Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Methuselah]

Peeps: can we please stop talking about snow? It's June!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah, but opinion based on what?

 

What's this fascination with everything having to be backed up by a page of technical justification for opinions just recently? You don't need to automatically back up every thought or opinion with pretty pictures and/or postgraduate level analysis to state a trend in modelling or even just a hunch. No-one is going to be misled by anything that is said as the post in question is usually preceded by 'in my opinion' or 'I think'.

 

In my opinion, if people want visual aids then they can just look at the output themselves rather than continually being spoonfed and wasting bandwidth on here. When I get in from work I often look at the models FIRST then come on here to read the interpretations of them! That should be fine....it's relatively easy to distinguish between the more methodical posts and the general commentary on the overall medium range synoptic situation

Edited June 21, 2015 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

Peeps: can we please stop talking about snow? It's June!

Yes but the cfs is showing it

[Polar Maritime]

Back to what the models are showing please.

Thanks, PM.

[carinthian]

The current El Nino period is certainly providing Vancouver and British Columbia with a unusual weather pattern for such a maritime location. Last May was one of the driest on record and so far this month only 2 days of any rainfall recorded. The strong high pressure ridge is to develop again with heat peaking at 30c in the city in 10 days time, about 10c above seasonal normal. Interior parts of BC could reach 35c. The same weather pattern prevails over much of NW states of America as well. As a result of this phenomenon, similar increased heat and drought is being forecast long term for this summers peak in Iberia and possibly much of France. So an increasingly hot spell in SW Europe become more evident. Whether the British Isles can tap into this is another thing, but the SE of England again looks the favourite location.

c

[Captain Shortwave]

The current El Nino period is certainly providing Vancouver and British Columbia with a unusual weather pattern for such a maritime location. Last May was one of the driest on record and so far this month only 2 days of any rainfall recorded. The strong high pressure ridge is to develop again with heat peaking at 30c in the city in 10 days time, about 10c above seasonal normal. Interior parts of BC could reach 35c. The same weather pattern prevails over much of NW states of America as well. As a result of this phenomenon, similar increased heat and drought is being forecast long term for this summers peak in Iberia and possibly much of France. So an increasingly hot spell in SW Europe become more evident. Whether the British Isles can tap into this is another thing, but the SE of England again looks the favourite location.

c

I don't think I have seen the level of heat potentially being predicted to our south for a long time, okay we get the 20C isotherm over Spain regularly but by the end of the ECM run we see 850s approaching 30C over the central interior of Spain with the 20C isotherm engulfing most of Italy, France and Switzerland. 

100F possible in many locations with temperatures peaking into the low to mid 40s Celsius in the Spanish interior. It is really something if that came off, that said if the day 10 chart did come off we would have a different concern..

I am no expert but I don't think we would be seeing a band of patchy rain from that......   

 

I am going to be blunt, I do get the feeling that we could get something big occurring over the UK around the turn of the month, be it the first significant heatwave since 2006 or a plume event that would blow last years event out of the water. Something feels right here personally and to be honest when Spain and France go into the furnace, rarely does the UK escape with getting at least a whiff of it.

Edited June 21, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows a lot of fine and pleasantly warm weather to come during the next 7-10 days, especially further south and then it hots up in the south, could be 30 celsius + in the southeast with a hot and sultry, thundery looking T+240 chart. Like I have said before, I think we have a good chance of a widespread warm up through week 2...it's great to see the 564 dam line / + 15 T850 hPA encroaching into the UK and I hope this is what we can look forward to seeing a lot more of during July and August.

[Winter Cold]

 

I am going to be blunt, I do get the feeling that we could get something big occurring over the UK around the turn of the month, be it the first significant heatwave since 2006 or a plume event that would blow last years event out of the water. Something feels right here personally and to be honest when Spain and France go into the furnace, rarely does the UK escape with getting at least a whiff of it.

 

Yes I think you could be right CS. Something is brewing for sure, its mostly instinct as you say but you can somehow just tell cant you.....

 

 

GEFS giving mean 850s of around +10c for South Yorkshire for the entire first week of July for example. Its been a LONG time im sure since that has been shown for around here:

 

[Nouska]

I don't think I have seen the level of heat potentially being predicted to our south for a long time, okay we get the 20C isotherm over Spain regularly but by the end of the ECM run we see 850s approaching 30C over the central interior of Spain with the 20C isotherm engulfing most of Italy, France and Switzerland. 

100F possible in many locations with temperatures peaking into the low to mid 40s Celsius in the Spanish interior. It is really something if that came off, that said if the day 10 chart did come off we would have a different concern..

