Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Geordiesnow]

I think the question we have regarding how high the temps will go is how sunny will this set up be? The BBC charts suggests quite a sunny set up but we seen before how thick high cloud can come up from the continent and not only that its also how much cloud will develop during the daylight hours in particular. 

 

Certainly looking forward too see how this will develop and how the models handle the potential 2nd plume also. 

[Frosty.]

Nobody beats Frosty for enthusiasm, all year round.

Cheers for that mushy Rob but I'm just a small cog in a large wheel.

Looking at the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, Great weeks weather coming up if you like heat, becoming very warm and humid, hot at times in the s/e and the plume comes back on fri/Sat...further outlook, staying warm / very warm in the south.

[wishfulwinter]

Cheers for that mushy Rob but I'm just a small cog in a large wheel.

Looking at the Ecm 12z ensemble mean, Great weeks weather coming up if you like heat, becoming very warm and humid, hot at times in the s/e and the plume comes back on fri/Sat...further outlook, staying warm / very warm in the south.

to modest frosty! You're at least 4 cogs in that wheel! (Sorry mods off topic but think most would agree)

[knocker]

("it seems to me that they have succeeded in their aim of dampening down enthusiasm in this thread for what is going to be wonderful spell of summer weather if you enjoy heat and interesting conditions")

I think we are still interested, but the forecast seems to be so certain that there seems little to discuss, and a lot of pre-emptive watering of gardens and making ice-cubes to be done, which is maybe taking up people's time, plus lots of normal "average " temperature summer weekend activities to be enjoyed before we all have to get hot and sweaty at work.

My twopence worth is a question about the next batch of heat: is it possible to look at the lows as they form over USA and work out which are most likely to give us the next extra swirl that flicks some more heat up from Spain. Not that it really matters, I just like to know where they start from.

 

Alicia Bentley's website is very good for GFS charts (one of the best I've seen) which allows you to track depressions easily amongst many other things,

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

[Captain Shortwave]

Another day and to be honest we still need quite a bit of time to establish the events which will occur Friday and Saturday. The ECM is fantastic and frankly the mid thirties would be possible if the skies are relatively clear, the feel in the south east would be borderline tropical in nature with high temperatures and humidity. It is though the outside solution with the consensus favouring a faster breakdown. That said this is still in the timeframe where we will see corrections east and west due to changes in the pattern, if this was 72 hours out then I would be bricking it as the natural progression seems to be shunting the highest heat east and into the low countries. At 5/6 days out then this could go the way of the ECM solution still.

Incredible charts though for early July, the fact we see this potentially happen twice is quite remarkable.

I suspect as others have already mentioned, the ECM solution could produce some mighty thunderstorms along the frontal boundary which pushes north east.

[Timmytour]

Going back to the EC 32 debate, the charts we see (even behind a paywall) are very limited. Means and anomolys for weeks 3 and 4 are likely to be vague. The data from ECM contains far more detailed charts that group together varying outcomes etc etc. sadly, very few get to see this.

Knocker kind enough to give you a broadbrush assessment but it's not going to be very helpful for weeks three and four.

...and I'd like to clarify that I really do appreciate the info Knocker gives us, and that in no way is my criticism of the EC32 meant in any way to reflect on him I have the utmost respect for his posts...he is someone I read full of appreciation for the knowledge he brings to his interpretation of the models.

Nevertheless, and this upcoming heatwave is a case in point, I really can't remember a time when a notable period of weather, such as we now seem to be embarking upon, was proclaimed to have been picked up first by the EC32. I do remember a time a couple of years ago Matt Hugo would regularly comment upon them on Twitter. Unfortunately I think Matt took a couple of reviews in perspective I took as personal criticism and blocked me!

[Frosty.]

to modest frosty! You're at least 4 cogs in that wheel! (Sorry mods off topic but think most would agree)

Cheers wishfulwinter, much appreciated

[Nouska]

...and I'd like to clarify that I really do appreciate the info Knocker gives us, and that in no way is my criticism of the EC32 meant in any way to reflect on him I have the utmost respect for his posts...he is someone I read full of appreciation for the knowledge he brings to his interpretation of the models.

