Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Despite the unforgivable lack of any real thundery activity I think the forecasters did well advising on what has turned out to be a torrential band of rain in the south. Seriously heavy rain - and loads of it!

Perhaps they need to update their view of what a thunderstorm is because of all the 4 cells I saw on radar this afternoon I reckon two of them could barely be considered thunderstorms and one definitely wasn't at all.

Either way I'm happy cos if it did all kick off I was ready to be there - and I learned an important lesson about storm snacks (to remember to buy some)!

Edited June 13, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[STORMGUY]

Heavy rain here........and  with the best chances for Birmingham still to come.....Just as we get into the `greatest potential storm threat period' 

 

Good forecast I`d say

There still chance to see a flash or to of lightning from this rain.

[ChezWeather]

Sferics picked up near Leicester, still some energy out there  

[timeless]

lm just curious about tomorrow, estofex has parts of southern/eastern england as well as parts south wales circled with a 15% chance of lightning.

 

l thought that diminished as the night went on. (not keen on lighting in my local area but do understand the draw of it) when not close to my computer equipment lol.. however looking at the gfs etc lm not sure how estofex works out tomorrows chances.

[STORMGUY]

Rain getting heavier now.

[Arnie Pie]

There still chance to see a flash or to of lightning from this rain.

Well their getting closer Stormguy....might have one from Tamworth, earlier on.....wont know untill finish streaming

 

still heavy .....big rain drops atm

 

Edit; strong echos to our West

Edited June 13, 2015 by Arnie Pie

[Panayiotis]

The EURO4 has the PPN correct for now and has it intensifying around 3am for the Midlands so something to keep an eye on, if yall still up 

Edited June 13, 2015 by Panayiotis

[UKSupercell]

Just hammered it down here. 

And on http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime - there's a strike near Aylesbury (if you load this quick enough it hasn't disappeared) 

I didn't hear anything though, I'm further south. 

Edited June 13, 2015 by UKSupercell

[Spikecollie]

Don't be disheartened, and be happy for what you got - and your day otherwise if you didn't get any notable weather. Remember you are in the UK on an island which does not have a continental climate - even being here in this part of France, extremes are rare, which is probably good!

[Sprites]

(Don't be disheartened, and be happy for what you got - and your day. Remember you are in the UK on an island which does not have a continental climate .

)

We won't forget that in a hurry, as we watch the storms carefully avoid the Island hahaha!

I did hear thunder yesterday, but it was far removed from a severe t.storm.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Sprites

[stainesbloke]

Don't be disheartened, and be happy for what you got - and your day otherwise if you didn't get any notable weather. Remember you are in the UK on an island which does not have a continental climate - even being here in this part of France, extremes are rare, which is probably good!

Lol, disheartened? Not really, I kind of expect a lack of notable weather these days. Of course we remember we are an island without a continental climate, the weather we get reminds us of this most days! My biggest gripe, however, is that in over 30 years of weather watching, I clearly remember that we often experienced notable weather! At least storms were a much more frequent event, especially in SE England where I grew up. The last decade has seen this regular feature of our weather just die away. As someone who absolutely loves a good storm and has witnessed countless superb ones IN THE UK, I'm quite perplexed by it.

I was talking about this with my best mate the other day. He has no interest in the weather at all but when I mentioned the lack of storms in recent years he starting reeling off memories of crazy storms that we experienced growing up, saying that we hadn't had weather like that for 'years'.

As for being grateful for being alive/for my day/etc then yes, that's always a good thing to try and feel. I'd imagine that's easier when battered by massive French storms on a daily basis lol!

Edited June 13, 2015 by stainesbloke

[Cyclonic]

I remember some good crazy storms back in the 80's, specially one in particular (was also living in kent at the time out in the sticks Cliffe Woods)

Was just lightning for hours and hours, i was sat on the old milk crates with my family just watching it :)

 

Yesterdays weather was just a blip, we will get some storms, Im glad the garden had a good watering, saves me doing it

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

My little chase wasn't too bad. Got as far as Thurrock, and observed the faintest of rumbles from that SE London storm. Back up the M11 it also turned eerily black as that ex French storm marched NW, unfortunately not with flying colours, but still, better than nothing. Was worth the little trip IMO . Let's hope for better luck and parameters next time.

[Weather-history]

Lol, disheartened? Not really, I kind of expect a lack of notable weather these days. Of course we remember we are an island without a continental climate, the weather we get reminds us of this most days! My biggest gripe, however, is that in over 30 years of weather watching, I clearly remember that we often experienced notable weather!

Hmm, it depends on what you mean by "notable". The stats say notable weather has increased in the last few years. April just gone was the sunniest on record, that was notable, the winter was sunniest on record, previous winter was wettest on record, etc...