I am no expert but I don't think we would be seeing a band of patchy rain from that......   

 

I am going to be blunt, I do get the feeling that we could get something big occurring over the UK around the turn of the month, be it the first significant heatwave since 2006 or a plume event that would blow last years event out of the water. Something feels right here personally and to be honest when Spain and France go into the furnace, rarely does the UK escape with getting at least a whiff of it.

 

The ECM has the 25 to 30 isotherm over my location and a good portion of southern France - it never reached that in the August 2003 heatwave.

 

 

 

I said some time ago that I was concerned about excessive heat as the PDO had a very warm winter profile, just as in 2003. We have managed to break heat records in the last three months, I suspect July will too.

[Man With Beard]

_{GFS Ens just gets hotter and hotter for Europe next week, and possibly for some in the UK too:}

 

 

One of the most remarkable summer ensembles I've ever seen - the following link is for the coast of Kent - 13 of the 21 members have 850s of 18C or more at some time during the run: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?ext=1&x=348.22998046875&y=151.86000061035156

 

Op runs tonight agree with the Euro furnace but undecided about the implications for the UK:

 

 

_{Will be interesting to see ECM mean in a few minutes time, this morning's run was not quite as overwhelming as tonight's GFS, though still very warm}

Edited June 21, 2015 by rjbw

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening folks, I find it quite amusing that some posters on here are going for heatwave conditions somewhere down the line, Please stop misleading people., there is no heatwave on the horizon.!  If you look at the projected model output with in T+168 low pressure in the Atlantic is the driver of our weather, so that will pump up some warm air at times across the nation but also some rainbands will push across the uk  which will be hard to predict. Lets say it will be unsettled in the North, Changeable in the South.....

[ANYWEATHER]

The current El Nino period is certainly providing Vancouver and British Columbia with a unusual weather pattern for such a maritime location. Last May was one of the driest on record and so far this month only 2 days of any rainfall recorded. The strong high pressure ridge is to develop again with heat peaking at 30c in the city in 10 days time, about 10c above seasonal normal. Interior parts of BC could reach 35c. The same weather pattern prevails over much of NW states of America as well. As a result of this phenomenon, similar increased heat and drought is being forecast long term for this summers peak in Iberia and possibly much of France. So an increasingly hot spell in SW Europe become more evident. Whether the British Isles can tap into this is another thing, but the SE of England again looks the favourite location.

c

30 plus in the Okanagan is not that unusual for June in this part of BC Canada

[mushymanrob]

What's this fascination with everything having to be backed up by a page of technical justification for opinions just recently? You don't need to automatically back up every thought or opinion with pretty pictures and/or postgraduate level analysis to state a trend in modelling or even just a hunch. No-one is going to be misled by anything that is said as the post in question is usually preceded by 'in my opinion' or 'I think'.

 

In my opinion, if people want visual aids then they can just look at the output themselves rather than continually being spoonfed and wasting bandwidth on here. When I get in from work I often look at the models FIRST then come on here to read the interpretations of them! That should be fine....it's relatively easy to distinguish between the more methodical posts and the general commentary on the overall medium range synoptic situation

It isnt a recent thing, its been ongoing since i joined ten years ago, requests by admin, mods, senior forecasters, more seasoned and ordinary members, to support their pov with charts or data so others can understand why they hold the opinions theydo. It adds to understanding and helps others learn.

I thought unsupported hunches or opinions were best suited to the ramps thread and not the model discussion thread.

I note tonights ecm is still very close to producing something rather hot, as heat continues to build over spain and france....

[ANYWEATHER]

It isnt a recent thing, its been ongoing since i joined ten years ago, requests by admin, mods, senior forecasters, more seasoned and ordinary members, to support their pov with charts or data so others can understand why they hold the opinions theydo. It adds to understanding and helps others learn.

I thought unsupported hunches or opinions were best suited to the ramps thread and not the model discussion thread.

I note tonights ecm is still very close to producing something rather hot, as heat continues to build over spain and france....

So please produce some charts........

[Methuselah]

30 plus in the Okanagan is not that unusual for June in this part of BC Canada

Evesham's in BC?

[mushymanrob]

Evening folks, I find it quite amusing that some posters on here are going for heatwave conditions somewhere down the line, Please stop misleading people., there is no heatwave on the horizon.! If you look at the projected model output with in T+168 low pressure in the Atlantic is the driver of our weather, so that will pump up some warm air at times across the nation but also some rainbands will push across the uk which will be hard to predict. Lets say it will be unsettled in the North, Changeable in the South.....

