Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[mushymanrob]

Latest NOAA 8-14 anomaly

Still looking likely that the trough will be held out to our west (except perhaps creeping into NW areas). Still likely to be a block of some sort over the continent. Result: winds mostly drawn from a southerly quarter. Backs up tonight's ECM and the thoughts I posted above. Expect more heat at times next week then - likely to be more "normal" summer heat for the UK, though. Is it possible that 80F might be exceeded somewhere on each of the next 10 days?? (Sunday might be the dodgy day in the period)

Thats the 6-10day chart mate

Trouble is, i dont think it supports a large, lasting ridge over the uk, as per the ecm . It suggests a southwesterly upper flow, high to our southeast, low to our northwest giving us a rather unsettled pattern. Best summer weather confined to the southeast.

But hey, i could be wrong here..

Edited June 29, 2015 by mushymanrob

[Man With Beard]

Thats the 6-10day chart mate

Trouble is, i dont[/] think it supports a large, lasting ridge over the uk, as per the ecm . It suggests a southwesterly upper flow, high to our southeast, low to our northwest giving us a rather unsettled pattern. Best summer weather confined to the southeast.

But hey, i could be wrong here..

Oooops! Thank you. On reflection, I think you're right, it doesn't quite support the ECM as it suggests High pressure (generally) to our east but not over us. Warm to very warm, but never 100% settled. Yes indeed, NW areas not guaranteed a great week by that - though it's a close call for them rather than a definite wash-out.

[Frosty.]

Trouble is, i dont think it supports a large, lasting ridge over the uk, as per the ecm . It suggests a southwesterly upper flow, high to our southeast, low to our northwest giving us a rather unsettled pattern. Best summer weather confined to the southeast.

But hey, i could be wrong here..

Cheer up mushy, enjoy this week, the best week of this summer so far with hot sunshine and a very good chance of intense thunderstorms at times.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Have to say I'm not quite sure if I'm looking at the same charts as everyone else sometimes, The GFS 12Z has continued the walk away from the potentially record-breaking heat modelled a few days ago. 

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015062912/54-582UK.GIF?29-12

 

Wednesday topping out at 31c over a wide area and I happily agree we could see a 32-33c to the north west of London. 

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015062912/102-582UK.GIF?29-12

 

Friday - again 31-32c around or to the west of London.

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2015062912/126-582UK.GIF?29-12

 

Saturday - 32c in Norfolk but 30c elsewhere as the hottest of the air clips East Anglia briefly.

 

Hot, yes, unpleasantly humid, yes but exceptional - not for London and the SE though Wednesday might be an exceptional day in some parts of the country which can miss out on these plume events.

 

As for next week - warm/very warm certainly (25-27c) but I simply don't see the return of 30+ c heat.. Indeed, GFS 12Z OP FI confirms a sharp swing back to a positive NAO and a more "normal" synoptic flow with LP to the North and HP to the South and  to be honest the LP is the dominant factor as we move further into July. 

 

None of this precludes the return of heat later into July and August - Tamara certainly seems of the view the pattern will reset - maybe, but GFS isn't showing that at present and we need the progression of Atlantic LP systems to slow to enable pressure to rise over or to the east of the British Isles.

Yes, a few days ago I was ridiculed  for saying that this heatwave was over dramatized and sensational.  Look at the realistic picture, yes it will be hot , but nothing out of an ordinary for a  Spanish plume in the Uk, no record breaking temps and no longevity of heatwave  conditons  Perhaps Mr Micheal Fish as it right 3 hot days and a thunderstorm...

[knocker]

In tonight's anomalies the ECM has more pronounced ridging over Greenland and trough in mid Atlantic thus affecting the position of the LP to the NW. Both agree of weakish HP around the UK and to the SW. Thus in general a WSW/SW flow. Temperatures and weather will be influenced by smaller scale features that emerge within this framework in the fullness of time but at this juncture there would appear to be nothing bordering on extremes in the pipeline.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[Guest]

Was this plume forecast by the ECM anomalies?

