Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Lauren]

I'm in Lindos

Much of the Aegean under estofex lvl 1 today, though not Rhodes which is surprisingly under 15% lightning risk (today is wedding day so just as well really - not mine I hasten to add)

 

The Cruise ship I was on a fortnight ago was docked in Rhodes yesterday where I was in September. It's like my last two holidays came together. Happy wedding wishes to the happy couple. Lindos is beautiful place to get married.

[timeless]

been looking at the forecasts for hereford, here is going for 0% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, MetO has however plastered thunder icons over parts of south wales and the west midlands from around 1 to 7pm... personally l dont want storms but am confused at why the MetO has been pretty liberal with the thunder symbols.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Typical a minor risk goes from a few hundred kjs of Cape and a Li of -1 to upgrade over night in one run to nearly 1000kjs of Cape and LI of -3

Watch tomorrow give more rumbles then last Friday lol!

[Harry]

Typical a minor risk goes from a few hundred kjs of Cape and a Li of -1 to upgrade over night in one run to nearly 1000kjs of Cape and LI of -3

Watch tomorrow give more rumbles then last Friday lol!

Oh well that's not good! I'm supposed to be landing at Stansted at 3pm!! Would be nice to have something rumbling away during the evening though

As for Lindos storms, not going to happen - think Lauren is bang on the money. Some cloud and marginal signs of mid-level instability but nothing firing until it reaches Turkey

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Here we go for tomorrow then...

 

 

 

 

Unstable conditions just still at 9pm

 

 

 

 

PPN well.. 

 

This suggests widespread showers..

 

 

 

 

EURO4s take on it is different..

 

 

 

 

 

Potent bit of PPN that on the last frame from the EURO4

 

Temps? 

 

19-23 degrees I think is a safe bet.. 

 

Trigger.. 

 

 

Serve weather risk: NILL

Thunderstorm risk: 20%

Showers with odd rumble: 50%

Hefty showers no thunder: 60%

Nothing: 90% LOL!

[Lauren]

Oh well that's not good! I'm supposed to be landing at Stansted at 3pm!! Would be nice to have something rumbling away during the evening though

As for Lindos storms, not going to happen - think Lauren is bang on the money. Some cloud and marginal signs of mid-level instability but nothing firing until it reaches Turkey

If you want an almost dead cert for storms overnight in Rhodes, go in April/May or late October. Was in neighbouring Kos one year in late October and got storms nearly every night!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

There was a water spout of coast of Greece the other day

[Lauren]

Greece has such a varied climate. Thunderstorms and waterspouts alog with scorching days are very common throughout the year in the North and Ionian, whereas they tend to (with exceptions) stick to quite specific times in the South and Dodecanese where Turkey tends to steal all the action during the typical summer months. I've got family in Thassos and that region all the way down Skiathos tends to be anybody's guess. Other than the height of summer, you can go from boiling hot one day, to constant storms, to windstorms, to quite chilly to boiling hot again in the space of 72 hours.

 

There is a joke amongst the locals there that Zeus is a woman in disguise because the weather (which he is overall God of) changes like a woman's moods. 

[BrickFielder]

  Saturday afternoon early thoughts.
 
  Model agreement is still a little elusive and I think this might be due to the amount of cloud cover forecast. Looking at the fax charts then a warm sector trough is quite often a good sign of thunderstorm potential. For me a key signal is the drier slightly cooler air coming in aloft.


  Dry air aloft can often make for strong updrafts and downdrafts, with better separation.I think there are hints of this on the 700hpa height vertical velocity charts.

  Mid level lapse rates are not that impressive, so instability will be a little limited.So much so that cloud cover could limit temperatures and hence convection.

  Some low level wind convergence is forecast in a few places which could help to concentrate storm potential and provide some low level wind shear.


  Winds at a high level are quite strong, but might give rise to anvils reaching out ahead of storms with a risk that instability is shut off.On the other hand it can also help with updraft and downdraft separation.

  Forecast SkewT's suggest relatively low cloud bases, moderately high 925hpa winds, so any convergence zones (I am not convinced at the moment) could provide some lifted low level vorticity.


  Key areas from this modelling run look to be parts of the midlands moving eastwards into the early evening.If those convergence zones materialize then there is a slight risk of a severe storm. With model agreement missing we should expect this modelling to be significantly out, so it is hard to assess at the moment other than to point broad factors. There have also be a number of occasions in the past where similar scenarios to those forecast produced no storms at all (Cloud cover prevents temperatures rising and dewpoints not as high as forecast). Once in a while it does come together to produce a severe storm.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Some other charts on tomorrow.. 

