Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[049balt]

Has it been mentioned that the North Atlantic  sea temp. is almost two degrees below normal for the time of year, this anomaly has impacted on recent temps. which have been fine in sunshine but cool otherwise.

[mushymanrob]

Hey, westerly is a cool wind direction in the Summer, ECM 12Z in particular shows this end of next week.

No it isnt, its muggy so feels warmer then it is. Today was an example.

[J10]

Latest Glastonbury blog now out here -> https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4893-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-7/

 

For me I would much prefer winds from a NW direction rather than a SW direction  the NW flow tends to be sunnier due to the sheltered location on the south coast, and at least for here, warmer than the SE flow. As an example 19c and sunny here Sunday / Monday under NW flow 16c and overcast/misty here today under a SW flow.

 

Of course a hot easterly from the continent wouldn't go amiss either.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi Guys and Girls....Short term a lot of usable weather to be had in the next couple of days , but looking at both gfs and ecm  it looks like the Uk is entering a period of unsettled weather.......    

[Summer Sun]

If you want to straw clutch then JMA is your model tonight

 

 

Not an especially warm high, but at least it would be dry

[William of Walworth]

I'd bank that, given the less benign looking options for next week currently more likely on the other operationals. But JMA is surely a minority/more unlikely evolution?? than others.

[Mark Parsons]

surely this ex tropical storm coming out of the states as eluded to by Louise Lear tonight on BBC 10 day forecast will be throwing the computers in their output as to how things pan out?

[knocker]

surely this ex tropical storm coming out of the states as eluded to by Louise Lear tonight on BBC 10 day forecast will be throwing the computers in their output as to how things pan out?

 

Yup

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 6h6 hours ago

New GFS operational run showing strong indications that remants of TS #Bill to kick off a -NAO response @WSI_Energy

Edited June 17, 2015 by knocker

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Yup

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 6h6 hours ago

New GFS operational run showing strong indications that remants of TS #Bill to kick off a -NAO response @WSI_Energy

Same thing happened with Bertha last year too. She put the spanner in the works to stop the 3 month hatrick of good weather! Will be interesting to see how the models handle and deal with this. I'm expecting some massive flips now and again 70-90hrs onwards. 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS unsettled through to day 9..

 

[knocker]

A quick glance at the GEFS anomaly this morning vis Friday the 26th indicates old Bill keeps open the Atlantic door he appears to have greatly influenced. The HP Greenland, low NE Canada, trough north Sea and the de-amplification of the Azores HP. With the jet, perforce, running out of N. America via the Great Lakes the Atlantic train leaves the station, albeit a slow stop start one. Thus remaining unsettled over the UK as the ops the same time also indicates. The latter is of course bound to change in the interim.

EDIT

I note the ECM runs the depression in on Saturday 24 hours later.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 18, 2015 by knocker

[William of Walworth]

Those anomolies above look truly grim for later next week. Might there be any hope of slightly more benign changes as we get further into next week? Haven't really seen much of the 00z output yet. Thanks.

 

</Somerset mudbath fear>

Same thing happened with Bertha last year too. She put the spanner in the works to stop the 3 month hatrick of good weather! Will be interesting to see how the models handle and deal with this. I'm expecting some massive flips now and again 70-90hrs onwards. 

Really?

Edited June 18, 2015 by William of Walworth

[knocker]

Things are long way from clear at this distance regarding any detail so far too early to become unduly pessimistic. I agree not looking brilliant at the moment but I'm sure J10 will have his finger on the pulse re latest thinking.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO this morning shows some showers early next week then during Tuesday in the south and maybe more areas on Wednesday it slowly settles down

 

Edited June 18, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 18TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lies across the UK today from the SW with a somewhat more unstable airflow developing over Northern Britain later today and tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow making the UK it's home for the reliable future as it travels West to East or NW to SE across us in association with a trough to the North or NE. Then in week 2 the orientation of the flow shifts to more of a SW to NE flow across us as Low pressure transfers into the Atlantic towards the West or NW of Britain.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today shows a slow decline of High pressure to the SW across the UK as weak showery troughs push South across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. A Westerly flow will blow across the UK next week with occasional rain principally but not exclusively over the North as further troughs push through. Then in Week 2 the pattern backs West and allows winds to back SW across the UK to encourage warm and humid conditions to affect the South and East of the UK at least while rain at times continues to be a risk towards the North and West.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run shows just small and subtle differences to the operational run with the second week showing more of a North/South split with rain at times across the North with the South staying dry and fine for much of the time in association with High pressure never far away to the South. 

