Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Captain Shortwave]

Swings and roundabouts really during the second half of next week, but at least the pub run shows off point 2 from me earlier, better advection of the second pulse of heat.

 

 

One run obviously but again 30C seems possible any day between Wednesday and Saturday.

Lets see how tomorrows runs go.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Awesome 18z next week, another cracker with a strong spanish plume extending north from Tuesday, and another plume tastic encore at the end of next week with 33/34c in the south east. Next week is going to become hot, the heat is going to be accentuated by the soaring humidity and the 18z shows a lot of storms breaking out next week, night storms are the best and there looks like being plenty. So....Lots of hot sunshine, watching those towering thunder clouds grow, Wimbledon, BBQ..ice cream, have a week off work and enjoy it

Edited June 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[Timmytour]

Latest EC32 update

 

Starting at day ten there is a weak trough Greenland running SE west of the UK, ridging mid Atlantic and weakish HP north of Scandinavia. Thus the surface analysis would incline towards LP Iceland, westerly flow and average temps.

 

During the next week up to the 2th July  the Azores ridge reasserts itself and the trough disappears although the main centre of the HP does yo yo a bit back and forth down SW way there is a mainly flat NW/W flow over the UK with temps still around average.

 

This broadly speaking remains the situation for the next week until the 9th with temps a touch below average

 

And, surprise surprise, this scenario continues until the end of the run on the 17th July with temps around average.

 

Summary

 

One feels a bit underwhelmed. After a possibility of unsettled weather 25-27th ( I know)  the rest of the period is dominated (not really the correct word) by the Azores HP to the south west bringing a NW/W flow over the UK which will remain very dry but temps only around average or a tad below. Being optimistic there is scope for some quite nice weather within this scenario.

One reason I can never get excited or despondent,nor indeed any other emotion that requires any form of attachment, about the EC32..... it's no more effective than a finger in the air

[Frosty.]

One reason I can never get excited or despondent,nor indeed any other emotion that requires any form of attachment, about the EC32..... it's no more effective than a finger in the air

LOL I agree, whats more important is what mogreps shows, unfortunately, we don't have access to that in the public domain but of course, a finger in the air works every time.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Frosty.

[A.J]

Quite a few posts removed......model discussion only, and let the moderaters do the moderating.....thanks

[knocker]

LOL I agree, whats more important is what mogreps shows, unfortunately, we don't have access to that in the public domain but of course, a finger in the air works every time.

 

It seems to be good enough for the METO to use along with MOGREPS and Mr Maue over the water seems to think it has performed creditable recently but hey what do they know compared to the resident experts.

Edited June 28, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

It seems to be good enough for the METO to use along with MOGREPS and Mr Maue over the water seems to think it has performed creditable recently but hey what do they know compared to the resident experts.

chill out knocker, it was a light hearted comment..jeez

[bluearmy]

Saturday continues to look to have the most potential re max temp in this spell. will depend on the flow strength and how much frontal activity exists at the time. However, I'm happy with my call re the July temp record.

[knocker]

chill out knocker, it was a light hearted comment..jeez

 

I was referring more to the original comment by Timmytour, with which you agreed, that appears to me to be dismissive rather than lighthearted.

Edited June 28, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Looking at the GFS punts re Temps, Wednesday shows to be the hottest day of the week with temps widely touching 30c. Storm potential is still looking excellent to this morning for the vast majority.. A very interesting week on the cards. There's still plenty of time for surface detail to change over the next day or two, So don't hang your hat on them just yet!

 

Edited June 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[NL]

The model thread in summer was such a peaceful place here on Net weather. Downgrades here upgrades there, its an evolving situation and one things for certain its going to get a lot warmer/hot. At least its not your normal scenario of 2-3 hot days then a thunderstorm or the relentless North westerlies. Some great weather to be had for us meteorological enthusiasts.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z is like a copy of the 18z with the spanish plume initially building northwards from Tuesday and then shunted to the east by Thursday before returning for an encore from the southeast on fri/sat. Temperatures at their highest hit 31-33c, factor in the very high humidity when looking at 27c shown for thursday and feeling short changed. Next week is turning hot and sultry from the south from the south coast to the northern tip of scotland with long sunny spells and an increasing chance of intense thunderstorms. Looking further ahead, by Sunday it looks fresher but that is not the end of the heat, through low res although the north of the UK returns to normal, the south has regular incursions of +15 850's.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Saturday continues to look to have the most potential re max temp in this spell. will depend on the flow strength and how much frontal activity exists at the time. However, I'm happy with my call re the July temp record.

Yes I think you're "no July record" prediction may be safe now. Wednesdays heat looks nailed on now - may sneak a 35C if all works out - after that, though, its a bit messy - Saturday may well get close to 35C again but it looks unlikely Friday will be hot enough to provide a platform for Saturday to be record breaking.

Looking further ahead, Sunday seems to be the breakdown day but I'd treat anything beyond Friday with caution really - Saturday could be the breakdown, or there may even be no breakdown at all.

[Woollymummy]

For years I have had quite a few random places listed on my phone Yahoo Weather app to compare weather with Oxford, including Ulan-Ude, San Francisco, Vienna, Minneapolis, Vaasa, Reykjavik, Oagadougou, etc

I usually marvel at the consistently fierce hot weather forecast for Oagadougou.

Well, this week, Oxford and Ouagadougou both have 34०C forecast. Too funny!

