Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[knocker]

A snapshot of the last two GFS runs. Low pressure now reigns in Greenland. Any comments about taking too much notice of individual runs out in fairy land are superfluous.

Charts weatherbell

 

[bluearmy]

Is the 12z ECM op, one of those runs where the higher resolution makes too much of the upper feature and drives it through the ridge?

Await the 00z runs to find out

[Summer Sun]

If anyone is interested ECM precipitation charts are available on the site below

 

http://www.ipma.pt/en/otempo/prev.numerica/index.jsp#

 

Under Select Field click the drop down box and select precipitation

Edited June 13, 2015 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

Good evening folks, the ecm and gfs look like there Sniffing a change in the mid term, the Azores high has much less to play across the Uk by then, lets see what tomorrow brings......    

Edited June 13, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[phil nw.]

Still a wait for any noticeable heat and nationwide fine weather next week.

The Azores high does try to nose in but gets eroded from the Icelandic low pressure mid week-seen here on this evenings ECM/GFS charts for Weds, next.

 

weak frontal systems crossing the north with patchy rain for a time and cooler air.

Overall though a largely dry outlook with the best weather towards the south as is usual in this setup.Temperatures overall still not great with westerly winds off the Atlantic much of the time. 

 

Just looking further ahead I don.t think there should be any concerns re,Greenland heights,mentioned earlier.

All the mean outputs I have seen show the opposite in fact and this is evident again in todays ht anomal. forecast

 

Low pressure over Greenland/Iceland and +ve anomalies over NW Europe.

 

 

[William of Walworth]

That last anomoly chart posted by philnw above, looks slightly reassuring for more settled weather preferrers (especially in week 2!)

 

Am I right? I struggle sometimes to interpret.

Edited June 13, 2015 by William of Walworth

[knocker]

No you are correct and the GEFS and ECM ext for T288 although not exactly the same paint a similar picture. Can't post the ecm but it's much the same as the GEFS.

Edited June 13, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Are we seeing the ops beginning to play with the next broad pattern development? Not saying it will verify but the idea that the heights thrown up from the Azores ridge get far enough north to allow the Atlantic systems to undercut towards nw Europe from time to time would seem to be a possible way forward. at the moment, we see the Eastern European upper trough as a magnet for any Atlantic incursions as they tumble around the top of the East Atlantic high. It may be, that, as is usual for the time of year and the mean higher heights are able to get further north , so any upper troughing will be forced to come in beneath the ridging. not talking persistent troughing here so a generally decent outlook remains. I'm also speaking about the period beyond 10 days.

[summer blizzard]

Euro never quite collapses the Azores Ridge and rebuilds over the UK. 

 

GEM is similar but has more of an impact from the low to the east at day 8.

 

GFS has a very messy (so it won't happen like that) breakdown around day 9 (albeit we keep relatively warm uppers). 

 

[Summer Sun]

After a spell of high pressure during the week and unsettled weekends this may be about to change if UKMO is correct

 

[seaside 60]

After many weeks of speculation I am still waiting for the so called long ish settled hot spell.
Much like the winter, it just aint going to happen early this summer.

Recent years patterns seem to be later more settled summer conditions, its a carry on from this winter for sure of hope casting..

Many straw clutches going on with models trying to read weather patterns it just cant hold on to.

Edited June 14, 2015 by seaside 60

[bluearmy]

After many weeks of speculation I am still waiting for the so called long ish settled hot spell.

Much like the winter, it just aint going to happen early this summer.

Recent years patterns seem to be later more settled summer conditions, its a carry on from this winter for sure of hope casting..

Many straw clutches going on with models trying to read weather patterns it just cant hold on to.

Whilst the anomolys look good through week 1, it is true that week 2 looks a bit flacid and calling a prolonged settled period would be premature.

[mushymanrob]

After many weeks of speculation I am still waiting for the so called long ish settled hot spell.

Much like the winter, it just aint going to happen early this summer.

