theme, just a gradual build up of heat through the week.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Nick L

[nick sussex]

Nick S your odds are mathematically incorrect

anyway a very slight step down on potency on the latest ECMWF run if I'm being pedantic IMBY but to be expected but with renewed chance out in FI of another batch of hot air making inroads to the United Kingdom. Nothing is cert yet. A nationwide spell of warmth is something we've lacked and it is solidifying.

Lol! how so, explain. What did I do wrong in terms of maths? In terms of potency theres of course still a lot of uncertainty but if the T120hrs charts verify then it would be very difficult to avoid some hot weather, the big question is longevity and whether there'll be another chance past day ten.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

With a direct Southerly flow under 20c uppers, somewhere like Cambridge or Lakenheath I'd say could touch 35c.

 

Here is an example. NAVGEM with the hottest uppers I've ever seen forecast for the UK!! Stark raving bonkers!

 

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[nick sussex]

I wouldn't say it's that high a risk of beating 35c, but certainly some parts would be pushing the mid-30s. ECM this evening is certainly keeping the toasty theme, just a gradual build up of heat through the week.

The ECM temperature forecasts are  30c for Heathrow next Thursday, 38c down here on the Wednesday. I find these tend to underestimate summer temps so I'd add on a few degrees.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Heathrow/long.html

 

The above link comes off the ECM data and gives the weather for thousands of towns and cities across the world.

Edited June 24, 2015 by nick sussex

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

Pretty good support for a real warm up next week with winds coming in from the south east.

I would say that the chances of recording 30C next week looks pretty good for somewhere in the UK.

[Nick L]

The ECM temperature forecasts are  30c for Heathrow next Thursday, 38c down here on the Wednesday. I find these tend to underestimate summer temps so I'd add on a few degrees.

 

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Heathrow/long.html

 

The above link comes off the ECM data and gives the weather for thousands of towns and cities across the world.

 

On what the ECM is showing, there are widespread low 30s on Thursday, so yes, some places will see 33-34c if that comes off. I was just saying I think 30% for exceeding 35c is a bit much. 

[ANYWEATHER]

On what the ECM is showing, there are widespread low 30s on Thursday, so yes, some places will see 33-34c if that comes off. I was just saying I think 30% for exceeding 35c is a bit much. 

Its not going to happen Nick......  

[A.J]

It wont happen mate,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

why won't it happen Ian?........sorry if that sounds blunt bud, but posting that without any further explanation is a little presumptuous?

[mushymanrob]

Is this a Wild Goose Chase???

Says the guy who mockingly said theres no heatwave... Lol.. C'mon man, thats straw clutching! It would be pretty unusual now if all models got a day 5 prediction wrong.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, Lets cut the one liners and point scoring posts please, And continue with discussing what the models are showing.

Thanks, PM

[Frosty.]

So then, just to add to my previous post and of other members, here's a summary of the models.........

 

ncha4.jpg nci08.jpg  nciv5.jpg

That's one of the funniest posts I've seen on here, great stuff aj.

Looking at the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, growing support for a very warm / hot and increasingly humid spell during next week...hoping for more sizzling op runs, can't get enough of them.

[Milhouse]

To end the run it stays very warm with signs of a rebuild of high pressure from the SW

 

[nick sussex]

On what the ECM is showing, there are widespread low 30s on Thursday, so yes, some places will see 33-34c if that comes off. I was just saying I think 30% for exceeding 35c is a bit much. 

Yes maybe, call me the Paris Hilton of NW, I was attention seeking! lol Seriously though much depends on that low to the west, the ECM spreads show that as the main uncertainty in terms of how close that gets to the UK, this has a knock on effect in whether the hottest 850's get sufficiently north or get diverted further to the east.

[Nick L]

Yes maybe, call me the Paris Hilton of NW, I was attention seeking! lol Seriously though much depends on that low to the west, the ECM spreads show that as the main uncertainty in terms of how close that gets to the UK, this has a knock on effect in whether the hottest 850's get sufficiently north or get diverted further to the east.

 

Yep, I think the "how hot" arguments are a tad premature anyway. No doubt in the morning everything will all have changed and we'll be made to look like mugs again!

[nick sussex]

Yep, I think the "how hot" arguments are a tad premature anyway. No doubt in the morning everything will all have changed and we'll be made to look like mugs again!

Keep the faith! lol French TV weather temps widely 33c next week, forecaster also mentioned some areas between 35 and 40c. If the UK can get the se flow then you should be okay. That's of course if you like hot weather!

[reef]

That NAVGEM chart is absolutely ridiculous:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1802.gif

 

I don't think I've ever seen a model show the 25C 850hPa isotherm over the UK. We would be seeing some quite extreme heat if that was to come to fruition.

[stainesbloke]

Yep, I think the "how hot" arguments are a tad premature anyway. No doubt in the morning everything will all have changed and we'll be made to look like mugs again!

True. A week in this 'mugs game' is a long time. Still, it is very encouraging to see agreement between the models towards a significantly warmer (and much more interesting) period of weather...be it a snap or a spell (hopefully a long spell). I've had enough cold and utterly dreary NW'lies to last a lifetime!

Edited June 24, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Nick L]

Keep the faith! lol French TV weather temps widely 33c next week, forecaster also mentioned some areas between 35 and 40c. If the UK can get the se flow then you should be okay. That's of course if you like hot weather!

 

Can't stand it, I'll be willing those numbers down! I'd say a few places in France will break the 40c barrier if some of what we're seeing actually comes off. Getting some reasonable consistency so far.

[Nick L]

That NAVGEM chart is absolutely ridiculous:

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1802.gif

 

I don't think I've ever seen a model show the 25C 850hPa isotherm over the UK. We would be seeing some quite extreme heat if that was to come to fruition.

 

That's insane. You're talking upper 30s with that.

[Biggin]

Likely hot spot if the wind direction is more se.

 

Gravesend

 

The former might be a surprise to some but this location holds the current record closely followed by Heathrow. Gravesend has a positive factor for heat with the mini fohn effect north of the Downs.

 

Hotspot with a more east/se flow:

 

Heathrow

 

Anywhere North of the Downs in southern England could hit 30+. Not sure the 35c can be hit, generally you need a few bites of the cherry to get to that level.

 

Overall the models after going a bit lukewarm on this heat have backtracked by holding that low further west and moving in a favourable direction to drag the heat north out of Spain and France.

 

Given that the models at T120hrs have a favourable set up even if that low tracks more ene rather than ne it would be difficult to avoid some hot weather.

 

So my odds

 

30+ 80%

33+ 50%

35+ 30%

How come Gravesend gets the hotties all the time?? Its on the thames, not far from The Estuary. Is it the the same station Nick

[Nick L]

For giggles, here is the corresponding 2m temp chart for *that* NAVGEM:

 

 

The UK is that mass of black to the bottom right of the timestamp

[dusk]

True. A week in this 'mugs game' is a long time. Still, it is very encouraging to see agreement between the models towards a significantly warmer (and much more interesting) period of weather...be it a snap or a spell (hopefully a long spell). I've had enough cold and utterly dreary NW'lies to last a lifetime!

 

Amen to that, brother!