Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Captain Shortwave]

There will always be variation in terms of how the sharpening trough to our west interacts with the ridge, on one hand the 12z pushes the first pulse of heat away quite quickly, yet just a day later the 20C isotherm is invading the south of England again as an area of heights builds straight out of the continent.

The UKMO on the other hand seems to land the most progressive solution on every model suite which again suggests something brief and pretty ordinary (30C with a thundery breakdown, that said that isn't terrible).

Now this is a chart

 

The cape charts are off the scale with 850s of +22C under a shortwave trough moving northwards out of France.

Not that it will verify of course.

 

The GEM is back on the heatwave wagon on the 12z

After its somewhat bizarre solution this morning where apparently the Euro high was sold to Greenland at the expense of our heat. 

Edited June 25, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

Parts of highland Scotland have gone from mid teen overnight lows to a risk of frost in the space of 6 hours

 

Edited June 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z - the initial plume pushes through quicker but, because of the position of the main trough in the Atlantic, it merely leads to another push of heat from the south by Friday. A truly bizarre situation.

[Steve C]

And Friday at 3pm next week.

 

Can't believe people panic, or set things in stone so far out...

Edited June 25, 2015 by Steve C

[SizzlingHeat]

Ukmo wants the low much further east as well http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsukmeur.html

[Summer Sun]

Hang on we have another go!!

 

 

35c the max on show next Friday

 

Edited June 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Guest]

Yes the GFS 12Z has punted everything several hundred east in this run ending the 'heatwave' after one day following the failure pressure rises to the north east of us.

 

Ended high pressure fights back with a secondary surge of heat from the south east late into the week bring mid 30's back by Friday.

[knocker]

Downgrade continues apace for Cornwall

Chart weatherbell

 

[cheese]

And Friday at 3pm next week.

 

Can't believe people panic, or set things in stone so far out...

But look at how restrictive it is now compared to before - that shows a high of 24C here. That's probably one of the worst charts I have ever seen - a north-south split amplified by a million.

 

Hopefully gone by the 18z.

[Polar Maritime]

The heat does get in briefly on the 12z for Tues/Weds but it is brief and quickly washed away to the east by thunderstorms. However, I think peoples upset may be premature as it is a brief retreat before the heat builds back for the weekend. Remember though, this is one run of one model for something 5 days away - there will be changes.

 

As I thought, Friday looks baking hot across most of the UK

Yes, I as you say many more variations of the set-up to come over the coming days, Which will firm up local detail.

[Daniel*]

I was premature in my judgement it appears: London, Southeast especially including East Anglia are piping hot come Friday.

[Steve C]

But look at how restrictive it is now compared to before - that shows a high of 24C here. That's probably one of the worst charts I have ever seen - a north-south split amplified by a million.

 

Hopefully gone by the 18z.

 

My point is that models are bound to wax and wane. I'd be a bit annoyed if things changed drastically 24 hours out, but it's pure fun / speculation to me at this point. Some sort of hot spell does look very likely (32C being indicated for Wednesday on this run too) but whatever will be, will be. I think watching without fretting is the best thing to do now (as ever this far out tbh)

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

This ain't no downgrade! If anything its an upgrade! Just when people were writing the run off, we see a potential all nighter of thunder drift up from Benelux and France, followed by 35c the following day! 

 

Of course things will chop and change throughout the lead up to it, but confidence is slowly but surely growing that we shall see some very warm if not hot weather into next week.

[Nick L]

Why oh why oh why don't people just sit and wait for the entire run to come out before making daft, throwaway comments? Another seriously hot run for many.

[Summer Sun]

Here's a closer look at the maxes on show for next week

 

Monday we see the start of the heat with 25c on show but possibly 27c somewhere in the SE

 

 

Tuesday widely in the high 20's I wouldn't rule out a 30c somewhere

 

 

Wednesday is a hot one with high 20's and low 30's widely maybe a 33c somewhere

 

 

Thursday is fresher in the north but remaining hot in the south again 30c is possible

 

 

Friday then sees a re-load of the heat hitting 35c in the south but maybe even 36c 96.8F or 37c 98.6F somewhere the July record is 36.5c

 

 

Saturday sees fresher air in the west again but large parts of England hold on to the heat

 

 

Another hot one for many areas though fresher at times in the north and west

Edited June 25, 2015 by Summer Sun

[radiohead]

12Z GEM has T850 temperatures reaching as high as 24 degrees over the southeast on Wednesday.....

[Summer Sun]

Another GEM from Gem

 

 

The heat is never a million miles away through out the run either

 

 

After a prolonged period of chilly north westerlies the tide maybe about to turn

[knocker]

Why oh why oh why don't people just sit and wait for the entire run to come out before making daft, throwaway comments? Another seriously hot run for many.

 

Basically because the very sniff of very hot weather brings a temporary interruption of hibernation patterns.

Edited June 25, 2015 by knocker

[Daniel*]

12Z GEM has T850 temperatures reaching as high as 24 degrees over the southeast on Wednesday.....

It does indeed it would be historic if it were to occur as it has never happened before.

In fact I do not think we've ever had surplus of 20C 850Hpa over British Isles let alone 21/22/23.

Edited June 25, 2015 by Daniel*

[bluearmy]

Whilst some may view the UKMO as looking progressive, thicknesses in se england inline with GEM at mid 570's with a trough moving through.

This is seriously uncomfortable stuff approaching.

As I said this morning, each run is just showing another potential solution. Perhaps one has picked correctly? Perhaps some coming together by day 5 on the output but still a pin job within a steamy envelope.

[Mapantz]

It does indeed it would be historic if it were to occur as it has never happened before.

In fact I do not think we've ever had surplus of 20C 850Hpa over British Isles let alone 21/22/23.

image.jpg

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83255-model-output-discussion-1st-june-2015-12z/?p=3218964

[radiohead]

It does indeed it would be historic if it were to occur as it has never happened before.

In fact I do not think we've ever had surplus of 20C 850Hpa over British Isles let alone 21/22/23.

image.jpg

 

NCEP reanalyses charts show 22 perhaps 23 just reaching the south coast in August 2003.

[nick sussex]

The reasons for tonights changes lie primarily with the small low running out of the USA which originally phased much earlier with the slow moving low to the west of the UK.

 

You'll see what this mornings ECM does and what the UKMO 12hrs does to see the vast difference this makes. The UKMO runs this weak low east right towards Iberia and doesn't phase this.

 

The ECM deepens this low and phases it with the main low:

 

ECM

 

T96

 

T120

 

 

UKMO

 

T96

 

T120

 

Regardless of the GFS bringing the heat back in later, if you want the heat sooner and more likely to verify then you want to see that low deepen and phase early with the main low.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[A.J]

So then, it's over to our Net Weather Special Guest GFS12z summarizer for his thoughts

 

 

 

sounds good enough to me! 

 

 

 

[mushymanrob]

Well tbh, the 12z gfs is bang on for what the anomaly charts were predicting for next week. The noaa never supported the amplified high sitting over us or just to our east, but did suggest a weaker ridge.

We will still get heat and humidity, but i dont think there will be sunny blue skies, but milky bright/rather overcast. Abit like aug 03.