Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Gordon Webb]

any showers/storms don't look too widespread with them over London and more SE areas by evening and if you believe bbc graphics it's south of Birmingham ie more Central/southern England eastwards 

[William Grimsley]

Looking like I might be too far west again! But, defiinitely feeling oppressive out there without any sun and lightly drizzling. I think I may have a chance of seeing a heavy shower today with possibly some thunder.

Edited June 20, 2015 by William Grimsley

[Gordon Webb]

It's one of these days I think where some will see them but the Majority I suspect won't and even where they are seen I would have thought they won't be prolonged affairs anyway and also as a thundery showers is defined as a brief rainstorm with thunder it might be a case of one rumble and it's over 

Edited June 20, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[William Grimsley]

It's one of these days I think where some will see them but the Majority I suspect won't and even where they are seen I would have thought they won't be prolonged affairs anyway and also as a thundery showers is defined as a brief rainstorm with thunder it might be a case of one rumble and it's over 

Gordon, I understand you have a fear of thunderstorms but I think it may be an idea that you don't go on the forum as it will not help you. It's also quite a shame to see such negative posts on this thread. It may be an idea to find some help to try to reduce this fear.

[Gordon Webb]

Gordon, I understand you have a fear of thunderstorms but I think it may be an idea that you don't go on the forum as it will not help you. It's also quite a shame to see such negative posts on this thread. It may be an idea to find some help to try to reduce this fear.

 

I wasn't writing this post from a basis of fear or just to calm myself down I was stating my opinion on what might happen but thanks for the concern anyway 

Edited June 20, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[William Grimsley]

A few moderate showers now over central and northern Devon.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I wasn't writing this post from a basis of fear or just to calm myself down I was stating my opinion on what might happen but thanks for the concern anyway

But this mornings high res I know not to be taken seriously shows a large area of showers/tstorms

[Mapantz]

You'll do well to get any sunshine from this lot..

Still, it'll most likely be the late afternoon/early evening if anything does develop.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

You'll do well to get any sunshine from this lot..

Screenshot_2015-06-20-10-42-30.png

Still, it'll most likely be the late afternoon/early evening if anything does develop.

Sun's already been out here but yeah we need the longer clear slots now showing to move in

[BrickFielder]

 Broadly speaking not a huge difference in the modelling from yesterday. The upper cool dry air still swings across the UK, just with a slightly different orientation.

Vorticity charts suggest the leading edge of the trough is where developments should happen.

 

EUMetsat satellite pictures suggest the broad synopsis is correct with a small window where the sun should break through. I am not entirely convinced by the timing suggested by the NMM 00z model output based on precipitation not quite happening where it should at the moment. I think NMM may have moved things through a little too fast.

 

Considering the direction of the wind then I have suspicions that dewpoints may be a little over egged as well. Key areas suggested by the 00z nmm model are from somewhere just north of Worcester down to the south coast around mid day moving across to the south east by late afternoon.

 

Some things to note are  the increase in mid to upper wind speed shear from modelling yesterday and the small window of backed light surface winds.

 

In theory there is some significant potential today, but I just get the feeling something is a little off with the modelling. Probably best to now cast from radar rather than take much notice of the models. With weak instability there is still a possibility that there will be no storms today, all it takes is for dewpoints to be a little lower than forecast or for cloud cover to limit temperatures a touch for nothing to happen.

 

We will just have to wait a see.

[Gordon Webb]

But this mornings high res I know not to be taken seriously shows a large area of showers/tstorms

I assume you have to pay to access them and even I'm not going to do that

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I assume you have to pay to access them and even I'm not going to do that

No but as stated above they are sheer guidance

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Does anyone have any good tips for moving stubborn stratus cloud?

If we can get clear skies soon I can start getting excited. This is like ost year when storms moved down past High Wycombe and Reading and right over us. Perfect storm and arrived about midnight when it was nice and dark. In fact it was the storm where my sig was taken!

Looks like a similar situation - I hopes!

NB: the phone predictive text changed the word 'sig' to 'dog' - just to reassure people that my dog definitely wasn't taken during that storm!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Does anyone have any good tips for moving stubborn stratus cloud?

If we can get clear skies soon I can start getting excited. This is like ost year when storms moved down past High Wycombe and Reading and right over us. Perfect storm and arrived about midnight when it was nice and dark. In fact it was the storm where my sig was taken!

Looks like a similar situation - I hopes!

NB: the phone predictive text changed the word 'sig' to 'dog' - just to reassure people that my dog definitely wasn't taken during that storm!

Associated with the first front gotta get that pushed through to allow some heat in and then the second front moves through hoping to spark storms

..

Lol this is England though

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Yeah I thought so - just seems to be a lot of it and no break in sight at the moment. Frustrating cos if it was clear right now we would get some real nice energy build up for later...

We were going to have a BBQ later during the 'hot bit' but I don't want to get too invested in an activity in case I need to grab the camera and run!

[Supacell]

06z better for me imby but not going to pay too much attention and wait for signs on radar instead. I have my camera charged and free from 4.

[William Grimsley]

Looks like some sea breezes have developed on immediate coast to my south so convergence may help to give something?

[Gordon Webb]

Dull and drizzly here

[tomp456]

Normal service here.

 

Dull, muggy. Boring. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Showers already sparking in the clear gaps

[stainesbloke]

This cool, grey, drizzle is SO exciting lol,...wake me up if anything happens later.

[conor123]

Heavy downpour here, no thunder or anything but beasting down.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Dry here at the moment, met office app (for what it's worth!) shows hail showers in the next hour. Radar does show showers to my north and north west.

[Staffordshire]

Angry looking skies to my west

[Gordon Webb]

with these showers already coming not sure how much sunshine we're actually going to get here but overcast all day so far and is raining again now and these showers appearing to be be moving SE direction ever so slightly