[Guest]

Yes, a few days ago I was ridiculed  for saying that this heatwave was over dramatized and sensational.  Look at the realistic picture, yes it will be hot , but nothing out of an ordinary for a  Spanish plume in the Uk, no record breaking temps and no longevity of heatwave  conditons  Perhaps Mr Micheal Fish as it right 3 hot days and a thunderstorm...

Again, nobody is sensationalising this or over dramatising the heatwave. They were not previously either, with people linking to charts showing the potential for record breaking heat. That's unlikely to happen now we're in the reliable timeframe but 34-35c is on the cards in the SE and that's far from ordinary, and not far from record breaking. (Worth mentioning that date records locally may be broken). Ordinary, eh? So yes, your deliberately provocative posts will be shot down if you dampen peoples understandable enthusiasm with misleading negativity just because it isn't your preference.

[William Grimsley]

Again, looking at the charts this evening, the GFS gives still widespread heat across the UK throughout this week excluding the weekend. However, the NetWx-MR still tries to bring very unstable air through Tuesday Night and through the later stages of next week however it seems like a mid level cap is in place especially around here even though CIN values aren't too high which is quite confusing... I hope something does break through tomorrow night or through Friday Night but we shall have to wait and see, at least we're going to get some proper heat for once, even down in the SW.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ens mean shows warm / very warm weather persisting across the south/southeast next week with temperatures into the mid 20's celsius or a little above, largely fine in the south too, less warm and less settled across the northwest of the UK. It appears to be a nw/se split next week but having said that, we could still end up with high pressure in charge nationwide by days 9/10 like the ecm op.

[A.J]

Again, looking at the charts this evening, the GFS gives still widespread heat across the UK throughout this week excluding the weekend. However, the NetWx-MR still tries to bring very unstable air through Tuesday Night and through the later stages of next week however it seems like a mid level cap is in place especially around here even though CIN values aren't too high which is quite confusing... I hope something does break through tomorrow night or through Friday Night but we shall have to wait and see, at least we're going to get some proper heat for once, even down in the SW.

the hi-res NMM 4k model shows moderate to strong capping at the 1000/850hpa boundary layer and in the mid-levels, the CIN values are high (the more negative the figure, the stronger the cap)...hope this helps

Edited June 29, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[William Grimsley]

the hi-res NMM 4k model shows moderate to strong capping at the 1000/850hpa boundary layer and in the mid-levels, the CIN values are high (the more negative the figure, the stronger the cap)...hope this helps

Really? I don't see them being that high (about -50 to -100 j/kg)? Maybe I'm looking at the wrong chart. Ah well, we'll just have to wait and see...

[knocker]

Was this plume forecast by the ECM anomalies?

 

The anomaly wouldn't forecast the plume anyway merely the upper air pattern that would be conducive to one forming  I don't keep detailed records so can't flip back but I seem to remember they were caught out a tad by the sudden arrival of the Scandinavian HP. But my memory isn't what it was.

Edited June 29, 2015 by knocker

[A.J]

Really? I don't see them being that high (about -50 to -100 j/kg)? Maybe I'm looking at the wrong chart. Ah well, we'll just have to wait and see...

during the night time period, the SB CIN value is relevant for the synoptics in place, so we'll be looking at the ML CIN value, for tomorrow night, it's a pretty robust cap in place in the mid atmosphere, the cap is weakest over the SW, and in that region the upper cap is likeliest to be eroded giving rise to Ac Cas-like convection, a couple of hundred j/kg or so of capping will inhibit convection from developing generally speaking, although this particular model infers elevated convection more so(if any, over the Irish Sea, West Wales & Ireland)....I understand your posting from an IMBY perspective, but for the model threads, it's probably better to post in a more generalized UK perspective.....this is probably better suited to the storm/convective discussion thread so we can 'talk storm potential' over there as much as we want

[TwisterGirl81]

Again, nobody is sensationalising this or over dramatising the heatwave. They were not previously either, with people linking to charts showing the potential for record breaking heat. That's unlikely to happen now we're in the reliable timeframe but 34-35c is on the cards in the SE and that's far from ordinary, and not far from record breaking. (Worth mentioning that date records locally may be broken). Ordinary, eh? So yes, your deliberately provocative posts will be shot down if you dampen peoples understandable enthusiasm with misleading negativity just because it isn't your preference.

