Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Milhouse]

The GFS looks to be seriously undercooking the maxes on Tuesday. These sort of uppers have delivered 30c+ in years gone by. Id say instead of the 25/26c that is being shown we will be seeing temps approaching 30c.

 

[Summer Sun]

Evening, Well the Atlantic has made the headlines today with a big turnaround from the models in the last 24 hrs. Yes the plume is still there but with the Atlantics extra push  its much less fierce, less exceptional temps and pushed out the way very quickly. All in all it could be a one day wonder for some, but perhaps eastern Britain could see three hot days. So a downgrade for the heatwave but with a more Atlantic influence its an  upgrade for thunderstorms...impossible to tell at this stage but with the atmosphere primed during next week with heat and unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, a  great ingredient for some huge thunderstorms, something Im looking forward too, perhaps the news headlines wont be the so much the heat next week but with some places getting flash flooding...Interesting.    

 

Erm, I don't think so I can 5 days where temperature get close to or above 30c for many parts

 

 

Where you've got "All in all it could be a one day wonder for some" from I have no idea because its not what the models are showing, what they are showing is at least 5 days of hot temperatures for wide parts of the the UK and the risk of some big thunderstorms.

[Daniel*]

Evening, Well the Atlantic has made the headlines today with a big turnaround from the models in the last 24 hrs. Yes the plume is still there but with the Atlantics extra push its much less fierce, less exceptional temps and pushed out the way very quickly. All in all it could be a one day wonder for some, but perhaps eastern Britain could see three hot days. So a downgrade for the heatwave but with a more Atlantic influence its an upgrade for thunderstorms...impossible to tell at this stage but with the atmosphere primed during next week with heat and unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, a great ingredient for some huge thunderstorms, something Im looking forward too, perhaps the news headlines wont be the so much the heat next week but with some places getting flash flooding...Interesting.

Wind up merchant without intention?

Heatwave conditions for the S/E of England cooler further north and west but warm to very warm here I do not see the Atlantic being on the agenda here, any possible breakdown is not worth the immediate attention at this stage. The evening runs confirm a hot spell is ahead for some.

Edited June 27, 2015 by Daniel*

[Frosty.]

Erm, I don't think so I can 5 days where temperature get close to or above 30c for many parts

 

 

Where you've got "All in all it could be a one day wonder for some" from I have no idea because its not what the models are showing, what they are showing is at least 5 days of hot temperatures for wide parts of the the UK and the risk of some big thunderstorms.

Gavin, he's avin a laff

[Milhouse]

Well the ECM 12z mean is outstanding. Following the midweek spell of heat we see winds tilting SE dragging up a second pulse of hot air up from France on Friday, and into Saturday. The 20C isotherm is just off the Kent coast on Saturday which, for the mean output 7 days out is quite something. The mean ends with LP to the NW and further warm/very warm air affecting the UK. Upper temps remaining above 10C for most of England and Wales at day 10.

 

[mushymanrob]

Evening, Well the Atlantic has made the headlines today with a big turnaround from the models in the last 24 hrs. Yes the plume is still there but with the Atlantics extra push  its much less fierce, less exceptional temps and pushed out the way very quickly. All in all it could be a one day wonder for some, but perhaps eastern Britain could see three hot days. So a downgrade for the heatwave but with a more Atlantic influence its an  upgrade for thunderstorms...impossible to tell at this stage but with the atmosphere primed during next week with heat and unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, a  great ingredient for some huge thunderstorms, something Im looking forward too, perhaps the news headlines wont be the so much the heat next week but with some places getting flash flooding...Interesting.    

Do you seriously believe that anybody except those who hate heat actually take any notice of you ridiculous posts? Sorry mods but this guys talking rubbish and is only out to try to wind up.

You've consistently dismissed the obvious heat but contradict yourself by wanting and focus on the thunderstorm potential that only exists because of the heatwave, the one you dismiss yet is set to be the strongest for nine years.

Ridiculous.

[William Grimsley]

An amazing ECM run as many others have spotted, all I am concerned about is that in the latest run it goes for uppers of less than 10°C especially over the western half of the UK as shown below by Sunday.

Surely, this would bring temperatures down to the high 10°C's to low 20°C's?

Edited June 27, 2015 by William Grimsley

[mhielte]

Do you seriously believe that anybody except those who hate heat actually take any notice of you ridiculous posts? Sorry mods but this guys talking rubbish and is only out to try to wind up.