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters all show the likelihood that winds will be blowing from between West and North in two weeks time with no record breakingly high temperatures likely as a result and while a fair amount of dry weather will be experienced most towards the SW troughs and Low pressure will run East or SE across the North and east of the UK at times giving the risk of some rain or showers especially in the North and East.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a showery situation developing across the UK over the weekend and Monday as a showery trough moves SE across the UK before things settle down again in the South by Tuesday.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show slowly deteriorating conditions across the UK later in the weekend and start to next week as showery troughs in more unstable air drifts slowly South and East across the UK.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM also shows a period of more unstable conditions across the UK over the weekend and start to next week as a showery NNW flow sets up with some heavy showers across the North and East in particular. The pattern remains more changeable thereafter though still with a lot of dry weather especially in the South with Westerly winds carrying occasional outbreaks of rain across the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM holds things more set fair across the South early next week than some of the other output restricting the most showery conditions towards the North and maintaining this weak North/South split in the weather for the remainder of next week with the greatest risk of showers maintained in the North with the best chance of staying dry likely across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is showing deteriorating conditions next week as pressure leaks away slowly to the South to allow more and more unstable air to invade deeper and deeper into the UK through the period. So the risk of showers will increase later in the weekend in the South as well as the North with all areas at risk of rain or showers at times next week as more of an unstable Westerly flow takes hold.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows pressure having leaked away somewhat in the next week with an increased risk of rain or showers as troughs and lower pressure reside in a slack Westerly flow across the UK at that point.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem to reflect slightly more unsettled weather developing across the UK with some rain or showers extending from the North into the South too at times.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 97.0 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.8 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.6 pts with GFS at 83.4 pts and UKMO at 83.2 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.3 over 44.3. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 31.1 pts to 19.6 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS I am not quite so encouraged by the outputs this morning as it increasingly looks like the efforts of High pressure to move into a more favourable position for sustained UK wide warmth look dead in the water today as all models show some decline in domination of the High to the SW in the coming days with this decline maintained for some while thereafter. The Jet Stream is partly to blame again as it remains doggedly too far South across the UK and although not desperately strong it has sufficient power to prevent any ridging across the UK and in fact strengthens it's resolve in this morning's output in assisting more unstable or unsettled conditions to move down across the UK at times from later in the weekend and possibly much of next week too. Changes will not be dramatic though especially in the South and it may be some while before any widespread showery activity arrives here while the North and East always look to be at greatest risk on a daily basis. In my individual accounts from the models above I have not mentioned temperature levels and while no desperately cold weather looks likely with winds blowing across the UK from a cool Atlantic or even more from the North at times it is never going to be remarkably warm and after the reasonable temperatures in the South over recent days I think we will witness a fall back in temperatures nationwide in the coming week as the unstable cold pools of air drifts down across the UK. There is still some indication that High pressure may build back towards the South later in the period returning warm and settled weather here but this is a long way out and subject to moderation or expansion over up and coming ouputs. However, looking optimistically as a whole there is no particularly unpleasant weather on the horizon and while most gardeners and growers will welcome some showers holidaymakers and sun worshippers might of preferred a somewhat better set of output than what is on offer this morning.   

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday June 19th 2015

[knocker]

Looking at the ECM ext anomalies they don't indicate ant great enthusiasm for building the Azores HP to the SW but more trough mid Atlantic with ridging over the UK with the whole lot sliding east. Now that scenario wouldn't be too bad if HP set up in central Europe. I had a dream......................

[Nouska]

Just having a look at the 06Z GFS and see we have another very extreme plume showing in the low-res section. These plume events have been very cyclical this year and resulted in max temperature records being broken in April, May and June. it is a long way away but I'm more confident than usual of seeing this verify.

 

Temperature graph for Agen for last three months - courtesy of Weather Online.  

 

Snapshot from GFS at +324 hours.     

 

Anybody have any thoughts on the repeating cycle or is it just random chance?

[legritter]

Looking at todays charts and as others have pointed out no heatwave but certainly some usefull weather around .

even early next week things are uncertain but south looking more likely to see anything like summer .

then looking further ahead low pressure mid atlantic and a possible rise of pressure across europe , if the two can become favourably situated we could see some real summer weather .

But more runs needed and as usual time will tell ,perfect day today here lets grab it and enjoy .cheers 

[summer blizzard]

6z out to day 10 has the Atlantic too strong to really do anything more than produce a transient dry day ridge.

 

GEM0z largely the same. 

 

Euro is probably the worst of the bunch this morning. 

 

[William of Walworth]

UKMO seems least keen to me to bring the deeper/more trough-influenced weather further South next week? Other models appear more unsettled more widely. 

 

I'm still only on 00z runs though.

UKMO this morning shows some showers early next week then during Tuesday in the south and maybe more areas on Wednesday it slowly settles down

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Those anomolies above look truly grim for later next week. Might there be any hope of slightly more benign changes as we get further into next week? Haven't really seen much of the 00z output yet. Thanks.

</Somerset mudbath fear>

Really?

Yes really, as is always the case with trying to forecast the progress of a tropical storm and it's influence on the jet.

Could be a maker or a breaker of the summer in the meantime.

Edited June 18, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Summer Sun]

I think until the exact details of what will be ex tropical storm Bill are resolved the models will continue to struggle for next week as ever its all down to the influence it may or may not have on the jet stream

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS has been excellent over the past week reg the push of Heights over Greenland for around the 21st. And the 6z continues this theme, With a weak Low sitting over the UK pushing bands of showers possibly merging to give longer spells of rain in places as they cross the country, Drawing a Northerly type flow as the Low exits East. Thereafter into wk2 a moist Westerly Atlantic flow takes over driving fronts N/E across the UK, Giving further rain for many parts.

Towards the end of the run there's hint's that a plume of sorts could push in from the South, With temps hitting 30c for parts of the S/E. All a long way off, But worth keeping an eye on as we move into the new Month.

Edited June 18, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows high pressure building north from the continent later in low res and then becoming centred to the east / southeast of the UK with increasingly very warm / hot conditions and gradually more humid with a risk of T-Storms, the end of June and early July would be fantastic if this occurs. In the meantime, the models indicate a mixture of sharp showers and lengthy dry spells with warm sunshine.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z is a generally changeable run with some fine and pleasantly warm spells of sunshine but with cooler and showery weather at times and occasionally more unsettled with longer spells of rain, some of it heavy and thundery, however, I am quite optimistic we will have something similar to the 6z at the end of June and start of July, mainly because the met office update today mentioned a chance of widespread settled weather at the end of this month.