Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Captain Shortwave]

All of the models trying to suggest that a Euro high could develop at the end of next weekend into the following weekend with the potential to draw up some very warm air from the south/south west. Worth keeping an eye on as this is the type of event which is certainly possible once you shift the alignment of the jet to a more sw/ne trajectory.

Still a long way out but all the models are suggesting this on the 00z suite so it is something to watch out for.

As for next week as a whole, well people better hope the rain on Monday verifies because in the south it looks like the only shot at meaningful rain next week at the moment.

[knocker]

I think given the choice the Glastonbury folk would settle for this mornings ECM run.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z doesn't look bad next week, especially for the south and east, there is a moderate pressure rise with increasingly fine and pleasantly warm conditions and another pressure rise for the south / southeast at the end of next week when it also becomes very warm for a time...it's no washout, even across the northwest.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

GFS, GEM, UKMO and Euro all try make a little more of the midweek transient ridge which slows the approach of next weekends low and causes a range of outcomes. GFS has a short build of pressure, GEM hangs onto a ridge extending over the south however the Euro has low pressure winning out. 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a decent window of largely fine and pleasantly warm weather across most of England and Wales for much of next week with broken clouds and good spells of sunshine after a very cool and rainy monday with temperatures then recovering into the low 20's celsius and heading towards mid 20's c further southeast. The north and west, especially the northwest of the UK looks generally unsettled and relatively cooler with a fine and warmer day here and there but the southeast of the BI, as you would expect, has the best of the weather with plenty of dry and rather warm conditions being more influenced by continental high pressure, still with a risk of sharp showers at times and the occasional longer spell of rain.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looks like the models are starting to get in line for next week a wet day for the south especially on Monday then EX TS Bill parks its self out in the Atlantic with only slow progress towards Iceland and high pressure close by for the UK

 

 

Whilst parts of Scotland would remain prone to some rain for the rest of the UK it would be the odd shower here and there

Edited June 19, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

A good part of next week looks fine and warm according to both the UKMO and GFS

UKMO

 

The GFS predicting temperatures widely in the low to mid twenties on Wednesday and Thursday so a decent week ahead potentially though with rain likely at both ends (Monday and Friday).

Edited June 19, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Milhouse]

A good part of next week looks fine and warm according to both the UKMO and GFS

UKMO

 

The GFS predicting temperatures widely in the low to mid twenties on Wednesday and Thursday so a decent week ahead potentially though with rain likely at both ends (Monday and Friday).

 

Even the rain on Friday is debatable. For instance the UKMO would give most areas a dry day on Friday and cap off a pretty decent week given what has been previously shown.

 

[knocker]

After next weekend the GEFS anomaly starts building a ridge NE Canada and a weakish one over the UK with a trough mid Atlantic backing the flow over the UK with temps beginning to warm a tad. It continues this theme into the ext period, a scenario also indicated by the latest EC32, bringing the UK under a slack area of HP centred to the S/SE. So next week and the week after, minus a couple of poor days, not looking at all bad taking the broad picture.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 19, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

After a cool unsettled start to next week, the Ecm 12z shows an improvement with pressure rising and temperatures rising too, becoming largely fine and pleasantly warm with good sunny spells and light winds, at least across the southern half of the UK and especially further south / southeast but still with an ongoing risk of a few sharp and thundery showers at times. The northwest of the BI looks generally cooler with less sunshine and more in the way of rain and showers which has been the story of the spring and summer so far.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

A good part of next week looks fine and warm according to both the UKMO and GFS

UKMO

 

The GFS predicting temperatures widely in the low to mid twenties on Wednesday and Thursday so a decent week ahead potentially though with rain likely at both ends (Monday and Friday).

Yes I would put my neck out here and say a fine, warm spell from Tuesday onwards is favourite here, at least for a few days. Anyone for a hot, thundery breakdown next weekend?

[bluearmy]

It's interesting that just as the modelling begins to look more promising in the mid to longer term, Exeter's update is the most miserable I've read for quite a while.

Edited June 19, 2015 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

After an unseasonably cool and unsettled start to next week, the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a warming trend and less unsettled too, at least for the south and east with the south of England into the mid 20's celsius range later next week and into the following week.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Frosty.

