Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Man With Beard]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like,  and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time  and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days.....      Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...    

Yes, we need to wait another 36 hours or so before counting chickens, I think. UK weather is just too unpredictable and even 200 mile shifts change masses

[Scorcher]

Spectacular runs again tonight- the naysayers will soon be very quiet, as this is now in the reliable timeframe and we are actually seeing upgrades rather than downgrades in terms of longevity of this spell. Some of us have been waiting for charts like this for years. Even 2013 didn't generate this kind of excitement- it was consistently very good but not always spectacular in July 2013.

 

Certainly the best summer charts since 2006, and perhaps even better than a lot of charts back then. Just for comparison, I was looking at the charts from August 3rd 1990, when stations in NW England reached 34C, and the uppers are not on the level of the charts we are seeing. 

 

Edited June 26, 2015 by Scorcher

[SW Saltire]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like, and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days..... Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...

Evidence please.

As someone who isn't as skilled as many on here at reading and crucially, accurately interpreting the charts, I'd love for you to show me the evidence for your claims....

It seems to me that you WANT downgrades.

'Cloud Cuckoo land' is 96 hours until the heat starts to hit, the building blocks are almost underway now.

I note the two charts you attached would result in very warm weather.

Also, since when was 34c+ not a 'heatwave'?

Scotland is predicted on some charts to get 30c, considering maxes are consistently undercooked we could be within 1/2c of the ALL TIME record and this isn't a 'heatwave'? What is a heatwave then to you because I think we could be looking at temperatures 10-15c above the average for July...

To me, that IS a heatwave.

Would maxes of -5c in winter be a cold spell? I think it would.

Edited June 26, 2015 by SW Saltire

[Frosty.]

Are you on a wind up?

 

There has been remarkable consistency across a range of models for some serious heat next week.

He's avin a laff nick, next week is all about the heatwave.

[William Grimsley]

Even if I don't see any thunderstorms (which looking at the recent run on the NetWx-MR for ML CAPE & LI looks unlikely), just reading this thread makes me even happier, I can't wait to possibly sit through the best heatwave since 2006, I just don't want it to be too hot!

Edited June 26, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Jezzer]

Spectacular runs again tonight- the naysayers will soon be very quiet, as this is now in the reliable timeframe and we are actually seeing upgrades rather than downgrades in terms of longevity of this spell. Some of us have been waiting for charts like this for years. Even 2013 didn't generate this kind of excitement- it was consistently very good but not always spectacular in July 2013.

 

Certainly the best summer charts since 2006, and perhaps even better than a lot of charts back then. Just for comparison, I was looking at the charts from August 3rd 1990, when stations in NW England reached 34C, and the uppers are not on the level of the charts we are seeing. 

 

Will be interesting to see how Wimbledon plans to handle this possible outcome as those temperatures usually lead to an extreme heat policy. Really does appear to be a repeat of July 2006!

[Mapantz]

Heat stroke has kicked in already!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Will be interesting to see how Wimbledon plans to handle this possible outcome as those temperatures usually lead to an extreme heat policy. Really does appear to be a repeat of July 2006!

Players will be used to this though, may not be a big deal to organisers

[SP1986]

Spectacular runs again tonight- the naysayers will soon be very quiet, as this is now in the reliable timeframe and we are actually seeing upgrades rather than downgrades in terms of longevity of this spell. Some of us have been waiting for charts like this for years. Even 2013 didn't generate this kind of excitement- it was consistently very good but not always spectacular in July 2013.

 

Certainly the best summer charts since 2006, and perhaps even better than a lot of charts back then. Just for comparison, I was looking at the charts from August 3rd 1990, when stations in NW England reached 34C, and the uppers are not on the level of the charts we are seeing. 

 

 

 

I suspect it had been dry for a while though back then.. while it's been mostly dry recently, the last few days have put some moisture back into the ground, which may prevent those mid-30s from occurring.. not to forget the dreaded sea breezes. Besides it reached 35C here in 2003. We'll see but it will almost certainly reach mid-30s somewhere, if these charts stay more or less in the place they are now, without any downgrades.

