Storm & Convective Discussion - 12th June 2015 onwards

[jessandjon]

No seriously!!! Just looked on Facebook and the town a few miles away is in the middle of a power cut now!!! It's exciting ;-)

[DAVID SNOW]

No seriously!!! Just looked on Facebook and the town a few miles away is in the middle of a power cut now!!! It's exciting ;-)

 Sorry! just my smutty school boy humour coming back

[Convective]

A few surprises for many tomorrow afternoon and evening, me thinks...

[Biggin]

The GFS indicative of the FAX, showery outbreaks developing along that trough on Wednesday..

 

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Whats the direction of that troughs movement ? Ta

[weatherobsuk]

I just noticed the rain up in Scotland in association with the warm-front, and what looks like convective rain breaking out towards Lincs. A good sign of things to come.

[Paul]

can anyone post any nmm charts!!!!are they still looking pretty tasty for storms?

 

You can view the Netwx model here - which is effectively a version of the NMM built for the UK. 

 

Short range - hi-res.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-sr;sess= 

 

Mid-range, lower res.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=netwx-mr;sess=

[Mapantz]

Whats the direction of that troughs movement ? Ta

Well, initially, east to west, with very little movement to begin with. It runs the whole length of the UK, down the western side. The trough looks to become more active later on Wednesday, particularly for the North & North West of England, and Southern Scotland. Incidentally, another trough shows down the East coast on Wednesday too. I didn't see it this morning, but, i may just have missed it.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Mapantz

[Biggin]

Well, initially, east to west, with very little movement to begin with. It runs the whole length of the UK, down the western side. The trough looks to become more active later on Wednesday, particularly for the North & North West of England, and Southern Scotland. Incidentally, another trough shows down the East coast on Wednesday too. I didn't see it this morning, but, i may just have missed it.

Ta East to West, Damn.

[Mapantz]

Ta East to West, Damn.

I wouldn't worry too much at this stage. I'd happily swap my location with you in regards to the end of the week.

[Tempest]

Can anyone tell me why there are no thunderstorms in Spain or France yet? If they have the heat that is supposed to reach us, surely the storms would be breaking out there by now or maybe its too early yet. Perhaps tomorrow?

[Ben Sainsbury]

Can anyone tell me why there are no thunderstorms in Spain or France yet? If they have the heat that is supposed to reach us, surely the storms would be breaking out there by now or maybe its too early yet. Perhaps tomorrow?

It's to do with the trigger/moisture. I'm sure they have a ton of instability but the air is extremely dry so without a front or any moisture no storms will set off.

[Tempest]

It's to do with the trigger/moisture. I'm sure they have a ton of instability but the air is extremely dry so without a front or any moisture no storms will set off.

Thanks Ben, for explaining that to me. I can stop chewin on my fingernails now

[Ben Sainsbury]

Thanks Ben, for explaining that to me. I can stop chewin on my fingernails now

Therefore we may begin to see a few storms appear France/Spain tomorrow, we shall see.

 

Along with the occasional ones up towards NW England.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Ben Sainsbury

[Mokidugway]

2100 Cape and li of -7 , on Wednesday ,would be nice to see it come off especially for the storm starved north west ....

[Ben Sainsbury]

2100 Cape and li of -7 , on Wednesday ,would be nice to see it come off especially for the storm starved north west ....

I'm really expecting some storms of quite intensity across the NW tomorrow and Wednesday, even BBC repeating the use of severe thunderstorms it's just a tease!

[bryan629]

Is this chart reliable at just 50 hours or so out.. 

could we expect a mass breakout of storms from this? 

 

 

 

[Tempest]

_{Hmmm. I'm not holding my breath now. It was looking good for my neck of the woods, but it seems to have moved more eastwards according to the storm risk map. Can't understand why it's showing 52% storm potential at 8am tomorrow on the weather forecast for my area though, as the storm risk map shows 0% potential. Anyone know which one gets updated first? Meteox doesn't give me a lot of hope either.}

Edited June 29, 2015 by Squall

[tomp456]

Is this chart reliable at just 50 hours or so out.. 

could we expect a mass breakout of storms from this? 