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79294-some-notable-months-and-seasons-since-2006/

I think you might mean "dramatic". Continuous sunshine is not dramatic, frequent rain is not dramatic, the floods from it are but how many people actually suffer from flooding?

Edited June 13, 2015 by Weather-history

[Speedway Slider]

Sferics picked up near Leicester, still some energy out there

Yea, spotted that on Blitz, progged around 5/7 miles from my location, didn't see or hear a thing!!

Possibly a non-strike error??

[Supacell]

A little disappointed in yesterday but alas this is the uk and weather is unpredictable, especially storms.

I did see get myself just ahead of those storms across South London yesterday around 7pm, and was able to see one flash and rumble before it died. A lot of rain though, torrential for a time.

On balance it was much less than I had hoped for and in hindsight not worth the petrol I used but hindsight is a great thing isn't it. I can't win them all and I take some pride in that I made the most of a day that just didn't turn out as planned.

Thoroughly wet out there now and some showers to the south of the rain which are still quite pokey, but not thundery.

[Raidan]

To those who saw my post about the dog food bet I had with a friend well I won again we didn't get any storms like I said we wouldn't so all beers are on him the next time we're at the pub

[Gordon Webb]

To those who saw my post about the dog food bet I had with a friend well I won again we didn't get any storms like I said we wouldn't so all beers are on him the next time we're at the pub

 

you winalot so your pedigree chum is buying the drinks

[Carl46Wrexham]

you winalot so your pedigree chum is buying the drinks

Yep just to prove what a good Pal he is.

[sunnijim]

Hmm, it depends on what you mean by "notable". The stats say notable weather has increased in the last few years. April just gone was the sunniest on record, that was notable, the winter was sunniest on record, previous winter was wettest on record, etc...https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/79294-some-notable-months-and-seasons-since-2006/

I think you might mean "dramatic". Continuous sunshine is not dramatic, frequent rain is not dramatic, the floods from it are but how many people actually suffer from flooding?

I do concur with those that remember 'the good old days' of more dramatic weather.

Certainly thundery plumes used to work up from Spain on quite a regular basis in the summer months, you can argue that is still the case but the differance would be impacts over greater parts of Southern England not the far more likely 'kent clipper' if we are lucky of recent years. Storms would rumble on all night,perhaps with a gap at 2am -4am then a second 'wave' as the sun came up.

This is not rose tinted glasses, i kept a weather diary every day from the age of 10.

You could extend the argument to decent 'prolonged' snow events too.

It's no exageration to say the two dramatic weather types that most weather enthusiasts love seem to be a thing of near extinction for certain parts of the UK.

I know we are still capable of producing great thundery episodes in this Country for sure,but via the 'traditional' source,it seems less so.

Someone mentioned the Jet stream as a possible reason that 'plume' events get shunted East over the Low countries instead of setting up over our shores for a couple of days? Is the jet stronger in recent summers? Or is that an invalid argument...

[Spikecollie]

Yep just to prove what a good Pal he is.

And a good Chappie...

 

Looks like I'm in for some more storms today! I've got Meteo France's "Risque de grêle" symbol for afternoon and evening. I'll keep you posted.

Edited June 13, 2015 by Spikecollie

[TropicThunder]

I do concur with those that remember 'the good old days' of more dramatic weather.

Certainly thundery plumes used to work up from Spain on quite a regular basis in the summer months, you can argue that is still the case but the differance would be impacts over greater parts of Southern England not the far more likely 'kent clipper' if we are lucky of recent years. Storms would rumble on all night,perhaps with a gap at 2am -4am then a second 'wave' as the sun came up.

This is not rose tinted glasses, i kept a weather diary every day from the age of 10.

You could extend the argument to decent 'prolonged' snow events too.

It's no exageration to say the two dramatic weather types that most weather enthusiasts love seem to be a thing of near extinction for certain parts of the UK.

I know we are still capable of producing great thundery episodes in this Country for sure,but via the 'traditional' source,it seems less so.

Someone mentioned the Jet stream as a possible reason that 'plume' events get shunted East over the Low countries instead of setting up over our shores for a couple of days? Is the jet stronger in recent summers? Or is that an invalid argument...

Yes it's not just selective memory, I used to be terrified of thunderstorms when I was younger and remember numerous occasions hiding under the covers during the night while a storm raged outside. I can't remember the last time we had a proper overnight storm lasting for hours, it just doesn't seem to happen anymore, would love to know why.

 

Disappointed with the last 48 hours as I thought for once it all looked very favourable, particularly Thursday night with that big clump in the channel that then just fizzled out. Once again no storms here but glad for those that did get something, and we are still very early in the summer so plenty of time yet, here's hoping!