[knocker]

It's interesting that just as the modelling begins to look more promising in the mid to longer term, Exeter's update is the most miserable I've read for quite a while.

 

Yes it seems to me looking at the end of the ext period with the ECM that the height rises in central Europe are pretty weak and the upper trough to the west predominates. So taking a punt vis the longer period I suspect we are going to end up in a familiar position of a trough to the NW and the Azores HP ridging from the SW giving the N/S split.

[mushymanrob]

some decent looking charts with pretty colours on and suggest its going to be 'not bad' ... the fax charts suggest itll be rather cloudy, with light rain.

[bluearmy]

Looks to me like the mid Atlantic trough will become the driver of systems headed our way for a while rather than area further northwest of there. The lack of ridging to our west means these systems are headed ne rather than East. That means a nw/se split generally but the less settled periods not in the ascendancy so quite a decent outlook. Warm in general and potentially hot where the Azores ridge gets pumped ne and pulls up a s feed. The trend to build heights to our se is a step change which adds to the nw/se trend.

I can't discount the chance that the trough will settle closer to the UK in which case, the se will probably be the only area to see a decent period. However, at the moment, I don't see us ending up in the wrong place in the pattern. perhaps Exeter's 15 dayer will change back in tone today.

EDIT: yesterday's duty forecaster will approve of the 00z ECM op run!

Edited June 20, 2015 by bluearmy

[knocker]

Ryan Maue â€@RyanMaue 9h9 hours ago

Tropical Storm Bill still trackable for another 5-days as it merges with another Low in North Atlantic. Long life.

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

It seems to be one of those situations where the ridge gets in place over Europe and the UK and each potential Atlantic low seems to plough through Scotland in the 7-10 day range but as soon as it gets into the more reliable timeframe it simply disappears and gets absorbed into the main Atlantic trough. We have seen a quite unsettled Wednesday disappear from the output a couple of days ago and this morning the rain modelled for next Friday has met a similar fate.

UKMO

ECM

 

Quite good agreement on a spell of mostly dry weather from Tuesday through to next Saturday which would be the best effort so far this season with fairly warm air over the UK offering temperatures quite widely into the low twenties, possible mid to high twenties if we can draw up even warmer air from the south/south west.

 

Now next Sunday is the breakdown day according to the ECM, will that survive or will the Atlantic trough just keep barrelling around with no meaningful eastward progression.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SATURDAY JUNE 20TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Weak troughs will move East and SE across the UK today clearing to leave a developing ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain again while the North lies under a showery trough from off the Atlantic.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  A lot of dry and bright weather but somewhat more unsettled interludes too with some showers in places.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK weakening and breaking up through this week. Thereafter the flow buckles to more South to North or SW to NE orientationa across the UK strengthening again in Week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today always biasing the South for the better weather as a weak Westerly flow across the UK is maintained. A showery start to next week is then replaced by further showery troughs affecting the North at times while the South clings on to the better conditions with some warm sunshine and just isolated showers. Litttle changes in Week 2 with details irrelevant at this range but no dramatic weather shown for anywhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run preaches a similar pattern this morning with the North/South split even more enhanced with the added ingredient that the South at least could well become very warm and humid at times at through the period.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters still show the likelihood of High pressure out to the SW in two weeks time but this morning's crop of members largely suggest some greater influence of Low pressure to the North and NE on this morning's output.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a flat and slightly showery pattern in the early week but as Low pressure develops over the Atlantic it pumps up warm and humid conditions across Southern Britain from midweek.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex array of weak troughs crossing the UK from the NW or West at times, each bringing their own version of more cloud and occasional mostly light rain or showers as they pass with some dry and bright weather for all too in between.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows a sonewhat changeable period of weather over the next 10 days as shallow troughs and Lows continue to drift over the UK in a slack Westerly flow. A period of very warm and humid and largely dry weather is shown for the South though later next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a similar slack westerly through the period with days alternating between dry and bright weather and slighly more unsettled conditions with a little rain or showers. once again the South could become warm and humid for a day or so soon after midweek.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM this morning is also showing a similar pattern with the showery early week conditions giving way to a period of warm or in the South very warm SW winds and then a return to somewhat cooler and changeable Westerly winds over the last few days of the run with some rain at times for all by then.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows Low pressure out to the NW with a SW flow across Britain with the most likely scenario from this being rain at times chiefly in the North and West with a fair amount of dry and warm weather between more occasional rain across the South and East.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trends today seem relatively weak with alternating patterns between fine and dry and slightly more unsettled conditions particularly in the North still foremost

