Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[STORMGUY]

Lightning now coming into Munich

http://www.earthtv.com/en/camera-destination/munich-germany/live-stream/

[Dean E]

I too am unsure why imports have been so poor in recent years, with many storms dying a death over the channel. Something that was never a issue.

 

I myself am only 22, being a 90s kid I have fond memories of all night storms, especially 99/00/03/04 summers. Back then I was incredibly scared of storms, whenever one came I used to hide! Then as I grew older I was once on the way home from a holiday with the family in the car when we drove into a storm. I believe it was in 2005? But the rain was so heavy and lightning so bad, driving was impossible so we pulled over. i remember watching with amazement!

 

As others have said, we've had imports since then and being on the South coast, its always our best way to get storms. May 2011 was a very early in the year for a Spanish plume but great evening for storms, started around 7pm and went right on till 3am. Since then, we've had the occasional storm, but nothing like back in the early 2000s. 

 

Either something is effecting imports such as the channel these days, or like others have said, we might have just been lucky around 10 years ago with our summers!

 

2 full months and a half of summer heat and storm potential left, you could even throw in September to that if you like! 

[Convective]

We need a 'proper' Spanish Plume with low pressure situated southwest of us, and high to the east to give us that true conveyor belt set up. Not these two farty attempts we've had at one this year where only a handful of energy has made it as far north as Oxford at the most!

[Snowshine]

Everyone in England might as well join the No Storms Club! The next one isn't anytime soon.

But yeah, only homegrown storms seem to be the best (e.g. June 28, 2012). The channel is literally shooting storms before they reach the land. I feel this year will be extremely poor storm-wise, but a great year snow-wise (later in the year). Then again, I'm probably completely wrong and the outcome will be either an amazing storm-wise year and terrible snow-wise year or terrible snow-wise and storm-wise year.

[TropicThunder]

Seems to be a common theme among storm nuts that we were terrified of them as children!

 

 

2 full months and a half of summer heat and storm potential left, you could even throw in September to that if you like! 

I'd even throw in October, can't remember what year it was (think either 2012 or 2013) but it was recent, we had unusually high temperatures into the mid/high 20's which ended in a plume type scenario and gave us here one of our better storms in recent years, with almost constant thunder and lightning for a good hour or so in the evening. Not that I think a repeat is likely any time soon!

[10 Days Away]

Seems to be a common theme among storm nuts that we were terrified of them as children!

 

I'd even throw in October, can't remember what year it was (think either 2012 or 2013) but it was recent, we had unusually high temperatures into the mid/high 20's which ended in a plume type scenario and gave us here one of our better storms in recent years, with almost constant thunder and lightning for a good hour or so in the evening. Not that I think a repeat is likely any time soon!

Absolutely, I got this in Kent that month and was one of the better storms I have seen in my middle aged life. I don't normally follow the weather in Autumn and this came as a complete surprise !

 

I grabbed this screenshot as it scooted past me in Ashford

[poseidon]

Long way off, and probably won't materialise........

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Someone mentioned another plume event which is progged for near the end of the month?

(I am gripping my straw so tight it's giving me blisters)

Edited June 14, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Dami]

i read about 3 fine days and a thunderstorm from my childhood on another thread, where i lived you could almost count on it. These storms happened over night and woke you up, and living my the sea i had just great ones, purple lightning and some amazing clouds over the coast, massive towers.

 

Where i live now is a breeding ground for storms, many showers have past here only to turn into thunderstorm a few miles up the road, or often it would be clear here as in cloud all around and a 'you couldn't make it up' patch of clear sky above me, very much like friday was. Or watch a storm split then go back together once the cloud has past. 

 

I even saw a funnel over the downs once, remember my dad shouting to me and the storm after. 

 

I need another 28th june. TBH, sometimes watching the clouds form sometimes right over me and being able to watch the storm from a short distance is better than watching it getting wet.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

So I got one lightning shot from the thunderpocalyptic storm afternoon on Friday... 

 

I have posted both the original and a slightly photoshopped copy (just contrast and brightness altered a wee bit).

 

Surprised that I got it - there was only about 15 flashes in total and only 2 of thosewhere I actually saw anything!

 

 

 

 

[Spikecollie]

I had that great storm yesterday evening here in Haute Vienne, and then bloomin' more today. I set out to visit someone at about 1800, thinking that the sun looked like peeping out, and 10k down the road there was one almighty blinding flash and the torrents began. I ended up sitting in the car park of the nearest town, quivering from what felt like a near death experience. It's rattling down at the moment, and as I just said to my friend, I have a great entry for next year's Turner Prize - "Thunderstorm Rain on an Acrylic Porch" (TRAP makes it even better!!!)

[Panayiotis]

For me personally, I dont think anything is affecting our weather/imports in the past (pre-2000s) did we have this forum to discuss the failed imports? Obviously people will remember the successful imports and the others will dismiss/forget the failed ones.  