[Lauren]

I do concur with those that remember 'the good old days' of more dramatic weather.

Certainly thundery plumes used to work up from Spain on quite a regular basis in the summer months, you can argue that is still the case but the differance would be impacts over greater parts of Southern England not the far more likely 'kent clipper' if we are lucky of recent years. Storms would rumble on all night,perhaps with a gap at 2am -4am then a second 'wave' as the sun came up.

This is not rose tinted glasses, i kept a weather diary every day from the age of 10.

You could extend the argument to decent 'prolonged' snow events too.

It's no exageration to say the two dramatic weather types that most weather enthusiasts love seem to be a thing of near extinction for certain parts of the UK.

I know we are still capable of producing great thundery episodes in this Country for sure,but via the 'traditional' source,it seems less so.

Someone mentioned the Jet stream as a possible reason that 'plume' events get shunted East over the Low countries instead of setting up over our shores for a couple of days? Is the jet stronger in recent summers? Or is that an invalid argument...

 

If my memory serves me correctly though, before those imported plumes we had long periods of hot weather, often weeks at a time. I think that is what's missing. Rarely do we get such long periods of hot weather during the summer months. Indeed my weather diaries at the time nearly always mention the grass going yellow, weeks without rain etc followed by serious MCS.

[stainesbloke]

I do concur with those that remember 'the good old days' of more dramatic weather.

Certainly thundery plumes used to work up from Spain on quite a regular basis in the summer months, you can argue that is still the case but the differance would be impacts over greater parts of Southern England not the far more likely 'kent clipper' if we are lucky of recent years. Storms would rumble on all night,perhaps with a gap at 2am -4am then a second 'wave' as the sun came up.

This is not rose tinted glasses, i kept a weather diary every day from the age of 10.

You could extend the argument to decent 'prolonged' snow events too.

It's no exageration to say the two dramatic weather types that most weather enthusiasts love seem to be a thing of near extinction for certain parts of the UK.

I know we are still capable of producing great thundery episodes in this Country for sure,but via the 'traditional' source,it seems less so.

Someone mentioned the Jet stream as a possible reason that 'plume' events get shunted East over the Low countries instead of setting up over our shores for a couple of days? Is the jet stronger in recent summers? Or is that an invalid argument...

Yes, it is not the 'rose tinted glasses' syndrome to say that we used to experience more storms in decades gone by. It wasn't just the SE that had regular storms. And we didn't need plumes to generate them either! Often we would just get a storm at the end of a warm day. Nowadays, it's like pulling teeth. The best storms were usually during plume events, but as others have said, we'd have days or weeks of hot, sunny weather before a thundery breakdown, not the modern 24 hour or less, one warm-ish fine day and a drizzly kind of set up. It's difficult enough just to get some decent convective rainfall. Changes in the jet stream could indeed be the reason. It is incredibly disappointing from my personal point of view, as spring and summer are my favourite seasons and I love warmth and storms. Of course, it's only June 13th, so anything can change! Hopefully soon, as today's cloudy 15C isn't really doing it for me at all. Edited June 13, 2015 by stainesbloke

[MP-R]

Many plume/thunderstorm events I can remember in my lifetime came after only a few hot days, such as:

 

27th May 1999 - after one warm/hot day of 25C +/-

27th June 2001 - classic three fine days and a storm

04th July 2001 - another classic three days and a storm

17th May 2002 - often a forgotten one, after one day of heat on the 16th

03rd Aug 2004 - three fine days and a thunderstorm

30th Apr 2005 - early in the season and after two days of warmth and humidity

19th Jun 2005 - two fine days and a thunderstorm

31st Aug 2005 - three fine days and a thunderstorm (the week before had been quite autumnal)

10th May 2006 - not strictly a plume, but the first day of a few with temperatures in the low-mid 20s

02nd July 2006 - after a cooler period in June, three fine days and a thunderstorm

19th Jun 2007 - one-day wonder in an otherwise ordinary Atlantic period

09th May 2008 - three fine days and a thunderstorm

25th Jul 2008 - two fine days and a thunderstorm (the 28th was more impressive) 

25th Jun 2009 - three fine days and a thunderstorm

27th Jun 2011 - one day of proper heat on the 26th then bang

12th Aug 2012 - three fine days and a thunderstorm

 

I won't forget this event for a long time. So much hype yet so little delivery. Some forecasts said widespread thundery activity, others said extensive cloud cover. We all know the two hardly ever go together. I'm looking forward to a return of high pressure and sunshine and hope the next event either actually delivers or is a complete surprise.