Nevertheless, and this upcoming heatwave is a case in point, I really can't remember a time when a notable period of weather, such as we now seem to be embarking upon, was proclaimed to have been picked up first by the EC32. I do remember a time a couple of years ago Matt Hugo would regularly comment upon them on Twitter. Unfortunately I think Matt took a couple of reviews in perspective I took as personal criticism and blocked me!

 

The most recent verification period for the EC32 shows that it failed to pick up on the cool month that June has seen in many parts of western Europe.

 

 

I'll add the link below for looking back on this coming week, when the period is analysed.

 

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/mofc/verification/anomaly/anom_grp/vanomaly!2m%20temperature!Europe!mofc!2!anomaly!20150615!/

[Steve C]

Chelsea Steve? Wash your mouth out!

Anyway, the reason for my opinion on the non record based on several factors, mainly that the onset of the highest uppers is swift and we haven't had a period of high temps to set a conducive background and the start to Wednesday isn't likely to be ultra warm. Flow looks brisk also.

Past couple days, sat has looked the best chance to set the highest temp -mainly due to the v warm to hot background that the high uppers come back in against and a slacker sypnotic picture. Note this IS notable. To see uppers in the region of 20c pushing back in within a day or so of them departing is very rare indeed. So not a bog standard plume event due to the Saturday reload.

Tbh, I'm not certain that Saturday couldn't see the July record broken but for it to go, fri has to be warmer than currently modelled (possible) and Saturday has to deliver long sunny periods (also possible)

Watch this space!

Thanks for the clarification and my midnight chuckle. For some reason I've always thought you supported Chelsea. Maybe it's because of your relative proximity to a successful team in blue. I definitely appreciate that you know your Stuff though.

[Woollymummy]

Alicia Bentley's website is very good for GFS charts (one of the best I've seen) which allows you to track depressions easily amongst many other things,

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

Absolutely brilliant link, thank you, just what I was hoping for :-)

[summer blizzard]

Euro is a little progressive, gets the job done on Friday night in terms of killing chances of 30C+.

 

[knocker]

The GFS isn't pushing the temp envelope quite so much this morning with Wednesday being the warmest in the low 30sC around London. The second wave on Saturday is not so warm and a touch too far east with a light SW flow in the lower levels making Friday the last really warm day. It has the small low Wednesday morning running north through Cornwall and Wales. The last fax chart I've seen has the cold front down central England 12z Thursday.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Saturday's potential temp reload is stifled somewhat on ECM this morning compared to its previous runs. Given the lack of ens members wanting to push this, i suspect the July record is safe from this particular 'heatwave'.

[knocker]

You were sweating there for a while (so to speak). I notice also that you were correct in nudging me vis the trough to the west on the ext anomalies as I see last night the ecm running with it at T360 and the 8-14 NOAA is still on board. Your on a roll.

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

You were sweating there for a while (so to speak). I notice also that you were correct in nudging me vis the trough to the west on the ext anomalies as I see last night the ecm running with it at T360 and the 8-14 NOAA is still on board. Your on a roll.

We will all be sweating this week mate!

Re the extended, depends if the trough can dig as per this week. It could be mobile and just generate a sw phase to the evolution. Generally speaking, things do tend to repeat though not necessarily to the same extent

[knocker]

We will all be sweating this week mate!

Re the extended, depends if the trough can dig as per this week. It could be mobile and just generate a sw phase to the evolution. Generally speaking, things do tend to repeat though not necessarily to the same extent

 

Quite and at the risk of stating the obvious you wouldn't want pressure build In Europe to be too far east. All to play for.