Sorry I don't know the history here between posters but just my two pennies worth that it isn't out of the ordinary for the South East to get temperatures in the early to mid thirties during summer, I should think the years they've not reached those temperatures are very few and far between... Southeast always benefit from continental heat when the wind Is in the right direction....If however it was further west and north that were going to get those temps then yes it would be slightly out of the ordinary (we hit over 32 last year twice in Exeter, Devon)

Anyway enjoy the heat and sun especially the southeast, looks like you'll be getting the intense thunderstorms as per usual too grrr

We're forecast to get 28 temp wise here so can't complain except on that day I'm working a 13 hour day argh, hopefully Saturday will be nice so I can go to one of our lovely beaches

Edited June 29, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[Costa Del Fal]

Saturday definitely looking likely to be a hot day now. Even most of the midlands aren't far off 30c again on the 18z with 33c for EA and London. Could get very close to the record this if those models stay similar and a usual 1-3c underestimation is factored in.

[Sainsbo]

NMM 18z showing 34C for London on Wednesday!

 

[Woollymummy]

Am I right in thinking that it is this circle of persistent lows around the globe that are giving us and lots of other countries our heatwaves/warm summer weather this year? If you run through the animation they take a long time to move or change, is that good for heatwave fans?

[knocker]

Am I right in thinking that it is this circle of persistent lows around the globe that are giving us and lots of other countries our heatwaves/warm summer weather this year? If you run through the animation they take a long time to move or change, is that good for heatwave fans?

 

I don't think so Woolly but this might be of interest.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/32704-north-american-weather-usa-canada/page-192#entry3221470

 

And this

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/62971-new-research/page-93#entry3221469

Edited June 30, 2015 by knocker

[terrier]

Looking at the gfs 00z it looks like a north/south split next week. Cooler and showery in the north. Whilst the south remains on the warmer side of things. Temps around average in the north while the south remains in the twenties.

[mushymanrob]

Saturday definitely looking likely to be a hot day now. Even most of the midlands aren't far off 30c again on the 18z with 33c for EA and London. Could get very close to the record this if those models stay similar and a usual 1-3c underestimation is factored in.

 

cant see that myself..

looks a right mess after overnight/early morning storms/rain, overcast, muggy, grey, murky, but warm.   not what i want for my daughters wedding.

next week is looking unsettled, with warm/hot periods in a mobile southwesterly pattern, the one the anomaly charts have consistently suggested lies ahead ... so unforunately no pressure build as per yesterdays 12z ecm.

[William Grimsley]

Looks like the latest GFS run has given a further upgrade on temperatures this week and NetWx-MR still going for fairly unstable air tonight and throughout Friday Night with now the possibility of some more unstable air coming in later on Tuesday next week.

 

The problem here as already mentioned is that we have a strong cap at mid level during this evening and overnight and mid level altitudes meaning any energy is cut off due to ML CIN. I'm not sure why this CIN is around as can't see any reason why. This will stop any thunderstorms from developing this evening and overnight and may only produce a few moderate/heavy showers in the most unstable air.

 

I think we will have to wait and see how Friday Night pans out but this could also be a "damp spuib", IMO. But, lets try and not be negative and we all might get lucky!

[knocker]

Just for a change the ECM has a typhoon at 900mb in the western Pacific.

Chart weatherbell

 

[Polar Maritime]

Into Wk 2 the GFS continues to show a N/W - S/E Split under W/SW Flow. As weak fronts clip Scotland, And Hight's wax and wane in the South. 