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.8 pts and GFS at 95.7 too. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 86.5 pts with GFS at 83.7 pts and UKMO at 83.0 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 50.8 over 44.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 30.1 pts to 19.4 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS Another set of output showing a generally flat pressure and weather pattern across the UK over the next few weeks. Conditions in any one place are determined where you are placed geographically acrosss the UK with 'South os best' looking the order of the periods weather. Of course there will be certain days which don't reflect this pattern as the synoptic pressure patterns driving our weather pattern are complex at the moment. High pressure remains close to the South at times and as well as bringing largely dry and fine conditions some very warm air could be drawn up across these regions for a time later next week. This will be interrupted by occasional cloudier days with some showers but a lot of fine weather overall should be maintained here. In the North more unsettled conditions are likely for more regular periods of time with rain at times and a cool breeze from the West. All in all a lot of benign conditions of weather to come with my overall opinion being one of 'OK and Useable' type of weather looking the most likely with the odd outbreak of rain or showers to moisten the gardens but no monsoon or heatwave in the forecast.

 

Next update from 08:00 Sunday June 21st 2015

[Nouska]

Last few days was definitely one of those occasions where you could say of the modelling..... "that doesn't look right".

 

All the energy from ex-Bill sweeping across the Atlantic but no ridging ahead of the system struck me as most unusual but then, I know little of the physics of the atmosphere - I use animation of shapes and colours to see patterns.

[Summer Sun]

For once even though we have northern blocking in place next week our weather after Monday looks settled and fairly warm for a large part of England and Wales, Scotland though, remains prone to some rain / showers as here your closer to some low pressure systems and the fronts associated with them

 

 

Looking at when the low may make inroads well its out at day 8 and 9 now

 

 

Looking closer at next week as I said further up Monday looks like a vile day in the south with some persistent rain for most of the day the gardens will welcome it though some patchy rain further north but the main focus this time is the south

 

 

By Tuesday the rain dies out and temperatures start to recover slowly

 

 

Maybe a few showers breaking out on Wednesday temperatures continue to rise, though not for parts of Scotland where it struggles to get into the teens for some

 

 

A similar picture Thursday with some afternoon showers possible

 

 

Friday sees the higher temps in the east with the risk of a more organized band of rain moving west to east during the day warm for NE Scotland as well

 

 

Warm again on Saturday, but with the risk of some afternoon showers

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Atlantic lows have slowed a tad such that the fronts don't move in until day 7/8 which as per the post above does mean some warmer temperatures for a few days.

 

Models then seem to agree on the Atlantic though GFS slows the low the most with a plume just about missing the UK.

 

[knocker]

According to this mornings anomalies the hot spell at the end of the month is still up for grabs. The GEFS is okay with the trough mid Atlantic and ridging over the UK but the ECM has trough slightly further east orientated SWS with no ridging over the UK thus the airflow more westerly and weather more unsettled.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm the 06z ensembles again suggesting something very warm or even hot developing in the extended range with a strong Euro ridge and a stalling Atlantic trough developing at the end of June/ start of July.

 

Looks isolated with the GEM ens going for a north/south split albeit still fairly warm. I would assume the ECM ens and the internal metoffice models are calling a westerly pattern dominating.

 

That said this evolution is one to watch with the strength of the jet usually quite weak at this time of year and as such a stalling pattern which could favour the UK could potentially happen.

Today's metoffice update seems more favourable, well at least for the south east where very warm and humid conditions could develop at times which is reflected in the output.

For London at least the ensemble mean is hovering around the 20-22C mark throughout the mid the latter range which would suggest that we should finally lose the cool north westerly winds with a more typical westerly or warm south to south westerly flow could develop from next week onwards. Some extreme outliers in there in the extended range, heh the control run was the extreme outlier  

 

06z ensembles - Ensemble members 8, 9 and 17 bring the 20C isotherm to the UK, with 8 bringing something akin to July 2006 in evolution, now back to reality.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Whilst a plume of that nature is unlikely, with a sustained mid Atlantic trough currently on the models, it remains on the table.