 

Last year we had imports to one of the greatest t/storms i've witnessed on 7th June, tracking them from Nantes at around 12am until they hit my location at 5am! 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOeaqAimkGk

Edited June 14, 2015 by Panayiotis

[STORMGUY]

Thunderstorm just started up over Munich,Germany.

http://www.wetter.com/wettercom-live/muenchen/51efa5fa990fd/

[honeyrose]

Don't usually post but was really looking forward to the widely forecast widespread thunderstorms in sw and sc england. In the end it was a bust (nothing at all in my part of SW London) despite all the eternal optimists here.  Consensus seems to be that the storms coming over from France were killed off by the cloud cover over the Channel preventing the heat from reaching them to fire them up. My question is, surely all those mega computers could have foreseen that cloud cover as a possibility. And can they not measure cloud as it develops.  I asked this question on another forum and was told noone saw it because it (the cloud) developed overnight.......You cannot be serious, Right?

Edited June 15, 2015 by honeyrose

[Supacell]

Don't usually post but was really looking forward to the widely forecast widespread thunderstorms in sw and sc england. In the end it was a bust (nothing at all in my part of SW London) despite all the eternal optimists here.  Consensus seems to be that the storms coming over from France were killed off by the cloud cover over the Channel preventing the heat from reaching them to fire them up. My question is, surely all those mega computers could have foreseen that cloud cover as a possibility. And can they not measure cloud as it develops.  I asked this question on another forum and was told noone saw it because it (the cloud) developed overnight.......You cannot be serious, Right?

 

I have bolded the word possibility as yes there was this possibility, which if you turn it around 180 degrees gives you the reason why all the forecasts said the possibility of thunderstorms. There were no forecasts that said a thunderstorm is a certainty. I do feel your pain, I am still getting over the disappointment myself, but unfortunately we cannot blame the forecasters, the mega computers or anything like that. It is just the unpredictability of the weather. I was optimistic myself but cloud cover spoilt the party for most.

 

Welcome to this part of the forum by the way, I am sure the successful plume will come eventually

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Been watching the Americas over the last few days and I must say some of the storms are monsters..

This one for instances Amy chasers on its south side need to be careful! 2 new cells fired up I'm minutes..

While I can't wait to chase out there it truly is a risky business..

[johnholmes]

Interesting item here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33136737

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting item here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-33136737

If anywhere was to be tornado alley, I'd say Lincolnshire and the fens would rank at the top. They seem to get the most from what I've witnessed over the years by quite some margin too. 

 

Heres a few examples:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/9359810/Tornado-sucks-up-caravan-with-man-inside-and-dumps-it-in-buffalo-paddock.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lincolnshire/4726237.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cambridgeshire/4726879.stm

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-401111/Four-injured-freak-tornado-strikes-Lincolnshire.html

http://www.sleafordstandard.co.uk/news/local/breaking-news-tornado-hits-sleaford-area-video-1-4001325

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2648809/Tornado-like-clouds-brew-Britain-weathermen-severe-storms-set-hit-country-weekend.html

http://www.elyonline.co.uk/archives/2005/05/31/ely-tornado/

Edited June 15, 2015 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

What's the likelihood of something this weekend - been following the model discussion but they are all a bit obsessed with the Greenland high movements ATM and no real detail on the nearer-term.

My netweather local forecast says storm risk for Friday. Is this anything to even remotely anticipate?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What's the likelihood of something this weekend - been following the model discussion but they are all a bit obsessed with the Greenland high movements ATM and no real detail on the nearer-term.

My netweather local forecast says storm risk for Friday. Is this anything to even remotely anticipate?

 

I was looking at the weekend and Monday so far away though no real chance yet..

 

 

 

 

 

Only thing currently showing 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I was looking at the weekend and Monday so far away though no real chance yet..

 

Only thing currently showing

Hmmm, but my local forecast now showing a 53% and lightning symbol for Saturday?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hmmm, but my local forecast now showing a 53% and lightning symbol for Saturday?

Watch this bring more than last Friday did lmfao

[Gordon Webb]

There's not really much of interest on the GFS 06z unfortunately, apart from an outrageous Spanish plume right out in the deepest depths of FI...

 

HGT.png Temps.png CAPE.png

 

if that's happens I'll eat 50 straw hats

[Supacell]

I wish as I am off work all that week, so could even head off to Belgium. Unfortunately much more chance of that not verifying than verifying. Looks like some weak pulse thundery showers possible over the weekend into next week though.

[Greeny]

if that's happens I'll eat 50 straw hats

Dunno if you'll find this interesting or not but I saw a lorry with the business name G.Webb on it on the way to London today and thought I'm sure thats Gordon's surname from the netweather forums. I missed the photo opportunity though.

Anyhow, back on topic I will not look too deeply into anything too far out and take each day as it comes, its not worth going through all that anticipation for nothing and.. I do have other hobbies I can be getting on with.

Edited June 16, 2015 by Greenday