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON TUESDAY JUNE 30TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An increasingly warm then hot SE flow covers the UK with a thundery trough edging in towards Western Britain tomorrow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times

.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow moving North or NE over the British Isles over the next week or so. It ebbs and flows somewhat but has a trend to veer more towards a West or SW to East or NE trajectory with time.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows occasional periods of hot conditions across the SE over the next week and warm conditions elsewhere at times each time with cooler fresher air invading preceded by a period of thundery rain or potential storms. Then in the second week a more coherent push towards cooler and fresher weather looks likely with Westerly winds and rain at times especially in the North though still with some dry and warm conditions at times across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows a similar pattern though it takes until well into the second week to see significantly cooler weather reach the far SE with a continuation of a lot of fine and dry weather down here while the North sees more occasional rain on a Westerly flow.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show a lot of NW winds in two weeks time around an Azores High with significantly cooler conditions than currently with some showery rain at times especially across the North and East.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows very warm or hot weather to start the weekend before an active thundery trough clears NE on Saturday with fresher and cooler weather over the weekend in a SW flow with some further showery rain at times in the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air moving NE over the UK at the weekend though the 96hr and 120hr chart usually updated late last evening have not updated on my browser.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

GEM GEM today shows very warm or hot weather breaking down at the weekend but never entirely leaving the far SE. It continues to show more incursions of heat next week towards these parts with warm weather at times elsewhere too with further thundery outbreaks possible as the Atlantic fresher air continues to fight back across the UK. High pressure never moves far away from Southern Britain too as an extension of Azores ridge at the end of the run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM shows pulses of cooler and fresher air making it's way across the UK on occasion through the next week but the fine and very warm or hot conditions at the end of the week look like being the last of the very high temperatures for a time. A lot of fine and warm weather then predominates next week across the South with the cooler fresher westerly winds in the North delivering occasional rain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

ECM ECM today shows hot weather at the end of the week being displaced by a trough of  Low pressure introducing cooler and fresher Atlantic air. the precursor to this will be some thundery rain or storms especially over the east. thereafter fresher air holds more control across the UK with the heat held to the South. Some rain or showers are likely too at times but more especially across the North of the UK with winds settling into a cool NW'ly late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with Low pressure up to the North and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.3 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.0. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.0 pts with GFS at 82.4 pts and UKMO at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 45.6. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 26.1 pts to 21.7 pts.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig
 

MY THOUGHTS The general outlook remains very similar this morning with the heat of the coming days gradually relaxing away to the South after the end of the working week. The message is as before up to that point with some very high temperatures tomorrow and again on Saturday with a few thunderstorms briefly as the cooler Atlantic air begins to make inroads behind a couple of thundery troughs tomorrow night and Friday night. Thereafter it looks that the hot weather will more likely be held the other side of the channel while most of the UK-though pleasantly warm at times-see fresher Atlantic winds from the West keep warmth to more modest levels and restricted to the South as fronts further North crossing from the West bring occasional rain or showers at times. It never looks though that hot weather will be far away from the South and SE of the UK and some models demonstrate this by feeding it back into the South and SE at times and, while the build of High pressure building back across the South of the UK shown by last night's ECM has been removed this morning I'm sure it will feature in other runs over the coming days. It certainly looks likely that blisteringly high temperatures are a temporary feature but while there is nothing unpleasant shown within the models plenty of warm weather should be experienced for many over the next few weeks with just the occasional summer shower to freshen the air and always the chance of a rebuild of heat from the South or SE.

 

Next update from 08:00 Wednesday July 1st 2015

[Summer Sun]

NMM is going for a high of 32c tomorrow with even parts of northern Scotland hitting 30c, part of northeast Scotland though struggle to reach 15c could be looking at some huge contrasts tomorrow with close to 30c in Inverness and the mid teens in Aberdeen 

 

Edited June 30, 2015 by Summer Sun