Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[mhielte]

GFS gives the potential for 30c 5 days running next week

 

 

Forget downgrades....we're getting upgrades!!!

 

It all goes bang on Sunday 

[Summer Sun]

Stunning update from GEM the heat just keeps on building

 

[shaky]

Stunning update from GEM the heat just keeps on building

 

lol!!imagine the navgem!!maybe hotter!!

[cheese]

It all goes bang on Sunday 

But still shows high 20s in eastern England on Monday!

 

 

It's the gift that keeps on giving.

[nick sussex]

Quite a big change from the UKMO compared to yesterdays more progressive outputs. The pattern now seems to be edging west after a trend eastwards which is better news for heat lovers.

 

The Holy Grail of the 20c 850 getting into the UK looks a bit more likely but not nailed on just yet. If the heat does verify then this could throw an added variable into Wimbledon with some difficult playing conditions especially on the show courts during Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Ironically it could be heat stopped play rather than the usual rain!

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z is an upgrade on previous runs, I get the feeling the upcoming heatwave is going to be more intense than first thought and perhaps longer lasting, it's a full on spanish plume event and definitely not a glancing blow..really pleasing 12z output.

[Nouska]

The current MJO running from phase 6 to 7 doesn't seem a good fit for our current  500mb anomaly

 

With the forecast speed, amplitude and lateness in June, we could perhaps envision a phase seven >1 for July.

 

  

 

A much better fit for the modelling in front of us.

[William Grimsley]

I wonder if this might end up being like August 2003? It's getting that way.

[shaky]

The ukmo 12z is an upgrade on previous runs, I get the feeling the upcoming heatwave is going to be more intense than first thought and perhaps longer lasting, it's a full on spanish plume event and definitely not a glancing blow..really pleasing 12z output.

ukmo looks hotter than the gfs at 144 hours:0!!scary!!!

[nick sussex]

Meteo France certainly think this will be noteworthy for the time of year and think temps will be the highest for 60 years for the start of July.

 

WEATHER. France crushed the heat next week

 

A heat wave will befall the France next week with heat waves in many regions, a phenomenon that was not observed at this time of year for over 60 years, announced Météo-France .

Meteo France Certainly think this will be noteworthy for the time of year and think time will be for 60 years The Highest for the start of July.

Tuesday, in the Southwest, the Massif Central and the Lyonnais, mercury will oscillate between 34 and 38 degrees.Paris should read "at least 35 degrees" in midweek, says Daloz.

"At the height of the heat range, it will be between 33 and 36 degrees Wednesday in the North," while the "southern regions will oscillate between 33 and 39 degrees." "Spikes" at 40 degrees East or 38 in the North are expected.

France is not the only country affected by this heat wave, caused by a vast depression of the Atlantic that traces of warm air masses from Spain.

Besides the Iberian peninsula, it also befall Belgium and ascend to the south of England, according to Météo-France. It should be 33 or 34 degrees in London.

 

Just the ECM to come out now so we'll wait to see if that's also edged the pattern further west.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Polar Maritime
Copy'd SS's translation over.

[Frosty.]

ukmo looks hotter than the gfs at 144 hours:0!!scary!!!

Indeed, fantastic spell coming up, a full on spanish plume..what could be better?

[Summer Sun]

NAVGEM not giving up with its extremely high 2m temps

 

 

12z left, 06z right

 

[Methuselah]

Meteo France certainly think this will be noteworthy for the time of year and think temps will be the highest for 60 years for the start of July.

 

WEATHER. France crushed the heat next week

 

A heat wave will befall the France next week with heat waves in many regions, a phenomenon that was not observed at this time of year for over 60 years, announced Météo-France .

Meteo France Certainly think this will be noteworthy for the time of year and think time will be for 60 years The Highest for the start of July.

Tuesday, in the Southwest, the Massif Central and the Lyonnais, mercury will oscillate between 34 and 38 degrees.Paris should read "at least 35 degrees" in midweek, says Daloz.

"At the height of the heat range, it will be between 33 and 36 degrees Wednesday in the North," while the "southern regions will oscillate between 33 and 39 degrees." "Spikes" at 40 degrees East or 38 in the North are expected.

France is not the only country affected by this heat wave, caused by a vast depression of the Atlantic that traces of warm air masses from Spain.

Besides the Iberian peninsula, it also befall Belgium and ascend to the south of England, according to Météo-France. It should be 33 or 34 degrees in London.

 

Just the ECM to come out now so we'll wait to see if that's also edged the pattern further west.

