Model Output Discussion - 1st June 2015 12z--------->

[Frank Trough]

Agreed, but its still bizarre - to think we might have been hoping for those charts in January! 

 

nothing short of a channel low would do in January! But indeed, we *seem* (and my perception is probably wrong when the actual facts are explored) to have had a lot of cool days and northwest/north/northeast winds through may and the start of June.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows strong Azores high influence for the uk from the start of next week onwards, even more so than the 6z mean, the north of the UK would be settled at times but it's the south of the UK which would have the best of the weather between mid / late June...The current trend is good for those of us looking for fine and dry weather through the second half of June.

[Biggin]

Frosty posted charts for 2 weeks away above Karl83, but no one has questioned their validity, so are they OK because they show warm weather?

He posted a run of charts I believe, not the same as you putting your umbrella up now for something 2 weeks away. Have we met before ??

[knocker]

This evenings GEFS anomalies have the Azores HP beginning to flex it's muscles on Monday, consolidating by day ten and remaining so to the end of the ext period with perhaps some retrogression towards the end. Set dry and fair with temps below average initially but becoming average (above for a time in N. Scotland) until the end.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 9, 2015 by knocker

[summer blizzard]

The really interesting thing about the output at the moment is just how resolute the models are in not allowing the high to move east of the UK. It's something i've never seen in summer before. 

 

As for the models tonight, they all have something of a N/S split with a low brushing the UK at day 9 or 10. We seem to struggle to get properly warm upper air although i can't say i'm against the cold nights that may produce. 

 

GEM the most progressive.. GFS in low resolution has low pressure winning around day 13.

 

[snowy weather]

The really interesting thing about the output at the moment is just how resolute the models are in not allowing the high to move east of the UK. It's something i've never seen in summer before. 

 

As for the models tonight, they all have something of a N/S split with a low brushing the UK at day 9 or 10. We seem to struggle to get properly warm upper air although i can't say i'm against the cold nights that may produce. 

 

GEM the most progressive.. GFS in low resolution has low pressure winning around day 13.

 

What does it mean for the high pressure not being allowed to move to the east? Could it be due to el nino that it is so weird?

[Frosty.]

This evenings Ecm 12z shows high pressure building in nicely next week, initially on the cool side compared to what we will have in the next few days but temperatures recovering to pleasantly warm levels by day but nights look chilly where skies clear, cold enough for a touch of frost in prone locations but the main theme of next week and into the following week is becoming mainly dry with good sunny spells and light winds.

[Penrith Snow]

After an unsettled weekend UKMO and GFS both show things slowly improving early next week

 

 

The 850's will still be around zero to start with but given some sunshine and light winds it would feel pleasant enough by day though nights could still be on the chilly side

That's the problem, with 850's near zero nights are clear and cold but as sun as the sun comes up convection develops which leads to cloudy afternoons which is what has occurred this week.

Next week looks little better than this week at least in the north.

Crap summer.....Andy

[knocker]

Apart from a slight difference in orientation tonight's anomalies are similar and this continues into the ext period. So the theme is dry and average temps.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited June 9, 2015 by knocker

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows the Azores high building a strong ridge across the UK next week so there should be a change to mainly dry and fine weather with light winds, chilly nights under clear skies but after a cool start to next week, daytime maxima recovering to low 20's celsius in southern UK by the second half of next week, mid to high teens c further north.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON WEDNESDAY JUNE 10TH 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION High pressure will persist across Central Britain today with a thundery trough edging into SW England tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After a brief showery period settled and possibly very warm weather should return next week, especially in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the Northern arm of the Jet much weaker and lying to the North of the UK. The Southern arm will lie across the Mediterannean early next week while the Northern arm regroups to lie North of the UK again, sinking slowly South across the UK later next week before breaking up again through the rest of week 2.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational today again shows a move towards true Summer next week at least across Southern Britain as the thundery low pressure areas near Southern Britain over the weekend move away East and pressure builds across the South from the Azores. With warmer and humid air temperatures should be much higher than currently with plenty of warm sunshine with Northern areas though warmer less settled with a little rain at times. Late in the run another burst of thundery energy from the South is shown to affect the South of the UK despite High pressure being maintained close by to the South again later.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control run also shows a lot of High pressure based weather but after next weeks warmth from the Azores High it becomes less favourably positioned to ensure maintained warmth with cooler air shown back again with some showers at times in the second week