[Geordiesnow]

No. No. No. Im sorry but this post is just not right. We have seen very impressive consistency of this for some time now and arguably the Synoptics for the start of this spell are already building now. If this was a mega cool spell you certainly wouldn't be saying this. It might not be your weather Preference but deal with it. These are charts not seen for years. High pressure to the east should not Mean the usual 'Kent clipper' scenario. Far from it. This goes back to 2006 days currently. You have Made it clear you don't like hot weather. Fine but don't knock the rest of us down for merely commenting what the charts say.

Sorry for the rant but it has to be said. I'm disappointed such unconstructive posts are made by yourself.

 

I don't think the post is right either however devil is still in the detail and the trigger low which helps to form the ridge and helps to eject the heat northwards is one of those tricky shallow low pressure systems which are going to be hard for the models to deal with. 

 

I do feel things are going to warm up but will it get to the 'hot' stage and how long will it last for? The 'downgrade' will come from the timing of any hot/humid air(e.g the low heads towards the UK than the models are thinking) and/or just how much heat actually gets pumped up. 

 

Still a little uncertain on the final orientation of the high and low pressure systems but the trend does suggest a SSE'LY/SE'ly wind is likely so the further West you are, the hotter it likely to be. 

[karlos1983]

All for heat and the extremes, but the thought of being at the F1 at Silverstone next week in that heat is pretty daunting. 30c ok, but much above no thanks. Elderly and vulnerable could be in real trouble

Edited June 26, 2015 by karlos1983

[A.J]

I love extreme weather and in terms of summer heat with T-Storm potential, I don't think we could do much better than the Ecm 12z shows, these are insanely gorgeous charts. I tried to resist posting these again but the force was too strong. BBQ and cold beer heaven next week!

use your own damn memes Karl...I'm copyrighting those....lol

 

ECM's forecast for Cornwall

 

 

Having just viewed the GFS12z

 

[mushymanrob]

Evening folks... The up coming so called heatwave is over dramatized in my opinion. Media hysteria and the like,  and most folks who read weather models know that the "Heatwave " is in cloud cuckoo land. Folks saying how high temps will be in a weeks time  and how many thunderstorms are going to happen is lunacy to me. Both gfs and Ecm are modelling heat to perhaps the extreme, expect downgrades to happen in the next couple of days.....      Sensationalism in the 21st century is alive and kicking...    

Thats a brave call, i hope if you are proven wrong that youll have the grace to admit it as eagerly as you would if you are correct.

I cant see how now we will avoid at least several days of hot weather, every indication suggests its so, even the reticent bbc are saying itll happen. Every model, every output, supports it, so i take my hat off to you if uou know better

[nick sussex]

I suspect it had been dry for a while though back then.. while it's been mostly dry recently, the last few days have put some moisture back into the ground, which may prevent those mid-30s from occurring.. not to forget the dreaded sea breezes. Besides it reached 35C here in 2003. We'll see but it will almost certainly reach mid-30s somewhere, if these charts stay more or less in the place they are now, without any downgrades.

You make a good point re ground conditions, generally the highest temps are recorded after a decent period of dry weather. The evaporation of that surface moisture can suppress temps however soil type is also important areas with more sandy based soil would have an advantage.

 

Positively the flow associated with the next weeks heatwave is moving through France where its been quite dry for the last week, Monday and Tuesday look dry for the UK so this should help dry things out a bit with Wednesday and Thursday looking like the first bites of the cherry for some very hot conditions.

 

The latest forecasts here have the heat holding on for the whole week so  it might be that another opportunity might occur for the UK if things fall into place.

 

Current thinking is that any thunderstorm activity is more likely to head north in the western fringes of France so the east and se of the UK might remain hot for a bit longer. Anyway that's a long way off so could change.

[Gael_Force]

Players will be used to this though, may not be a big deal to organisers

 

The players might be but the spectators are a different story! The heat being forecast on the models is fine if you have air conditioning or can jump in a pool. I doubt many will find it pleasant sitting out in full sunshine, mid afternoon.