Edited June 28, 2015 by Woollymummy

[knocker]

Well now Weds or Sat. Of course Saturday has still to be resolved but it looks like it could be Tunbridge Wells on Sat. at 34.3C

Charts weatherbell

 

[William Grimsley]

Quite an interesting GFS 18z and 0z, they're both pretty similar up until about Friday, with the 60 being slightly hotter than the 18z but breaking the heatwave down slightly quicker but bringing more heat in over the week after.

 

What we musn't forget is that the NetWx-MR is bringing in some fabulous LI and CAPE values into the SW on Tuesday night with the possibility of some thunderstorms quite widely over western parts of the country. Also, this run as with many other previous runs brings in some more very high convection and this time also brings in a lot more precipitation with some heavy and torrential meaning a greater possibility of thunderstorms over a wider area of the western side of the country.

Well now Weds or Sat. Of course Saturday has still to be resolved but it looks like it could be Tunbridge Wells on Sat. at 34.3C

Charts weatherbell

May I ask where you get those charts from?

Edited June 28, 2015 by William Grimsley

[bluearmy]

Well now Weds or Sat. Of course Saturday has still to be resolved but it looks like it could be Tunbridge Wells on Sat. at 34.3C

Charts weatherbell

Uppers not the be all and end all knocks. However, I know you also have the T2's available which you can't post.

EDIT: note uppers 33.1 c in the Middle East on Saturday!! wont be humid though like nw Europe. I think the Low Countries have 100f+ on Saturday ECM op.

Edited June 28, 2015 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

Variations on the same theme really this morning, first pulse of heat on Wednesday, then a second pulse possible on Saturday but large uncertainty about this as displayed by the day 6 charts.

 

ECM

850s during Saturday afternoon are widely up to 22C across the South east and East Anglia, 32C predicted widely in this region with the heat index approach 40C considering the high humidity so this could be one oppressive day if this came off. (Predictions based on the rather crude data from weatherunderground)

 

UKMO

On the other hand the UKMO would break the pattern down during Saturday, so very warm instead of hot with thundery showers widespread.

 

GFS

A middle ground but still hot in the south east and very warm elsewhere.

 

GEM

Quite similar to the ECM solution, the 20C isotherm gets into the south east during the day.

 

So 3 models suggesting another hot day on Saturday with the UKMO not agreeing on this, all show the risk of thundery downpours developing or spread up from the south. Before then Wednesday looks the hottest day with Thursday and Friday still potentially hitting 30C in the south and remaining warm or very warm elsewhere with a mix of sunny spells and thundery showers at times.

Certainly hoping the ECM is right for the weekend, it could be a cracker if you can withstand the potential furnace on Saturday, I expect the storms produced would be spectacular. Worth noting that the ECM suggests that further very warm weather could quickly develop beyond the projected breakdown on Sunday given the favourable axis of the jet which is shown as another ridge is thrown north east from the Azores early in the following week.

Edited June 28, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[knocker]

Re your last sentence yes this is the case and looking at the Atlantic chart for the 7th it has the dominant Atlantic low, ridging Azores HP and a couple of depressions nipping out from the eastern seaboard. All ties in quite well with the 500mb anomaly.

[Summer Sun]

This mornings GFS ens for London is suggesting a long period of hot / very warm weather with the mean above averge through out

 

 

Not a great deal of rain for the south and SE either which is shown on the totals to July 8th on the below precip chart

 

[mushymanrob]

not so sure about the heat on saturday, its looking like the storms will cross saturday morning according to the gfs 00z (with the usual caveat that things/timings could change... but this is what the gfs is saying now)



thats bad news for me.... daughters getting married. (reception in a field.... long story not model related)

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows the initial northward surge of the spanish plume on Tuesday and the peak is reached on Wednesday, the plume is slowly shunted to the east on thurs/fri but the actual surface conditions will not change much, then the plume pushes back in from the southeast on Saturday with another scorcher before pushing away east by next Sunday with fresher conditions, however, beyond the end of next week it stays warm or very warm and largely fine in the south and more changeable but still pleasantly warm across northern UK. This is a great spell coming up nationwide, becoming very warm / hot and very humid with lots of sunshine but then scattered intense T-Storms breaking out, very uncomfortably humid nights with inner city areas, especially London, not dropping below 70F.

[Harsh Climate]

Looks like we can now bank wednesday as being a certainty for thunderstorms!

 

[knocker]

This morning's anomalies at day ten have a good agreement with the HP to the east and our old friend the upper trough to the west albeit with a slight difference with the orientation. Thus maintaining a SW flow over the UK sandwiched between the LP to the NW and HP to the SW and temps around average.

 

In the ext period they both tend to lose the trough and settle for a general swathe of HP across the Atlantic and a more zonal westerly flow with a hint of a SW component near the UK due to weak LP around Iceland. Temps around average but below in the northern half of the UK

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 28, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

This morning's anomalies at day ten have a good agreement with the HP to the east and our old friend the upper trough to the west albeit with a slight difference with the orientation. Thus maintaining a SW flow over the UK sandwiched between the LP to the NW and HP to the SW and temps around average.

 

In the ext period they both tend to lose the trough and settle for a general swathe of HP across the Atlantic and a more zonal westerly flow. Temps around average but below in the norther half of the UK

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

hi knocks - not drawn to the upper azores trough on the extended gefs?  thats the same feature that is driving this weeks heat ............