Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[mushymanrob]

at 348h+ i really wouldnt get too concerned yet.

 

oh im not... yet.... but its something to watch over the next week or so to see if it gathers pace.

 

No sign of N. blocking on the 06 anomalies and frankly troughs in the NW would be more of a slight concern but nothing materialises in the ext period.

Charts weatherbell

 

hi knocks.... indeed but they are for t+240, the northern blocking was at t+300 plus.

 

The problem with the models is, I think, this: they go out for so far ahead that we all get over-excited or over-depressed about what they happen to indicate, depending upon our respective preferences...How many times has T+384 - or whatever -verified: 0?

 

of course they do! with 4 outputs a day a t+384 chart must become reality.... just not very often!

i like the 12z, and has support from the anoms, but if we could just get the high expected later next week to sit just to our east instead of our near west, we would be baking!

[ANYWEATHER]

Well the weekend does not look to warm  especially for England and Wales on Sunday. under that old frontal boundary. In fact if that chart verifies there could well be some record daytime lows    

[Winter Cold]

The Gfs 12z shows exciting weather is on the way for the south on friday, exciting for those of us who love thunderstorms, Friday brings storms galore across the south but they will be hit and miss, some areas will stay fine whilst others are at risk of flash flooding, and it will be very warm and humid in the south/southeast, generally mid to high 70's F and low 80's F for the far south. The heavy and thundery rain spreads northwards across england and Wales, becomes more organised and stalls across northern England and north wales where it gradually fizzles out on Saturday. High pressure dominates by next mon/tues with long sunny spells and becoming pleasantly warm again.

 

Saturday looks a bit bleak for our neck of the woods doesnt it Frosy. Very wet, breezy and cool!  Lets hope thats the last of the poor weather, because as you say things after this weekends antics look a lot better.

 

Becoming settled and warm with strong support from the ensembles for pressure to remain above 1020 from next monday pretty much to the end of the run, along with temps around 20C (seeing as GFS undercooks them a bit) so it looks great heading into the second half of June

 

   

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows the high re-establishing its self strongly next week temperatures should be in the high teens / low 20's maybe even the mid 20's for some parts if the 850's start and rise sufficiently

 

Edited June 10, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

 

Becoming settled and warm with strong support from the ensembles for pressure to remain above 1020 from next monday pretty much to the end of the run

Let's hope so Chris, I'm sure most of us on here would welcome a spell of settled and warm weather, the Ecm 12z looks very promising.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, well after the weekends mess, pressure starts to rise , but by T+168 Ecm and Gfs differ greatly......

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GEM make little to nothing of the low at day 7 and 8, JMA and GFS are more aggressive..

 

[bluearmy]

A long way to go before we find out if the high will retrogresses enough to allow the depression to make inroads into n of the UK. form would say yes but our luck has to change at some point. Still no sign that heights can get across into Eastern Europe. That upper trough is very stubborn this year.

[Frosty.]

This evenings GEFS 12z mean shows an increasingly settled outlook from the start of next week and gradually becoming warmer too as the Azores high builds towards the uk, the Gefs / ecm ens mean have been showing this for a few days now and for what it's worth, I think we are going to see a change for the better between mid / late June.

[William of Walworth]

Looking good to even better than good there Frosty, and I'd BANK that like you would!

 

But we have to hope there's not too much downgrade the nearer we get to week 2** ...

 

<**Somerset goers' paranoia showing there ... >

 

ETA though : J10's latest Glastonbury blog from today, full of anomoly-focussed and other technical analysis, might be well worth looking at (and positive!) for those generally interested in late June's prospects, as well as specifically ....

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4890-glastonbury-festival-2015-24-to-28-june-forecast-no-4/

 

The above not only of interest for festival-going people like me.

Edited June 10, 2015 by William of Walworth

[Frosty.]

Looking good to even better than good there Frosty, and I'd BANK that like you would!

Agreed, and I will also BANK the Ecm 12z ensemble mean which is showing increasingly settled and warmer weather next week, thanks to the Azores high.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Frosty.

[summer blizzard]

Ensembles look largely as you were to me. A stretched Azores ridge rather than a cut-off high. A nice pattern but nothing special. 

 

18z is another aggressive run keeping these lovely nights going..

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

GFS

 

UKMO

GEM

 

Looks like it will turn fine and warm by the middle of the week (possibly into the mid-twenties in the south under decent 850s and lighter winds). Still some differences between the models upstream with the UKMO potentially offering something better beyond day 6 as low heights try to dig south and become cut off in the Atlantic, the others persist with the pattern of the Azores high being just SW of the UK, though for the majority of the time it is fine and warm with limited cooler and mixed spells, that said the GFS does land a UK high in week two with a successful second attempt. All in all not a bad output this morning so far.

Edited June 11, 2015 by Captain shortwave

[shaky]

Day 6 charts

GFS

 

UKMO

GEM

 

Looks like it will turn fine and warm by the middle of the week (possibly into the mid-twenties in the south under decent 850s and lighter winds). Still some differences between the models upstream with the UKMO potentially offering something better beyond day 6 as low heights try to dig south and become cut off in the Atlantic, the others persist with the pattern of the Azores high being just SW of the UK, though for the majority of the time it is fine and warm with limited cooler and mixed spells, that said the GFS does land a UK high in week two with a successful second attempt. All in all not a bad output this morning so far.

good news is the high has been shunted northwards on the gfs which means its now coming in line with the ecm and ukmo slowly but surely!!!