Not too far west, I hope? Otherwise it'll all get wasted in mid-Atlantic!

NAVGEM not giving up with its extremely high 2m temps

 

 

12z left, 06z right

 

Let's play...Spot the UK!

[nick sussex]

Thanks SS I should have google translated it, although as you can see some of the translation is a bit weird!

 

There is a concern over pollution so I hope people bear this in mind, its not just the heat but the mix of that with the high temps that can cause a lot of problems.

[mushymanrob]

The GEFS 6z mean is looking fantastic next week..and beyond, becoming very warm across all parts of the UK and hot across the south and east as a spanish plume extends northwards into the uk. There is talk of very hot conditions developing in the south / southeast with low to mid 30's celsius. With all the strong sunshine, heat and humidity, there will be an increasing chance of thundery showers.

We have waited patiently for this, we have had to endure a lot of cool unsettled atlantic dross in the last few months but the wait is almost over.

Not sure about the strong sunshine mate, plumes are usually bright, milky skies, as opposed to clear blue and strong sunshine..

But isnt it great that im nit picking over such a minor point! Lol

[Summer Sun]

Thanks SS I should have google translated it, although as you can see some of the translation is a bit weird!

 

There is a concern over pollution so I hope people bear this in mind, its not just the heat but the mix of that with the high temps that can cause a lot of problems.

 

Yes google translate is prone to some dogy translation at times but they are working on improving it

 

It gives the gist anyway

Edited June 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

Not sure about the strong sunshine mate, plumes are usually bright, milky skies, as opposed to clear blue and strong sunshine..

But isnt it great that im nit picking over such a minor point! Lol

Indeed. But the last, and only time, I suffered from asthma was in 2003, up in the Sneck. So, please peeps, spare a thought for the the really vulnerable, eh?   

Yes google translate is prone to some dogy translation at times but they are working on improving it

 

It gives the gist anyway

Aye...Very 'dogy'!

[Woollymummy]

Can I ask a question about the jetstream? - here are a couple of snapshots for 2nd July, one from Wednesday and one from today, and they both look very similar, does that mean the likelihood is the modeling is more reliable? I am looking forward to the extreme weather for the novelty and the thunderstorms, not so much the prospect of taking teenagers to a safari park on the hottest day of the year....

[pip22]

I'm wondering if there's any poor air quantity imported from the continent next week. That would effect our breathing during the heatwave which is isn't good for people with asthma.

Edited June 26, 2015 by pip22

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z short ensembles - the op run was well within the pack and far from the hottest run. I suspect the July record would fall if the hottest members came to pass

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=12&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

I give it another 36 hours, and if nothings changed model wise, we'll be talking about a heatwave in the same category as 1990 / 1995 / 2003 / 2006

Edit: added link

Edited June 26, 2015 by rjbw

[Summer Sun]

I'm wondering if there's any poor air quantity imported from the continent next week. That would effect our breathing during the heatwave which is isn't good for people with asthma.

 

The beeb are warning of poor air quailty next week

 

NAVGEM is consistent if nothing else

 

Edited June 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

GFS 12Z short ensembles - the op run was well within the pack and far from the hottest run. I suspect the July record would fall if the hottest members came to pass

I give it another 36 hours, and if nothings changed model wise, we'll be talking about a heatwave in the same category as 1990 / 1995 / 2003 / 2006

It would have to last longer then currently expected to do that.

But theres time and this wont be the only heatwave this summer im sure.

[Methuselah]

The beeb are warning of poor air quailty next week

 

NAVGEM is consistent if nothing else

 

Free aqualungs on the NHS? For asthmatics, things don't look too good. So, if you have any asthmatics in your family - look after them!

Edited June 26, 2015 by Ed Stone

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS 12Z short ensembles - the op run was well within the pack and far from the hottest run. I suspect the July record would fall if the hottest members came to pass

I give it another 36 hours, and if nothings changed model wise, we'll be talking about a heatwave in the same category as 1990 / 1995 / 2003 / 2006

 

I've taken a look myself, the majority of the ensembles are bunched around the 15/16C 850s figure for here which suggests that some of these runs showing 20C nudging this far N maybe slightly optimistic. We'll see, but how often do we see something so potentially noteworthy affect the UK. I'd love to see some of these sizzling charts come to pass though because I love extremes and I certainly love thunder and lightning!

[Woollymummy]

At least this time round I don't have to give birth to and care for my newborn baby, 2006 was hot!

Interesting to see Scotland warms up quickly on this chart, first time for ages they haven't been left out of things while we get nice warm southern weather!