 

Just to add the following with regard to ground moisture.

 

Edited June 26, 2015 by Gael_Force

[knocker]

use your own damn memes Karl...I'm copyrighting those....lol

 

ECM's forecast for Cornwall

 

nga09.jpg

 

Having just viewed the GFS12z

 ngadz.jpg

 

But you really need to brush up your geography, Cambourne's in Cambridgeshire.

[Cheshire Freeze]

But you really need to brush up your geography, Cambourne's in Cambridgeshire.

 

I always thought it was Cornwall too to be fair and I did a Geog degree! Turns out Camborne is in Cornwall and Cambourne is in Cambridgeshire. Both pronounced the same though!

[StormChaseUK]

All for heat and the extremes, but the thought of being at the F1 at Silverstone next week in that heat is pretty daunting. 30c ok, but much above no thanks. Elderly and vulnerable could be in real trouble

I have been every year since 1989 missing a couple during that time, but even a big fan myself might give it a miss this year.

 

The sun trap of that airfield is intense even in 20C temps

[Frosty.]

use your own damn memes Karl...I'm copyrighting those....lol

 

ECM's forecast for Cornwall

 

nga09.jpg

 

Having just viewed the GFS12z

 ngadz.jpg

No worries aj..Looking forward to the heatwave...and on the subject of heat, the Gem 12z is looking hot and sultry next week, I can't believe there are still a few on here not buying it, the evidence is stacking up for a nationwide hot spell.

[Guest]

Thats a brave call, i hope if you are proven wrong that youll have the grace to admit it as eagerly as you would if you are correct.

I cant see how now we will avoid at least several days of hot weather, every indication suggests its so, even the reticent bbc are saying itll happen. Every model, every output, supports it, so i take my hat off to you if uou know better

More a brave hope than a call given the ensembles. He's a renowned coldie though. Each to their own. There's no sensationalism outside of the tabloids.

[Daniel*]

Hope springs eternal going by some posts here. I'd say you are delusional if you think there is not going to be some heatwave of some form. The charts I've seen exemplify we're heading for a realm we've not seen since 2006. I think this justifies some caution, tone down in excitement as potentially lives may be lost but endeavouring is never without challenge. And the sad fact that's the way it is. I think all should respect people's likes and dislikes and find understanding in others ideologies. It may not suit you - but then again who asked you to retaliate, honesty is the best policy with the charts to verify. I have seen all the models and there's growing communality of a hot old week there's no going back from this. Enjoy as such synoptics come roughly every 5-10 years. It is just the weather and it will do what it pleases.

[summer blizzard]

GFS - Initially the real heat is pushed back (was Tuesday a few days ago, Thursday now from the 12z for 30C) however it also slows the front bringing the breakdown to Sunday now so Thurs-Sun sees the core of the heat. We still get the thundery front on Friday so watch out for that. 

 

 

GEM - GEM has no breakdown through day 10. Probably the best chart is day 8. 

 

 

Euro - Euro breaks down Sunday however Friday looks the peak.

 

[bluearmy]

go back to the early part of the week (perhaps even last sunday) and you find the models drifting away from the possible heatwave.  i recall posting that the only two ways to the heat were for the atlantic trough to dig far south, west of iberia, or a heat low to drift north across us from iberia. neither looked likely at that particular timescale although the anomolys were still supportive of a warm to hot solution. now it seems we get both the digging trough and heat low(s). it looks like becoming stifling (v uncomfortable off the back of a below av cet june) though i remain confident that the july temp records will remain intact (for the time being)

[knocker]

I always thought it was Cornwall too to be fair and I did a Geog degree! Turns out Camborne is in Cornwall and Cambourne is in Cambridgeshire. Both pronounced the same though!

 

But the former is steeped in history and full of retired intellectuals whilst the latter is new and full of yuppies.

[bluearmy]

But the former is steeped in history and full of retired intellectuals whilst the latter is new and full of yuppies.

 

sounds like NW and TWO .............