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today again show High pressue likely to lie out to the West and SW in two weeks time though with somewhat less vigour than yesterday showing more of a NW flow for many with a few showers possible especially across the North.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO shows thundery Low pressure clearing away East early next week as a ridge from the Azores High moves in by Tuesday. Low pressure out to the NW may affect the NW at times though by midweek next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate High pressure declining later this week as the UK becomes home to thundery Low pressure along with NW Eurpe in general before the NW show things cooling down again and clearing by the start of next week.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM today shows the thundery showery air at the weekend slowly replaced from the West by a ridge of High pressure. warm and eventually very warm weather reaches the South on this system after midweek with the North somewhat more cloudy and damp while all areas see a drop in temperatures somewhat by the end of the period though High pressure remaining well in control for all..

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows thundery Low pressure slowly exiting the SE early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure from the Azores sits on our doorstep by midweek next week with fine very warm and sunny weather in the South by the middle of next week.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM too shows showery thundery Low pressure edging into Southern Brtain at the end of the week lasting through the weekend before High pressure builds down from the NW to start next week and settles across the South delivering some very warm and sunny weather here while the North may turn more cloudy with a little rain in the far NW as fronts brush by to the North.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart from last night shows strong support for High pressure from the Azores to be ridged across the UK from the SW delivering fine, warm and sunny weather to many especially in the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for High pressure to re-establish across Southern Britain from the middle of next week, better positioned to deliver much warmer air than of late.

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The current verification statistics for the past 31 days shows ECM leading the way at 3 days with 96.7 pts followed by UKM at 95.6 pts and GFS at 95.3. At 5 days ECM  leads GFS at 85.6 pts with UKMO at 82.03pts and GFS at 81.1 pts. At 8 days ECM clocks in ahead of GFS at 47.7 over 42.1. Then at Day 10 ECM remains slightly ahead of GFS at 29.5 pts to 20.7 pts.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

 

MY THOUGHTS The models are continuing to develop a much more Summery look to them at last as the cool Northerly aspect wind and cool temperatures by night look to finally becoming a thing of the past next week as High pressure ridges up from the Azores across the Southern half of the UK at least. There is still some jostling around between the outputs on the overall longevity of this anticipated very warm period with some outputs indicating the chance that cooler and potentially showery air might return later but the ECM long term mean looks pretty solid on suggesting a very favourable position for the UK in 10 days and the GFS' s clusters aren't bad either with some sort of link between High pressure to the SW and a possible secondary build of pressure over Scandinavia. I must mention also that parts of the North may be on the fringes of this fine weather with some cloud and possible drizzly rain affecting the far NW at times later next week and this cooler air may extend further South at times through the second week but Eastern Scotland at least could benefit from very warm temperatures too in fohn effect conditions too for a time if things evolve as shown. While June is proving to be an OK sort of month so far in weather terms temperatures have never been that impressive and very low by night but I feel the bar is about to be raised and by the middle of next week it could be that two thirds of the UK at least could share some fine very warm days and warm nights with plenty of sunshine and the mostly dry start to June (after the first few days) look like being maintained with the exception of the local downpours of the coming days.

 

Next update from 08:00 Thursday June 11th 2015

[Summer Sun]

Friday could be the warmest day of the year in the UK with highs in the SE potentially reaching 27c or 28c and with some thunderstorms around its going to be a very humid day

 

 

By Saturday the rain moves further north where it's a lot fresher with temperatures in some places struggling to get into double figures fresher in the south as well, but the temps here still around 20c and with some sunshine it will be a pleasant day

 

 

Sunday is cooler for all with a lot of cloud and temperatures well below normal in some areas the southwest may be the exception with temps in the mid to high teens but elsewhere 11c to 13c looks the average

 

 

By Monday temperatures should be edging up slightly as the high begins to re-establish its self

 

 

Then from Tuesday temperatures rise towards the high teens and low 20's in some areas

 

[Milhouse]

Still the general picture around the middle of the month seems to be high pressure attempting to settle things down from the SW.

 

 

And 3 days on the timing of the arrival of HP hasnt really changed much.

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows strong support for the Azores high to build north east and extend a strong ridge across the UK during next week and into following week with increasingly warm, dry and sunny conditions spreading to most of the UK, especially the southern half.

[Milhouse]

Tuesday is the day we exchange the cool upper air to much warmer air from an Atlantic origin, although it will be interesting if what some have said about the below average SSTs in the Atlantic have any impact on the temperatures.

