Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Chris K]

While still decent I'm not liking the trends in the last few runs, it's clear again on the this morning GFS 00z run heights won't build over the continent anywhere near enough to prevent the Atlantic spilling in. looks more like a messy breakdown into late next week assuming things don't get punted east which in reality still seems the most logical solution. Still a couple of days do seem likely to potentially produce the highest temos since July 2006. I think to achieve that we have the 1st August 2013 to beat??

I think the main change on the GFS has been a move from hot and mostly settled to hot and more potential of thunderstorms moving up from the South from Iberia & France. The trend for the Atlantic low to eventually push in seemed always on the cards, but hey we are talking a week away with plenty of changes likely to come before then.

The only thing I am wary of is the proximity and depth if the Low to the W and what it will mean for our surface weather.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Chris K

[mushymanrob]

Evening Weather fans, , The Plume next week is out of the reliable timeframe, but the thing what excites me is the potential for some really big thunderstorms on what is shown on tonights  models. 

 

.... so the plume is out of the reliable timeframe but the thunderstorm potential isnt?....

i note the EC32 update knocker, but atm theres no sign of the azores high returning and becoming influential on the noaa charts just yet.

in fact its looking pretty good, with not a deal of change in the general synoptic pattern. plenty of warm summery weather especially in the southeast.

Edited June 26, 2015 by mushymanrob

[shaky]

Brilliant models this morning!!plume backed west again!ukmo has retreated further west aswell!!!mid thirties looks a real possibility by Wednesday next week!!

[knocker]

.... so the plume is out of the reliable timeframe but the thunderstorm potential isnt?....

i note the EC32 update knocker, but atm theres no sign of the azores high returning and becoming influential on the noaa charts just yet.

chart1.gif chart2.gif

in fact its looking pretty good, with not a deal of change in the general synoptic pattern. plenty of warm summery weather especially in the southeast.

 

Actually I don't think there is a huge difference Mushy. The EC anomaly at T312 has a pretty flat Atlantic with a weak trough in the east and HP NW Europe and the eastern seaboard which gives a broad zonal westerly flow.  Given the NOAA 8-14 is a five day mean and although it is still showing slight troughing in the west, I would have thought it was edging towards the flat Atlantic scenario. By  influential at this stage I meant although situated to the SW the Azores HP is controlling the flow.  Oh the joys of model watching..

Edited June 26, 2015 by knocker

[Harsh Climate]

GFS brings the hotter air in a day early (by tuesday) with a risk of thunderstorms a day early two. By thursday 33c over eastern england, so the record would be very close to getting broken in this area! If the chart comes to fruition that is

 

Phenomenal charts!

Edited June 26, 2015 by Harsh Climate

[bluearmy]

GFS brings the hotter air in a day early (by tuesday) with a risk of thunderstorms a day early two. By thursday 33c over eastern england, so the record would be very close to getting broken in this area! If the chart comes to fruition that is

 

Phenomenal charts!

What record HC?

plumes > 20c are very rare in the UK. it is obviously not sustainable for several days so we look to those runs which shorten the plume to 24/36 hours max as being more likely to be showing a verifiable solution.

ECM fi looks progressive though the sinking of the scuero high anomoly south west to become a euro high anomoly is the favoured extended ens option so a more standard zonal flow north of the UK should be the eventual outcome.

[Guest]

ECM is a much more progressive run, again the model gives us a pretty ordinary weekend over the 4/5 July. Seems the weather has something against delivering the goods over weekends this summer. All in all despite a few hot days I think an earlier breakdown to Atlantic weather seems more likely as early as the 2nd July but more likely the 4th. From experience id say the chances of the heat building back after Thursday next are already reducing. As ever more runs are required. We need higher pressure to build over the low countries.

[Scorcher]

ECM is a much more progressive run, again the model gives us a pretty ordinary weekend over the 4/5 July. Seems the weather has something against delivering the goods over weekends this summer. All in all despite a few hot days I think an earlier breakdown to Atlantic weather seems more likely as early as the 2nd July but more likely the 4th. From experience id say the chances of the heat building back after Thursday next are already reducing. As ever more runs are required. We need higher pressure to build over the low countries.