Recent years patterns seem to be later more settled summer conditions, its a carry on from this winter for sure of hope casting..

Many straw clutches going on with models trying to read weather patterns it just cant hold on to.

 

now if there was a large greenland high (which theres not) and a pretty fixed southerly tracking jet (which there is not) then to effectively 'write off summer' in mid june would have some credence, as strong patterns like that tend to last for some considerable time. but there isnt,. heat rarely happens in early summer, but most of the great spells start late june/early july. what we have seen are the (winter term) building blocks which are in place and could deliver.

what we DO have is a continued dallying with high pressure, we are still looking at a lot of dry reasonable average weather, we will get some very pleasant days, and whilst the current ops get real messy by next weekend, the ever reliable anomaly charts strongly suggest a reasonable spell of high pressure domination OVER the uk as we enter the last week in june.

see how the upper high drifts slowly eastwards to end up over us. these charts have been consistent in predicting this gradual evolution. i expect the operational models will soon become stronger and less messy, so by about the 25th, we should be right under high pressure, which should by dry, sunny and warm becoming hot.

that 8-14 day chart is about as good as it could get for summer.

Edited June 14, 2015 by mushymanrob

[seaside 60]

Thanks for the couple of good replies.

Decent summers are often later as Mushy mentions.
My problem is that several members give summaries of week 2 weather from the models and do a very good job.

However the models seem to be again pretty poor, as mentioned reading the  reviews I have been expecting several hot spells that were never going to happen.

So of course mr average reads these and then gets the "waste of time reading these" cause they often are so far from the truth.

Its very difficult to get a hold on the weather by reading in here sometimes, it seems more in the summer nowadays.

Personally I dont want high humid temps, 20/23c and cool nights is perfect with one mega hot day with thunderstorms.

Sorry I digress.

[mushymanrob]

Whilst the anomolys look good through week 1, it is true that week 2 looks a bit flacid and calling a prolonged settled period would be premature.

 

.... but week 2 noaa chart is great for settled weather, dont look flacid to me sir.  high bang on top of us!

[mushymanrob]

Thanks for the couple of good replies.

Decent summers are often later as Mushy mentions.

My problem is that several members give summaries of week 2 weather from the models and do a very good job.

However the models seem to be again pretty poor, as mentioned reading the  reviews I have been expecting several hot spells that were never going to happen.

So of course mr average reads these and then gets the "waste of time reading these" cause they often are so far from the truth.

Its very difficult to get a hold on the weather by reading in here sometimes, it seems more in the summer nowadays.

Personally I dont want high humid temps, 20/23c and cool nights is perfect with one mega hot day with thunderstorms.

Sorry I digress.

we have to remember that the models are only the lastest educated prediction, and week 2 on the ops are more often then not subject to change. so members posting these charts are showing what the models show, just remember its not set in stone!

and where would this forum be without speculating what the models suggest? lol

[bluearmy]

.... but week 2 noaa chart is great for settled weather, dont look flacid to me sir. high bang on top of us!

Rob, here are the Naefs 00z anomolys (days 8 and 14) which is where today's CPC chart will come from

There will definitely be a high anomoly across the UK but it won't be very strong. My point is that run by run, the upper ridge is becoming less marked as we head through week 2 and those weakish anomolys provide for some uncertainty although a positive anomoly of any kind over Europe is going to mean decent heights where they are shown.

.

Edited June 14, 2015 by bluearmy

[Captain Shortwave]

Looking at the models, it does suggest a mid to high latitude block could potentially form during the latter part of June near our locale, where about this forms will be crucial to how our weather pans out. The coming week look very pleasant at worst, but the warm air which comes in during the middle of the week could very well hold on over parts of the UK (this most likely in the south and south west of the UK). 

At the moment I feel the models will continue to struggle for consistency as the strong upstream jet drops in intensity and allows heights to ridge further north.

Again the temperatures could hit the mid or even high twenties in the east on Wednesday under a warm westerly flow.

