Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[karlos1983]

GFS 06z looking very similar to it's 00z out to +120

Edited June 27, 2015 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

I think this GFS run will have more of a second wave to it (I.e. Saturday/Sunday)

Just because the GFS has the most output doesn't mean its the most accurate. The ECM remains very hot for 5 days, both op and end - and statistically it usually out performs the GFS.

[bluearmy]

GFS 06z looking very similar to it's 00z out to +120

 

the jet a bit more amplified over the atlantic means a sharper trough to our west and a slightly less progressive outcome. the start of the usual gfs backtrack or settling on the actual more progressive solution ??

[Yarmy]

For a downgrade, the GFS 0Z still looks good to me in the reliable timeframe:

Edited June 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[SP1986]

In the near-mid term it's comparable in the near term (maybe slightly quicker to break things down initially in the west), but a reload of warm air by the 3rd is a better evolution that the previous two runs, so it looks like were into the scenario of model comprimise we always seem to get (where in the middle it'll settle), which for us means a decent spell of warm-very warm weather which perhaps some convective interest, particularly in the west.

[shaky]

and just like that the gfs backtrack begins!!further west again on this run and very similar to ecm/ukmo at around the 144 hour mark!!scandi high is 10mb stronger aswell!!

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been moved here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82655-model-banter-moans-and-ramps-springsummer-2015/page-47#entry3220113 Please continue discussing the models.

Thanks, PM.

[Summer Sun]

GFS is upgrading the heat again

 

 

00z

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Low thirties possible on the GFS on Thursday, Friday and Saturday (33/34C on Saturday) again now which is an improvement, the second push of heights is much more successful though I suspect the Atlantic will plough through during the weekend again.

To be honest the Atlantic profile looks a mess in the sense of trying the work out how things will pan out, how will the trough interact with the Euro/Scandi ridge? What will be the outcome upstream as we have a ridge in the western Atlantic up to Greenland acting like a gate for any low pressure moving off the Eastern seaboard, how much will get through and on what trajectory and hence how it interacts with the stationary trough west of the UK.

Yay for uncertainty, though I would suspect that 90F is still highly likely for Wednesday, beyond that it could stay hot, cool down briefly or cool down full stop. 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

and just like that the gfs backtrack begins!!further west again on this run and very similar to ecm/ukmo at around the 144 hour mark!!scandi high is 10mb stronger aswell!!

 

Yes, Another run.. GFS 6z certainly holds on the the heat longer into next weekend. Wednesday still looks very warm indeed, With surface temps continuing to show hovering around 30c widely, Especially for the South.

 

6z

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[William Grimsley]

It seems like the GFS 6z is another upgrade as most probably expected. Definitely next weekend is looking much hotter especially further east but even further west aswell. It seems like 6z runs do seem to upgrade from the 0z runs.

Edited June 27, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Methuselah]

The Greenland High is going to cause lots of headaches with regard to the short terms solution even, I suspect.. this is evident as close as 90 hours. The low pressure to the west does seem to be getting a better hold each GFS run, we see a continuation of this on the 6z, however this does not mean that we won't get a warm, sunny period of weather, just that it may not be quite as hot as originally modelled, and perhaps a little bit more unsettled, perhaps. Still warm though even in that potential scenario.

Normally, I'd agree with you, Ste. But if (a very big 'if') the GFS's evolution is correct, most of the WAA is being pushed eastward into northern Europe, suggesting that the Eurohigh might be the more dominant feature; the Greeny, meanwhile, keeping LP pinned into the central Atlantic??

 

It all has me thinking that the pattern will stay relatively entrenched until the main source of hot air is cut off??

Edited June 27, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Summer Sun]

low pressure has a try later next weekend

 

 

But the high could win out

 

[SP1986]

Normally, I'd agree with you, Ste. But if (a very big 'if') the GFS's evolution is correct, most of the WAA is being pushed eastward into northern Europe, suggest that the Eurohigh might be the more dominant feature; the Greeny, meanwhile, keeping LP pinned into the central Atlantic??

 

It all has me thinking that the pattern will stay relatively entrenched until the main source of hot air is cut off??

 

Very possible still, any scenario is possible right now, and due to the meridional setup, very small change from east to west can result in massively different scenarios.. I wouldn't be surprised to be fair if the Euro High held on and ridged west again after an initial breaking down of sorts.. certainly the 6z is hinting it's moving in that direction?

[Tamara]

Warm, very warm (Sat to Monday) hot, very hot, hot (Tuesday to Saturday/Sunday) warm to very warm thereafter with the possibility of hot again, most especially further south and east in the extended period.

 

That would be my very crude broad-brush temperature assessment summary of the next 10 to 15 days. Whether one agrees with it or not - taken simply at face value most summer weather fans would not sneeze at it.

 

After the entertainment of the Tandoori clay oven charts of last night, this mornings modelling is more realistic (used in relative terms!) with prospects, following the significant heat through this week and into the weekend.

 

As posted and reasoned why yesterday, some flattening of our downstream pattern is to be expected after day 7 - but we are in a summer parallel position of what many cold weather winter fans would be drooling at in winter with deep cold surrounding us - as swathes of entrenched high summer surface heat will continue to be available to tap into at short notice to renew hot conditions.