 

You'd think we'd just had very average charts reading your posts. Luckily I know otherwise- there is a lot of outstanding summer weather being shown on the charts this morning- I don't quite understand why you are choosing to ignore it. If you're not satisfied with these morning's runs, you never will be in this country! Fantastic to see 32C appearing on the GFS surface temp charts in NW England- doesn't happen too often!

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON FRIDAY JUNE 26TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening cold front will move East over the UK today with a ridge of High pressure building across the UK tonight and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming very warm next week with some thundery showers especially in the South and East. Cooler in the NW.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow expected to blow East across the UK over the coming days up to and including the weekend. The flow then ridges North over Britain at the same time as troughing South over the Atlantic setting up a Northerly moving jet just to the West of the UK later next week before a return to a stronger more SW to NE flow across the UK at the end of the period.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows several more days of changeable conditions with occasional rain from troughs moving East interspersed by dry and fine weather. Then pressure builds from the South and SE with some very warm air in tow, the extent of this on this run is restricted towards the South and East where some very warm and humid air will develop. Troughs though moving up against this heat from the West will trigger some thundery weather at times in the South and East and some rain elsewhere but the overall longer term theme remains for quite a bit of warm and sunny weather in the South and East with any rain most likely still towards the North and West

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows Europe becoming very warm and hot with the UK always lying on the Western boundary of this with Atlantic cooler air battling it's way against this at times, without much success. This means the East and South will often be very warm or hot from next week with occasional thunderstorms while the West sees somewhat cooler air with thundery rain more extensive at times. Later in the run the heat ebbs away to a fresher but slacker Westerly flow.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show High pressure largely dominant across or near the UK in 14 days time with just a handful of members showing anything particularly more unsettled with rain at times.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows high temperatures across the South and East next week as the Spanish plume affecting mainland Europe affects the South and SE of England too at times. Further North and West sees cooler air maintained with some troughing supporting the risk of some thundery rain or showers in places close to the heat with much mist and murk near Western and Southern coasts at times.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support conditions warming up next week as Southerly winds are drawn North from Spain. Humidities do look like being high with the risk of thunder moving North by Day 5.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM shows warm weather too developing next week as High pressure over Europe drives very warm and humid air North across the UK, principally the East and SE but to some degree elsewhere too. The air will often be de-stabilised by thundery Low pressure which will produce occasionally heavy downpours in the East and South before the end of the run finds cooler air having extended East across all of the UK.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows very warm and humid conditions across the UK from early next week with the heat proving stubborn to shift and possibly giving rise to some marked thunderstorms at times as heat and humidity from the West combine with the East still holding on to the heat 1 week from now.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning completes the set this morning also showing things becoming very warm and humid next week with the risk of thundery showers very much apparent as thundery Low pressure from quite early in the period attacks the heat from the SW. This lasts several days before a more meaningful push of cooler Atlantic air wins through late in the period with fresher conditions for all by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the West and NW of the UK, slack in nature and maintaining very warm air close to the SW with occasional thundery pulses likely to push NE across the SE at times with the freshest conditions towards the NW.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends continue to show a chance of a plume developing close to or just to the East of the UK next week.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.5 pts followed by UKMO at 95.4 pts and GFS at 95.2. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.3 pts with GFS at 82.8 pts and UKMO at 81.6 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 48.5 over 46.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains ahead of GFS at 31.5 pts to 24.5 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS There remains a question mark on the extent of a Spanish Plume's extent and longevity across the UK next week. The one certainty is that the weather is going to warm up next week for almost all areas but most markedly so across the SE and East. Some very hot conditions could see temperatures top 30-32C across these areas if sunshine allows but there is a lot of support for humidity to quickly claim the dry and sunny Continental heat back to the other side of the channel and with a quick move over the UK towards instability and de-stabilisation in the middle and upper atmosphere across Central and Western areas meaning the risk of thundery rain and storms quickly becomes likely in places from midweek. Whether this means a quick departure of the plume is unclear with some ebbing and flowing of it's push East and back West again likely for some time. Longer term the models do seem to nudge the hot air even further away over Europe and others seep it away altogether with a more changeable and cooler Westerly flow likely by then but there is more than some evidence that warm and summery weather will never lie far away to the East and SE over Europe and chances of a re-run of the current plume as we move through July have got to be high under the developing synoptic pattern especially in the South and East of the UK. So summarising something for everyone is shown this morning with heat and sunshine promoting the risk of some rather nasty storms in places and the possibility of cooler and fresher air returning with time.