You've consistently dismissed the obvious heat but contradict yourself by wanting and focus on the thunderstorm potential that only exists because of the heatwave, the one you dismiss yet is set to be the strongest for nine years.

Ridiculous.

I'm sure it's just for balance 

I hope so for his sanity 

An amazing ECM run as many others have spotted, all I am concerned about is that in the latest run it goes for uppers of less than 10°C especially over the western half of the UK as shown below by Sunday.

Surely, this would bring temperatures down to the high 10°C's to low 20°C's?

I think the uppers are less than that today and places have seen 25C

[mushymanrob]

An amazing ECM run as many others have spotted, all I am concerned about is that in the latest run it goes for uppers of less than 10°C especially over the western half of the UK as shown below by Sunday.

Surely, this would bring temperatures down to the high 10°C's to low 20°C's?

Dont assume that a 240 chart will verify. Even if it did it means nothing more then average which for july is as good as average gets.

[Summer Sun]

An amazing ECM run as many others have spotted, all I am concerned about is that in the latest run it goes for uppers of less than 10°C especially over the western half of the UK as shown below by Sunday.

Surely, this would bring temperatures down to the high 10°C's to low 20°C's?

 

Of course it changes on location but 27c was hit yesterday in the SE with the 850's no higher than 13

 

The day 10 mean could easily produce temps is the mid 20's given the right conditions

 

[Methuselah]

Come on peeps, everyone's entitled to their opinions; even if some of those opinions may appear a little difficult to justify...

 

So can we all cut out the personal stuff? Before major editing/deleting happens.

[William Grimsley]

Of course it changes on location but 27c was hit yesterday in the SE with the 850's no higher than 13

 

The day 10 mean could easily produce temps is the mid 20's given the right conditions

 

Interesting, I'm not so concerned about that now. Looks like we could have above 20°C pretty much every day this week and possibly next week, nice!

Edited June 27, 2015 by William Grimsley

[damianslaw]

Certainly major changes on the way, reminding me of those sudden arctic blasts we occasionally get in winter after lengthy mild periods, of course its a role reverse this time with hot southerlies blasting in after a generally lengthy period of cooler/average temps. For the north in particular a shock to the system, many places still haven't seen 20 degrees this year..

 

Don't want to sound pessimistic but I would favour a high pressure heatwave set up rather than the synoptical outlook we have, southerlies and plumes are tentative fragile affairs..

[ANYWEATHER]

Do you seriously believe that anybody except those who hate heat actually take any notice of you ridiculous posts? Sorry mods but this guys talking rubbish and is only out to try to wind up.

You've consistently dismissed the obvious heat but contradict yourself by wanting and focus on the thunderstorm potential that only exists because of the heatwave, the one you dismiss yet is set to be the strongest for nine years.

Ridiculous.

Hi Mushy. Im really sorry to upset you. Im just saying what the models are producing , Im not on any wind up mission but the models are definitely showing a different scenario to 24 hrs ago , take a breather from here for a while...Ive had enough ridicule from people on here lately for my thoughts....

[William Grimsley]

Certainly major changes on the way, reminding me of those sudden arctic blasts we occasionally get in winter after lengthy mild periods, of course its a role reverse this time with hot southerlies blasting in after a generally lengthy period of cooler/average temps. For the north in particular a shock to the system, many places still haven't seen 20 degrees this year..

 

Don't want to sound pessimistic but I would favour a high pressure heatwave set up rather than the synoptical outlook we have, southerlies and plumes are tentative fragile affairs..

I agree to a point, but seen as the charts have pretty much stayed static give or take a few runs especially with the GFS, I feel that there aren't going to be many if any major changes now we're only a couple of days away from the start of the heatwave.

Edited June 27, 2015 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Neutral just gone negative expected to go deep negative early mid July...if it doesn't flip as a western NAO then I expect normal west nw and near norm temps in July....no extended heatwave.

This post as well as many others is so delusional and so far from the truth, that this makes it not only frustrating for the observer of the current charts which suggest the exact opposite, but for the neutral and new viewers that visit the site regularly.

Low pressure near Iceland and high pressure to our south and east suggest that we are in a +ve NAO despite heights being slightly modest over Greenland.

[Captain Shortwave]

A lot of toing and froing in here, but the story looks the same once you take the variation of the operationals out of the way. The ensembles have pointed to a spell of very warm or hot weather starting from Tuesday with the likely timing of the breakdown to be around next Sunday. 30C could be reached on any day between Wednesday and Saturday which is a solid 4 days of hot weather, Tuesday could also scrape 30C in favoured spots if we are lucky.