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

ECM has a big improvement for week 2 this morning with further reloads of the heat not out the question

 

 

UKMO seems to have eased off as well for the low with it now staying out west

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON MONDAY JUNE 29TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm SE airflow will move North across the UK in the next 24-48 hrs as troughs of Low pressure near the far West move away North tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow troughed to the West of the UK over the Atlantic. The flow then returns North across the UK for the majority of this week before veering to a more SW to NE flow over the UK next weekend and beyond as the mid Atlantic Low pressure drifts more to the NE of it's current position to lie to the North and NW of the UK next week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a very warm or hot week to come especially tiwards the South and East of the UK. Some scattered thundery showers within high humidity os possible but fresher air over the West and North will make inroads across the UK at times this week. A largely SE/NW split in the weather remains for some time into week 2 too with the SE remaining largely very warm and sometimes humid well into the second week before the generally cooler and more changeable conditions in the NW are shown to spread to all areas by the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a virtually identical pattern in the first week and start to the second before it diverges from it's operational brother in bringing new warm summer High pressure across Southern Britain later in week 2 with any unsettled, cooler and changeable weather mostly restricted to the North and NW next week.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show High pressure out to the SW with the warmth having largely been pushed back away to the SE by then with some indication of showery Low pressure then lying up to the North and NE of the UK

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a very warm period of weather to come and hot in the SE with some incursions of cooler and fresher air slowly making progress East across the UK at times accompanied by scattered thundery showers.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support humid and sultry conditions to the East of Atlantic thundery troughs occasionally moving East across England and Wales from mid to late week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather developing through this week with the East and SE likely to show the highest temperatures. Some ingress of cooler and fresher air will affect the North and West at times and as this infiltrates into the East and SE at times it may be coupled with some thundery showers. A North/South split then develops next week with rain at times in the North with relatively dry and fine weather becoming restricted to the far South where it may still be warm or very warm at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions from the middle of this week never look like becoming far away from the South and SE of Britain with any notable coolness and more changeable weather conditions restricted to Northern and Western regions.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning looks the best of the bunch this morning if it's fine and sunny weather with high temperatures that floats your boat. This week sees the East and South especially seeing some high temperatures with high humidity at times sparking a few thundery showers. Cooler and fresher as with the other output does cross the UK at times but is pushed back North and West at times by the persistent heat over the continent. Then towards the end of the period High pressure forms across the UK to settle things down in the North and West too to leave all the UK with fine, sunny and very warm weather late next week

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.4 pts followed by UKMO at 95.5 pts and GFS at 95.1. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.9 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.8 over 46.4. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 32.2 pts to 25.8 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS After the weekend and now that we are close to the much hyped heatwave across the UK this week it is nice to see that the models have come to agreement on the pattern for this week. All models show the very peak of warmth will lie across NW Europe and just affect the extreme East and SE through midweek with a rather cloudier, very warm and humid zone across Central areas of the UK where the risk of thunderstorms look greatest. Having mentioned thunderstorms it doesn't look as though they will be a widespread feature but where they do occur those affected will certainly know about them. The heat is looking more and more likely to come in two pulses, one towards midweek and again at the weekend with a period where many areas become a little cooler and fresher at the back end of this working week. As mentioned earlier the extreme SE and East will likely see temperatures well in excess of 30C and possibly 35C Wednesday and again towards the weekend. Elsewhere 25-30C is more likely and as the cooler air passes a more comfortable 22-25C looks likely. Nevertheless, these are all very impressive temperatures and nowhere looks like being cold over the next few weeks with even the NW seeing some warmer days between it's generally more changeable pattern with rain at times. As we look towards the later stages of the time period this morning most models support various methods of arriving at a North/South split in the weather where the South looks likely to hold on to some of the warmth generated this week. ECM is particularly impressive next week as it shows a nationwide spell of warm and sunny weather setting up under High pressure next week and it would be nice to see this enlarged upon over coming days. Still there is nothing alarmist about anything within the models this morning with even the thundery scenarios hinted at in earlier days watered down now to transient and very local downpours in association with the weak pushes of cooler air moving across from the West on occasion. 

 

Next update from 08:00 Tuesday June 30th 2015

[MR EXTREMES]

Excellent post by Gibby as normal.

The low to our west is likely to be held back with only slight inroad track into the UK.

What this will allow is the normal British type summer weather few days of heat thundery breakdown then reloads and alternating between sw south and southeast flow.

This was something I mentioned back last month which at times came close to fruition only heat was at that time not around to be drawn up.

