Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Polar Maritime]

As per latest GFS run, The turn of the Month continues with an ever growing trend to for a very warm/hot spell for the UK especially the South. With temps possibly hitting 30c in some parts, Very interesting watching the models toy with the location and extent of the high over the past few days, And im sure the next few will be to! As usual the 'Devil will be in the detail'. Lets see what the ECMWF throws at us..

[A.J]

no major drama, but a couple of posts have been moved over to the model ramp/moan thread......best suited to that particular thread...cheers

[Captain Shortwave]

So this is the GFS mean chart for a weeks time

 

That really is quite something. If this Scandi block does develop with all the potential heat trapped beneath it then July could kick off in real style. 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks amazing! At least somewhere is going to see a decent spell of proper summer weather I reckon (by that I mean 28+).

Unsure about the breakdown potential at this stage (reading between the lines) but obviously we're far enough out for things to change considerably.

Bet the red-top chip-paper decorators over at the Express are knuckle deep in scaremongering headline ideas for next week...

"100 Days Of FIRE!"

"Half-melted OAPs Expected To Cause GRIDLOCK On M25!"

"Mercury demand SOARS as Heatwave Forces Families To Buy Improved Thermometers!"

Edited June 24, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[mushymanrob]

Ill refer you to the charts that have been posted today showing a large build up of heat over france and spain. With that in place its not beyond reason that it might just get advected here IF the synoptic pattern builds to allow it..... And there are signes, tentetive, that that might happen. the (cliche time) building blocks for a hot evolution for the uk are very close to being in place, very close indeed....

And todays ops highlight the foolishness of ignoring the bigger picture. Sometimes, just sometimes, i get it right! Lol.

However, im still not overly convinced that we will get a heatwave as currently predicted. Going off the noaa anoms the ops seem to be overcooking the magnitude of the expected high. So ill enjoy the stunning charts, but i expect a downgrade.

[Frosty.]

The Gem is back on track following its 00z wobble, that's 3 stonking gem runs out of 4, add the amazing ecm 00z and the stunning gfs 12z and really I'm starting to believe we could be in for a heatwave starting next week..90 F + next week?..let's hope so and let's also hope the Ecm 12z is a gem of a run.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Interesting evolution of the GEFs last three 12z anomalies.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 24, 2015 by knocker

[Milhouse]

The GEM has been throwing in some extreme heat of late and the 12z tonight is no exception. I did think it was out on a limb with its prediction but its support is growing.

 

Im a bit puzzled how NW France can get into the mid 30s, but it cant translate into anything as special for the UK. Not to be taken seriously at this stage but just wondered.

 

[Summer Sun]

The GEM has been throwing in some extreme heat of late and the 12z tonight is no exception. I did think it was out on a limb with its prediction but its support is growing.

 

Im a bit puzzled how NW France can get into the mid 30s, but it cant translate into anything as special for the UK. Not to be taken seriously at this stage but just wondered.

 

 

Sea temperatures maybe taking the temps down a bit as it crosses the channel?

[Man With Beard]

Amazing GFS run so far, what I love is the way the HP cells link up with each other later on to perform a stronger cell of high pressure, and any low pressure is far away from Western Europe

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Can't see the upper trough getting so far south (I.e. Iberia), not in July surely? Such a big change from yesterday's GFS 12z, makes you wonder if it has lost the plot.

[Milhouse]

As expected, the heat is building on the ECM so far

 

[summer blizzard]

Oh wow, 12z GFS is extremely good.. Plus the pressure's higher and so's the wind so we should get less humidity..

 

 

Reminds me of the last third of May 12..

 

[Costa Del Fal]

And a stunning ECM 12z to complete the pack with the 20c isotherm saying hello to the sour next week but very warm uppers everywhere. If the 15c isotherm is in place then always a decent shout of 30c.

However still a long way to go and the sudden switch from yesterday makes me think it could easily switch back. Nonetheless I would say there is now fairly good confidence of at least next Monday and Especially Tuesday being warm of some sorts.

