Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Frosty.]

This evenings GEFS day ten anomaly has the upper low off NW Scotland with the trough orientated SW and the ridge to the east. This means the LP will influence the UK more, particularly the NW half, with depressions able to nip between the low pressure and the Azores HP on the jet.  In the extended period the idea is still to relax the trough although LP still remains in the Iceland area and create a westerly zonal flow with the Azores HP edging it's nose in. Temps returning to normal but little precipitation.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

I'm sure that will change, it was only 5 days ago the models were showing an Atlantic trough feeding cool air across the UK for next week...oh how things have changed

[mhielte]

Is heatwave the correct term for his spell...doubt it but I used it as are the BBC?

 

What is a heatwave?

[Summer Sun]

The good news is ECM is backing UKMO at t144 with the high moving back west

 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mhielte]

Thank you. No heatwave but hot Weds till Sat.

Likely to be classed as a heatwave for your location though, going by the article I linked.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

ECM as expected dosen't look like bringing in the Atlantic, Friday looks hot but hopefully less humid? high pressure in control with more of an E breeze, 30C without humidity is it possible here? would feel okay

[knocker]

I'm sure that will change, it was only 5 days ago the models were showing an Atlantic trough feeding cool air across the UK for next week...oh how things have changed

 

You may well be right Frosty but last nights ext ECM was even more bullish on a zonal westerly with Azores ridging over the UK. We await tonights. it's still a pleasant outlook tho not so much so if you live in the NW.

[shaky]

fantastic ecm so far!!hot pretty much all the way to the weekend and the high reinforces itself!!

[bluearmy]

i wonder if the ecm op has enough in the split jet to drive an undercut day 7 ?

 

nope!

 

looks a bit 'forced' day 7. going to be another very high temp next sat in the se on ecm op.  main models not too far apart day 7 now.

Edited June 27, 2015 by bluearmy

[Wilxy]

ECM has cooler air pushing into western areas into Thursday but with the east hanging onto the heat as another ridge of high pressure pushes North

[Evening thunder]

ECM looks very hot on Wednesday.. I wonder if somewhere could scrape a 35C if that chart verified as shown? Maybe 34C a more likely bet 

Edited June 27, 2015 by Evening thunder

[I remember Atlantic 252]

fantastic ecm so far!!hot pretty much all the way to the weekend and the high reinforces itself!!

 

hoping it goes bang Saturday! ECM has the Atlantic trying to move in, already cooler in the far west/Ireland

[shaky]

hoping it goes bang Saturday! ECM has the Atlantic trying to move in, already cooler in the far west/Ireland

looks like pressure could build back in on sunday on this run!!lets see......!!

[h2005__uk__]

Does ECM show 2m temps or just 850s?

[Man With Beard]

ECM 12Z - very hot again, especially in the SE where uppers never get below 16C after Tuesday until Saturday - perhaps a touch less hot on Friday but Wednesday and Saturday still look like exceeding 90F, and Saturday still has potential for 95F.

However, that chart for Saturday looks rather bizarre to our north, with a quick build of heights towards Iceland. These rarely work out as modelled by ECM. Long way to go until Friday onwards is nailed.

[Milhouse]

Well a couple of days ago the heatwave was a possibility, now its pretty much a certainty that temperatures will soar in the coming week initially peaking on Wednesday, then falling back a touch before rising again towards the weekend back into the low 30s. But this second burst of heat is not nailed on yet.

 

The 15C isotherm reaching the north of Scotland next Saturday.

 

[knocker]

Does ECM show 2m temps or just 850s?

 

Weds 31C Bristol to Kent.

[shaky]

Weds 31C Bristol to Kent.

how far north do these 31 degree temps get?Manchester?

[knocker]

how far north do these 31 degree temps get?Manchester?

 

You are probably looking about high 20s.

[cheese]

Well a couple of days ago the heatwave was a possibility, now its pretty much a certainty that temperatures will soar in the coming week initially peaking on Wednesday, then falling back a touch before rising again towards the weekend back into the low 30s. But this second burst of heat is not nailed on yet.

 

The 15C isotherm reaching the north of Scotland next Saturday.

 

Looks very similar to the chart from early August 2013 that gave 34C to the SE and 31C as far north as York

 

[h2005__uk__]

Weds 31C Bristol to Kent.

 

What's the link to the 2m temps it's modelling?

[shaky]

You are probably looking about high 20s.

its weird cos gfs doesn't look as good but has temps of 30 degrees widely across england!!!

[knocker]

To be quite honest I wouldn't put too much trust in these temps at this stage.

 

And don't ask!!

 

Anthony Sagliani â€@anthonywx 37m37 minutes ago

ECMWF/GFS shows very large amplitude phase 6-7 MJO, which then dives off a cliff. Guessing this is Nino/CCKW related.

[Frosty.]

We, well most of us have waited so patiently for so long for a spell like the 12z output is showing, the Ecm 12z shows spanish plume conditions from Tuesday and it stays hot, at least across the southeast until next Sunday. The time has come to cash in or as Alan partridge would say, cash back..and enjoy a very continental week ahead. The ukmo 12z is potentially even better in terms of longevity. The only disappointed people are the ones who hoped things wouldn't warm up, so, unlucky for them but great for the vast majority on here, I love the buzz created by this upcoming heat, hope we get lots more in the next few months.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[Harps]

What's the link to the 2m temps it's modelling?

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

Tick model data from the menu on the right then choose ECMWF and '2mAG' for the 2m temps. Plenty of other parameters on there as well that as far as I know aren't available anywhere else

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, Well the Atlantic has made the headlines today with a big turnaround from the models in the last 24 hrs. Yes the plume is still there but with the Atlantics extra push  its much less fierce, less exceptional temps and pushed out the way very quickly. All in all it could be a one day wonder for some, but perhaps eastern Britain could see three hot days. So a downgrade for the heatwave but with a more Atlantic influence its an  upgrade for thunderstorms...impossible to tell at this stage but with the atmosphere primed during next week with heat and unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, a  great ingredient for some huge thunderstorms, something Im looking forward too, perhaps the news headlines wont be the so much the heat next week but with some places getting flash flooding...Interesting.