But now heat is establishing itself into Europe and with atmospheric changes taking place in the pacific you can expect further reloads of warmth.

Although the extreme heat of the next few days or more,

maybe tempered down in future weeks there's no indication of a complete lock down in to a zonal type anywhere in the near future.

So OK we lose the scoarcher on Saturday but anything above 23c is pleasant and warm.

I still expect summer 2015 to be the best in a few years.

Almost certain to be a prodomantly humid thundery summer this year.

As Steve murr related to recently 20c upper air temp is rare as -15 in winter so anything above 13c upper air would relate to warm which is nice.

Anything above is a bonus so BBQ at the ready wellies for the storms and ditch the coats

[summer blizzard]

Interesting Euro run today slowing the trough which allows another little plume to the south on Mon/Tues. Pressure rebuilds afterward but upper temperatures are less exciting. 

 

GFS and GEM on the other hand are more in line with the modelling of recent days in that they breakdown at the weekend and then we get a broadly westerly pattern and N/S split (nothing unusual then). 

 

Euro ensembles would tend to back the GFS/GEM from day 8..

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows the first nationwide summery spell this week, across the board the temperatures soar into the 80's F and for parts of the south east..into the 90's. Super weather with long spells of hot hazy sunshine but becoming very humid, with an increasing chance of catching an intense thunderstorm, this run shows quite a few storms breaking out and spreading N/E. The plume pushes off to the east for a time with lower humidity on Thursday before spreading north again for fri/sat with increasing heat again. Further ahead, becoming fresher on Sunday from the west but staying warm in the south but cooler and more unsettled further north, a nice end to the run with high pressure over the UK.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

Clear signs that this week's plume isn't going to last - the NAO swinging back sharply positive suggesting a more "normal" set up of LP to the North-West and HP to the South-West. None of this precludes it being settled but it doesn't suggest a Plume-type S'ly or SE'ly flow. 

 

I have to say this is off the 00Z suite of runs and the 06Z looks different to what I was expecting.

[Frosty.]

Afternoon all

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

Clear signs that this week's plume isn't going to last - the NAO swinging back sharply positive suggesting a more "normal" set up of LP to the North-West and HP to the South-West. None of this precludes it being settled but it doesn't suggest a Plume-type S'ly or SE'ly flow.

I have to say this is off the 00Z suite of runs and the 06Z looks different to what I was expecting.

Interestingly the latest met office update says it will turn very warm and humid again next week away from the northwest of the BI after a cooler and fresher day on Sunday with an increasing chance of thundery showers in the south by next midweek which sounds to me like plume type weather returning, at least to the south, similar looking even further ahead too.

It doesn't sound to me like we will be seeing a return to the normal / sometimes unseasonably cool pattern which dominated most of June..ie LP to the northwest and HP to the southwest which is what the EC32 showed, the MO further outlook is for a continuation of summery weather apart from the occasional cooler blip..e.g. this coming Sunday.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

Interesting 6z run.. we end up unsettled before a high then moves over the UK before retrogressing to Greenland..

 

6z does not go with the Euro at day 10..

 

[Man With Beard]

Afternoon all

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

Clear signs that this week's plume isn't going to last - the NAO swinging back sharply positive suggesting a more "normal" set up of LP to the North-West and HP to the South-West. None of this precludes it being settled but it doesn't suggest a Plume-type S'ly or SE'ly flow. 

 

I have to say this is off the 00Z suite of runs and the 06Z looks different to what I was expecting.

Have to say your analysis fits with the NOAA 8-14 day anomaly forecast, to some extent:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Would suggest to me our weather will be more affected by what comes from the SW, whether troughs or highs. Some sort of NW / SE split could be the result.

However, I would not say it precludes any sort of plume. There is still the potential for heat to be drawn up on the back of a migrating high pressure cell as it moves from the Atlantic into Europe - as indeed looks like happening as early as D8 on most ens charts. Maybe this is what the METO are seeing.

In any event, I would expect another above average week next week in the SE, with 30C at risk at times, and perhaps nearer average in more NW areas. Just a small chance of the trough moving close enough to the UK to bring us all close to the average.