Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Woollymummy]

Lots of heat around, not just for us...

[Man With Beard]

On to the ECM and by T120 the hotspots are further west again - I suspect this will lead to the heat hanging around for longer.

 

The 22C line into Cornwall - Knocker will be rushing to the coast to escape the heat

 

T144 - less thundery activity (maybe in SW) and very, very hot. Notice the trough racing into the Atlantic - I wonder if this is setting us up for a second plume as it engages the main trough and swings up in a NE direction?

 

 

T168 - it's absolutely relentless across virtually the whole country. Most people will be wishing for the end by now

 

And as I alluded to above, even hotter weather again is lurking to the south, probably with our name on it...

 

And here it is: T192 (Saturday) - the 20C mark is back again and vast swathes of the country have now been under 18C 850s for four days!

 

 

If you lie awake dreaming of heatwaves, for 80% of the UK's citizens, this is the run that you have dreamed of. It will not get any better than this (or worse, if you can't stand the heat).

 

Come on BA, Admit it!! The July record could go!!

Edited June 26, 2015 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is even hotter than the 6z, the plume looks stronger and extends well north into scotland. The thing that pleases me the most is that all of the UK is going to feel the effect of the hot spell..next week looks incredible.

[Nick L]

ECM max temps for the coming week:

 

Monday 23c

Tuesday 26c

Wednesday 30c

Thursday 33c

Friday 34c(!)

 

Another searing run.

[Winter Cold]

New balls please......OOPS.........I mean new scale needed please!!!   

 

[knocker]

On to the ECM and by T120 the hotspots are further west again - I suspect this will lead to the heat hanging around for longer.

 

The 22C line into Cornwall - Knocker will be rushing to the coast to escape the heat

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not a problem, salvation is imminent.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Timmytour]

New balls please......

Could we see the first ever time the roof over Centre Court is used to protect players from the heat?

[Nick L]

Saturday on the ECM...

 

 

Some of the minima are quite concerning too, this could be dangerous heat.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Could we see the first ever time the roof over Centre Court is used to protect players from the heat?

 

hottest Wimbledon of all time coming up?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Saturday on the ECM...

 

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Some of the minima are quite concerning too, this could be dangerous heat.

 

I'm guessing a line of storms there E Wales, W Mids, NW England...

[Nick L]

I'm guessing a line of storms there E Wales, W Mids, NW England...

 

You guessed right, some vicious storms on that.

[Summer Sun]

ECM not backing doen either

 

 

Heatwave warnings could be out before the end of the weekend if this keeps up

[I remember Atlantic 252]

You guessed right, some vicious storms on that.

 

let's hope this comes off then! GFS is pants, no storms showing

[shaky]

well theres not much to say about the ecm apart from the fact that we get put into the oven for quite some time!!also if the ecm does actually come to reality it could be dangerous!!!

[Man With Beard]

ECM T216 - I would think 90F is still achievable in the SE even by this time - look what's coming up from the Atlantic, the following week is not going to cold either if this run works out (FI by now though)

[mhielte]

Fantastic to see ECM so enthusiastically on board. Prepare yourselves for a classic, memorable week to come! Lets hope records get broken and the vulnerable stay safe 

[Frosty.]

GFS is pants, no storms showing

No storms showing?

I can see some

[Captain Shortwave]

Well even on an output like we have just seen the ECM still manages to create a chart with a nagging north to north west wind

Because the mid twenties will feel like the Arctic after the charts preceding this 

 

Seriously, this run could be summed up as extreme, to see the ECM actually predict highs widely of 35C is remarkable. Unfortunately in depth analysis is forbidden due to the swear filter.

[Nick L]

Well even on an output like we have just seen the ECM still manages to create a chart with a nagging north to north west wind

Because the mid twenties will feel like the Arctic after the charts preceding this 

 

Seriously, this run could be summed up as extreme, to see the ECM actually predict highs widely of 35C is remarkable. Unfortunately in depth analysis is forbidden due to the swear filter.

 

With the heat being shown, I'm sure the majority would welcome a refreshing breeze!

[SP1986]

No storms showing?

I can see some

 

 

Interestingly the first map posted, shows a potential seabreeze storm scenario.. around Liverpool Bay in the Irish sea coastal area.. however the downturn to that would be temperatures as much as 10-15C lower in these coastal areas than some parts inland.

Edited June 26, 2015 by SP1986

[Frosty.]

I love extreme weather and in terms of summer heat with T-Storm potential, I don't think we could do much better than the Ecm 12z shows, these are insanely gorgeous charts. I tried to resist posting these again but the force was too strong. BBQ and cold beer heaven next week!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like,  and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time  and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days.....      Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...    

[Costa Del Fal]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like, and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days..... Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...

No. No. No. Im sorry but this post is just not right. We have seen very impressive consistency of this for some time now and arguably the Synoptics for the start of this spell are already building now. If this was a mega cool spell you certainly wouldn't be saying this. It might not be your weather Preference but deal with it. These are charts not seen for years. High pressure to the east should not Mean the usual 'Kent clipper' scenario. Far from it. This goes back to 2006 days currently. You have Made it clear you don't like hot weather. Fine but don't knock the rest of us down for merely commenting what the charts say.

Sorry for the rant but it has to be said. I'm disappointed such unconstructive posts are made by yourself.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[JK1]

Please don't downgrade please don't downgrade please don't downgrade, those charts looks perfect i really wish we could beat the july record

Edited June 26, 2015 by JK1

[Nick L]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like,  and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time  and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days.....      Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...    

 

Are you on a wind up?

 

There has been remarkable consistency across a range of models for some serious heat next week.