 

[MP-R]

In all the years i've been a weather model watcher i really can't recall a time when i seen predicted night time temperatures to ever be this low the week leading up to the Summer Solstice. According to the GFS 12Z Some areas could be seeing Temperatures 1 to 3 degrees BELOW freezing. Brrrr!!

 

 

 

 

These are just 3 examples, but to be honest there are many other nights too during the next 7 - 10 days when night time temperatures get significantly low for the time of year.

 

.....Time to dig out those Winter woollies!     Lol!

 

How low did it go in that northerly in June 2004? I remember the 18th-20th was particularly chilly, without checking my records I can't be sure but I'm sure we had a minimum of 5C down here on the 19th. As you say though, not your normal June weather.

 

My take on things is a brief unsettled blip from late Thursday to Saturday then settling down again but still not particularly warm unless you can cram yourself in a walled corner in the sun. Gradually warming up as the week goes on but with the threat of more unsettled weather the further north/northwest one goes. FI speaks for itself but there are still signs of a warmer final third to the month. Time will tell on that one.

[summer blizzard]

No change to the status quo in the models it seems. Euro still keeps us dry with cool upper air. GEM still a bit flatter. GFS has moved to be a bit more aggressive with the low at day 9 and eventually builds heights over Greenland. 

 

[mushymanrob]

No change to the status quo in the models it seems. Euro still keeps us dry with cool upper air. GEM still a bit flatter. GFS has moved to be a bit more aggressive with the low at day 9 and eventually builds heights over Greenland.

 

 

yes, i notced that too, and its not the first time the gfs has hinted at northern blocking.... a slightly worrying development as IF this occurs we could slip into a wet spell as the jet gets pushed south. a pattern we know all to well in some recent summers and one that tends to last for some time. that could (and i stress could) , rip the heart out of this summer.

[Milhouse]

 

yes, i notced that too, and its not the first time the gfs has hinted at northern blocking.... a slightly worrying development as IF this occurs we could slip into a wet spell as the jet gets pushed south. a pattern we know all to well in some recent summers and one that tends to last for some time. that could (and i stress could) , rip the heart out of this summer.

 

at 348h+ i really wouldnt get too concerned yet. Lots of dry and progressively warm weather to come next week. There is the chance of low pressure coming close to northern Britain late next week but its too far away to know exactly what influence this will have.

[knocker]

 

yes, i notced that too, and its not the first time the gfs has hinted at northern blocking.... a slightly worrying development as IF this occurs we could slip into a wet spell as the jet gets pushed south. a pattern we know all to well in some recent summers and one that tends to last for some time. that could (and i stress could) , rip the heart out of this summer.

 

No sign of N. blocking on the 06 anomalies and frankly troughs in the NW would be more of a slight concern but nothing materialises in the ext period.

Charts weatherbell

[Methuselah]

The problem with the models is, I think, this: they go out for so far ahead that we all get over-excited or over-depressed about what they happen to indicate, depending upon our respective preferences...How many times has T+384 - or whatever -verified: 0?

[johnholmes]

First post for some time. Only seen 3 days or so of anomaly charts but the 3 main ones seem fairly consistent with their pattern, so these are my notes written this morning.

 

Wed ec-gfs and both keep the idea of heights from sw/wsw much as noaa so I would plump for this upper pattern for the 6-12 maybe 15 day period; heights shown building off sw Alaska, if that follows the winter set up then height rises  in the Greenland area seem unlikely

and as usual the links that led me to post the above.

That is after the weather into and over this coming weekend which 'may' bring excitement to quite a few areas by the look of things. Don't expect it to occur in every back garden though, rainfall predictions even 12 hours out let alone further and storms even more so are notoriously difficult to get right.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[Summer Sun]

UKMO again shows an improving picture from Monday with high pressure re-establishing its self with temperatures getting back into the high teens maybe even low 20's for some spots

 

[Milhouse]

Hmmm, not the best GFS but out of the 3 models that have come out already it wants to drive low pressure the furthest south next week.

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows exciting weather is on the way for the south on friday, exciting for those of us who love thunderstorms, Friday brings storms galore across the south but they will be hit and miss, some areas will stay fine whilst others are at risk of flash flooding, and it will be very warm and humid in the south/southeast, generally mid to high 70's F and low 80's F for the far south. The heavy and thundery rain spreads northwards across england and Wales, becomes more organised and stalls across northern England and north wales where it gradually fizzles out on Saturday. High pressure dominates by next mon/tues with long sunny spells and becoming pleasantly warm again.

Edited June 10, 2015 by Frosty.