 

Next update from 08:00 Saturday June 27th 2015

[knocker]

ECM is a much more progressive run, again the model gives us a pretty ordinary weekend over the 4/5 July. Seems the weather has something against delivering the goods over weekends this summer. All in all despite a few hot days I think an earlier breakdown to Atlantic weather seems more likely as early as the 2nd July but more likely the 4th. From experience id say the chances of the heat building back after Thursday next are already reducing. As ever more runs are required. We need higher pressure to build over the low countries.

 

Would agree with that as it is running the lows emanating off the eastern seaboard around the Azores HP. I think the scenario from hereon in will be to push the Azores HP further north. Of course a week is a long time in meteorology.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 26, 2015 by knocker

[radiohead]

0Z NAVGEM is outrageous. T850 temperatures up to 27. 2m temperartures up to 42.

 

[Summer Sun]

What record HC?

plumes > 20c are very rare in the UK. it is obviously not sustainable for several days so we look to those runs which shorten the plume to 24/36 hours max as being more likely to be showing a verifiable solution.

ECM fi looks progressive though the sinking of the scuero high anomoly south west to become a euro high anomoly is the favoured extended ens option so a more standard zonal flow north of the UK should be the eventual outcome.

 

The July record which is 36.5c

 

Certainly looks under threat

 

[Man With Beard]

Looking at GFS ensembles this morning:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=306&y=141&run=0&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0

Next weeks plume now has cast iron agreement, with all 21 members getting above 18.7. How long the major heat lasts is questionable - some members go for a 36 hour burst, while about half of the members sustain the heat until 4/5 July - some with unbroken high temperatures for 5 consecutive days.

No members go for a return to the very extreme heat after about 6th July (except for the op), so something a little more normal is likely from D11 onwards, but having said that, around half the ens members return to 850 levels above 15C, so conditions could continue significantly warmer than average at times even after next weeks heatwave.

The information above is for London - for the same of balance, here's an ensemble chart for South Yorkshire:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=130&y=15

Not the extreme heat of the south but fairly good agreement on hot weather for the middle of next week, and I'd expect 30C could be reached here too. A small possibility that the main part of the plume won't get here, though, and a much higher chance that second waves of heat on 3/4/5 July won't significantly affect northern areas - though still well above average temps relative to this part of the world

[sunnijim]

Lets hope that for once an 'extreme' comes off in the UK. Whether it be winter or summer any extreme of weather type progged ends up as no more than a wet fart in recent years..or to put i more elaquently benighn conditions.

Glass half full given the eye candy charts we have on offer would be a few days of potential record breaking temperatures with thunderstorms to follow of biblical ferocity.

Glass half empty, One day of real heat but nothing out of the ordinary,33c in the capital swept away by 'scattered thundery showers' on Friday next week.

[Summer Sun]

0Z NAVGEM is outrageous. T850 temperatures up to 27. 2m temperartures up to 42.

 

 

The 14:00 chart goes one step further

 

 

2m temp of 43 over Norfolk

[Man With Beard]

The 14:00 chart goes one step further

 

 

2m temp of 43 over Norfolk

These are fun to look at, but for the sake of the casual observer, these are not to be taken seriously. I don't think any credible chart suggests 40C could be reached. GFS temps, though far from infallible, are a much better guide.