So things to look out for;

1) Potential thundery developments next week

2) The potential for a hotter maximum occurring next Saturday if the hottest air does make it to the UK and doesn't get pushed into the continent.

3) The potential for any breakdown to be reduced in significance or even happen at all.

[Costa Del Fal]

Evening, Well the Atlantic has made the headlines today with a big turnaround from the models in the last 24 hrs. Yes the plume is still there but with the Atlantics extra push its much less fierce, less exceptional temps and pushed out the way very quickly. All in all it could be a one day wonder for some, but perhaps eastern Britain could see three hot days. So a downgrade for the heatwave but with a more Atlantic influence its an upgrade for thunderstorms...impossible to tell at this stage but with the atmosphere primed during next week with heat and unstable air moving in from the Atlantic, a great ingredient for some huge thunderstorms, something Im looking forward too, perhaps the news headlines wont be the so much the heat next week but with some places getting flash flooding...Interesting.

You must be looking at completely different models to me again.

Sure maybe 35/36c isn't in the cards anymore but anyone in the Midlands, East Anglian and the south especially but not exclusively looks pretty hot (27c above) from about Tuesday and most days till saturday. I admire your attempt to make things look more rosy for your colder weather preference but the Atlantic hasn't made big headlines today at all and I wouldn't agree this is pushed very quickly out of the way at all. This is still likely to be the most intense spell of heat for many since July 2006 IMO.

You need to accept your preferred weather is not happening for you in the coming week...

Edited June 27, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[ANYWEATHER]

You must be looking at completely different models to me again.

Sure maybe 35/36c isn't in the cards anymore but anyone in the Midlands, East Anglian and the south especially but not exclusively looks pretty hot (27c above) from about Tuesday and most days till saturday. I admire your attempt to make things look more rosy for your colder weather preference but the Atlantic hasn't made big headlines today at all and I wouldn't agree this is pushed very quickly out of the way at all. This is still likely to be the most intense spel of heat for many since July 2006 IMO.

You need to accept your preferred weather is not happening for you in the coming week...

Look I prefer heat and thunderstorms...What ever gave you that idea     

Edited June 27, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[dusk]

I'll be the first to admit that I'm new to NW and the various models like GEM / GFS / ECM and such like, but I like to think I've got a fairly decent handle on UKMO surface pressure charts as they've been - for a number of years - the first thing I look at when I get to the office of a morning.

 

For the last three days, it's been consistent. By Wed we have a LP West of Ireland, and a HP over the North Sea which - to me - means the hot and humid air from the continent will be pulled North over the UK. I fully expect heatwave conditions for at least two days, and with the Atlantic LP flinging fronts across us West to East (not to mention the trough forecasted on Wed on a line from Dorset to Staffordshire) I would expect fireworks in the West.

 

Of course, other opinions are available / your mileage may vary etc etc, but I'd prep the BBQ kit for Wed 

[knocker]

The ECM EPS mean going for the hottest day Wednesday before the heat slides away east although it's still warm.

Charts weatherbell

 

[mushymanrob]

Hi Mushy. Im really sorry to upset you. Im just saying what the models are producing , Im not on any wind up mission but the models are definitely showing a different scenario to 24 hrs ago , take a breather from here for a while...Ive had enough ridicule from people on here lately for my thoughts....

You havnt upset me, but your constant denial of what is patently obvious isnt doing yourself any favours. Thats why youre getting ridicule.

Theres going to be a hot spell, how long it lasts has never been certain, focusing on the runs that show it being short and ignoring the runs that suggest itll be longer makes you look like a denier, biased against what the data is mostly telling us.

[Polar Maritime]

Back to the Models please, Thanks

 

PM.

[summer blizzard]

Looking at all the 12z runs it looks like they all agree that it will all be over on Sunday. Friday probably the best day for the feel, hopefully the higher pressure will lower the humidity feel a bit. 

 

The fronts should be interesting on Wednesday night and saturday night, both look thundery.

 

[Geordiesnow]

Some minor changes from what I can see, there has been some eastward movement so unfortunately for Northern Ireland, its nearly getting to the point of what is the fuss about in terms of heat and the potential for the thundery low to make it presence felt has moved forward.

 

In terms of how far North and West the heat gets is still open to doubt and whether or not after the projected thundery low coming up from the South we see a re-load is a major uncertainty