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON THURSDAY JUNE 11TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure lies across Northern areas today with a thundery Low over France moving North into Southern Britain later tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow generally to the North of the UK and though undulating somewhat north and South through the two weeks it does more or less remain in situ as High pressure remains fairly close to the South of the UK for much of the time.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today is a nice run if it's fine and warm summer weather your after with the thundery Low pressure of the weekend moving away East by Monday and allowing High pressure to build over or just off shore of the UK delivering increasingly warm and sunny weather for many with just the North experiencing a Westerly breeze and cloudier skies for a while next week before these areas too come into the fine and warm weather too.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run is equally set fair with High pressure becoming under control of the UK weather from early next week and lasting through to the end of the period with some very warm and sunny weather at times especially in the South.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to have the greater chance of being dominant to the UK in 14 days time though there are some options that show some more unsettled weather possible from off the Atlantic.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows High pressure building strongly across the UK behind the thundery rain event at the weekend, settling over Southern Britain by midweek with fine and eventually warm weather developing for all but especially over the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the thundery Low over France edging up into Southern and central England before receding away East and SE again by the end of the weekend with a strong build of High pressure across the UK by Tuesday of next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM too shows High pressure building again next week, near Southern Britain with some fine and increasingly warm weather developing. Northern areas will still be affected by a Westerly breeze and more cloud and as a result cooler conditions but even here a lot of dry weather with the highest temperatures looking likely to be across the SW of Britain.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows High pressure out to the SW of the UK later next week with the weekend thundery rain clearing away to leave an improving picture next week with the South seeing the best of the improvements with fine and increasingly warm weather under variable cloud while the North sees more cloud and perhaps a little rain as troughs brush through.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM too has High pressure developing strongly across the British Isles through the early days of next week as the thundery Low pressure at the weekend weakens and moves away SE. It then largely remains in situ for the rest of the run with fine and warm summer weather for many areas as a result.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night remains encouraging for a sustained period of warm and sunny conditions under a tradiltional Summer ridge of High pressure stretching across the UK from the Azores.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has strengthend further for the UK to become strongly influenced by Summer High pressure over or close to the South of the UK in the mid term.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKMO at 95.7 pts and GFS at 95.4. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.9 pts with UKMO at 82.6 pts and GFS at 81.7 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.8 over 42.0. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.3 pts to 21.0 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models have strengthened their affirmation that High pressure is likely to lie across the UK next week with fine, sunny and very warm conditions looking very likely especially across the South and SW. Northern and NE areas may be at risk of somewhat cloudier Westerly or NW breezes and as a result somewhat cooler conditions at times but even here there is likely to be some fine and warm weather too. As an extension of the Azores High pressure this High pressure should contain more humid weather than of late and this should be most noticeable by night with some much warmer nights expected next week then many parts of the UK have experienced so far this season. After the thundery rain events of the coming few days there looks to be a famine in rain amounts thereafter especially in the South where some parts (going by this morning's output) could see the period up to the end of the run completely dry from Monday. Of course I muct add the caveat that though dry weather looks pretty guaranteed the positioning of the High will be instrumental into providing any one place with the highest temperatures but going on todays performance from the models the SW looks best favoured for this. It's nice to report on a set of models that more or less sing from the same hymn sheet and for once I think I can confidently say that the UK is heading for it's first spell of proper summer weather when we can share in all elements that fine weather can bring at this time of year and that includes high temperatures, something that has been sadly missing in the recent spell of good weather.

 

Next update from 08:00 Friday June 12th 2015

[Polar Maritime]

Yes some promising output this morning for Summer propper to arrive for the last 3rd of the Month, As High Pressure pushes further N/E over the UK.

[johnholmes]

nothing to add to the last post I made, 6-15 looking set fair, positioning of the surface high will govern amounts of cloud and temperature levels, That will come from the synoptic outputs and no doubt there will be variations between them.

[Summer Sun]

Lovely run from ECM this morning with the high re-establishing its self strongly next week after this weekends blip

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and GFS both now largely keep the high dominant. GEM is the most progressive run..

 

[tallsmithy]

 

 

Well the weekend does not look to warm  especially for England and Wales on Sunday. under that old frontal boundary. In fact if that chart verifies there could well be some record daytime lows    

Yup that looks pretty grim! I recall similar weather for the Queens Jubilee celebrations in June 2012 (i think some spectators got hypothermia!), or is this forecast worse??

Edited June 11, 2015 by tallsmithy

[Kentspur]

Perfect conditions then for my holiday to Devon next week:-) I do seem to get lucky with the weather down there like 2 years back when I went the last week of June:-)

What sort of temperatures would we be looking at?

[Summer Sun]

Big question marks over how far north the rain will get on Saturday the beeb last night had it stalling over northern England but GFS this morning has it stalling much further south

 

[William of Walworth]

Brief glance at the BBC forecast just now and it looks like it has changed somewhat -- reflecting the models? BBC shows it likely to be pretty wet here in South Wales both tomorrow (afternoon onwards) and for a fair deal of Saturday.

 

Dry Monday onwards though.

[Winter Cold]

Perfect conditions then for my holiday to Devon next week:-) I do seem to get lucky with the weather down there like 2 years back when I went the last week of June:-)

What sort of temperatures would we be looking at?

 

Heres the GFS ensembles from this mornings run for Devon. Looks to be slowly warming up next week as it goes on. Temps in the range of mid to high teens so provided the suns out and the wind is light then it should be very nice for you

 

Edited June 11, 2015 by Winter Cold

[Kentspur]

Sounds fine to me high teens in June always feels warmer than in later summer with the strong UV and longer days:-)

Thanks for that Winter Cold

Heres the GFS ensembles from this mornings run for Devon. Looks to be slowly warming up next week as it goes on. Temps in the range of mid to high teens so provided the suns out and the wind is light then it should be very nice for you