Edited June 14, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[Winter Cold]

Well thats just typical of the world today isnt it.......

 

 

......... todays GFS 0z run sponsored by M&Ms!  

 

 

 

[johnholmes]

Just going to drop this in here as it is relevant to the period 5-6 days down the line as to what the weather pattern may be.

 

hope it makes for an interesting read, and please make comment about it.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=4834d1b1a7637fd8eb7444d53e16fe81

 

sum this up as

will the ridge be NW of the UK 6-10 days from now or over the UK or even somewhere over east/SE of us.

The 500mb upper air pattern discussion sun 14 june 2015.doc

Edited June 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[stodge]

Afternoon all

 

The NAO currently negative and perhaps no surprise to see a disappointing weekend certainly here in lowland East London:

 

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

 

However, the swing back into positive territory as pressure rises strongly from the south-west confirms the trend toward a much more settled and warmer week 

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015061406/gfs-0-78.png?6

 

As the Queen's coaches reaches the stands on the second day of Royal Ascot, it all looks very good with fine weather and a light W'ly so warm but not oppressively hot and humid.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015061406/gfs-0-126.png?6

 

The problem is as the LP skirts around the top of our HP, it heads into Scandinavia and stays there setting up a decent Scandinavian trough which holds our HP back to the west or south west and returns us to a NW'ly flow by the end of the week.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015061406/gfs-0-198.png?6

 

By the time the first match is starting on Centre Court, the NAO would be going sharply negative on that chart as the HP retreats north (which you don't see every day) and the trough extends west (ditto).

 

Into FI and the Centre Court roof might be closed quite often though one shouldn't be too IMBY-ish about it and the fact is FI looks very reasonable for much of the west and north of the British Isles with the HP trying to edge across from the NW.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015061406/gfs-1-348.png?6

 

All of that said, very modest 850s for the time of the year with even Europe cooling down and the +12c line back south of the Alps.

 

To be fair, a very long way out and plenty of time for alternative options to come forward. 

[Nouska]

For those of us who like to look at the broader brush ensemble anomalies, Levi Cowan's site has a useful function where one can toggle between models, time scales and past runs.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a5d&runtime=2015061406&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=261

 

I've got it set on the GFS but GEM and ECM also available in Ensemble header. Under climate, all the CFS runs are displayed.

[summer blizzard]

6z is not a good run, breaks down aggressively by day 7 and keeps a northerly of some kind going..

 

 

Euro ensemble mean by 9 goes neutral/col so it's interesting to see that the NOAA anomaly charts don't seem to be backing that or GFS ops. 

 

 

I doubt things will get bad myself but i suspect the current NOAA UK high charts won't come to fruition. I could be wrong though.

[Scorcher]

6z is not a good run, breaks down aggressively by day 7 and keeps a northerly of some kind going..

 

 

Euro ensemble mean by 9 goes neutral/col so it's interesting to see that the NOAA anomaly charts don't seem to be backing that or GFS ops. 

 

 

I doubt things will get bad myself but i suspect the current NOAA UK high charts won't come to fruition. I could be wrong though.

 

You have been continually pessimistic though for the last few days on this thread, and it is very easy to be selective about the charts you analyse and post if that is your mindset. Not many on here seem to pay much attention to the GFS 06Z and 18Z runs, which seem to me to be often overly progressive and inaccurate. 

[summer blizzard]

You have been continually pessimistic though for the last few days on this thread, and it is very easy to be selective about the charts you analyse and post if that is your mindset. Not many on here seem to pay much attention to the GFS 06Z and 18Z runs, which seem to me to be often overly progressive and inaccurate. 

 

I view all runs. The 12z and 0z runs have also been somewhat leaning away from a UK high until well into FI. 

 

Your right. In this instance i don't think the wider pattern supports a hot spell developing. Now some have disagreed and i could be wrong but right now we have somewhat atypical patterns globally in my opinion. 

 

It's not due to not wanting a UK high though.