[Guest]

Sea temperatures maybe taking the temps down a bit as it crosses the channel?

 

Yup, the sea is only 12-14C along the south coast at the moment, significant modification of the airmass would take place in the lowest couple of hundred metres of the atmosphere. Have to say given that and the fact GFS has almost a howling gale from the south east at times I'm surprised the highest temps arent modeled in the Midlands, around Cheltenham etc and not along the south coast.

[Summer Sun]

Another stunning update from ECM with the heat really building for early July

 

 

We end the run with a new are of high pressure moving not quite the heat of the previous days but still very warm

 

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Sensational Ecm 12z guys, next week turns into a scorcher. Exciting times ahead, BBQ weather, and as Alan partridge would say, lovely stuff.

Edited June 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Good chance that 30+ will be seen in the UK next week. The 20c 850 does get over the Channel on the ECM, this would be a rarity and noteworthy if this verifies.

 

The ECM would also likely give a further opportunity to tap into some more heat post day 10 but that's a long way off.

[Methuselah]

I think the ECM has a more southerly wind, too; a better direction than an east-south-easterly, straight off the North Sea.

[Polar Maritime]

The ECMWF also builds the heat for the turn of the Month.

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[A.J]

good lord, a warm/hot run from the ECM Det.....heat building early next week with the 21C T850's (yes, you read that right) encroaching into the south west and southern districts, leading to some hot conditions...as per the GFS it develops a south easterly feed which should keep the majority hot and dry but again the risk of thunderstorms especially to the SW from low pressure around Biscay which drifts north and fills....more of a thundery risk IMO than than 12z GFS....the hottest air than pulls away into Benelux with the azores high ridging in from the west continuing the warm/very warm weather, and the T240 charts show this has every chance of linking up with the scandi block to give the potential of a sustained spell of summery weather .....

 

...A few charts to illustrate.. 

T850 charts for europe showing WAA building and encroaching towards and over the UK

 

 

 

A close up of 21c T850's over southern most districts

 

 

 

 

 

H500 & pressure charts showing the evolution of the potential hot spell and a possible way forwards for the azores hi/scandi block link up which could give a sustained spell of summery weather

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by ajpoolshark
getting the goddamn editor to post charts in correct order...lol

[ANYWEATHER]

Is this a Wild Goose Chase???

[nick sussex]

Likely hot spot if the wind direction is more se.

 

Gravesend

 

The former might be a surprise to some but this location holds the current record closely followed by Heathrow. Gravesend has a positive factor for heat with the mini fohn effect north of the Downs.

 

Hotspot with a more east/se flow:

 

Heathrow

 

Anywhere North of the Downs in southern England could hit 30+. Not sure the 35c can be hit, generally you need a few bites of the cherry to get to that level.

 

Overall the models after going a bit lukewarm on this heat have backtracked by holding that low further west and moving in a favourable direction to drag the heat north out of Spain and France.

 

Given that the models at T120hrs have a favourable set up even if that low tracks more ene rather than ne it would be difficult to avoid some hot weather.

 

So my odds

 

30+ 80%

33+ 50%

35+ 30%

Edited June 24, 2015 by nick sussex

[Captain Shortwave]

So this is the day 5 chart from the ECM

At this timeframe the ECM should be pretty close to the mark, and to be frank the evolution from here is going in only one direction.

If the models cement this trend for the next 24 hours then we could be on the verge of the hottest spell since July 2013, it will certainly be a change from the rather mundane conditions we have seen so far this summer.

[A.J]

So then, just to add to my previous post and of other members, here's a summary of the models.........

 

   

 

 

Edited June 24, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[bluearmy]

Whilst it seems unlikely that the current modelling could induce any records in England, the ECM at day 8 has uppers around +18c ne Scotland in the lee of the mountains with a brisk s breeze. Is that a recipe for a record breaking 33c?

Edited June 24, 2015 by bluearmy