Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JULY 1ST 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A hot SE flow over the UK will become replaced by a cooler and fresher SW flow behind a weakening thundery trough crossing East over the UK later today and tonight

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally warm or very warm weather in the South with a few thundery showers. Cooler and more changeable in the North and West spreading to some other areas at times.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a Northerly flowing Jet across the UK gradually veering to more of a SW to NE flow still in the vicinity of the UK next week.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a SE/NW spit over the next week or so with periods of very warm weather in the SE replaced on occasion by spells of thundery rain as incursions of cooler air repeatedly move down from the NW. A much more straightforward Summer changeable Atlantic pattern looks likely further to the NW with some rain at times but with drier and brighter spells too with this theme more extensively reaching the SE too by the end of the period.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run looks very simialr during the first week with the final hoorah of heat leaving the SE in about a weeks time as the changeable cooler air over the North and West reaches here too later. Then through the second week this run shows a resurgence of UK based High pressure with increasingly warm and sunny weather returning to all areas by the end of the period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters today show mixed messages ranging from a ridge towards Southern Britain from the SW with fine and dry conditions prevailing or more changeable Atlantic based weather on Westerly winds in association with low pressure to the North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a SE/NW split developing from the weekend following a thundery trough North across the UK on Friday. The current hot weather looks like dissolving for many in preference of cooler SW winds though the SE looks like hanging on to some very warm conditions for some considerable time.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support fresher air attemting to displace very warm and humid air across the UK over the coming 5 days. It succeeds briefly on the first attempt and perhaps more convincingly on the weekend attempt.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows very warm weather never far away from Southern Britain on this run with the North and West seeing fresher and cooler conditions. No widespread thundery activity is shown after this week but no doubt some would occur should temperatures remain high in the South. It's not until the end of the run that more unsettled and cooler air makes it all the way across the UK with rain at times from the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds very warm air close to the South through the next week with further spells of sunshine and the occasional thundery outbreak. Further North and West the Atlantic SW'lies will maintain charge with fresh and bright conditions with just occasional rain..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM today does show some success in getting the cooler air down to the South of Britain albeit next week before much success is achieved. So the South and East will see more warm and humid weather with the risk of thundery outbreaks before the cooler and more changeable conditions in the north and West from the weekend covers all of the UK by the end of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night continues to show slack pressure gradients across the UK with a Low pressure up to the Northwest and very warm air never far away from the South of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to generally maintain a Summer pattern across the UK with the best of the warmth and fine weather in the South and East though there are strong signals for a cool down even here in Week 2.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.1 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.6. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 84.7 pts with GFS at 82.0 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.9 over 45.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.3 pts to 25.8 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather continues to be held on a knife edge at the moment as the Atlantic cooler air remains locked in battle with hot continental air, common at this time of year. On most of this morning's output certainly as far as the North and West of the UK is concerned the battle is pretty weak as the Atlantic looks like being largely in control over the next few weeks with occasional rain and some brighter interludes in between. Further South and East the forecast is far less certain as the heat over Europe remains stubbornly persistent and wafts back across Southern and Eastern Britain at times over the next week only to be met with resistence by successive cold fronts moving up against this block and creating the risk of thundery downpours for these areas at times and fresher air to follow. With time on this morning's output it does appear that the Atlantic eventually wins through and gives rise to cooler and more changeable conditions over the second half of the period for all of the UK but there is some conflicting support for High pressure to re-establish with a return to fine and very warm weather UK wide later and with rather less humidity it may feel better. So all in all the models remain finely balanced and wouldnt be surprised to see the models to show further pushes of hot air to be shown to waft up from the SE over the coming days output well into next week. Whatever happens changes in the pattern look slow and undramatic but for thunder and lightning enthusiasts they could well be in for a treat in the coming days and further into the future if these push backs of heat from the SE are allowed to continue.

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday July 2nd 2015

[knocker]

Next week does look cooler and more unsettled according to the gfs/ecm 00z although the ecm does warm up for a time later next week into the mid 20's c across the south but for me its all about today, what a great start to july with temps widely into the high 20's to low 30's celsius and close to record high levels in the southeast with 35c 95f expected, enjoy today.

 

I am enjoying thanks Frosty. Currently temp 16C and a layer of Ac. It was warmer at 0300.

Edited July 1, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

The anomalies this morning are in the same ballpark at day ten with ridge over Greenland and a slight variation on the trough to the west. Thus continuing with the W/SW flow with LP to the NW and the Azores high away to the SW and temps alternating around the average.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited July 1, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

I am enjoying thanks Frosty. Currently temp 16C and a layer of Ac. It was warmer at 0300.

Glad you are enjoying it:)

Temps already 30.5c 87f in parts of the south and British rail are having problems, apparently it's the wrong kind of heat.

[i luv snow]

Glad you are enjoying it:)

Temps already 30.5c 87f in parts of the south and British rail are having problems, apparently it's the wrong kind of heat.

 

32.5oC at Heathrow!

[Frosty.]

32.5oC at Heathrow!

The way things are going, maybe somewhere in the southeast will reach 36c 97f, Heathrow could be the mega hot spot today!

Looking at the rest of this week, the models still show warm / very warm and occasionally humid conditions with sunny spells but with thundery showers around, London should reach 27c 81f tomorrow and low 20's c for most other areas. Just turned 33c 91f at Heathrow..wow

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Glad you are enjoying it:)

Temps already 30.5c 87f in parts of the south and British rail are having problems, apparently it's the wrong kind of heat.