That is misleading!!!! No ones said there is a heatwave on the horizon but theres a POSSIBILITY of one as the charts show considerable heat building over france and spain, and the synoptic charts DO allow for a hot evolution, its not a complete no no, but a realistic possibility. On tablet so i cant post charts (lol, the irony) but view the ecm and gfs by t240, fi? Yes but the noaa 8-14 day anomaly supports pressure rise over southern/central europe which strongly supports the expected heat build.

Ontablet so cant!!

Edited June 21, 2015 by mushymanrob

[ANYWEATHER]

That is misleading!!!! No ones said there is a heatwave on the horizon but theres a POSSIBILITY of one as the charts show considerable heat building over france and spain, and the synoptic charts DO allow for a hot evolution, its not a complete no no, but a realistic possibility. On tablet so i cant post charts (lol, the irony) but view the ecm and gfs by t240, fi? Yes but the noaa 8-14 day anomaly supports pressure rise over southern/central europe which strongly supports the expected heat build.

Ontablet so cant!!

Yes you are right...possibly of an heat wave at some point in Summer,    

[mushymanrob]

Yes you are right...possibly of an heat wave at some point in Summer,    

Didnt say that.

Ill refer you to the charts that have been posted today showing a large build up of heat over france and spain. With that in place its not beyond reason that it might just get advected here IF the synoptic pattern builds to allow it..... And there are signes, tentetive, that that might happen.

So its not just a blind guess that sometime this summer it might get hot, as you mockingly suggest, the (cliche time) building blocks for a hot evolution for the uk are very close to being in place, very close indeed....

[Nick L]

Alright, let's get things back on topic and cut out the antagonistic posts (and that goes for everyone here).

[ANYWEATHER]

Didnt say that.

Ill refer you to the charts that have been posted today showing a large build up of heat over france and spain. With that in place its not beyond reason that it might just get advected here IF the synoptic pattern builds to allow it..... And there are signes, tentetive, that that might happen.

So its not just a blind guess that sometime this summer it might get hot, as you mockingly suggest, the (cliche time) building blocks for a hot evolution for the uk are very close to being in place, very close indeed....

Mushy why don't you provide charts?

[summer blizzard]

Chances are that we will get a nationwide 30C spell at some simply by virtue of the fact it is summer and it happens every summer.

 

That being said, this evolution looks very slack and i imagine it's therefore hard to model. 

 

Euro goes for a trough, GFS goes for a trough, GEM goes for a ridge. 

 

Reminds me of July 10..

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Good ensemble agreement for a significant heat block to develop to our south as we move through the next week to 10 days, the mean 850s reach double figures in week 2 across most of England and Wales (ECM/GFS and GEM suites). That of course means little at moment as that is a long way away though a heatwave developing over France, Spain and Italy looks likely.

Now how do we get the heat over the UK, well this is where the model output over the next couple of days will be fun, crucially will the rather smooth longwave pattern portrayed by the models and hence the NW/SE split in fortunes overall prevail or will we start to see a cut off feature begin to appear between the Azores and Portugal? If the latter happen then I would expect the models to start pushing the heat further north as the jet becomes increasingly fragmented and slow moving and hence the Euro ridge is allows to push further north and hence advect the hot air towards the UK properly as opposed to glancing blows (summer blizzard's 2010 example is a perfect example of the latter).

I would be shocked that we didn't see an operational run push the 20C isotherm across the south of the UK at some point over the coming couple of days, the pattern looks primed for it, we only need a trigger.

 

Anyway before then the weather looks usable and indeed rather warm over the coming week before we reach the potential impasse in fortunes at the end of the month.

Edited June 21, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

Mushy why don't you provide charts?

As i said twice on the previous reply.... I cant because im on my tablet.

[Nigerian Prince]

 

I would be shocked that we didn't see an operational run push the 20C isotherm across the south of the UK at some point over the coming couple of days, the pattern looks primed for it, we only need a trigger.

 

Anyway before then the weather looks usable and indeed rather warm over the coming week before we reach the potential impasse in fortunes at the end of the month.

I have saved the chart for the 1st  of July2015 ,come the 1st of July at 10 days away, maybe we will  all be in  for a shock , for type of weather we actually see.

[Cloud 10]

Here we are again at day 10 with ensemble height anomalies forecast to our East/South-East setting up a possible plume scenario.

 

ecm..  gfs..

 

 

Lets hope those anomalies verify this time instead of ending up over Greenland/Iceland!