[knocker]

Although basically similar the GEFS and ECM anomalies differ a little on the orientation of the tidge to the east and the trough. The difference would mean a varying influence of the low to the NW but it would seem neither would stop perturbations winging in from the eastern seaboard.

http://purtubations

[Summer Sun]

Next Thursday still looks like the peak of the heat I wouldn't rule out somewhere in the SE hitting 35c

 

 

Even on Monday temperatures are rising mid to high 20's in the south

 

 

Tuesday and Wednesday sees the heat extending north and around 30c in the south

 

 

Some very muggy nights later next week as well with the 'lows' around 24c for some

 

Edited June 26, 2015 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

Actually I don't think there is a huge difference Mushy. The EC anomaly at T312 has a pretty flat Atlantic with a weak trough in the east and HP NW Europe and the eastern seaboard which gives a broad zonal westerly flow.  Given the NOAA 8-14 is a five day mean and although it is still showing slight troughing in the west, I would have thought it was edging towards the flat Atlantic scenario. By  influential at this stage I meant although situated to the SW the Azores HP is controlling the flow.  Oh the joys of model watching..

 

fair play knocks

not a bad outlook then, and id be very surprised if the coming heatwave will be the only hot spell we get.

[Guest]

06Z was a cooler run than 00Z & draws extent of high 850s southwards & therefore the heat down somewhat on Thursday , with maxes 33-34C only in the south east.. The axis of the low to west is such that *relatively* cooler air to south undercut into Biscay more. Then the incursion of hot air into SE again at w/e is not so pronounced, the very warm air is all gone by the end of Saturday. I can see that this could very easily still be 'downgraded' to a 1-2 day quite hot spell in the SE & east by runs this w/e & early next week.
 

[Alexis]

On the other hand, the 06z has a bubble of high pressure pushing back from the SE, delaying the push of Atlantic air. 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Scandi high becoming a blocking feature, forcing the jet up and over it from our S.

This sustains the warmth we will have in place, and low and behold, we have another reload showing in Fantasy Island!

Good thing is, the pattern that is to become the precursor to the heat is setting up now, well within the reliable time frame.

[Chris K]

06Z was a cooler run than 00Z & draws extent of high 850s southwards & therefore the heat down somewhat on Thursday , with maxes 33-34C only in the south east.. The axis of the low to west is such that *relatively* cooler air to south undercut into Biscay more. Then the incursion of hot air into SE again at w/e is not so pronounced, the very warm air is all gone by the end of Saturday. I can see that this could very easily still be 'downgraded' to a 1-2 day quite hot spell in the SE & east by runs this w/e & early next week.

 

 

It could well do, but I am not sure what people really expect? In a heatwave from this sort of setup I would expect the SE to see the highest temperatures.... A good portion of England could hit 30c though if this was to verify? I won't be turning my nose up at that! If the potential for 30-34c it isn't hot enough for people, better get booking yourself somewhere across the continent!

 

We have had persistent westerly/NW influence air flows for much of the Sping and June so far. With a trough located quite close to our West, it does look like mixing "cooler" air in eventually but even this is likely to change. Before then, the 6z shows temps of low twenties in the North and reaching high twenties/low thirties from Tues through until the weekend for much of England. The classic 3-5 days of heat then storms scenario.

 

Whether we see repeating plumes of hot weather pushing North is something else. As I stated this morning we need to get this hot weather to actually arrive first, because being 4+ days away means it can still get reduced further like any other time. You only have to look at previous occurences to see that.

Edited June 26, 2015 by Chris K

[legritter]

Charts and data today does support a dramatic warm up next week .

But the weather could become balanced on a knife edge with realy hot temp 30c plus being at a premium for some .but with a nudge of the pattern 32 could be achieved .

Its going to be interesting watching this event unfold and already the media are latching onto next week making headline news ,but we have been there before and at this range many options still possible ,certainly Model watching will be interesting ,so lets be thankfull we have some interesting weather on the horizon ,sit back relax ,get the drinks on ice enjoy 

[Summer Sun]

NAVGEM 06z showing 2m temps at 38 on July 1st