It's the wrong kind of rails - welded as against fish-plated.  Welded rails can buckle in extreme heat, conversely they can snap in very low temperatures.

[Frosty.]

It's the wrong kind of rails - welded as against fish-plated.  Welded rails can buckle in extreme heat, conversely they can snap in very low temperatures.

In a few months it will be the wrong kind of leaves on the line.

Looking further ahead into next week, the north of the UK certainly looks much cooler and more unsettled but it could easily stay on the warm side further south with pulses of very warm tropical maritime / continental air.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to discussing the Models please. There is a Summer thread open for more general chat.

Thanks, PM.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[phil nw.]

looking at the anomaly charts and their changes over the past 3-4 days I would say that a 500mb flow from a SW'ly direction seems most likely in the 6-15 day period, see links below. Not identical by any means but all 3 suggest this type of flow. How changeable, how warm etc, not totally clear but no total wash out and no extended heat wave is about as far as one can punt from them.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

Yep it looks like a more typical setup next week John with the heat eroded from the west by Sunday night.

A glance at the GFS/ECM mean 850 charts for day 6 show this change established.

 

along with the 2mtr temp graphs from the 00z GFS run for various locations north to south

 

Still this is a lovely spell for those who enjoy true hot Summer conditions-a little too much for me though unless by a pool with a cold drink.

The outlook after this week though is pretty reasonable i should think with many areas seeing decent but more typical UK Summer weather although as ever the warmest and driest weather would be found away from the nw quadrant in this pattern.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z has undercooked today's max in the southeast, since it's already heading for 34/35c at Heathrow, the highest temp today has now been adjusted upwards to 36c 97f in parts of SE England which puts us very close to a record high temperature..in Paris they expect 40c today which is very dangerous heat, hope they have better rail tracks than we have. Lol

Edited July 1, 2015 by Frosty.

[Guest]

The Gfs 6z has undercooked today's max in the southeast, since it's already heading for 34/35c at Heathrow, the highest temp today has now been adjusted upwards to 36c 97f in parts of SE England which puts us very close to a record high temperature..in Paris they expect 40c today which is very dangerous heat, hope they have better rail tracks than we have. Lol

 

But thats for 3pm and temps at Heathrow (down to 31.5) already started to fall back so probably not as undercooked as suggested. 36C and any potential records are no out of the question with increasing cloud.

[Frosty.]

But thats for 3pm and temps at Heathrow (down to 31.5) already started to fall back so probably not as undercooked as suggested. 36C and any potential records are no out of the question with increasing cloud.

It was 33c 91f at Heathrow at 10.30 / 11.00am and the beeb forecast has adjusted the max temp to 36c today whether it's at Heathrow or another part of south east England.

Edit..northolt in nw London has already had 34.5c 94f today, I think 36c will be reached somewhere in the SE, maybe a smidge higher!

Edited July 1, 2015 by Frosty.

[matty007]

Why is it whenever we get a really warm day we get a load of cloud and wind with it. Went out an hour ago and it felt extremely warm in the sun, albeit the wind. Now it's just clouded over and am getting 25mph gusts. Happens everytime. 

 

If the cloud had stayed away we'd be in for some record temps, not now. 

Edited July 1, 2015 by matty007

[phil nw.]

Let's keep to Model Discussion please guys- there are other threads for views on current weather,temps and possible storms.

 

Ta.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a lot of warm / very warm weather across at least the south of the UK, the rest of this week including the weekend and early next week show temps into the 80's F at times with some very humid days / nights and an ongoing chance of thundery weather, we are not going to see this very summery pattern brushed aside although today is the peak of the heat. There is a less warm phase through the middle of next week but temps are still comfortably into the low 20's celsius and next week could become more unsettled for a time, especially in the north but the 6z shows high pressure then building across the south.

Edited July 1, 2015 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

Well done frosty official record broken and just shy of 37c.

[Godber 1]

Heathrow 36.7c new july record!

Well done frosty official record broken and just shy of 37c.

beat me to it.

[bluearmy]

You were sweating there for a while (so to speak)

I am now

36c @ heathrow

I am now

36c @ heathrow

My Info out of date and I am WRONG WRONG WRONG !!

[Swave Snow]

Hopefully the Navgem was on to something last week

[Frosty.]

Heathrow could be the mega hot spot today!

Cheers guys, what a day!..and the good news is we have plenty of warm / v warm weather showing on the 6z for the rest of this week, the weekend and early next week, at least for the south of the UK.

[Steve C]

I am now

36c @ heathrow

My Info out of date and I am WRONG WRONG WRONG !!

I don't think many of us, in our heart of hearts, thought it'd happen, especially today. I like notable weather events, so happy.

[Man With Beard]

I am now

36c @ heathrow

My Info out of date and I am WRONG WRONG WRONG !!

Blows the theory of needing a build up of warmth over several days, doesn't it! In all honesty, I thought it would be Saturday that could break the record, not today. Which brings us swiftly back to the models - the peak of Saturdays heat now likely to go through too early in the day to trouble the record books, according to GEFS.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=6&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

[Nick L]

There have been two requests for model discussion only in this thread, and some of you are continuing to blatantly ignore this. Please stop ruining the thread for others.

[mushymanrob]

Blows the theory of needing a build up of warmth over several days, doesn't it!

 

yep, this came about a mobile synoptic chart, the thunderstorms that grew here over derby at 1300 hours took just 3 hours to get to newcastle. lying in the pool watching the high clouds, they were really shifting. unfortunately, this mobile pattern looks set to continue into the heart of july, but from the southwest.

i have to give huge credit to the gfs and ecm, who predicted this a week or so ago.