 

nmmuk-6-53-0.png

We will probably have to wait until the day arrives, then nowcast. 

 

As for a 'mass breakout' that would be great, but if something is too good to be true then it probably is

[IanR]

not having any of it lol,

 

 severe storms for nw England starting tommorrow evening , haha what a laugh , it really is too good to be true and probably is,     what I really expect is maybe an isloated thundery shower or two during the early morning running up the irish sea, or even over the greater manchester area (if we are lucky), then as the*thundery*  area moves east during the day is when the proper storms get going leaving the nw is slight cooler stable air later on wednseday ....  just me guessing at past experiences of the last few years,  i would put money on this boring senario for the nw 

 

if I am wrong can i have cream with my humble pie ...

[Biggin]

Good forecast on BBC just now for Wednesday, in SE, with Imports from france

[Harry]

It's to do with the trigger/moisture. I'm sure they have a ton of instability but the air is extremely dry so without a front or any moisture no storms will set off.

This isn't quite right, insofar as a lack of moisture would not aid instability (when you add the moisture below a lid of dry air and heat it, like a pressure cooker, you get the instability). I would say you are correct as regards the dry air over Spain hence lack of storms. When you get a Spanish Plume the instability is generated by the Spanish plateau and the Pyrenees to the north of Spain. The dry air is forced up over higher ground, while moisture feeds in underneath it from the Med and the Bay of Biscay. This then generates a huge pressure cooker over northern Spain, Portugal and in particular France. This drifts northwards or northeastwards - when a trough, front, jet streak, convergence zone or flabby low enables it to rocket up through the atmosphere, you get pretty active thunderstorms.

At the moment over France there is merely heat and instability - lacking is any real trigger to break the 'lid' of dry air to allow storms to develop - if you look at the FAX chart the fresher, dry air trigger is way out west so the pressure cooker simply builds. Through Wednesday and beyond the fresher air, fronts, troughs and flabby lows become more influential so expect some big storms to fire over the UK and France...triggers may not be present everywhere so the heat and humidity may just ebb away, while in other areas, torrential rain, frequent lightning and perhaps the odd funnel may occur.

Currently there is uncertainty in the models as to where those troughs might be, so doubt exists as to where the storms may be. Currently favoured appear to be C/N Wales, NW and N England (perhaps W Midlands and NI), S and C and E Scotland. Slim chance (I think) of potent imported storms across the SE early hours/morning of Thursday and perhaps some thundery showers from residual humidity during the early afternoon.

Question mark in the models currently as to whether the hot and humid air feeds back in Thursday night and Friday, enabling further risk of (potentially violent) storms spreading NW/N from the SE before clearing again through Saturday.

Without doubt a very exciting few days nationwide and it's going to be good fun trying to unpick the detail. Would suggest everybody gets the batteries charged whether camera, camcorder or smart phone as storms could crop just about anywhere

[Chris K]

Good forecast on BBC just now for Wednesday, in SE, with Imports from france

 

Yep the forecast looked good for more Northern areas, say North Wales, North midlands upwards heading NE for some storms to develop during Wednesday, with imports possible towards the evening & night heading up to the SE of England.

 

Unfortunately, not such a  great forecast for us further SW at the moment. But our local did say Friday night had potential for storms?

 

Nowcasting as always...

Edited June 29, 2015 by Chris K

[tomp456]

Going to go ahead and call a bust for my location and its surroundings for the rest of the week already. I know this isn't based on any science or anything close to resembling it, just experience. A few spits of rain maybe, and a few dark clouds. The decent stuff will be confined to the usual areas, namely France. 

 

 

(Getting in the reverse psychology early this time lol) 

 

The charts do look tasty though

[Harry]

Good forecast on BBC just now for Wednesday, in SE, with Imports from france

Indeed, though am always sceptical with imports. Happy to wait until Wednesday lunchtime before I get too carried away. These could easily slide just 50 or so miles further east sending them up the channel (or, not develop at all).

[Tempest]

What is it about the Solway Firth? Storms just seem to skirt around it all the time