 

This cross section, courtesy of WSI, of the highly amplified MJO activity crossing the Pacific towards the dateline evidences the long awaited and anticipated upswing in Atmospheric and Angular Momentum which, synoptically converted, has provided us with the downstream amplified pattern that brings us the heat from ole deep south next week

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CINZRTJUwAASH9L.png

 

Following our Asian Mountain Torque and associated amplification of the jet stream, the subsequent GWO orbit towards Phase 7 encapsulates the flatter pattern to follow, and the relative cool down expected from/after next weekend

 

Extended ensembles stay the warm side of average after the heatwave, but don't show further amplified heat (as yet) - but one would not expect then to at this stage.  Worth remembering the shoal of fish changing direction in mid stream analogy used a couple of weeks or so back when the atmospheric stalemate was finally set to break to Nino territory and dishing us out strong clues that things were set to change from extended coolness; and yet how fast this upcoming noteworthy hot spell has still crept up on us in the modelling, despite those clues?

 

I'm not one at all to cherry pick or overly examine any operational output with its inevitable variations on a theme, and always let the bigger picture drive the evolution of the intra day output as well as the upper anomaly charts, but, FWIW, the ECM operational this morning looks good enough forward value today. Just maybe a little slow clearing the greatest initial heat, but further ridging from the SW to follow looks a good way forward and not much renewed amplification of the pattern will be needed to heat things up once again from an above average ..lower benchmark...

 

So the overall gist of this will do for the time being by day 10

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015062700/ECH1-240.GIF?27-12

 

[Summer Sun]

Very possible still, any scenario is possible right now, and due to the meridional setup, very small change from east to west can result in massively different scenarios.. I wouldn't be surprised to be fair if the Euro High held on and ridged west again after an initial breaking down of sorts.. certainly the 6z is hinting it's moving in that direction?

 

Looking at the 06z the euro high is close by certainly a possibility as you say

 

[Robbie Garrett]

Thursday 2nd July/Friday 3rd July - High between 23-37°C.  Saturday, Sunday and Monday could hit 39°c  (I doubt it but the models have it somewhere in between at the moment, the sun is a lot stronger than 10th August that's for sure)

 

I wonder if the record could be broken?

[mushymanrob]

Re Mushymanrob above:

NOAA anomoly charts showing virtually no change from a week ago. Although I said above how Saturday onwards is too uncertain, the charts Mushy posts suggests to me a fair chance of another notable plume before too long

yes, it supports the ecm's current 're-load' suggestion, which is good news. either way beyond the initial heatwave its not looking bad, and the gfs 06z has backed off from its more progressive 'downgrade' falling into line more with the ecm and anomaly expectations.

looking good, looking very good

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z looks fantastic next week with increasingly hot and sultry continental conditions spreading to all parts of the UK with lots of strong sunshine and a growing risk of scattered intense thunderstorms breaking out and pushing N/E. Just when it looks like the heat is subsiding, the 6z produces an encore with temperatures soaring even higher in the S/E to 33/34c 92F.

Next week looks great, Wimbledon starts, we have a spanish plume, BBQ's and ice cold drinks..pretty good I think.

[knocker]

Thursday 2nd July/Friday 3rd July - High between 23-37°C.  Saturday, Sunday and Monday could hit 39°c  (I doubt it but the models have it somewhere in between at the moment, the sun is a lot stronger than 10th August that's for sure)

 

I wonder if the record could be broken?

 

True the sun is stronger but many things came together on August 10th that don't necessarily apply in this situation. For example it's thought the presence of very dry subsided air not far aloft which reached the surface following entrainment owing to boundary layer turbulence may have provided some additional subsidence warming.

[summer blizzard]

6z goes back to the two front approach of recent says (the scenario the Euro has)..

 

First front (thunder fans will like this) comes through on Thursday..

 

 

Then the second front bringing the breakdown moves through Saturday (Euro has it late Sunday)..

 

 

For the south weds-sat will be the best spell since at least 2013 if not 2006. For the north, the amount of rain these thundery fronts produce will probably be far more a concern. 

[knocker]

I can't see any sign of a second plume on the anomalies into the ext period. The ecm is going for the Azores HP to the SW and a flat W/SW zonality. Quite pleasant all the same.

 

Blast I've just remembered it's Maisie Day in Penance today.

[Robbie Garrett]

True the sun is stronger but many things came together on August 10th that don't necessarily apply in this situation. For example it's thought the presence of very dry subsided air not far aloft which reached the surface following entrainment owing to boundary layer turbulence may have provided some additional subsidence warming.

That one sentence was amazing. Quite technical, I seem to remember the wind completely changing direction during the day. It was very hot that's for sure, and I had a play-school trip to Kew Gardens that day ahha!

[Winter Cold]

One thing that im looking forward to most is the possibility of some great thunderstorms, its years since ive seen a 'proper' one.

 

Ive just been having a look on the GFS charts but ive not had much experience with CAPE etc. On Meteociel there is 'CAPE et LI' and 'MUCAPE MULI' and both look similar when running them through but should I be looking at one thing specificaly??

 

If im reading it right then Wednesday evening looks very fun going by this !?

 

[Polar Maritime]

Yes WC, Next Wednesday/Thurday is looking very good for Convective activity. A very interesting week coming up for sure with lot's to keep tabs on as the models firm up on detail.

 

More info here from Nick F https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83332-storm-convective-discussion-12th-june-2015-onwards/page-69#entry3220235 

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Polar Maritime