 

 

 

 

 

Even if nothing happens which the risk is pretty low and isolated be nice to see some cloud scapes again..

 

Hoping for not much cloud cover in the morning.. 

[Wivenswold]

I think a huge amount of caution is required here to stop building up anyone's hopes of a storm tomorrow. Showers, possibly thundery is the forecast.

 

My read of that is that a clap of thunder will be the exception rather than the rule.

 

That won't stop some bemoaning how their lives are ruined because they haven't had a proper storm for 12 months though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting. I'll be keeping my eye on this and may chase in the evening if I'm free and things are looking good!

[Wivenswold]

I think there will be better days for storm chasing than tomorrow. Unless you're going on a "Quite heavy but isolated shower chase".

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I think there will be better days for storm chasing than tomorrow. Unless you're going on a "Quite heavy but isolated shower chase".

Wouldn't bank on it the way this summer has gone so far lol.

[Gordon Webb]

latest news 24 forecast has heavy showers maybe even thunderstorms moving from wales across England eastwards during afternoon and evening but all depending on cloud cover sunshine amounts and high enough temperatures to start them off so serious amount of doubt whether they happen or not although the BBC have gone with a liberal amount of shower activity then again they did that this time last week as well and we all know what the cloud did to that

 

SO TO SUM UP EVERYTHING HAS TO BE RIGHT FOR THIS TO HAPPEN AND WILL NO DOUBT CHANGE AGAIN BY TOMORROW

Edited June 19, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[A.J]

forget models, the easiest and better way to forecast thunderstorms, and I believe it's so accurate, there is a paper currently in testing with the met office, is to watch the BBC Breakfast TV forecast with Carol Kirkwood....If she mentions the word 'humdinger' then thunderstorms will not happen 100%, and vice versa 

[Methuselah]

forget models, the easiest and better way to forecast thunderstorms, and I believe it's so accurate, there is a paper currently in testing with the met office, is to watch the BBC Breakfast TV forecast with Carol Kirkwood....If she mentions the word 'humdinger' then thunderstorms will not happen 100%, and vice versa 

Like this, aj? 

[Supacell]

I haven't even checked the charts but I will do in the morning. If by that time it looks good then I may start to get excited. I'm not travelling tomorrow though so unless there is something within a 20 mile radius of me then I'll see nothing.

I'm going to Slovenia next Sat for a few days so maybe I will see something there :-)

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Tomorrow will be a 'sit near a window with the Internet kind of chase' day - aka a 'snawwtikoc' day.

I'll be snawwtikoccing from about midday...

[stainesbloke]

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out. Some juicy convective rainfall would suffice for me (with sunshine too) and warm temps...anyone know when was the last time we had showers/storms from a warm sector trough?

[Harry]

Quite looking forward to tomorrow - I have to say in some ways days like tomorrow tend to be better than plumes, insofar as expectation is lower (as is disappointment) but often activity (potential) is much more widespread.

I am keeping my fingers crossed that I am landed and home safely before anything comes along. I should be home around 4:30ish if all goes to plan.

Based on the charts above my gut feeling tells me chances are better the further south and east you are, chiefly because cells or any linear features gather more pace and oomph as they travel over land, but also the drier slots to clear warm sector meh! should be further South.

Could be an interesting day

[Chris.R]

Couldn't be a worse setup hear for tomorrow. A NWerly/WNW flow, cold SSTs, suppressed air temps and stubborn cloud. Enjoy the cells in the south-east, again.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow pans out. Some juicy convective rainfall would suffice for me (with sunshine too) and warm temps...anyone know when was the last time we had showers/storms from a warm sector trough?

July 28th 2005 was definitely the case. But that was completely different as the motion was S-N clearance, not W-E. Plus what occurred on that day was truly exceptional.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like I might be well placed for radar watching and tidying the flat until something kicks off nearby :-D

[Supacell]

Providing the sun breaks through it would not take too much heating today to allow for some thunderstorms to develop across a large swathe of the southern half of the UK with forecasts still showing a trough feature running within the warm sector across southern England. The risk is from around mid afternoon across Wales and SW Midlands transferring eastwards through the late afternoon/evening. I would draw a line from the North Wales coastline across to Hull and say anywhere south of this line and northeast of Bristol. However, the best risk looks to be in the SE portion of this risk box and so Reading across to Essex and southwards. 

 

Deep layer shear is better further south and so a better chance of more organised storms here, although shear does improve further north from this evening. The problem would be if this coincides with or is just behind the best instability.

 

PWAT values quite high today so any storms that develop could drop quite a lot of rain in a short space of time, especially in the southern portion of the risk zone.